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Middle East

Iran Bolstered by Allies: Drifting Leverage from the United States



The moment Mr. Donald J. Trump unilaterally exited the JCPOA accords, the United States was in for a rollercoaster ride full of peaks and troughs. While retaliatory sanctions crippled the Iranian economy, they also emboldened Iran on a path towards deterrents. Iran currently stands with 60% enriched Uranium – up from 3.67% maintained under the Nuclear Deal. And while the Republican premier expected Iran to throw a tantrum and eventually beg for relief, the opposite seems more of a reality at the current point in time. However, both Iran and the US are as stubborn as one could hope; neither allowing an upper hand to either. Yet lately, Iran seems to be dabbling in fortune while the prospects are murky for the supposed ‘World Superpower.’

In April, the delegations of either country separately met European counterparts in Vienna to return to the table. However, both the countries had ulterior demands up their sleeves. The Biden administration adopted a stern facade right from the beginning of the talks. Bearing pressure both from the congress and the echelons of the democrat party itself, the aim was to trip Iran into returning to the original deal while throwing in some additional conditions to test the waters. Apparently, the expectation was that the Rouhani-regime, the architect of the JCPOA accords, would be desperate enough to salvage the deal before leaving the office. The main appendage was a demand to end the proxy presence of Iran around the Middle East: particularly in Lebanon and Yemen. However, call it bad luck or simply poor coordination, Israel – one of the main allies of the United States – spoiled the plan before it even fully hatched.

The Israeli attack on Iran’s Natanz Nuclear facility embroiled the already incendiary situation in Iran. Arguably, the attack reaffirmed the conservative notion leading to their eventual electoral victory. The shift of power to hardliner current president, Mr. Ebrahim Raisi, was not planned for by the American counterpart. In fact, the deal was sure shot to be concluded in agreement by the sixth round of talks back in June. Yet, the presidential shift geared the Nuclear Deal into obscurity.

While President Raisi reiterated his commitment to negotiate to any possible extent to drive his nation away from the US sanctions, he never sketched a timeline after being sworn in. The delayed talks have kept the member countries (P5+1) – particularly the European parties – on their toes. Recently, Iran’s new Foreign Minister, Mr. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, stated: “The other side [Iran] understands that it will take two or three months for the new government in Iran to be established and be able to plan.” The statement further flared the unease of the United States since the objective was to win more leverage: not to be delayed or steered by a conservative regime that makes no qualms about its hatred for the western world.

The Iranian objective, on the other hand, was very simple: drop all unjustified sanctions imposed by Mr. Donald Trump before the parties returned to the table. Now with all honesty, the demand is relatively justified. Even China and Russia (both parties to the JCPOA accord) concurred to support this narrative. All Iran wants is the removal of all sanctions unilaterally undertaken by the former US president, along with a promise to never violate the agreement in the future. Understandably, it is a hard bargain – even for the moderate Biden administration – since it cannot guarantee another exit by a subsequent Trumpian – or even Trump himself. The dilemma stands, therefore, despite Iran reiterating its spirit to avoid delays yet discussing meaningful results. “We do not accept the approach of wasting time,” said Mr. Amir-Abdollahian, continuing: “Yet the results must have tangible results in the interest of the Iranian people.”

The tone seems liberal: as if the Raisi-regime is in no hassle, unlike its progressive predecessor. While the prospect of Iran’s full-fledged return to the oil market seems hazy under the pretext of heavy sanctions, the capability stands robust enough to keep OPEC at a sharp watch. Especially when the market has only begun stabilizing after the brutal price war last year. Mr. Trump’s exit from the Nuclear Deal wiped out almost 2 million bpd of Iran’s oil from the international market while simultaneously froze its payments around the world. The capability, however, has since climbed to an estimated 2.44 million bpd which would have very little trouble returning to the global oil market given china’s assistance coupled with offshore reserves allowing Iran to draw revenue regardless of the sanctions.

