The Kingdom of Morocco is voting this Wednesday, September 8, in general elections combining legislative, regional, and local elections for the first time. These third elections since the “Arab Spring” and the constitutional reform of 2011 that redistributed powers between the Royal Palace and the executive branch are being held despite the constraints of the pandemic and are particularly important as the balance of power in the region is changing substantially, especially between Morocco and Algeria.
For the past month, the world’s attention was riveted on Afghanistan, following the Taliban’s takeover of the country and the American disengagement, emblematic of a radical change in the US External policy. However, at the gates of Europe, an essential geopolitical reconfiguration is taking place, one of the most important moments of which will be the general election that will take place in Morocco on September 8, while the Maghreb is undergoing great changes.
Morocco is indeed considered by many analysts as the country that has best resisted the pandemic, ranking first in Africa in terms of vaccination – more than 60% of its target population to date has received at least one dose – and having succeeded in mobilizing considerable resources for its economic recovery over the past two years, while deploying a giant safety net for the most fragile populations. On the industrial front, the Kingdom of Morocco, which has relied since the mid-2000s on automobile production in particular, has seen its exports jump and is expected to pass the symbolic milestone of $10 billion in value by 2023, with nearly 700,000 vehicles produced per year. As noted by the American giant Deloitte in its latest report on Morocco released in August 2021: ” In the context of the Covid-19 global crisis, the Kingdom of Morocco demonstrated remarkable responsiveness on both the health front and at an economic and financial level. The Kingdom successfully reorganized the productive system to stop the wave of contaminations, while rolling-out major measures to provide an economic buffer to the significant social distress generated by lockdown measures. The country has also capitalized on this crisis to undertake fundamental reforms, such as the generalization of social protection measures launched in the spring of 2021 and the gradual digitization of public services.”
But it is on the diplomatic front that the years 2020 and 2021 have certainly seen the most developments, contributing to a rise in tensions with neighboring Algeria, which led the latter to unilaterally break off diplomatic relations with Morocco on August 24.
Several factors to consider
There are several factors behind this decision. First, the recognition by the United States of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in December 2020. Considered one of the world’s longest-running low-intensity conflicts, the dispute over Western Sahara pits Morocco, which administers the largely desert territory in the south of the Kingdom, against the Polisario Front, which is supported politically, financially and militarily by Algeria. Although recognized by only a dozen countries, the Polisario Front continues to demand the organization of a referendum on self-determination in Western Sahara, where Morocco has been proposing broad autonomy for the territory since 2007. Second, the resumption of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel, home to nearly 700,000 Jews from the Kingdom, has increased tensions between the two countries. More recently, an initiative by Morocco’s representative at the United Nations to support the autonomous movement in Kabylia has been a “Casus Belli” for Algeria, leading it to break off relations with its neighbor, with which the land borders have been closed since the mid-1990s, despite numerous calls from Rabat to reopen.
Very different trajectories
Beyond these elements, the election organized by Morocco on September 8, for which nearly 4,500 domestic and foreign observers were deployed, illustrates a fundamental difference in trajectory for the two Maghreb brothers. On the one hand, a Morocco that is diplomatically, industrially and economically offensive, that dreams of being a future African “Dragon”, but that still suffers from social polarization and strong income disparities. On the other, an oil and gas powerhouse that has suffered from the fall in the price of oil since 2014 and whose political context is still fragile following the “Hirak” revolt movements that led to the fall of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in early 2019. As noted by the Maghreb specialist and German researcher Isabelle Werenfels in an interview with French newspaper Le Monde “In recent years, it is Morocco that has scored points. Not only has the kingdom achieved important economic, political and diplomatic successes (religious diplomacy, regularization of sub-Saharan migrants, participation in COP 22, etc.), in sub-Saharan Africa and on the international scene. But he has also been very good at selling them.”
In this context, the holding of the Moroccan elections on time despite the epidemic context, as well as the likely establishment of a broad coalition government regardless of which political party came out on top of them, is undoubtedly a signal of the lasting installation of Morocco as the country with the most important assets to be the bedrock of stability and security in a still troubled region.
