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And Afghanistan Survives as the Graveyard of Empires

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Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan once tried hard to conquer the area now known as Afghanistan. Not just as “The Graveyard of Empires” which was regarded as a reputation for the Afghan people in thwarting the expansionist ambitions of the invaders from Great Britain to the Soviet Union, it as also “a graveyard for colonialist and neocolonialist foreign powers aiming to dominate it,”  Romain Malejacq, political scientist wrote in his book “Warlord Survival.”

In 2010, anthropologist Thomas Barfield then wrote in his book “Afghanistan. A Cultural and Political History” that the way of Afghanistan gets rid of foreign invaders is to make the country ungovernable, unstable, and difficult to control, so that the colonizers eventually go alone. However, Thomas wrote, this strategy ultimately haunts the Afghan people themselves because every conflict that occurs actually makes the state and government institutions there become weaker, so that every ruler who appears tends to choose an authoritarian and brutal way of power.

Historically, the modern history of Afghanistan began in 1747 with the founding of the Durrani Empire by Ahmad Shah Durrani, a Pashtun military commander who previously served in the Persian Empire, led by Nadir Shah. After the assassination of Nadir, Durrani gave birth to the Afghan kingdom (Durani Empire) which was dominated by Pashtun tribes. Its position was geographically between the Persian Empire and the Mughal Empire (the Muslim empire that controlled parts of India). The Durrani Empire lasted until 1823, then succeeded by Dost Muhammad Khan, who emerged in Kabul in 1826. Dost was the emir (or ruler) of Afghanistan who later founded the Barakzai dynasty.

Entering the nineteenth century, Afghanistan was caught in the great game between Great Britain (East India Britain) and the Russian Empire. Fearing that Russia would use Afghanistan as a springboard to attack South Asia, the British decided to move first. The British invaded Afghanistan in 1839 and established local rulers as puppets of British rule. The British action ended badly. Historian William Dalrymple in his book “Return of a King: The Battle for Afghanistan, 1839-42” called it the “greatest disaster” of Imperial Britain

During the First World War, despite receiving envoys from Germany and Istanbul and receiving gold, the Afghanistan chose neutrality, rejecting the Ottoman Empire’s call for pan-Islamism, Islamic solidarity against Russia and Great Britain. But soon after the war was over, after assassination of his brother,  Amanullah Khan (1919-1929) then suddenly launched an attack on British troops in Afghanistan (known as the Third Anglo-Afghan War), and considerably won, then gained independence from Britain which was agreed upon via the Treaty of Rawalpindi (August 8, 1919).

Amanullah is a secular modernist who tries to represent all ethnic minorities in Afghanistan. And Amanullah was brushed off by ethnic Tajiks, led by King Habibullah Kalakani, continued to King Mohammad Nadir Shah who reappointed the Barakzai Regime, then was succeeded by his son Mohammad Zahir Shah in 1933. He was the last King of Afghanistan, Zahir Shah (1933-1973) who is still well remembered by some groups in Afghanistan for his success in bringing about the Afghan constitution in 1964, establishing a legislature and promoting freedom for women.

Zahir Shah struggled to get US support to match the Soviet Union and also struggled to get Soviet support to keep up with US. As fate would have it, and yes Afghanistan was again trapped in the great game between US and the Soviets during the cold war. At first, Afghanistan was fairly successful in playing its role in the Cold War. Afghanistan got fund from both sides. The Soviets built infrastructure projects in Afghanistan under Zahir Shah, such as the north-south Salang Tunnel and Bagram airfield. The United States also provided agricultural and other development assistance, such as a USAID-led irrigation project and a hydroelectric power plant in Helmand Province, the Kajaki Dam.

Afghanistan began to become less stable in the 1970s, during the Nixon Administration, who was strongly anti-communist and somewhat allergic to the Islamic movement. And during medical treatment to Italy in 1973, Zahir Shah was overthrown by his cousin, Mohammad Daoud. Daoud abolished Afghanistan’s monarchy and declared himself Afghanistan’s first president in a dictatorial fashion. His reign was only 5 years, Daoud was then overthrown and killed in April 1978 by military officers under the direction of two top officials of the People’s Democrat Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), Hafizullah Amin and Nur Mohammad Taraki, via Revolution Saur (in April 1978).

Taraki became president, but a year later, in September 1979, he was overthrown by his own friend, Amin. Even though both are from the same faction, the Khalq PDPA faction that was of rural Pashtun ethnicity. Amin tried to impose a radical socialist style to change the traditional system of society by redistributing land and bringing more women into government. But resistance emerged (anticommunist) which sparked an uprising from Islamic parties.

