The China-Arab States Expo recently held its fifth session in Yinchuan, capital of northwest China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Province. Through this exhibition and other events, China aims to strengthen China-Arab relations and jointly advance high-quality bilateral cooperation in building the Belt and Road. This exhibition constitutes an opportunity for more joint cooperation and the creation of new spaces for development between the two sides. This year, more than 1,000 companies registered to participate in the exhibition’s virtual events and on the ground. About 239 companies showcased their products and their latest innovations on the exhibition floor, which covers an area of about 12,000 square meters. Major companies, including “Huawei”, “JD.com” and 38 other of the world’s 500 most powerful companies, in addition to the 500 most powerful companies in China and industry-leading companies, were present at the exhibition, and the total number of visitors exceeded 10 million, including 120,000 visitors from abroad to view the exhibitions online.
In a message on the occasion of the exhibition, Chinese President Xi Jinping noted that the traditional friendship between the Chinese and Arab peoples is gaining momentum with the passage of time, and that in recent years, China and Arab countries have constantly strengthened strategic coordination and exchange of measures, and achieved cooperation in the joint construction of the “Belt and Road”. He mentioned that China and Arab countries have combined efforts to combat the epidemic in light of the outbreak of the new mutated variants of covid-19 virus, and set a model for mutual assistance and overcoming difficulties in a spirit of synergy and solidarity, stressing that his country is ready to work with Arab countries to seek cooperation and development, and jointly promote peaceful development, especially since Beijing remains the largest trading partner of Arab countries.
Within the framework of the exhibition’s activities, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, indicated that the exhibition represents a platform to strengthen the trade and economic relationship with China, especially since China is one of the largest trading partners of the UAE, explaining that the volume of non-oil trade between the two countries amounted to 74.4 billion US dollars. In 2020, including imports worth $39.3 billion, and the volume of non-oil exports amounting to $2.7 billion; China is the third largest investor in the UAE, as the volume of Chinese investment in the UAE until 2020 amounted to more than $5.4 billion. The UAE minister added that his country will continue to create an environment for the development of investment and trade, and will push the growth of global trade by strengthening the establishment of infrastructure, more particularly in the field of transport and logistics, especially since his country is ready for this step because it possesses the most advanced facilities and technologies in the world in this field, calling to continue explore areas that promote economic growth between the two countries, stressing that the UAE is witnessing a shift towards a more flexible and sustainable model that creates a huge opportunity in various fields.
The exhibition covers many fields, including clean energy, digital economy, healthcare, cross-border e-commerce, in addition to virtual exhibition events based on technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing. This exhibition is an opportunity to enhance the historical cooperation between China and the Arabs, which existed through the Silk Road and is renewed through the Belt and Road Initiative. To date, China has signed cooperation documents within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative with 19 Arab countries as well as with the League of Arab States. This exhibition is an opportunity for Arab governments, trade organizations and institutions to open up to China and create more joint cooperation. The exhibition is a platform for China and the Arab countries to achieve the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, as China has become a major economic partner for most Arab countries through huge trade exchanges. China has 250 million tons of crude oil from Arab countries, which is equivalent to half of the country’s total crude oil imports over the past year.
At the national level, eight cooperative projects were signed at the exhibition, with a total investment of 11.18 billion Yuan, including the integrated smart energy investment project in the Red Sea. Eight provinces and cities, including Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Henan and Guangdong, signed 12 investment projects with Arab countries and other countries along the Belt and Road, with a total investment of 7.43 billion Yuan. Since the launch of China-Arab states expo in 2013, the biennial exhibition has attracted more than 5,000 companies from nearly 110 countries. In 2019, 287 deals worth about 185.4 billion Yuan were signed during the activities of the fourth edition of the fair. Data released by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicate that Arab countries’ imports from China amounted to 122.9 billion US dollars last year, an increase of 2.1 percent year on year.
