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Angela Merkel For History

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If any speech by (still) German Chancellor Angela Merkel will go down in history, it will be the one she gave at the ceremony on the occasion of German Unification Day on Sunday, October 3, 2021. To be more precise: that speech is historical, not because of the usual phrases about democracy and freedom that are uttered on similar occasions, but because of the two, as she called them, personal episodes, based on which most of the German citizens living in its eastern part, the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) will view her as their true chancellor.

 Angela Merkel herself comes from East Germany. She played no role in the turmoil that preceded the fall of the regime in East Berlin and the unification of the two German states. She entered the federal government of Chancellor Kohl (the ‘Chancellor of Unification’) primarily because Kohl needed a younger cabinet member from the former GDR – to demonstrate unity. She has never spoken about how former citizens of the GDR are viewed in a united Germany, in fact in its western part, in political and media circles strongly colored by anti-communist tones and marked by discriminatory treatment (both direct and indirect) towards ‘those from the East’. Never – until now. And now she used her speech at the celebration of German Unity Day to show by personal example how far is Germany, mentally, still from true unity.

 She first cited one study in which she was described as someone ‘with the ballast of a 35-year-old GDR biography’, adding that she, of course, ‘could not immediately fit into the democratic currents of the Christian-democratic Party’. And she wondered, quite logically, whether this meant that all those who lived and worked at the time of the partition of Germany in its eastern part were permanently marked by such ‘ballast’. And does that mean that they have to permanently prove themselves as ‘good Germans’. Her short response was to quote a linguistic interpretation of the word ‘ballast’ which boils down to being a useless burden that can be discarded.

However, she did not stop there. She continued: “I am not saying this as a chancellor, but above all as a citizen from the East. As one of those 16 million who have lived their lives in the GDR, who have entered into German unity with their life stories and who are repeatedly confronted with such assessments. It’s as if life in the GDR means nothing. ” 

She then recalled the words of a journalist who attacked her, accusing her of ‘turning her back on Germany’ for her statement that Germany, which would have to apologize for the friendly reception of refugees, ‘is not her homeland’. The journalist added an assessment according to which these words show that she is not a ‘born’ citizen of a united Germany and a born European, but only – accustomed, trained. So she wondered if the citizens of Germany should really be divided into those who were probably born as true and good Germans and Europeans and those who had just been trained. Quote: “Are there two types of citizens of the Federal Republic and Europeans? The original ones and the trained ones who have to prove their affiliation over and over again, day by day, in order to fail the exam in one sentence at a press conference? ”

 In that context, she also mentioned the problems that many citizens of the GDR had to face after the unification, when they lost their jobs, and she mentioned that there were bad and good experiences from the time of the GDR. And this is, as far as this author knows, the first time that one of the politicians of a united Germany came out with the thesis that in the time of the German Democratic Republic (which was undoubtedly a one-party dictatorship and a police state) there were, or could be, positive experiences.

 In short: Angela Merkel spoke honestly and openly. And it was by no means just personal, it was high politics. She spoke about something that she was undoubtedly aware of for years and that she also undoubtedly felt as a burden (not only personal), but also as an element that stood in the way of full and true unification of Germany (we mean primarily people, citizens), more than three decades after that unification was formally implemented. And that is why her speech is historical, no matter how it would be interpreted later, no matter how much it would be quoted, or not quoted. She said what she said and she knew well what and why she was saying. And she received an unusually long round of applause, with everyone present, including President Steinmeier and party leaders, rising to their feet (standing ovation).

 The question remains, of course: why did she say all this only now? Probably because she is aware of the fact that decades of systematic demonization not only of the GDR (which with its regime gave more than enough reason for that anyway ), but also the very ideas of communism in the ideologically ‘washed’ western part of Germany bore fruit and the statements she made on Sunday, October 3, 2021, that is, the questions she posed in her speech that day, in recent years could have politically meant her death. So: pragmatism has kept her silent for years about something she saw and felt, and only the days after the election in which both her party (CDU) and the candidate she chose as her successor (Laschet) lost, those days finally gave her the freedom to say openly what she thinks. Just by the way: it doesn’t speak very positively about Western democracy, for which Churchill’s saying that ‘it’s not perfect, but it’s the best we have’ is so often and often quoted. And is it really best when a politician of Angela Merkel’s caliber has to wait for the end of her active political career to tell some notorious truths that many German citizens (those in the East certainly) are aware of, but are silent about? 