Furthermore, Mr. Raisi recently appointed a US-trained engineer, Mr. Mohammad Eslami, as the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation – replacing the long-term lead and key negotiator of the 2015 Nuclear Deal, Mr. Ali Akbar Salehi. The appointment came as a stark reminder that an experienced Raisi would not allow vulnerabilities to get ahold of such vital positions in Iran. In fact, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Global Nuclear Watchdog, would now have a very hard time squeezing leverage – especially when the loyalist lead in the form of Eslami shares the same hardline agenda bestowed by the conservative leaders of the country. Thus, IAEA’s burgeoning prospects, according to its Director, to gain expanded access to Iran’s nuclear facilities seem practically grim – at least before the Vienna Conference.

Moreover, it seems that even Europe is out of options to censure Iran over its lack of cooperation. “Europe has lost its credibility for Iran,” said Tarja Cronberg, a former EU parliamentarian, further stating: “It [Iran] is rather turning East towards China.” The claim has some semblance of truth given that Europe did little next to nothing to pressure Mr. Donald Trump to return to the Nuclear Deal or to revoke the additional sanctions. In fact, the EU feigned ignorance and played along with the egregious policies of the former president. Recently, Mr. Xi Jinping, President of China, while reassuring his commitment to bring Iran back to the deal, warned the IAEA against overstepping its monitoring role to nefariously support the United States or the EU’s objectives. As I observe the growing economic and political cooperation between China, Russia, and Iran, it is highly likely that both Russia and China would stand along with Iran if the talks end up going south.

The United States – and the EU by extension – is debilitated: deadpan in the present situation. While Iran seems cavalier in the resumption of the talks, it is making its point explicitly clear that the Vienna talks would be on their terms and not vice versa. Moreover, Iran’s growing cooperation with China along with the progressive economic endeavors are simply elevating Iran’s position – much to the chagrin of the United States. Whether it’s a plan towards a new Caspian Sea Natural gas Hub or the expanding ties between Iran and China’s National Petroleum Corporation: the steps are making US sanctions all but futile as an effective weapon.

In my opinion, if Iran resorts to tighten the screws on the talks – quite like the US did since April – the Biden-regime would be reduced down to two options: either accept the terms dictated by Iran’s hardliner frontier or impose more sanctions. The latter, however, seems unlikely since Mr. Biden won’t even consider following the footsteps of Mr. Trump. Even if he attempts to follow procedure through the UN Security Council, the bill would most certainly meet resistance from China and Russia. Thus, While Mr. Biden and his comrades claim to turn to ‘unspecified options’ if the program fails, I find it very hard to perceive that a badly battered US, along with a politically compromised Europe, has an assortment of tools to bend a rising Iran from its ascend. I have a simple question beleaguering my rationality: why would the US waste months trying to revive the deal if it had better options in the first place? All in all, I find it almost karmic that the new Iran stands rejuvenated with unconventional allies while the powerful bystanders are scrambling, mulling to make it right – just one last time.

The author is an active current affairs writer primarily analyzing the global affairs and their political, economic and social consequences. He also holds a Bachelor’s degree from Institute of Business Administration (IBA) Karachi, Pakistan.

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Middle East

IAEA Director General reaches agreement in Tehran, as Biden’s clock is ticking



IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi at a press conference. Photo: IAEA/Dean Calmaa

A meeting to resolve interim monitoring issues was held in Tehran on 12 September between the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi. Grossi was on a visit to Tehran to fix roadblocks on the stalled monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program, which is ever more challenging in a context where there is no diplomatic agreement to revive or supersede the JCPOA. Grossi said in a press conference on 12 September that the IAEA had “a major communication breakdown” with Iran. But what exactly does that mean?

The IAEA monitoring equipment had gone three months without being serviced and Grossi said he needed “immediate rectification” of the issues. He was able to get the Iranian side to come to an agreement. The news from Sunday was that the IAEA’s inspectors are now permitted to service the identified equipment and replace their storage media which will be kept under the joint IAEA and AEOI seals in Iran. The way and the timing are now agreed by the two sides. The IAEA Director General had to push on the terms of the agreement reached in February 2020.

Grossi underlined on Sunday that the new agreement can’t be a permanent solution. Data from the nuclear facilities is just being stored according to what commentators call “the continuity of knowledge” principle, to avoid gaps over extended time periods but the data is not available to inspectors.

