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African Union, Israel and the crisis of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam



 – First: My analysis of the statement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo to deny its role in the Renaissance Dam, and its endorsement (indirectly) of Israel’s role in the Renaissance Dam, and a new analysis for the first time on (the relationship of the Israeli statement in Cairo with Washington’s strategy in encircling the Chinese Silk Road initiative in the region and establishing a new security umbrella)

 – Second: The role of the United States of America in persuading the African countries to accept the Israel’s membership as an observer within the African Union in the face of Chinese expansion and influence

– Third: The relationship between the discoveries of oil and Gas fields within the territorial waters of the Mediterranean and the Israeli pressure on Egypt through (the water threat), and the new game to distract Cairo by dragging it to (the clash outside its regional sphere of influence in the eastern Mediterranean, not the Middle East)

 – Fourth: Analyzing the content of the statements of the former Ethiopian ambassador to Israel (Hilawi Youssef) for the Israeli role in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

– Fifth: The vision of the Israeli think tanks and their experts for the Israeli benefits from (Israel’s deepening of the Renaissance Dam crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia)

– Sixth: The publication of Israeli military intelligence sites for the Israeli role in the Renaissance Dam, and the reasons for Cairo’s silence about Tel Aviv’s role (according to the Israeli analysis)

   Perhaps this analysis is completely different from the previous analyzes circulating about the reasons and significance of accepting Israel’s membership, and the most dangerous (its timing) as an observer within the (African Union) after the session of the (UN Security Council) which was held on July 1, 2021 to discuss the crisis of the Renaissance Dam between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, which decided to refer the file to the African Union once again, and of course everyone was suddenly amazed at the speed of Israel’s penetration of the seat of the (African Union) as an observer in the same month of the Security Council session referred to, despite the postponement of the Israeli membership application for several years past, in addition to linking the Egyptian researcher to Washington’s decision suddenly and for the first time to appoint (a special American envoy  In the Horn of Africa region, led by Ethiopia) in the context of (the re-administration of US President “Joe Biden” to read the scene inside Ethiopia and the African Union, and transform the US-Chinese competition on both sides of the Red Sea into (a united security umbrella under the US to confront Chinese expansion with the help of Israel as an ally of Washington within the African Union itself).

  It is the same trend that the Egyptian researcher analyzed, with the presence of:

 (Some American pressures on African countries to provide an opportunity for Israel as an eye to Washington within the (African Union) itself to confront Chinese expansion and penetration through the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis)

  Perhaps the reason that made me adopt this new analysis, regarding (the American role within the African Union to accept Israel within it after referring the Renaissance Dam file to the African Union), is my meeting and discussion with the current member of the Ethiopian Parliament (Mohamed Al-Arousi) in its new session, within a group of researchers and experts to discuss the Renaissance Dam crisis and the Ethiopian viewpoint on it in a clear academic way.

   After I have finished my analysis on the development of all potential solutions, including some new innovative solutions that I have analyzed to solve the raised Renaissance Dam crisis, and commenting on the words of other analysts, I have directed the same question that has always occupied me to the Ethiopian Member of Parliament (Mohamed Al-Arousi), as an opportunity to ask him, about: (Why is Israel now being accepted into the African Union?), so the Ethiopian parliamentarian’s answer was:

 “Ethiopia is not the lonely one that accepted Israel’s membership, there are 54 other African countries within the African Union, and of course the majority agreed”

  Also, my other question to the educated Ethiopian parliamentarian, who read very professionally, astonished me on a personal level as an extraordinary person capable of dialogue in this thorny file in all its aspects and dimensions, which opened to me because of my conversation with him other analytical horizons, about (the Israeli role in the Renaissance Dam).

   The Ethiopian parliamentarian’s answer came, that Israel is not greedy for the Nile waters as we promote in Cairo, by referring to (the statement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo about denying the Israeli role in the Renaissance Dam), which I will respond to it as an academic political analyst in a different and detailed way that everyone completely overlooked. With my attempt, as an Egyptian academic, to review all of the Israeli academic studies on Israel’s projects and plans to obtain water, whether through the Jordan River, a project that Jordan has repeatedly rejected, or through the Nile River.