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin said the China-Arab Expo is an important platform for China and Arab countries to jointly build the Belt and Road Initiative. A total of 277 partnership contracts were signed in this exhibition, with a total investment of 156.67 billion Yuan (about 24 billion dollars), during the exhibition, investments of about 154 billion Yuan were collected to support 199 projects, while 24 commercial projects worth 2.75 billion Yuan were signed during the exhibition. The increasing partnerships between Arab governments and institutions and China fully demonstrates the strong vitality of China and Arab countries to jointly seek cooperation and development, achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, and jointly build the Belt and Road with high quality.
The Chinese government’s special envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun, said that the China-Arab Expo has played an active role in promoting cooperation between the two sides in building the “Belt and Road” since its establishment in 2013, and has become an important platform for communicating development needs and deepening economic and trade cooperation. He stressed that Sino-Arab relations are like a steadfast tree against storms and major changes that the world has not witnessed for a hundred years with the pandemic of the century, which brought unprecedented repercussions on humanity, which provided a model for relations between the countries of the world and an example for south-south cooperation, adding that the two sides are working hard on maintaining sovereignty, independence, equality and the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, defending the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries, exchanging support in the conditions of the covid outbreak, providing preventive supplies, exchanging experiences via the internet, urgently dispatching medical teams, and cooperating in the clinical trial of the vaccine and joint production of vaccine packaging, Which embodied the brotherly feelings of solidarity in the spirit of one team in concrete steps.
The Chinese government’s special envoy to the Middle East added that his country has provided nearly 100 million doses of the Chinese vaccine to Arab countries as grants and exports, and has achieved fruitful cooperation with both Egypt and the UAE in the joint production of the vaccine, which provided strong assistance in the battle against the pandemic, stressing that it in the first half of this year, the volume of trade exchange between China and the Arab countries amounted to 144.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 25.7% year on year, which made China the largest trading partner of the Arab countries. It also imported 130 million tons of crude oil from Arab countries, thus making the Arabs the largest suppliers of crude oil to China, and cooperation between the two sides has made progress, in the fields of fifth-generation communications, big data, aviation and space, artificial intelligence and other advanced and modern technology, noting that there is huge potential for the development of the green economy in China and the Arab countries, and that cooperation has developed in the fields of solar energy, nuclear energy and other clean energy, which contributes to building the “Green Silk Road”.
He also noted that it is important in the next stage to continue to intensify high-level exchanges between China and the Arabs, deepen strategic communication, and continue to exchange firm support on issues related to vital interests and major concerns, while raising the banner of non-interference in internal affairs, and promoting unity, self-strengthening, solidarity and cooperation, and defending international justice and equity, and defending the interests of developing countries. Zhai Jun called for continuing to devote the spirit of solidarity to combat the pandemic, stressing that his country will do its best to meet the needs of Arab countries for Chinese vaccines, deepen cooperation in joint production of vaccines and local production, and the categorical rejection of politicizing the issue of tracing the origin of the virus in a way that helps achieve the dream of the renaissance for both nations.
Zhao Yongqing, permanent deputy head of the government of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, said that on the basis of institutional activities, the fifth China-Arab States Expo brought together the needs of China and Arab countries and what Ningxia could achieve. This exhibition resulted in the innovative creation of the China-Arab Energy Cooperation Summit Forum, Water Resources Forum, Clean Energy New Materials Exhibition, Digital Economy Exhibition, and Cross-Border E-Commerce Exhibition and so on, which built bridges for various institutions to participate in cooperation and investment within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative.
It is remarkable that all the pavilions of the China and Arab Countries Exhibition are green and environmentally friendly private booths, with extensive use of the interaction of information, technologies and digital display methods, to achieve simultaneous display on the internet and on the ground, and the overall design highlights the international level and the concept of modern and contemporary design. This year’s exhibition used the latest information technology to achieve exhibition viewing via 5G technology, where the audience can view the exhibition site in real time through 360-degree panoramic views and through virtual reality glasses on site, leading to simultaneous exhibitions online and on the field.