When it’s all said and done, basically, it all comes down to the diplomatic level. The American withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement in 2018 keeps undermining the Iran nuclear inspections on the technical level. All the inspection activities have been stalled as a result of the broken deal. The IAEA’s strategy in the interim is that at least the information would be stored and not permanently lost.

Everyone is waiting for the JCPOA to be restored or superseded. As Vali Nasr argued in the New York Times back in April this year, the clock is ticking for Biden on Iran. Iran diplomacy doesn’t seem to be on Biden’s agenda at all at the moment. That makes the nuclear inspectors’ job practically impossible.  Journalists pointed out on Sunday that the Director General’s visit found one broken and one damaged camera in one of the facilities. Grossi assured it has been agreed with Iran that the cameras will be replaced within a few days. The IAEA report notes that it was not Iran but Israel that broke the IAEA cameras in a June drone attack carried out by Israel. Presumably, Israel aimed to show Iran is not complying by committing the violations themselves.

Grossi’s visit was a part of the overall IAEA strategy which goes along the lines of allowing time for diplomacy, without losing the data in the meantime. He added that he thinks he managed to rectify the most urgent problem, which is the imminent loss of data.

The Reuters’s title of the meeting is that the agreement reached on Sunday gives “hope” to a renewed Iran deal with the US, after Iran elected a hardliner president, Ebrahim Raisi, in August this year, but that’s a misleading title. This is not the bit that we were unsure about. The question was never on the Iranian side. No one really expected that the new Iranian president would not engage with the IAEA at all. Earlier in November 2019, an IAEA inspector was not allowed on a nuclear cite and had her accreditation canceled. In November 2020, Iranian lawmakers passed a law that mandated the halt of the IAEA inspections and not to allow inspectors on the nuclear sites, as well as the resuming of uranium enrichment, unless the US sanctions are lifted. In January 2021, there were threats by Iranian lawmakers that IAEA inspectors would be expelled. Yet, the new Iranian President still plays ball with the IAEA.

It is naïve to think that Iran should be expected to act as if there was still a deal but then again, US foreign policy is full of naïve episodes. “The current U.S. administration is no different from the previous one because it demands in different words what Trump demanded from Iran in the nuclear area,” Khamenei was quoted to have said in his first meeting with President Raisi’s cabinet.

“We don’t need a deal – you will just act as if there was still a deal and I will act as if I’m not bound by a deal” seems to be the US government’s line put bluntly. But the ball is actually in Biden’s court. The IAEA Director General is simply buying time, a few months at a time, but ultimately the United States will have to start moving. In a diplomatic tone, Grossi referred on Sunday to many commentators and journalists who are urging that it is time.

I just don’t see any signs on Biden’s side to move in the right direction. The current nuclear talks we have that started in June in Vienna are not even direct diplomatic talks and were put on hold until the outcome of Iran’s presidential elections were clear. US hesitance is making Grossi’s job impossible. The narrative pushed by so many in the US foreign policy space, namely that the big bad wolf Trump is still the one to blame, is slowly fading and reaching its expiry date, as Biden approaches the one-year mark of his presidency.

Let’s not forget that the US is the one that left and naturally is the one that has to restart the process, making the parties come back to the table. The US broke the deal. Biden can’t possibly be expecting that the other side will be the one extending its hand to beg for forgiveness. The US government is the one that ruined the multi-year, multilateral efforts of the complex dance that was required to get to something like the JCPOA – a deal that Republicans thought was never going to be possible because “you can’t negotiate with Iran”. You can, but you need skilled diplomats for that. Blinken is no Kerry. Judging from Blinken’s diplomacy moves with China and on other issues, I just don’t think that the Biden Administration has what it takes to get diplomacy back on track. If he follows the same line with Iran we won’t see another JCPOA in Biden’s term. Several weeks ago, Biden said that there are other options with Iran if diplomacy fails, in a White House meeting with Israel’s new prime minister Bennett. I don’t think that anyone in the foreign policy space buys that Biden would launch a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But I don’t think that team Biden can get to a diplomatic agreement either. Biden and Blinken are still stuck in the 2000, the time when others would approach the US no matter what, irrespective of whose fault it was. “You will do as I say” has never worked in the history of US foreign policy. That’s just not going to happen with Iran and the JCPOA. To expect otherwise is unreasonable. The whole “Trump did it” line is slowly and surely reaching its expiry date – as with anything else on the domestic and foreign policy plane. Biden needs to get his act together. The clock is ticking.