   Knowing that the Ethiopian parliamentarian “Mohamed Al-Arousi”, responded to my discussion with him and my question about this matter, regarding (Israel’s desire to partner with the Ethiopian side to obtain the waters of the Nile), and the Ethiopian researcher “Mohamed Al-Arousi” has responded to it, that:

 “Israel has already agreed with Cairo several years ago to transfer the waters of the Nile to Israel through the desert or desert of Serapeum in Ismailia and the Sinai lands through the construction of several tunnels that allow the transfer of the Nile waters to Israel”

   The Egyptian researcher tried to search for this point in particular, which I did not find any basis for its truth, in addition to my pursuing and referring to (previous statements by the Egyptian military officials), regarding the denial of this matter, about the “Sarabium Desert Project to transfer the Nile waters from Egypt to Israel through the construction of tunnels” to transport water to Tel Aviv.

   Accordingly, the Egyptian researcher tried during the last period to analyze the various visions and analyzes of the Israeli, Ethiopian and American think tanks, their experts and politicians to find out the aspects of the Israeli benefits in confronting Egypt from the construction of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, especially since there are accusations leveled at the Israeli side from Cairo about the Israeli benefit from the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis, due to Israel’s strong relations with the Ethiopian side, as Israel owns huge investments in the fields of (agriculture, industry and military defense), and Ethiopia is considered a distinct strategic location for Israel that can be used by Israel as a strong pressure card on Egypt.  The Egyptian researcher will analyze a number of the following points:

 – First: My analysis of the Israeli embassy in Cairo’s statement to deny its role in the Renaissance Dam, and its endorsement (indirectly) of Israel’s role in the Renaissance Dam, and a new analysis for the first time on (the relationship of the Israeli statement in Cairo with Washington’s strategy in encircling the Chinese Silk Road initiative in the region and establishing a new security umbrella)

  I have heard, as many have heard, that Israel has issued a statement denying its relationship with the Renaissance Dam, and the Egyptian researcher made a comprehensive analysis of the statement of the Israeli embassy from an academic and research standpoint, and it became clear to her the following:

 1) When the Egyptian researcher returned to the original statement issued by the Israeli embassy in Cairo, the Egyptian researcher found the opposite, regarding that:

 “The goal of the Israeli statement is to confirm that Israel’s role in the Renaissance Dam will not affect its relationship with Cairo with regard to the Israel’s management agreement for the Renaissance Dam”

  Despite the announcement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo, that:

 “Israel has no investments in the Renaissance Dam, and that all the talk in this regard is rumors to spoil the relationship between the Egyptian and Israeli regimes”

  2) Although everyone celebrated this Israeli statement, we will note here that the same Israeli statement revealed another, more dangerous part of the Israeli plan with regard to the Renaissance Dam, when it confirmed that:

  (All of Israel’s relationship with the dam is administrative only, and that the Ethiopian government signed an agreement with the Israeli Electricity Company, to manage the water projects that will be built on the Blue Nile, including the Renaissance Dam, and the other three dams that will be established later to generate hydroelectric power)

 3) Based on the same Israeli statement, what may be understood from it is that:

  “Israel will be the controller of the waters of the Blue Nile, and of all dams and projects based on the Nile, especially in Ethiopia, in addition to the Israeli role towards the construction of new dams, which will be established in the future, and perhaps it will determine the proportions of the incoming and outgoing water starting from the source of the dam, starting from (Tana Lake), until the downstream in the Mediterranean Sea”

 4) Analysts in the West and the Ethiopian side may go further to explain the reasons for the recent Israeli appearance in the Renaissance Dam project, and whether this has any significance about its attempt to exert pressure on Cairo, in addition to questioning (a matter that is difficult to verify), regarding:

 The reasons for activating the Egyptian-Israeli joint action in (the Sheikh Sabah Canal in Al-Arish in Egypt)? And whether this is due to the Israeli role in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which American and Western experts confirm, as explicitly stipulating the (Egyptian-Israeli cooperation in the Sheikh Sabah Canal in Al-Arish).  in Egypt), considering that this was mainly part of the “secret annexes” of the peace agreement between the late Egyptian President “Anwar Sadat” with Israel in 1979.