According to reports from the exhibition, the previous four sessions of the China and Arab States Expo, a total of 112 countries and regions, 21 Chinese and foreign senior officials, 283 foreign ministers and guests, more than 5,000 domestic and foreign companies, and more than 40,000 visitors have witnessed the previous sessions. A total of 936 economic and trade cooperation projects were signed. The signed projects include modern agriculture, high-tech, energy and chemical engineering, biopharmaceuticals, equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, industrial park construction, “internet + medical health”, tourism cooperation and other areas.
A number of Sino-Arab bilateral and multilateral cooperation agencies have settled in Ningxia, including the China-Arab Center for Technology Transfer, the China-Arab Center for Agricultural Technology Transfer, and the Secretariat of the China-Arab Trade Mediation Center. This session of the exhibition achieved fruitful results in new areas of economic and trade cooperation. China Gezhouba Group Co., Ltd. and the management company of Tianjin Changsha Taida Industrial Park, signed cooperation projects on 5G, artificial intelligence, aerospace and others with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and other countries and regions, effectively expanding the areas of economic and trade cooperation between China and Arab countries.
While the Emirati pavilion relied on the yellow color, symbol of the desert that characterizes the country, and the blue color that symbolizes the sea, in reference to the wide coasts it enjoys, the Moroccan pavilion was “completely digital” highlighting the characteristics of Morocco and its rich and multiple cultures. Chairman of the Association of African-Chinese Cooperation for Development in Morocco, Nasser Bouchiba, stressed that the exhibition is an important platform for strengthening cooperation between China and Arab countries, whether during the pandemic or after, explaining that all countries will face the effects of the slowdown in global economic growth, but the Chinese and Arabs, if they join hands and focus on economic and trade cooperation, will not be affected.
Thus, they will set an example in international economic and trade cooperation and give confidence to the process of global economic recovery, calling on Arab governments and commercial institutions, to seize this good opportunity to fully understand the Chinese market, and to actively work on marketing high-quality products, explaining that the geographical environment of the Arab world may provide opportunities to cooperate in the field of agriculture, where there are long stretches of beaches and large areas of deserts. The cultivation of oases is a lifeline for the development of people’s living conditions. The agricultural cooperative project between Morocco, China and France in the Erfoud Oasis in Morocco has achieved abundant fruits in this regard.
Rebalancing Act: China’s 2022 Outlook
Authors: Ibrahim Chowdhury, Ekaterine T. Vashakmadze and Li Yusha
After a strong rebound last year, the world economy is entering a challenging 2022. The advanced economies have recovered rapidly thanks to big stimulus packages and rapid progress with vaccination, but many developing countries continue to struggle.
The spread of new variants amid large inequalities in vaccination rates, elevated food and commodity prices, volatile asset markets, the prospect of policy tightening in the United States and other advanced economies, and continued geopolitical tensions provide a challenging backdrop for developing countries, as the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report published today highlights.
The global context will also weigh on China’s outlook in 2022, by dampening export performance, a key growth driver last year. Following a strong 8 percent cyclical rebound in 2021, the World Bank expects growth in China to slow to 5.1 percent in 2022, closer to its potential — the sustainable growth rate of output at full capacity.
Indeed, growth in the second half of 2021 was below this level, and so our forecast assumes a modest amount of policy loosening. Although we expect momentum to pick up, our outlook is subject to domestic in addition to global downside risks. Renewed domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, including the new Omicron variant and other highly transmittable variants, could require more broad-based and longer-lasting restrictions, leading to larger disruptions in economic activity. A severe and prolonged downturn in the real estate sector could have significant economy-wide reverberations.
In the face of these headwinds, China’s policymakers should nonetheless keep a steady hand. Our latest China Economic Update argues that the old playbook of boosting domestic demand through investment-led stimulus will merely exacerbate risks in the real estate sector and reap increasingly lower returns as China’s stock of public infrastructure approaches its saturation point.
Instead, to achieve sustained growth, China needs to stick to the challenging path of rebalancing its economy along three dimensions: first, the shift from external demand to domestic demand and from investment and industry-led growth to greater reliance on consumption and services; second, a greater role for markets and the private sector in driving innovation and the allocation of capital and talent; and third, the transition from a high to a low-carbon economy.