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Middle East

Elections represent an opportunity for stability and unity in Libya



With just over 100 days until landmark elections in Libya, political leaders must join forces to ensure the vote is free, fair and inclusive, the UN envoy for the country told the Security Council on Friday. 

Ján Kubiš, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) briefed ambassadors on developments ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections due to take place on 24 December. 

They were agreed under a political roadmap stemming from the historic October 2020 ceasefire between Libya’s rival authorities, and the establishment of a Government of National Unity (GNU) earlier this year. 

At the crossroads 

“Libya is at a crossroads where positive or negative outcomes are equally possible,” said Mr. Kubiš.  “With the elections there is an opportunity for Libya to move gradually and convincingly into a more stable, representative and civilian track.” 

He reported that the House of Representatives has adopted a law on the presidential election, while legislation for the parliamentary election is being finalized and could be considered and approved within the coming weeks.  

Although the High National Election Commission (HNEC) has received the presidential election law, another body, the High State Council, complained that it had been adopted without consultation. 

Foreign fighter threat 

The HNEC chairman has said it will be ready to start implementation once the laws are received, and will do everything possible to meet the 24 December deadline. 

“Thus, it is for the High National Election Commission to establish a clear electoral calendar to lead the country to the elections, with support of the international community, for the efforts of the Government of National Unity, all the respective authorities and institutions to deliver as free and fair, inclusive and credible elections as possible under the demanding and challenging conditions and constraints,” said Mr. Kubiš.  

“The international community could help create more conducive conditions for this by facilitating the start of a gradual withdrawal of foreign elements from Libya without delay.” 

Young voters eager 

The UN envoy also called for countries and regional organizations to provide electoral observers to help ensure the integrity and credibility of the process, as well as acceptance of the results. 

He also welcomed progress so far, including in updating the voter registry and the launch of a register for eligible voters outside the country. 

So far, more than 2.8 million Libyans have registered to vote, 40 per cent of whom are women.  Additionally, more than half a million new voters will also be casting their ballots. 

“Most of the newly registered are under 30, a clear testament to the young generation’s eagerness to take part in determining the fate of their country through a democratic process. The Libyan authorities and leaders must not let them down,” said Mr. Kubiš. 

He stressed that the international community also has a responsibility to support the positive developments in Libya, and to stand firm against attempts at derailment.  

“Not holding the elections could gravely deteriorate the situation in the country, could lead to division and conflict,” he warned.  “I urge the Libyan actors to join forces and ensure inclusive, free, fair parliamentary and presidential elections, which are to be seen as the essential step in further stabilizing and uniting Libya.”

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Middle East

The Remnants of Civil War: Wanning Stability as Deraa Slips into Mayhem



The infamous Syrian civil war is etched into history forever. A decade-long conflict that claimed almost half a million lives, razed towns, and displaced millions. While the Arab spring is touted as the flicker of angst that sparked the catastrophe, the Syrian uprising began in the quaint city of Deraa. A southwestern city bordering Jordan, Deraa is widely attributed as the birthplace of the upheaval that upended Syria back in 2011 and onwards. However, while the devastating chaos has since mostly subsided, the city remains the epicenter of insidious instability as rebels maintain a domesticated stronghold despite government resistance. And while a fragile negotiation holds the last flicker of hope for the entrapped civilians, it is not a steady ground yet to expect a haven in the war-wrecked country.

The rebels fighting the government of President Bashar al-Assad seized control of Deraa right after the skirmishes turned into conflict before finally escalating into a full-fledged war. Their grip, however, lasted until 2018. With the fall of ISIS and the diffusion of Kurdish fighters to the northern frontier, the Russian-backed regime besieged multiple cities across Syria. The government campaign lasted months as brutal fighting undertook major cities under the control of the rebels. Weeks of fighting eventually led the government forces to overpower the rebels in Aleppo, Deraa, and Idlib. With no alternative, the rebels resorted to surrender. While Moscow brokered a peace agreement, also known as the ‘Reconciliation Accords,’ all was not well – especially in Deraa.