 5) The Egyptian researcher also linked between the statement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo about denying the Israeli role in the Renaissance Dam and the tour of the new American envoy to the Horn of Africa, whose name is (Jeffrey Feltman), as a Jewish figure close to the Israeli circles, since the first of last June in 2021, and for a period of (Six days), during which “Feltman” toured the Gulf and Africa, which included (the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar in addition to Kenya), with the aim of discussing ways of cooperation in supporting the stability and development of the Horn of Africa, in addition to finding satisfactory solutions for all parties in the file of the Renaissance Dam, as stated in the “US State Department’s statement” on Feltman’s visit.

 6) As it became clear to the Egyptian researcher, “Feltman’s visit to the Gulf capitals” came within the framework of the recommendations of senior thinkers of think tanks in the United States of America at the end of October 2020, and these recommendations came as a reaction and a warning to the (American State Department) against the policies pursued by the administration of the former American president “Donald Trump”, which was often controversial because it sparked many whirlwinds in several regions around the world, including the regions (the Gulf and the Horn of Africa, of which Ethiopia is located).

 7) The timing of the issuance of the statement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo may have come based on (joint US-Israeli coordination), especially after the escalation of the climate of competition between the Gulf states over the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia, which led to the emergence of security and geopolitical challenges on both sides of the Red Sea in the face of both Washington and Tel Aviv, which seek to allay the fears of the Gulf states and Egypt.

 8) Therefore, the recommendations of the American think tanks were represented in the direction of easing the competition of the Gulf countries in the march towards the Horn of Africa, East Africa and Ethiopia mainly in order not to impede the American cooperation with Israel to protect the sea straits in the Middle East such as: (Bab Al-Mandab Strait, Hormuz Strait and Gibraltar.

 9) The statement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo, in agreement with Washington, also aims to distract Egypt and the Gulf by (transferring conflicts between the Middle Eastern countries from the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia to another arena, which is primarily the Mediterranean). Therefore, Israel has signed an agreement with Greece and Cyprus to transfer gas and energy to Europe based upon the recommendations from Washington in the face of Cairo, so it is expected that the arena of competition in the coming period will be the eastern Mediterranean region, with Israeli help for Washington’s policies and plans, as we mentioned.

 10) Perhaps the most dangerous thing, which is no one paid attention to, is (encouraging Washington and Israel to bring Gulf investments to the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia to achieve balance with China), which is what actually happened with Ethiopia, which received financial packages as aid from Gulf countries estimated at three billion dollars, in addition to opening of several Gulf countries for projects, investments and development projects in a number of countries in the Horn of Africa and encouraging the establishment of industrial centers in those African countries in the east of the African continent in cooperation with the Arab Gulf states under US-Israeli supervision and encouragement in the face of Chinese expansion and penetration in East Africa, the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia.

 11) The statement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo considered as an (American-Israeli attempt) according to the recommendations of the American think tanks to (integrate the East African region with both Egypt and Sudan to form a unified security umbrella for the Red Sea), to become one of the seas which completely dominated by the United States of America as a step within  the (strategy of encircling China’s giant project “Chinese Silk Road Initiative”)

  Accordingly, it is possible to link (the statement of the Israeli embassy in Cairo) to allay Egypt’s concerns about Israel’s role in the Renaissance Dam (by creating a new position by the United States of America of the American envoy to the Horn of Africa), as a considered solution among the other measures encouraged by the specialists in the American and Israeli foreign affairs themselves, as an attempt to (separate the files of the Middle East and the Horn of Africa from each other), and to pay more attention to the region of the Horn of Africa, East Africa, the Nile Basin countries and Ethiopia, and to integrate Egypt, Sudan, and even the Arab Gulf with them, at the expense of the Middle East.

 – Second: The role of the United States of America in persuading the African countries to accept the Israel’s membership as an observer within the African Union in the face of Chinese expansion and influence

   The Egyptian researcher’s analysis came differently, regarding the fact that the United States of America itself has involved Israel within the (African Union) to serve as (an eye for America) within the (African Union), and thus passing its decisions. And my mentioned analysis referred and based on a large set of indicators and the highest priorities for the United States of America in confronting of  China, as follows:

 1) The Egyptian researcher based her analysis on the response of the Ethiopian researcher and the current member of the Ethiopian Parliament, “Mohamed Al-Arousi” during her discussion with him and my specific question to him, concerning:

 – What is the significance and interpretation of the reasons and “timing” of accepting of the Israel’s membership as an observer within the (African Union), after discussing the crisis directly within the UN Security Council?