None of these rebalancing acts are easy. However, as the China Economic Update points out, structural reforms could help reduce the trade-offs involved in transitioning to a new path of high-quality growth.
First, fiscal reforms could aim to create a more progressive tax system while boosting social safety nets and spending on health and education. This would help lower precautionary household savings and thereby support the rebalancing toward domestic consumption, while also reducing income inequality among households.
Second, following tightening anti-monopoly provisions aimed at digital platforms, and a range of restrictions imposed on online consumer services, the authorities could consider shifting their attention to remaining barriers to market competition more broadly to spur innovation and productivity growth.
A further opening-up of the protected services sector, for example, could improve access to high-quality services and support the rebalancing toward high-value service jobs (a special focus of the World Bank report). Eliminating remaining restrictions on labor mobility by abolishing the hukou, China’s system of household registration, for all urban areas would equally support the growth of vibrant service economies in China’s largest cities.
Third, the wider use of carbon pricing, for example, through an expansion of the scope and tightening of the emissions trading system rules, as well power sector reforms to encourage the penetration and nationwide trade and dispatch of renewables, would not only generate environmental benefits but also contribute to China’s economic transformation to a more sustainable and innovation-based growth model.
In addition, a more robust corporate and bank resolution framework would contribute to mitigating moral hazards, thereby reducing the trade-offs between monetary policy easing and financial risk management. Addressing distortions in the access to credit — reflected in persistent spreads between private and State borrowers — could support the shift to more innovation-driven, private sector-led growth.
Productivity growth in China during the past four decades of reform and opening-up has been private-sector led. The scope for future productivity gains through the diffusion of modern technologies and practices among smaller private companies remains large. Realizing these gains will require a level playing field with State-owned enterprises.
While the latter have played an instrumental role during the pandemic to stabilize employment, deliver key services and, in some cases, close local government budget gaps, their ability to drive the next phase of growth is questionable given lower profits and productivity growth rates in the past.
In 2022, the authorities will face a significantly more challenging policy environment. They will need to remain vigilant and ready to recalibrate financial and monetary policies to ensure the difficulties in the real estate sector don’t spill over into broader economic distress. Recent policy loosening suggests the policymakers are well aware of these risks.
However, in aiming to keep growth on a steady path close to potential, they will need to be similarly alert to the risk of accumulating ever greater levels of corporate and local government debt. The transition to high-quality growth will require economic rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green investments. If the past is any guide to the future, the reliance on markets and private sector initiative is China’s best bet to achieve the required structural change swiftly and at minimum cost.
First published on China Daily, via World Bank
The US Economic Uncertainty: Bitcoin Faces a Test of Resilience?
Is inflation harmful? Is inflation here to stay? And are people really at a loss? These and countless other questions along the same lines dominated the first half of 2021. Many looked for alternative investments in the national bourse, while others adopted unorthodox streams. Yes, I’m talking about bitcoin. The crypto giant hit records after records since the pandemic made us question the fundamentals of our conventional economic policies. And while inflation was never far behind in registering its own mark in history, the volatility in the crypto stream was hard to deny: swiping billions of dollars in mere days in April 2021. The surge came again, however. And it will keep on coming; I have no doubt. But whether it is the end of the pandemic or the early hues of a new shade, the tumultuous relationship between traditional economic metrics and the championed cryptocurrency is about to get more interesting.
The job market is at the most confusing crossroads in recent times. The hiring rate in the US has slowed down in the past two months, with employers adding only 199,000 jobs in December. The numbers reveal that this is the second month of depressing job additions compared to an average of more than 500,000 jobs added each month throughout 2021. More concerning is that economists had predicted an estimated 400,000 jobs additions last month. Nonetheless, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the unemployment rate has ticked down to 3.9% – the first time since the pre-pandemic level of 3.5% reported in February 2020. Analytically speaking, US employment has returned to pre-pandemic levels, yet businesses are still looking for more employees. The leverage, therefore, lies with the labor: reportedly (on average) every two employees have three positions available.