The insurgency grew more massive, jeopardizing the position of Amin’s government, compounded by Soviet suspicions that Amin had begun flirting with US after his visit to Washington, which sparked the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late December 1979. The Soviets then replaced Amin with Kamal Barbrak to run Afghan government in the Moscow (Communist) style, which led to the birth of the Mujahideen.

Furthermore, as is well known, the struggle of the Mujahideen which was backed up by funds and weapons from US and Saudi via Pakistan made the Soviets drenched in blood for 10 years in Afghanistan, by repatriating around 13,000 coffins to Moscow, which sparked an increasing antipathy of the Soviet people to the soviet communist party. The Soviets signed the Geneva agreement in 1988 to leave Afghanistan the following year, 1989. Two years later, 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed.

US and the Saudis had a big role in helping the Mujahideen, some of whose members later became the Taliban and Al Qaeda. After the Soviets left Afghanistan and Najibullah step down, an unstable Mujahideen government was formed. Five years after its birth, the Taliban, thanks to the support of Pakistani intelligence (ISI), succeeded in removing the Mujahideen government and installing Mullah Omar as leader of the Afghan emirate in 1996.

Then the events of 9/11 2001 forced US to follow in the footsteps of the Soviet Union by invading Afghanistan, removing the Taliban government for refusing to hand over Osama bin Laden. US was stuck there far longer than the Soviets, from the Bush Junior administration, Obama, Trump, and ended up in Biden’s hands. Just like the fate of the Soviet Union, US went home as  loser aka defeated. If the target is “just kill Osama bin Laden,” then indeed that target has been met.

But if the target is “nation building,” then US has failed at the time  Ashraf Ghani’s government just ran away before Kabul was taken over by the Taliban. In fact, US has never really left Afghanistan after the new government was formed in 2004, even though it has experienced “lost focus” since the US invaded Iraq in 2003 and the assassination of Osama in 2011. Until finally in 2021, Joe Biden firmly and consistently decided to completely exit Afghanistan with a “non-victor” status similar to when US left Vietnam in 1975. Joe Biden’s consistency, however, has helped cement the status of “The Graveyard of Empires” for Afghanistan.

Joe Biden might comment “not my business” over the uncertainty over the sustainability of Ghani’s government in Kabul. Or Antony Blinken may be confident in saying Kabul is not Saigon’s Moment. But the rapid occupation of Kabul and Ashraf Ghani’s flight to Tajikistan to Usbekistan to UEA, would be a direct slap in the face for US as China, Russia and Pakistan are standing behind the Taliban now. Evidence of US’s 20-year presence at a cost of more than $2 trillion in Afghanistan has turned out to be nothing more than a cowardice of President Ashraf Ghani. And the end of the retalibanization is uncertain, because the regional great game is still ongoing and there is absolutely no certainty that the Taliban will be free from Al Qaeda. In other words, the storyline of the fight in Afghanistan is still long, with the shadows of another version of 9/11 still hanging in US’s skies. And as usual in the history of Afghanistan, if the invaders have left, then they will fight with each other which will make the Taliban regime II remain an unstable regime. Yes, that’s a sign that Afghanistan survives as The Graveyard of Empires.

Political Economic Observer and Senior Fellow at Economic Action Indonesia Institution/EconAct

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The Taliban Finally Granted Permission to the Former President Karzai to leave Afghanistan

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Former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai. (Express photo by Nirupama Subramanian)

Based on the information, the former president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, was permitted to leave the country. At a time, when online meetings between Sohail Shaheen and American representatives are going on in connection with the start of intra-Afghan talks in Doha, The former president of the country, Hamid Karzai, was allowed to exit the country for the first time after August 15, 2021, when the Taliban took over. Nevertheless, it is not yet known when he will start his overseas trip, but his only purpose is to get preparation for the start of Intra-Afghan talks in Doha and to meet with American officials and foreign Afghan politicians. Since the end of October and the beginning of November, there are reports narrating that telephone calls are being made between President Hamid Karzai, and the US special representative for Afghanistan, Thomas West.

Besides, the persons are preparing for future negotiations, the re-established relationship between the former president Karzai and the CIA took place, when a CIA undercover intelligence officer met Karzai sometimes back, when he represented himself as an International media reporter. Sources suspect that the undercover agent interviewed the president under the auspices of a well-known German based Der Spiegel Magazine.

According to the information, former President Hamid Karzai will fly to Germany, while meeting with the CIA officials at the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Meantime, the former President Hamid Karzai will meet with some high-ranking officials of Germany and then have separate meetings with Western politicians and intelligence officers. Furthermore, after that, President Hamid Karzai will meet with the American ambassador to lay out the strategy for the potential negotiations.