 It is impossible not to draw a parallel with small states that emerged on the soil of the destroyed Yugoslavia (without putting a sign of equality between them). Isn’t every individual’s career achieved in the time of Yugoslavia, a ‘Yugoslav biography’, seen as the ballast? Unless, of course, that individual was ‘smart’ enough, or politically fickle, and declared himself a nationalist from time immemorial and a hater of Yugoslavia who, as a member of the League of Communists, ‘undermined her from within’. Here, too, everyone who would dare to say that it is not only important to have an independent state, but to question the character of such a state, would be seen as someone who has turned his/her back on his/her homeland. Are all those who, at least in a low voice, say that in Yugoslavia, that is, in former Yugoslav republics, there were also positive things, that there are positive experiences from that time from which one could (better said: from which one had to) learn, not labeled as ‘Yugonostalgists’? And that is the first stage of political or social defamation. Isn’t there a sharp division in society between those who have unconditionally accepted the so-called new historical narrative (a blatant lie about the past, in other words) and those who still in a ‘donquihotian’ way today insist on facts supported by evidence, documents, testimonies, in short: on historical truth?

 Aren’t there differences, for example in Croatia, between Croats who lived and worked in Croatia during Yugoslavia (let’s leave aside the already mentioned ‘runners’ from one political camp into another) and those Croats who came from the so-called diaspora, those who (or their ancestors), according to one former Croatian President, sought a space of freedom there (while it is true that they fled fearing persecution for the crimes of the Ustasha quisling state, or terrorist activities that are now affectionately called ‘guerrillas’ in Yugoslavia after 1945, and the protagonists of that terrorism – ‘patriots’ and ‘victims of communism’?)

Is anyone at all seriously taken if he (or she) says that the Yugoslav model of socialism was significantly different from that practiced in the Eastern Bloc? That Yugoslavia, or Croatia, or Serbia, or Bosnia and Herzegovina as parts of Yugoslavia, not only were not the same, but could not be compared with Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, especially the GDR of that time? No, this would not be taken seriously, to say the least, because Croatia had a President who claimed that Yugoslavia was behind the ‘Iron Curtain’, and now has a foreign minister who claims that Croats lived in a kind of slavery during Yugoslavia and that to say ‘I am a Croat’ at that time – was dangerous.

For actors on the political scene of Southeast European countries it would be more than useful to read Angela Merkel’s speech. And especially to think about it. Finally, it was uttered by a politician whom all of them condescendingly (and some with vain arrogance) treated as ‘the most powerful woman in the world’. We consciously call them actors, because there are no real politicians in the countries of former Yugoslavia today. Consequently, there is not, nor will there be in the foreseeable future, anyone who, even at the end of his/her career, would dare to say what the German Chancellor said in her not last, but the only truly historical speech.

Angela Merkel told the truth, And the truth does not live in today’s politics, although it will not fade in spite of all who oppress it. Someday there will be someone, not anyone, but someone relevant who will utter it. Just as the German Chancellor did, who, more than with anything else she has done in her long term, has thus opened the door to history for herself.

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Iceland’s Historic(al) Elections

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The morning of September, 26 was a good one for Lenya Run Karim of the Pirate Party. Once the preliminary results were announced, things were clear: the 21-year-old law student of the University of Iceland, originating from a Kurdish immigrant family, had become the youngest MP in the country’s history.

In historical significance, however, this event was second to another. Iceland, the world champion in terms of gender equality, became the first country in Europe to have more women MPs than men, 33 versus 30. The news immediately made world headlines: only five countries in the world have achieved such impressive results. Remarkably, all are non-European: Rwanda, Nicaragua and Cuba have a majority of women in parliament, while Mexico and the UAE have an equal number of male and female MPs.

Nine hours later, news agencies around the world had to edit their headlines. The recount in the Northwest constituency affected the outcome across the country to delay the ‘triumph for women’ for another four years.

Small numbers, big changes

The Icelandic electoral system is designed so that 54 out of the 63 seats in the Althingi, the national parliament, are primary or constituency seats, while another nine are equalization seats. Only parties passing the 5 per cent threshold are allowed to distribute equalisation seats that go to the candidates who failed to win constituency mandates and received the most votes in their constituency. However, the number of equalisation mandates in each of the 6 constituencies is legislated. In theory, this could lead to a situation in which the leading party candidate in one constituency may simply lack an equalisation mandate, so the leading candidate of the same party—but in another constituency—receives it.

This is what happened this year. Because of a difference of only ten votes between the Reform Party and the Pirate Party, both vying for the only equalisation mandate in the Northwest, the constituency’s electoral commission announced a recount on its own initiative. There were also questions concerning the counting procedure as such: the ballots were not sealed but simply locked in a Borgarnes hotel room. The updated results hardly affected the distribution of seats between the parties, bringing in five new MPs, none of whom were women, with the 21-year-old Lenya Run Karim replaced by her 52-year-old party colleague.