 So, the response of the Ethiopian researcher and parliamentarian “Mohamed Al-Arousi” to the Egyptian researcher was completely sound and logical, and his assertion:

 “It is not only Ethiopia in the African Union that has the right to accept Israel’s membership, but there are more than 54 other African countries, who have agreed unanimously to accept Israel’s membership as an observer within the African Union”

 2) Accordingly, this proposition, or rather the Ethiopian defense of itself about the reasons for Israel’s acceptance now within the corridors of the (African Union) to discuss the crisis of the Renaissance Dam, and the approval of the (majority of the 54 African countries) for Israel’s membership, as a:

 (Conclusive evidence in itself by the Egyptian researcher to prove of the American pressured role and support for Israel, its first ally, as an (eye) for Washington within the corridors of the (African Union) itself to confront China”

 3) Perhaps this dangerous and unprecedented analysis is what the Egyptians and Arabs did not pay attention to, in view of (Israel’s inability alone to pass its request regarding accepting its membership request for many years in the African Union until after a session of the UN Security Council was held and the crisis file was referred to the African Union again), and therefore, it confirmed that (Washington itself is behind Tel Aviv’s game to pass the agenda of the United States of America in the face of Chinese competition in the Horn of Africa and East Africa), which is Ethiopia at the forefront and in the heart of it.

 4) The reasons for this (negative role of the United States of America within the UN Security Council) can also be explained during its discussion of the “Ethiopian Renaissance Dam” project, and the analysis of how Washington managed its talks from the beginning in favor of Ethiopia and Israel, with some other privileges granted to Sudan without Egypt. As well as the importance of East Africa and the Horn of Africa for the American and Chinese influence in the Horn of Africa and East Africa.

 5) We also find the attempt of the United States of America to exert pressure on Ethiopia and the countries of the Nile Basin region mainly through (facilitating the penetration and penetration of the Israeli dimension to the security of Ethiopia and African countries in several files in order to serve Washington in the face of China).

 6) The United States of America is trying to apply American pressure through Israel not to Ethiopian technological cooperation with China, in view of (the partnership project between the Ethiopian government with the Chinese e-commerce giant “Ali Baba Group”, to create the (electronic global trade platform) (eWTP), which is believed that:

 “It is such a Chinese initiative to change the rules of the game in the digital economy within Ethiopia, East Africa and the Horn of Africa in the face of American influence and penetration”

 7) In the face of (Chinese technological penetration into Ethiopia), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) launched a project in Ethiopia, known as (Digital Health), with the aim of enhancing digital information about the Ethiopian health sector, and improving the quality of health system services in Ethiopia within five years.

 8) Also, the (US Agency for International Development) announced the work of (American technology partnership with local Ethiopian universities) to provide training courses to develop competencies in health innovations and digital electronic solutions, in the face of China.

 9) In addition, immediately after Ethiopia announced its first digital strategy in May 2020, “Beilin Seyoum” the spokeswoman for the Ethiopian Prime Minister, confirmed that:

  “Ethiopia welcomes the Chinese support for the implementation of this strategy, which means more technological cooperation between Ethiopia and China”

 10) This also coincided with another (technological competition) between China and the United States of America within Ethiopia, especially with the announcement of the US Embassy in Addis Ababa that the (US Agency for International Development and the Ethiopian Ministry of Finance) signed a (development partnership agreement with the aim of supporting the education, health and digital agriculture sectors), as well as Washington’s support for Ethiopia’s efforts to move to the “middle-income countries” category, which means more US-Chinese competition within Ethiopia.

 11) The United States of America used its allies in Ethiopia to confront China, which was represented in the cooperation of the (Japanese International Cooperation Agency) (JICA) to enhance the American penetration in the field of technology in Ethiopia. On March 2020, a competition was held in cooperation with the (Ethiopian government, the US Agency for International Development and the Japan International Cooperation Agency),  entitled: (Solve IT 2020), with the aim of supporting Ethiopian youth to develop innovative projects and ideas, promote entrepreneurship, and find solutions to local problems through the dependency of the digital technology sector.