The ‘Great Resignation,’ a coinage for the new phenomenon, underscores this unique leverage of job selection. Sectors with low-wage positions like retail and hospitality face a labor shortage as people are better-positioned to bargain for higher wages. Thus, while wages are rising, quitting rates are record high simultaneously. According to recent job reports, an estimated 4.5 million workers quit their jobs in November alone. Given that this data got collected before the surge of the Omicron variant, the picture is about to worsen.
While wages are rising, employment is no longer in the dumps. People are quitting but not to invest stimulus cheques. Instead, they are resigning to negotiate better-paying jobs: forcing the businesses to hike prices and fueling inflation. Thus, despite high earnings, the budget for consumption [represented by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)] is rising at a rate of 6.8% (reported in November 2021). Naturally, bitcoin investment is not likely to bloom at levels rivaling the last two years. However, a downfall is imminent if inflation persists.
The US Federal Reserve sweats caution about searing gains in prices and soaring wage figures. And it appears that the fed is weighing its options to wind up its asset purchase program and hike interest rates. In March 2020, the fed started buying $40 billion worth of Mortgage-backed securities and $80 billion worth of government bonds (T-bills). However, a 19% increase in average house prices and a four-decade-high level of inflation is more than they bargained. Thus, the fed officials have been rooting for an expedited normalization of the monetary policy: further bolstered by the job reports indicating falling unemployment and rising wages. In recent months, the fed purview has dramatically shifted from its dovish sentiments: expecting no rate hike till 2023 to taper talks alongside three rate hikes in 2022.
Bitcoin now faces a volatile passage in the forthcoming months. While the disappointing job data and Omicron concerns could nudge the ball in its favor, the chances are that a depressive phase is yet to ensue. According to crypto-analysts, the bitcoin is technically oversold i.e. mostly devoid of impulsive investors and dominated by long-term holders. Since November, the bitcoin has dropped from the record high of $69,000 by almost 40%: moving in the $40,000-$41,000 range. Analysts believe that since bitcoin acts as a proxy for liquidity, any liquidity shortage could push the market into a mass sellout. Mr. Alex Krüger, the founder of Aike Capital, a New York-based asset management firm, stated: “Crypto assets are at the furthest end of the risk curve.” He further added: “[Therefore] since they had benefited from the Fed’s “extraordinarily lax monetary policy,” it should suffice to say that they would [also] suffer as an “unexpectedly tighter” policy shifts money into safer asset classes.” In simpler terms, a loose monetary policy and a deluge of stimulus payments cushioned the meteoric rise in bitcoin valuation as a hedge against inflation. That mechanism would also plummet the market with a sudden hawkish shift.
The situation is dire for most industries. Job participation levels are still low as workers are on the sidelines either because of the Omicron concern or lack of child support. In case of a rate hike, businesses would be forced to push against the wages to accommodate affordability in consumer prices. For bitcoin, the investment would stay dormant. However, any inflationary surprises could bring about an early tightening of the policy: spelling doom for the crypto market. The market now expects the job data to worsen while inflation to rise at 7.1% through December in the US inflation data (to be reported on Wednesday). Any higher than the forecasted figure alongside uncertainty imbued by the new variant could spark a downward spiral in bitcoin – probably pushing the asset below the $25000 mark.
Platform Modernisation: What the US Treasury Sanctions Review Is All About
The US Treasury has released an overview of its sanctions policy. It outlines key principles for making the restrictive US measures more effective. The revision of the sanctions policy was announced at the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidential term. The new review can be considered one of the results of this work. At the same time, it is difficult to find signs of qualitative changes in the US administration’s approach to sanctions in the document. Rather, it is about upgrading an existing platform.
Sanctions are understood as economic and financial restrictions that make it possible to harm the enemies of the United States, prevent or hinder their actions, and send them a clear political signal. The text reproduces the usual “behavioural” understanding of sanctions. They are viewed as a means of influencing the behaviour of foreign players whose actions threaten the security or contradict the national interests of the United States. The review also defines the institutional structure of the sanctions policy. According to the document, it includes the Treasury, the State Department, and the National Security Council. The Treasury plays the role of the leading executor of the sanctions policy, and the State Department and the NSS determine the political direction of their application, despite the fact that the State Department itself is also responsible for the implementation of a number of sanctions programmes. This line also includes the Department of Justice, which uses coercive measures against violators of the US sanctions regime.