In the afternoon of September, 27, at the request of the Left-Green Movement, supported by the Independence Party, the Pirates and the Reform Party, the commission in the South announced a recount of their own—the difference between the Left-Greens and the Centrists was only seven votes. There was no ‘domino effect’, as in the case of the Northwest, as the five-hour recount showed the same result. Recounts in other districts are unlikely, nor is it likely that Althingi—vested with the power to declare the elections valid—would invalidate the results in the Northwest. Nevertheless, the ‘replaced’ candidates have already announced their intention to appeal against the results, citing violations of ballot storage procedures. Under the Icelandic law, this is quite enough to invalidate the results and call a re-election in the Northwest, as the Supreme Court of Iceland invalidated the Constitutional Council elections due to a breach of procedure 10 years ago. Be that as it may, the current score remains 33:30, in favor of men.

Progressives’ progress and threshold for socialists

On the whole, there were no surprises: the provisional allocation of mandates resembles, if with minor changes, the opinion polls on the eve of the election.

The ruling three-party coalition has rejuvenated its position, winning 37 out of the 63 Althingi seats. The centrist Progressive Party saw a real electoral triumph, improving its 2017 result by five seats. Prime-minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir’s Left-Green Movement, albeit with a slight loss, won eight seats, surpassing all pre-election expectations. Although the centre-right Independence Party outperformed everyone again to win almost a quarter of all votes, 16 seats are one of the worst results of the Icelandic ‘Grand Old Party’ ever.

The results of the Social-Democrats, almost 10% versus 12.1% in 2017, and of the Pirates, 8.6% versus 9.2%, have deteriorated. Support for the Centre Party of Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson, former prime-minister and victim of the Panama Papers, has halved from 10.9% to 5.4%. The centrists have seen a steady decline in recent years, largely due to a sexist scandal involving party MPs. The populist People’s Party and the pro-European Reform Party have seen gains of 8.8% and 8.3%, as compared to 6.9% and 6.7% in the previous elections.

Of the leading Icelandic parties, only the Socialist Party failed to pass the 5 per cent threshold: despite a rating above 7% in August, the Socialists received only 4.1% of the vote.

Coronavirus, climate & economy

Healthcare and the fight against COVID-19 was, expectedly, on top of the agenda of the elections: 72% of voters ranked it as the defining issue, according to a Fréttablaðið poll. Thanks to swift and stringent measures, the Icelandic government brought the coronavirus under control from day one, and the country has enjoyed one of the lowest infection rates in the world for most of the time. At the same time, the pandemic exposed a number of problems in the national healthcare system: staff shortages, low salaries and long waiting lists for emergency surgery.

Climate change, which Icelanders are already experiencing, was an equally important topic. This summer, the temperature has not dropped below 20°C for 59 days, an anomaly for a North-Atlantic island. However, Icelanders’ concerns never converted into increased support for the four left-leaning parties advocating greater reductions in CO2 emission than the country has committed to under the Paris Agreement: their combined result fell by 0.5%.

The economy and employment were also among the main issues in this election. The pandemic has severely damaged the island nation’s economy, which is heavily tourism-reliant—perhaps, unsurprisingly, many Icelanders are in favor of reviving the tourism sector as well as diversifying the economy further.

The EU membership, by far a ‘traditional’ issue in Icelandic politics, is unlikely to be featured on the agenda of the newly-elected parliament as the combined result of the Eurosceptics, despite a loss of 4%, still exceeds half of the overall votes. The new Althingi will probably face the issue of constitutional reform once again, which is only becoming more topical in the light of the pandemic and the equalization mandates story.

New (old) government?

The parties are to negotiate coalition formation. The most likely scenario now is that the ruling coalition of the Independence Party, the Left-Greens and the Progressives continues. It has been the most ideologically diverse and the first three-party coalition in Iceland’s history to last a full term. A successful fight against the pandemic has only strengthened its positions and helped it secure additional votes. Independence Party leader and finance minister Bjarni Benediktsson has earlier said he would be prepared to keep the ruling coalition if it holds the majority. President Guðni Jóhannesson announced immediately after the elections that he would confirm the mandate of the ruling coalition to form a new government if the three parties could strike a deal.

Other developments are possible but unlikely. Should the Left-Greens decide to leave the coalition, they could be replaced by the Reform Party or the People’s Party, while any coalition without the Independence Party can only be a four-party or larger coalition.