 12) Experts agree that this (American-Japanese) competition in Ethiopia is a kind of competition with the annual competition held by (the Chinese Huawei Company) to discover and nurture talented youth at the technological level in Ethiopia.

 13) Here, it seems that the political aspect in the US-Ethiopian relations largely overshadows the competition between China and the United States in Ethiopia, especially in the (technological and digital) sectors.

 14) All of these factors, in addition to Washington’s own desire to be present within the African Union in the face of Chinese influence and penetration itself, and Beijing’s expressing its intention to “support the issue of technical negotiation in view of China’s experience in the management and construction of dams between the Egyptian and Sudanese sides in the face of Ethiopia within the African Union”.

 15) The United States of America supports its Israeli ally to be directly involved in the issue of the “Renaissance Dam” linked to the Nile River, in order to impose its political and security presence, which will authorize it at a later stage (the revival of Israeli projects aimed at delivering the waters of the Nile to the settlements in occupied Palestine lands), giving up the seriousness of what Israel is currently suffering from with regard to its “water security”, in light of its increasing desire to expand and bring more settlers to Israel.

16) It is mentioned in this context that America and Israel’s project to transfer the Nile waters to occupied Palestine was one of the most important projects presented in the (multilateral talks), which were held in the “Vienna round” in 1992, where “the Israeli negotiators insisted not to give up on that, under the pretext of  Israel’s need for water in the future, including the waters of the Nile”.

  17) We find here that one of the Israeli negotiators at the time, (Dan Salazevsky), said it explicitly, that:

  “If anyone means true peace between Israel and Egypt and its neighbours, one should not argue about water”

  18) The most dangerous analysis of the Egyptian researcher is:

  “The United States of America sought to make Ethiopia a corridor towards Africa, and a strategic outlet for it that would allow it to open political, security and military channels in the Horn of Africa that would be supportive in its ongoing conflict with China, through American cooperation with the countries of the region in East Africa through its ally of Israel, through their cooperation with countries, such as: (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti) from within the (African Union) itself, and this was reinforced by developments in the Red Sea region, especially Yemen”

  19) The validity of the Egyptian researcher’s analysis regarding the United States’ assistance to the Israeli side to accept its membership as an (observer within the African Union) can also be inferred through direct and explicit statements announced by former Israeli Prime Minister “Benjamin Netanyahu” before the Ethiopian Parliament on July 2016, during his visit to “Addis Ababa”, with “Netanyahu” literally confirming that:

 “We will support Ethiopia with technology to benefit from its water resources”

  20) Here, we find that Netanyahu’s statements are a clear support for Addis Ababa in the issue of its dispute with Egypt regarding the Renaissance Dam, especially since it coincided with the opening of the first phase of the dam on the waters of the Blue Nile by the Ethiopian authorities in the same month for his visit on July 2016.

  21) We find a succession of Israeli public statements in support of Ethiopia, where the Deputy Director-General for African Affairs in the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs “Ainat Shelin”, announced, in December 2019, about:

  “Tel Aviv’s readiness to “share its extensive experience in water management” with Addis Ababa”

 22) Previously, the former Israeli ambassador to Ethiopia “Raphael Morav”, announced that:

  “Israel is working to introduce a modern irrigation system in Ethiopia to participate in water, irrigation, agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, dam management, and all Ethiopian water projects”

  Throughout this comprehensive analysis by the Egyptian researcher of the path (the US-Chinese competition in the Ethiopian interior, and Washington’s alliance with Israel), the Egyptian researcher approaches the perspective that the US-Chinese competition in East Africa and the Horn of Africa, and the intensive Chinese investments in Ethiopia, as well as (the convergence of interests  In this context, both the American and Israeli parties may have pushed to coordinate between them and put severe pressure on African countries to ensure Israel’s participation in water projects in Ethiopia and Africa, which comes through the back gate of American pressure on African countries to accept Israel’s membership as an observer within the African Union to confront  The growth of Chinese influence itself.