 Currently, there is a lot of confusion in the Mandigak palace in Kandahar province, where Taliban Spiritual leader and the decision making hub located and it is said that there have been serious discrepancies  regarding allowing him to go abroad. However, Sheikh Haibatullah’s position is still neutral about his exit, while negotiating with his advisors to make a final decision in the upcoming days.

Nonetheless, there are no other specific differences regarding the permission. It is only the low-ranking Taliban fighters, who demand the precise judgement of the Taliban’s leader in this concern; In addition, some Taliban leaders are also unhappy about the whole process, especially the former members of the Quita Council of Taliban.

Now the ball is in the Taliban’s ground, whether they are ready to comply with the demands of the international community, by transferring the power to a transitional government or not, and to get along with the United States and get onboard the international community support. Definitely, it causes further splintering among Taliban groups and ISKP will use it as an opportunity to recruit Taliban fighters, while paving the way for regrouping in Khorasan Province the IS so-called territory.

The ISKP long before blamed Taliban for being ‘’ Rafeda’’, while simultaneously cooperating with the US, Russia, China and Iran for their political ambitions.  To conclude, the Afghan people will not accomplish a lasting peace and sustainable economic developments, since the country will turn into a new battle filed among countries, which have stake in Afghanistan.

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The Charisma and Chaos of Imran Khan

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PTI Chairman Imran Khan gestures at the march participants as his convoy arrives in Gujranwala on November 1, 2022. — Instagram

The chances of Imran Khan winning the elections of 2018 were quite murky. Despite his unparalleled fan base and populist rhetoric appeals to the young, and labor class of Pakistan, the legitimacy of his government is marred with allegations of fraud, rigging, and exploitation.

Some argue that his candidacy was a marketing tactic used by the ‘Establishment’ in Pakistan to form a government that is rather weak and dependent so that the ‘Establishment’ can continue its control over domestic security issues including the Nuclear escalation and relations with India.

But by and large, Khan won the elections.

Maybe it was the stardom attached to the name ‘Imran Khan’ and Pakistanis not wanting to confide in the same faces ruling them for centuries.

Maybe it was the mismanagement and violence that marred election day with unfathomable delays in result declaration in metropolis cities, coupled with post-poll manipulation.

Maybe it was the judicial-military nexus, that placed all the votes in the right places by not allowing voters to use their will during elections.

Maybe it was the 7 years-old narcotics case hearing moving forward against the stalwart of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Hanif Abbasi, giving him a life sentence in a rare late-night session of court, four days ahead of the elections that effectively knocked PML-N out of the race.

But the deal was done and can’t be undone and Imran Khan became the Prime Minister of Pakistan, for better or worse.

Khan the Celebrity

Pakistani nationals were victims of the financial crisis, unemployed people, those who lost their homes, and who were in debt; these people felt like the two parties ruling Pakistan for centuries had destroyed their country’s economy.

Imran Khan, with his humongous stardom as an athlete and philanthropist, seemed like the only ‘Messiah’ that could save them from all the atrocities they were facing.

Though, a significant number of votes were cast in favor of PML-N but not in the places that would have locked the win. So Imran Khan, persuaded the angry Pakistanis, the youth, and the labor class who were fed up with being handed over in trade deals with other nations.

Khan, a socialite that he was, knew how to connect with these agitated masses. Their grievances were clear as a day and so he gave them pretty promises wrapped up in his vibrant rallies filled with catchy songs. His huge social media presence along with the ‘Naya Pakistan’ slogan further amplified his staunch.

But there lies a challenge as to why Khan became the top highlight of this era. To many who were tired of politicians filling their own pockets, and amid the corruption charges on Nawaz Sharif, Khan’s celebrity status, his colorful personality, his promise of a corruption-free Pakistan, and his unconventional ‘Don’t Panic’ attitude – all of this made Khan seem like the only option who would deliver a better life and nation and, if not that, then at least would be the eradicator of what Pakistan had become.

Khan the Totalitarian

The other side of the coin sees Imran Khan as a narcissist, self-centered, and power-hungry mogul. After achieving his eternal craving of becoming the Prime Minister, he hardly showed any respect for the institutions of the country. More often than not he refused to attend the sessions of Parliament, with his excuse being the presence of members of the opposition party whom he referred to as ‘Crooks’ and ‘Chors’ (thieves).

This resulted in laws, instead of passing through an ordinary law-making process, being passed through presidential ordinances, with very limited power. We can clearly say that these laws were passed without debate, consensus, and thorough examination, negating the very foundation of constitutional requirements.