Who will become the new prime-minister still remains to be seen—but if the ruling coalition remains in place, the current prime-minister and leader of the Left-Greens, Katrín Jakobsdóttir, stands a good chance of keeping her post: she is still the most popular politician in Iceland with a 40 per cent approval rate.

The 2021 Althingi election, with one of the lowest turnouts in history at 80.1%, has not produced a clear winner. The election results reflect a Europe-wide trend in which traditional “major” parties are losing support. The electorate is fragmenting and their votes are pulled by smaller new parties. The coronavirus pandemic has only reinforced this trend.

The 2021 campaign did not foreshadow a sensation. Although Iceland has not become the first European country with a women’s majority in parliament, these elections will certainly go down in history as a test of Icelanders’ trust to their own democracy.

From our partner RIAC

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EU-Balkan Summit: No Set Timeframe for Western Balkans Accession

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From left to right: Janez JANŠA (Prime Minister, Slovenia), Charles MICHEL (President of the European Council), Ursula VON DER LEYEN (President of the European Commission) Copyright: European Union

On October 6, Slovenia hosted a summit between the EU and the Western Balkans states. The EU-27 met with their counterparts (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Kosovo) in the sumptuous Renaissance setting of Brdo Castle, 30 kilometers north of the capital, Ljubljana. Despite calls from a minority of heads of state and government, there were no sign of a breakthrough on the sensitive issue of enlargement. The accession of these countries to the European Union is still not unanimous among the 27 EU member states.

During her final tour of the Balkans three weeks ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that the peninsula’s integration was of “geostrategic” importance. On the eve of the summit, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz backed Slovenia’s goal of integrating this zone’s countries into the EU by 2030.

However, the unanimity required to begin the hard negotiations is still a long way off, even for the most advanced countries in the accession process, Albania and North Macedonia. Bulgaria, which is already a member of the EU, is opposing North Macedonia’s admission due to linguistic and cultural differences. Since Yugoslavia’s demise, Sofia has rejected the concept of Macedonian language, insisting that it is a Bulgarian dialect, and has condemned the artificial construction of a distinct national identity.

Other countries’ reluctance to join quickly is of a different nature. France and the Netherlands believe that previous enlargements (Bulgaria and Romania in 2007) have resulted in changes that must first be digested before the next round of enlargement. The EU-27 also demand that all necessary prior guarantees be provided regarding the independence of the judiciary and the fight against corruption in these countries. Despite the fact that press freedom is a requirement for membership, the NGO Reporters Without Borders (RSF) urged the EU to make “support for investigative and professional journalism” a key issue at the summit.”

While the EU-27 have not met since June, the topic of Western Balkans integration is competing with other top priorities in the run-up to France’s presidency of the EU in the first half of 2022. On the eve of the summit, a working dinner will be held, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called for “a strategic discussion on the role of the Union on the international scene” in his letter of invitation to the EU-Balkans Summit, citing “recent developments in Afghanistan,” the announcement of the AUKUS pact between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, which has enraged Paris.

The Western Balkans remain the focal point of an international game of influence in which the Europeans seek to maintain their dominance. As a result, the importance of reaffirming a “European perspective” at the summit was not an overstatement. Faced with the more frequent incursion of China, Russia, and Turkey in that European region, the EU has pledged a 30 billion euro Economic and Investment Plan for 2021-2027, as well as increased cooperation, particularly to deal with the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Opening the borders, however, is out of the question. In the absence of progress on this issue, Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia have decided to establish their own zone of free movement (The Balkans are Open”) beginning January 1, 2023. “We are starting today to do in the region what we will do tomorrow in the EU,” said Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama when the agreement was signed last July.

This initiative, launched in 2019 under the name “Mini-Schengen” and based on a 1990s idea, does not have the support of the entire peninsular region, which remains deeply divided over this project. While Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro are not refusing to be a part of it and are open to discussions, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who took office in 2020, for his part accuses Serbia of relying on this project to recreate “a fourth Yugoslavia”

Tensions between Balkan countries continue to be an impediment to European integration. The issue of movement between Kosovo and Serbia has been a source of concern since the end of September. Two weeks of escalation followed Kosovo’s decision to prohibit cars with Serbian license plates from entering its territory, in response to Serbia’s long-standing prohibition on allowing vehicles to pass in the opposite direction.

In response to the mobilization of Kosovar police to block the road, Serbs in Kosovo blocked roads to their towns and villages, and Serbia deployed tanks and the air force near the border. On Sunday, October 3, the conflict seemed to be over, and the roads were reopened. However, the tone had been set three days before the EU-Balkans summit.