 – Third: The relationship between the discoveries of oil and Gas fields within the territorial waters of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Israeli pressures on Egypt through (the water threat), and the new game to distract Cairo by dragging it to (the clash outside its regional sphere of influence in the eastern Mediterranean, not the Middle East)

  A number of the same Israeli academic analyses pointed out to the Israel’s desire, and later inform the Egyptian researcher under the administration of President “Biden” on several reports of American think tanks closely related to the political circles in Washington, which aimed to chart a path (limiting the increase in Egypt’s influence in the region  The Middle East) and distracting Cairo by dragging it to (the clash outside its regional sphere of influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, not the Middle East), to create a kind of (regional balance), which allows for Israel’s regional superiority, especially after the discoveries of oil fields within the territorial waters in the Mediterranean, which may lead to (Egypt’s leadership regionally and making it a center for gas export), and with the Egyptian government buying heavy weapons and aircraft carriers.

  Israel found its insignificance in putting pressure on Egypt through the (water threat), which hits the Egyptian economy, as we know that the lack of water quantities may cause a mass exodus in addition to the collapse of the economy. Here, we find that the most prominent Israeli pressures on Egypt through the “water threat” to it, through:

  1) What many data and leaks indicate that “the negotiating mechanism that Ethiopia follows with Egypt was laid by (a negotiating team in the Israeli Foreign Ministry), including former Israeli Foreign Minister “Shaul Mofaz”, and the Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iraqi origin, who is said to be of Iraqi origin, besides he is a key partner in managing the Qatari Al-Jazeera channel, whose name is “David Kimhi”, who was working as a former agent in the Israeli intelligence service, known as “Mossad”.

  2) The Israeli government also opened a “popular subscription” in the Central Bank of Israel to collect donations directed to bonds and permits to serve the “Renaissance Dam” project, leading to the Ethiopian government bringing in many Israeli experts and technicians to work in the trial and implementation stages throughout the second phase of building the dam.

  3) This was already reveals by the former undersecretary of the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation “Haider Yousef”, with his assertion, about:

 “There is an entire floor in the Ethiopian Ministry of Water dedicated entirely to Israeli water experts”

  4) Tel Aviv seeks, through this, to push towards recognition as a “Middle Eastern state in the first place,” and as a party to the waters of the Nile from the Ethiopian gate, which Israel sees as a right after that to benefit from the waters of the Nile.

  5) The announcement of (Israel, Cyprus and Greece) in January 2020, the signing of (an agreement to extend a pipeline under the Mediterranean, to export gas to Europe), a wide debate in Cairo about: (the reasons and feasibility of establishing this Israeli line with Cyprus and Greece in the face of Cairo), and the extent of its impact on Egyptian planning to transform into a (regional gas center in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East).

  6) Here, we find that the new (Israeli-Greek-Cypriot) line, which was called “EastMed”, will extend under the sea for a long distance in order to (transfer natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean region to Europe through the Israeli gate), with indications about “Israel deliberately did this, so that Egypt would not turn into a regional power in the region vis-à-vis Israel”

  7) The signing of this Israeli agreement with the eastern Mediterranean countries, namely (Greece and Cyprus), comes at a time when competition for natural gas is raging between (the eastern Mediterranean countries and Turkey in the face of Egypt as well), with the presence of (Turkish efforts and plans to establish a foothold and a foothold for Turkey). In the agreements concluded regarding gas exploration and its export to Europe), and disputes over the demarcation of the maritime borders between (Ankara, Cyprus and Greece), which also explains the reasons for Turkey’s support for Ethiopia in the file of the Renaissance Dam, the intensity of the presence of Turkish companies inside Ethiopia and the increase of Turkish direct investments inside Ethiopia in the recent period as a powerful pressure card in the face of Cairo, which is the same Israeli way of thinking as well.

  8) The Egyptian researcher analyzes this matter as:

  “The Israeli announcement with Greece and Cyprus of the agreement to establish the new gas pipeline, called “EastMed”, opened the door to doubts about the real reasons behind this Israeli agreement, which was signed by three countries that have close relations with Egypt, and the (impact of this Israeli line between Greece and Cyprus to transport gas and energy to Europe), is based on Egypt’s project to be transformed into a (regional energy center) in the eastern Mediterranean, which mainly depends on the export of gas to Europe”

 9) Also the analysis of Israel’s intentional entry into competition with Egypt over natural gas and energy in the eastern Mediterranean, with Egypt’s advantages related to its proximity to gas fields discovered in both (Cyprus and Israel), as well as Egypt’s possession of a strong gas infrastructure, and its uniqueness in owning  Two natural gas liquefaction stations in the areas of (Idku and Damietta) in Egypt.