Additionally, Khan likes to fabricate stories in his speeches, a lot. In this vein, he brings down any democratic provision that proves him wrong, including targeting political parties on concocted charges of corruption; sustained attacks on the media; undermining law authorities, even the Supreme Court is not exempted from his allegations.

Through the abrogation of rule of law, irresponsible remarks about institutions, and disdain toward democracy, Khan himself created a fragile parliamentary system, which then collapsed on him. Not only this, but he has fractured the already dwindling democracy of Pakistan into a whole new level.

Khan the Leader

Khan came onto the political scene when Pakistan was facing a volatile situation both at home and abroad, coupled with the tensions going on with the Americas, and the rampant inflation, he was still able to take some impressive measures. His work related to health, relief programs, house loans, the environment, entrepreneurship, and the COVID response is admirable.

In addition, his billion tree tsunami and the building of several small dams initiated an environment-friendly drive in the climate change-affected country. But was he able to deliver on the ‘Promises’ made to the nation? Absolutely Not.

Perhaps he should have paid more attention to the cabinet as the abrupt changes in the system dwindled the confidence of investors in Pakistan’s economic machinery. His careless handling of some important economic programs including the CPEC decelerated the capital influx that caused the GDP to drop considerably.

To top it all off, Pakistan, in 2021 dropped from 124th place to 140th place according to Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), leaving an ugly mark on Khan’s corruption eradication promises on which he has led the foundation of his political career. Maybe he should have abided by the agenda of progression in order to gear up his performance instead of getting involved in blame and shame politics.

Khan the funambulist

The important reason why Khan has a cult following in Pakistan is his unfiltered and raw opinions about topics like the Americas, and Afghanistan which he keeps casting in his speeches. And, the audience, mostly the social media-induced young generation eats it all up like a sweet concoction, without paying heed to the implications it will bring to the foreign policy of Pakistan.

Khan’s decision to appoint Usman Buzdar, an underqualified and inexperienced newcomer to a vital position in the key city of Punjab pretty much sums up his political foresight. Perhaps, the most interesting yet debatable contrivance of his regime is his relentless attitude toward the United States, no previous Prime Minister of Pakistan was able to say ‘Absolutely No’ to the US as it had many allies in the domestic political platform of Pakistan. This stance of Khan was admired a lot in the country, with the phrase being trending in Pakistan. But the remarks came with ramifications for Pakistan on the international forum. This whole scenario further makes people question his political sanity.

Imran Khan possesses all the characteristics of a populist leader and in Populism: A Very Short Introduction, Cas Mudde says: “Populists are dividers, not uniters” they split society into “two homogenous and antagonistic groups: the pure people on the one end and the corrupt elite on the other.” True to this narration, Khan has divided the nation into two groups of ‘Evil and Good’ people, and the consequences are detrimental to the stability of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Conclusion

To sum it all up, Imran Khan, despite his misgivings, his warts, his narcissism, and his unhinged political views, is still able to reach a class of people that have seen Pakistan erode for centuries and consider him the last hope for the country. But he certainly is not the best choice for democracy as his political understanding is ruined by his self-righteous approach. In this manner, he is no better than former US President Trump who incited his supporters to pass on the U.S. Capitol to forestall the peaceful transition of power after his electoral defeat. It is precise to say that Pakistan has fallen into a deep cauldron and only a Magic Wand can heal it at this point. Though Khan has not singularly created this cauldron, he most definitely is exploiting and feeding on it.

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Chattisgarh Elections 2023: Future of United Progressive Alliance and BJP

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Chattisgarh, the 9th largest state of India by area and 17th most populous state with population of 30 Million will go to votes in upcoming elections in 2023. Chattisgarh saw an electoral shift in 2018 when voters chose INC lead United Progressive Alliance over BJP which was into the power since 2003. The legislative assembly comprises of 90 constituencies and population demography favors the Hindu’s with 93.05%, Muslims are major minority with 2.02% and Christians make up 1.92% of the population of Chattisgarh. The major contenders in the elections are United Progressive Alliance, which came into power in 2018. The major parties in the Alliance are Indian National Congress (INC), Dravida Munnetra Kazghagam, Janta Dal (United), Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party. This alliance faces BJP as major gladiator of the Elections.