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German Election: Ramifications for the US Foreign Policy

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Image source: twitter @OlafScholz

In the recent German election, foreign policy was scarcely an issue. But Germany is an important element in the US foreign policy. There is a number of cases where Germany and the US can cooperate, but all of these dynamics are going to change very soon.

The Germans’ strategic culture makes it hard to be aligned perfectly with the US and disagreements can easily damage the relations. After the tension between the two countries over the Iraq war, in 2003, Henry Kissinger said that he could not imagine the relations between Germany and the US could be aggravated so quickly, so easily, which might end up being the “permanent temptation of German politics”. For a long time, the US used to provide security for Germany during the Cold War and beyond, so, several generations are used to take peace for granted. But recently, there is a growing demand on them to carry more burden, not just for their own security, but for international peace and stability. This demand was not well-received in Berlin.

Then, the environment around Germany changed and new threats loomed up in front of them. The great powers’ competition became the main theme in international relations. Still, Germany was not and is not ready for shouldering more responsibility. Politicians know this very well. Ursula von der Leyen, who was German defense minister, asked terms like “nuclear weapons” and “deterrence” be removed from her speeches.

Although on paper, all major parties appreciate the importance of Germany’s relations with the US, the Greens and SPD ask for a reset in the relations. The Greens insist on the European way in transatlantic relations and SPD seeks more multilateralism. Therefore, alignment may be harder to maintain in the future. However, If the tensions between the US and China heat up to melting degrees, then external pressure can overrule the internal pressure and Germany may accede to its transatlantic partners, just like when Helmut Schmid let NATO install medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe after the Soviet Union attacked Afghanistan and the Cold War heated up.

According to the election results, now three coalitions are possible: grand coalition with CDU/CSU and SPD, traffic lights coalition with SPD, FDP, and Greens, Jamaica coalition with CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens. Jamaica coalition will more likely form the most favorable government for the US because it has both CDU and FDP, and traffic lights will be the least favorite as it has SPD. The grand coalition can maintain the status quo at best, because contrary to the current government, SPD will dominate CDU.

To understand nuances, we need to go over security issues to see how these coalitions will react to them. As far as Russia is concerned, none of them will recognize the annexation of Crimea and they all support related sanctions. However, if tensions heat up, any coalition government with SPD will be less likely assertive. On the other hand, as the Greens stress the importance of European values like democracy and human rights, they tend to be more assertive if the US formulates its foreign policy by these common values and describe US-China rivalry as a clash between democracy and authoritarianism. Moreover, the Greens disapprove of the Nordstream project, of course not for its geopolitics. FDP has also sided against it for a different reason. So, the US must follow closely the negotiations which have already started between anti-Russian smaller parties versus major parties.

For relations with China, pro-business FDP is less assertive. They are seeking for developing EU-China relations and deepening economic ties and civil society relations. While CDU/CSU and Greens see China as a competitor, partner, and systemic rival, SPD and FDP have still hopes that they can bring change through the exchange. Thus, the US might have bigger problems with the traffic lights coalition than the Jamaica coalition in this regard.

As for NATO and its 2 percent of GDP, the division is wider. CDU/CSU and FDP are the only parties who support it. So, in the next government, it might be harder to persuade them to pay more. Finally, for nuclear participation, the situation is the same. CDU/CSU is the only party that argues for it. This makes it an alarming situation because the next government has to decide on replacing Germany’s tornados until 2024, otherwise Germany will drop out of the NATO nuclear participation.

The below table gives a brief review of these three coalitions. 1 indicates the lowest level of favoritism and 3 indicates the highest level of favoritism. As it shows, the most anti-Russia coalition is Jamaica, while the most anti-China coalition is Trafic light. Meanwhile, Grand Coalition is the most pro-NATO coalition. If the US adopts a more normative foreign policy against China and Russia, then the Greens and FDP will be more assertive in their anti-Russian and anti-Chinese policies and Germany will align more firmly with the US if traffic light or Jamaica coalition rise to power.

Issues CoalitionsTrafic LightGrand CoalitionJamaica
Russia213 
China312 
NATO132 

1 indicates the lowest level of favoritism. 3 indicates the highest level of favoritism.

In conclusion, this election should not make Americans any happier. The US has already been frustrated with the current government led by Angela Merkel who gave Germany’s trade with China the first priority, and now that the left-wing will have more say in any imaginable coalition in the future, the Americans should become less pleased. But, still, there are hopes that Germany can be a partner for the US in great power competition if the US could articulate its foreign policy with common values, like democracy and human rights. More normative foreign policy can make a reliable partner out of Germany. Foreign policy rarely became a topic in this election, but observers should expect many ramifications for it.

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