10) Here, it is possible to link (the Israeli competition with Egypt to acquire natural gas and energy fields in the eastern Mediterranean and the Israeli influence in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), with the analysis that the “EastMed agreement between Israel, Greece and Cyprus”, may represent a harmful alternative to the Egyptian plans to export gas to the eastern Mediterranean region through the liquefaction stations owned by Cairo in (Idku and Damietta), with Israel deliberately entering into a competition with Cairo in the eastern Mediterranean region to prove its influence.

 11) From the Egyptian researcher’s point of view, (Egypt’s only pressure card against Israel is Italy), given that Italy has not yet agreed to the project to transfer natural gas and energy pipelines to Europe through Israel, Greece and Cyprus, given that Italy is the last point in the aforementioned line to connect it to Europe.

  Hence, we find that these challenges related to the implementation of the Israeli line in the face of Egypt came in light of an Israeli competition with Cairo to set its foot as a major player in (exporting eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe), which is another analysis of the existence of a real Israeli competition with Cairo to play a major regional role, whether in Eastern Mediterranean or the Middle East in general.

 – Fourth: Analyzing the content of the statements of the former Ethiopian ambassador to Israel (Hilawi Youssef) for the Israeli role in the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

  Analyses indicate that Israel is using the Renaissance Dam (as a pressure and profit card) at the same time, and the contents of the speeches, messages and statements of (Hilawi Youssef), the former Ethiopian ambassador in Tel Aviv, and its indicators can be analyzed, according to the incident today from the great Israeli role in “Addis Ababa” and its various investments, especially  In the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, through the following:

  1) The Ethiopian ambassador (Youssef Hilawy) confirmed in some previous statements that there are more than 240 Israeli investors in Ethiopia.

  2) As well as his most dangerous assertion, with (the ideological link) between Ethiopia and Israel, where Israel has ideological relations with Ethiopia, through the Ethiopian Jews, as Ethiopia includes a large number of (the Falasha Jews), and a large number of them are active in the service of the Israeli army after their emigration to Israel.

  3) In confirmation of the statements of Ambassador (Hilawi Youssef), we find that in 2016, the visit of the Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin Netanyahu) to Addis Ababa, which coincided with the opening of the (first phase) of the Renaissance Dam, which raised many questions about the coincidence of the matter.

  4) Most importantly, following Netanyahu’s visit to Ethiopia, several reports were issued in 2017, which indicated that Ethiopia had concluded (aircraft defenses with Israel to protect the Renaissance Dam) from any external aggression, but Israel did not comment on these statements until October 22, 2019, however, when negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan were complicated, and the United States entered the negotiations as a party, the (Israeli Embassy in Cairo) issued a statement denying Ethiopia’s use of any Israeli air defense systems to protect the dam, or participating in its construction from near or far.

  5) However, there are indications that refute the Israeli defense of the crisis. In 2016, the former Ethiopian ambassador (Hilawi Youssef) to Israel revealed the truth of the matter, saying:

 “Israel manages the electricity project in the Renaissance Dam and provides consultations related to power stations built on the waters of the Blue Nile, in addition to launching agricultural projects within the dam’s plan with Israeli investments in more than 240 Israeli projects”

  6) The Ethiopian Ambassador (Hilawi Youssef) also confirmed in previous statements to the official Ethiopian “Walta News Agency”, that:

  “Ethiopia and Israel are intensifying their cooperation together in the field of combating terrorism, which is a global threat, and Israel is helping Ethiopia in various development activities, including the transfer of modern Israeli agricultural technology to the country”

 7) As confirmed by Ambassador “Youssef Hilawy”, about:

 “The Ethiopian embassy in Israel is working to promote the investment possibilities available in Ethiopia, with the aim of attracting a larger number of potential investors from Israel to the country, and the Ethiopian embassy in Tel Aviv is working in partnership with Ethiopians residing in Israel to attract larger potential Israeli investments into Ethiopia”

  Here, by tracing all the contents of the speeches and messages of Ethiopian officials, especially Ambassador “Youssef Hilawy”, about Ethiopia’s relationship with Tel Aviv, we can conclude the extent of the complexity of those relations between the two parties, to the extent that Israel has penetrated into the Ethiopian interior and participated in water management projects and dams with the Ethiopian side, and providing the Ethiopians with all the necessary technical studies on the Renaissance Dam, which eventually culminated in the acceptance of Israeli membership as an observer within the African Union with Ethiopian and African blessing and with American encouragement to confront Chinese penetration and influence.