INC lead United Progressive Alliance Government

In 2018 elections, United Progressive Alliance defeated BJP in the state to form the government. Previously BJP enjoyed three successive tenures in power. The Alliance proved to be vital in defeating the ex-ruling party and Bhupesh Baghel of INC was sworn in as new CM of Chattisgarh. The newly elected government opted for the developmental model in the state with their activities ranging from sports to health and good governance. The CM gave the vision of ‘Employment Mission’ which aimed at providing 15 lac jobs to people of Chattisgarh. The government provided the masses with the vision of ‘trust, development and security’ in order to remain popular and hence their projects based upon wellness of the general public. The CM started ‘Khelbo-Jeetbo-Gadhbo Nova Chattisgarh’ scheme in order to enhance sports infrastructure and facilities for youth of Chattisgarh. The scheme covered major as well as local games. The government also launched ‘ Makhyamantri Haat Bazar Clinics’ scheme in order to provide and ensure health services in rural and remote areas of the state. This scheme received a lot of praises from the masses during pandemic period. Government also enhanced education sector by setting up more than 600 Hindi and English medium schools. CM launched ‘Swami Atmanand English Medium Education System’ in all districts of the state. The scheme aimed at setting up of the English medium colleges for the students. The government under CM Baghel, also faced severe opposition in form BJP. The BJP criticized government of corruption, farm loans and internal rift among government officials. The CM also survived ‘No Confidence Motion’ tabled by BJP in the legislative assembly in July 2022.

BJP and Caste votes

Caste permutation and combinations have always played a role of dominating factor in the state of Chattisgarh. The state is amalgamation of upper castes, schedule castes (SC), Schedule tribes (ST) and Other Backward Castes (OBCs). The Kurmi’s and Sahu’s dominate upper castes in the state. One third of the population is composed of Scheduled tribes (ST), while Schedule castes (SC) make up 12% of the population and Other Backward Castes (OBCs) are 41% of the population. Upper castes and OBCs have traditionally tilted in the favor of BJP. SC votes have been divided among BJP, INC and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). In 2013 however, BJP swept through 9 out of 10 constituencies of SC reserved seats. Dalit vote bank also has an influential role in elections. There exists around 12% of Dalit vote splitting between BJP and BSP. This vote bank influences 40 constituencies of the state. BJP is also counting upon Sahu’s votes in order to gain power back in upcoming Chattisgarh elections.

Chattisgarh as home ground of Hindutva

Chattisgarh has seen a violent shift when it comes to application of agenda of Hindutva. RSS and its political affiliate BJP have targeted Chattisgarh for Hindutva onslaught. The norms of Hindu identity have gone deep down into the roots of the society. ‘Ghar Wapsi’ scheme is gaining influence in Chandigarh. In March 2022, a ceremony was held and 1250 people returned to Hindu dharma. In states like Odisha, Chattisgarh and Jharkand more than 10,000 people have returned to Hindu dharma. BJP has developed a narrative of targeting Congress for miseries of Hindu’s all around India. Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) an affiliate of RSS has been provided with security umbrella of BJP and it has forced Churches in Chattisgarh to use name of ‘Acharya’ and ‘Up-Acharya’ instead of ‘Father’. VHP has also forced churches to display images and painting of Hindu goddess ‘Saraswati’ in churches. The organization has also forces churches to distribute ‘Prasad’ instead of sweets at the eve of Christmas, thereby attacking the root identities of Christianity in the state. Around the time when BJP formed the government in center in 2014, 5 villages in Bastar district of Chattisgarh were banned for non-Hindu practices. Hindu leaders in Chattisgarh are calling for killing of any individual who tries to convert Hindus into any other religion. The Equation between the minorities and Hindus started changing since 2003, when BJP was installed into power in Chattisgarh. The change has intensified now when BJP is also present in Center. 

Bet on Youth’s vote

The youth vote bank in Chattisgarh can be the turning point in the upcoming elections. The major gladiators BJP and United Progressive Alliance are eyeing the vote share of youth in the state. The initiatives started by the CM Baghel, progressively targets the youth and their development. However, BJP accuses the current INC lead state government of unemployment among the youth. The tussle between the major contenders in the state is pivoted for Youth vote. The saffron party has also targeted youth with the identity confrontation within the framework of Hindutva. However, the INC lead coalition government is centered on the agenda of developmental and governance model for the youth rather than targeting and convincing youth on identity based vote bank. The youth from minority section of the population may opt for INC and United Progressive alliance for the power in state but saffron influenced youth and upper castes are likely to put their weight in BJP’s favor.

Conclusion

Chattisgarh elections 2023 will play a major role in determining the BJPs future in center as well. Chattisgarh has been the power bank for BJP since 2003 but shift in 2018 has taken BJP by shock and surprise. However, upcoming elections can also prove to be referendum of policies applied by BJP at national level. INC will also have to investigate its depth in masses as well. The future of alliance mostly depends upon the INC performance in the state elections. The General Elections can also be strategically targeted by INC in form of alliance and coalition seat shares in order to give tough time BJP which is by far thriving among the masses at national level.

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