The Russian-backed forces took control of the city and most of the rebels either joined the government forces or handed over heavy weaponry in exchange for a safe exit to government-controlled regions in Syria. However, a few rebels retained control over a slew of areas within the city. With the help of influence within the forces of the regime, the rebels managed to hook control of the southern half of the city; which eventually became known as the eponymous district of Deraa al-Balad, while the northern half stood as the stronghold of the Assad regime.

Since the government seized the city, the escalation has developed into a routine for the civilians. While the genocidal tendencies no longer run rampant in Syria, artillery still rains like purgatory over the civilians as government forces try to permeate the southern region. The government forces have tried to impregnate the outskirts of Deraa al-Balad yet have continuously failed to topple the hold of the opposition leaders. In response, the roads are barricaded to surround the rebels, strangle their ammunition, and subdue their resistance. Instead, civilians have suffered starvation and casualties. Recently in July, an escalation resulted in the deaths of 18 civilians at the hands of the government forces as violence engulfed the city while the government forces attempted to breach the city.

A question is frequently posited; why do the government forces want to infiltrate the city so badly? Especially when the rebels have already surrendered heavy weaponry to the Syrian army. The foremost reason is the strategic location of Deraa al-Balad. The city is extremely proximate to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights: a strategic front touted as a key ground eyed by Iran’s proxies in Syria. The Iranian forces in the echelons of the Syrian army are driven by a motivation to gain access in the city to deploy forces on the southern front of Deraa. Meanwhile, the Russian offensive is at play to completely subdue the rebels to gain a whelming influence over Syria. Thus, the ulterior agendas of Iran and Russia could be labeled as the primary catalyst behind the raging military action around the city.

Another reason could be the desire of President Bashar al-Assad to crush opposition in every which way possible to avoid another scare in the future. The offense is clear in Idlib, Aleppo, and Deraa as the government forces are prudent in maintaining a pivotal position over the rebels to allow leverage if any faction decides to coagulate against the regime. Even during elections, almost a third of the Syrian population was barred from voting, including Deraa al-Balad, where mass demonstrations were staged to denounce Mr. Bashar al-Assad.

With his fourth stint in the office, President Assad has geared a renewed strategy to infiltrate the city of Deraa. The government now aims to deploy more forces in the city, run more rigorous checks and searches while gaining control of the frequented checkpoints of Deraa al-Balad. Moreover, the regime has demanded a surrender of soft weapons as well as a handover of the wanted opposition figures spewing venom against the regime. However, the rebel negotiators have called out for a peaceful transfer of all opposition leaders to Jordon or Turkey: a key point of contention. Furthermore, the leaders of Deraa have voiced their right to hold soft weapons and deny a thorough house search under the conditions of the 2018 Reconciliation accords. The impasse, however, exists as negotiations are teetering on a thin rope to somehow avoid chaos and bag a mutual consensus.

Since 2018, the Assad regime is accused of severing necessities from the city of Deraa al-Balad. Human rights observers have voiced concerns as the government forces continue to weaponize aid to bend the rebels to their will. International humanitarian organizations have cited that the government forces don’t differentiate between the civilians and the rebel fighters as hundreds of innocent civilians have been brutally killed since the government’s siege of northern Deraa. Now as the negotiations falter so does the standard of living of the civilians. Their lives have been forced to get accustomed to a constant fear of bombardment while barely surviving without food, medicines, or electricity.

Approximately 24,000 residents have been displaced while close to 12,000 still remain entrapped as government forces perpetually clash with the rebels. The harrowing reality is if the negotiations fail to settle the dispute, and the government’s assault progresses further, then surely the city of Deraa al-Balad would fall into a humanitarian crisis. A lasting solution is required, not a ceasefire, as both rebels and the government forces are not civil enough to maintain a passage of peace without going ballistic. The government (and the allied forces) should stop using civilians as scapegoats to lure the rebels and achieve geopolitical objectives. Instead, the government should strive for an inclusive society to put an end to the spiral of civil war – once and for all.

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