Interestingly, the Department of Commerce is not mentioned among the institutions. The review focuses only on a specific segment of the sanctions policy that is implemented by the Treasury. However, it is the Treasury that is currently at the forefront of the application of restrictive measures. A significant part of the executive orders of the President of the United States and sanctions laws imply blocking financial sanctions in the form of an asset freeze and a ban on transactions with individuals and organisations. Decrees and laws assign the application of such measures to the Treasury in cooperation with the Department of State and the Attorney General. Therefore, the institutional link mentioned in the review reflects the spirit and letter of a significant array of US regulations concerning sanctions. The Department of Commerce and its Bureau of Industry and Security are responsible for a different segment of the sanctions policy, which does not diminish its importance. Export controls can cause a lot of trouble for individual countries and companies.
Another notable part of the review concerns possible obstacles to the effective implementation of US sanctions. These include, among other things, the efforts of the opponents of the United States to change the global financial architecture, reducing the share of the dollar in the national settlements of both opponents and some allies of the United States.
Indeed, such major powers as Russia and China have seriously considered the risks of being involved in a global American-centric financial system.
The course towards the sovereignty of national financial systems and settlements with foreign countries is largely justified by the risk of sanctions.
Russia, for example, is vigorously pursuing the development of a National Payment System, as well as a Financial Messaging System. There has been a cautious but consistent policy of reducing the share of the dollar in external settlements. China, which has much greater economic potential, is building systems of “internal and external circulation”. Even the European Union has embarked on an increase in the role of the euro, taking into account the risk of secondary sanctions from “third countries”, which are often understood between the lines as the United States.
Digital currencies and new payment technologies also pose a threat to the effectiveness of sanctions. Moreover, here the players can be both large powers and many other states and non-state structures. It is interesting that digital currencies at a certain stage may present a common challenge to the United States, Russia, China, the EU and a number of other countries. After all, they can be used not only to circumvent sanctions, but also, for example, to finance terrorism or in money laundering. However, the review does not mention such common interests.
The text does propose measures to modernise the sanctions policy. The first one is to build sanctions into the broader context of US foreign policy. Sanctions are not important in and of themselves, but as part of a broader palette of policy instruments. The second measure is to strengthen interdepartmental coordination in the application of sanctions in parallel with increased coordination of US sanctions with the actions of American allies. The third measure is a more accurate calibration of sanctions in order to avoid humanitarian damage, as well as damage to American business. The fourth measure is to improve the enforceability and clarity of the sanctions policy. Here we can talk about both the legal uncertainty of some decrees and laws, and about an adequate understanding of the sanctions programmes on the part of business. Finally, fifth is the improvement and development of the Treasury-based sanctions apparatus, including investments in technology, staff training and infrastructure.
All these measures can hardly be called new. Experts have long recommended the use of sanctions in combination with other instruments, as well as improved inter-agency coordination. The coordination of sanctions with allies has escalated due to a number of unilateral steps taken by the Trump Administration, including withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal or sanctions against Nord Stream 2. However, the very importance of such coordination has not been questioned in the past and has even been reflected in American legislation (Iran). The need for a clearer understanding of sanctions policy has also been long overdue. Its relevance is illustrated, among other things, by the large number of unintentional violations of the US sanctions regime by American and foreign businesses. The problem of overcompliance is also relevant, when companies refuse transactions even when they are allowed. The reason is the fear of possible coercive measures by the US authorities. Finally, improving the sanctioning apparatus is also a long-standing topic. In particular, expanding the resources of the Administration in the application of sanctions was recommended by the US Audit Office in a 2019 report.
The US Treasury review suggests that no signs of an easing are foreseen for the key targets of US sanctions. At the same time, American business and its many foreign counterparties can benefit from the modernisation of the US sanctions policy. Legal certainty can reduce excess compliance as well as help avoid associated losses.
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