– Fifth: The vision of the Israeli think tanks and their experts of the Israeli benefits from (Israel’s deepening of the Renaissance Dam crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia)

  There are many Israeli academic studies that explicitly dealt with how the Israelis benefit from (the Nile water) taking advantage of the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel in 1979, which stipulated cooperation between the two sides to maintain regional security and the security of the region, which are (water delivery projects to Israel, specifically to the settlements. This is the basis that Israel has always sought, whether with regard to benefiting from (the Jordan River or the Nile River), which was strongly rejected in earlier periods by the Egyptian and Jordanian sides.

  – In general, the Egyptian researcher was able to summarize the most prominent of those Israeli academic think tanks and the research studies related to the Israeli benefit from the Nile waters in the first place, as a historical reference that the Egyptian researcher had to mention, to respond to all the Israeli justifications and defenses that say that Israel does not fully view the Nile waters, the most important of these Hebrew studies are:

  1) In 2018, the (Israeli National Security Research Institute) “INNS” published a report in which it explicitly referred to (the political benefit accruing to Israel from deepening the Renaissance Dam crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia).the Israeli researcher “Ofir Winter” said in his article, that:

   “The crisis of the Renaissance Dam and Egypt’s openness to foreign aid in dealing with the water crisis, along with the practical line taken by President Sisi, creates a window to expand the policy of normalization between Egypt and Israel in the field of water management, desalination techniques and huge possibilities for cooperation between the two countries”

  With the Israeli researcher’s assertion, that:

 “This is in the way in which the water resources crisis contributed to strengthening relations between Israel and Jordan”

  2- The most important thing is what the Israeli researcher (Ophir Winter) referred to in his subsequent analyzes, regarding: (the prospects for the State of Israel benefiting from the Renaissance Dam crisis), where he sees that:

  “The idea of ​​reducing the water deficit that Egypt will suffer from in the future will lead it to resort to Israel, which is pioneering in desalination techniques and improving its consumption in irrigating agricultural lands, and thus improving relations between the two countries and enhancing cooperation, and away from the cold policy that Egypt used to deal with Israel”

  3) With the assertion of the Israeli researcher (Ophir Winter), in his important analysis of the extent and how Israel benefits from the Nile water, asserting that:

 “This will serve a variety of interests, including: enhancing Egyptian recognition of the benefits of peace with Israel, and expanding bilateral relations between the two governments and the Israeli and Egyptian parties in both countries”

  4) The researcher (Winter) also indicated in his analysis that:

 “The supreme dream that has been haunting Israel for many years, which is (connecting the Nile branch to Israel and the Israeli benefit from it), this demand, which was met with a categorical Egyptian rejection”.

  5) The Israeli researcher (Ophir Winter) also confirmed in his studies on Israel’s benefit from the Nile waters, that:

  “In the early days of peace, and in the wake of the Camp David agreement, there was interest and negotiations with the Egyptian side about the idea of ​​a project to flow the Nile waters from Egypt to Israel, and here the conditions of the two countries at the present time provide an opportunity to revive the stolen hopes by reversing the roles”

 6) The Israeli think tanks have repeatedly put forward this Israeli desire on how to bring about Israeli rapprochement with the Egyptian side, and to make partnerships and cooperative relations to benefit from the transfer of water from Cairo to Tel Aviv, based on articles and studies that dealt with projects through which it is possible (transferring Nile water to the Israeli settlements).

  7) The most prominent of these Israeli studies was what was known as the “Elisha Kali Project”, which the Israeli engineer Elisha Kali thought about, and to the effect:

  Israel put forward the idea of ​​a water transfer project on the Egyptian side, which included the transfer of a part of the Nile water estimated at 1% annually to supply the Israeli settlements in the “Negev, Gaza Strip and the West Bank”, through pipes that pass under the Suez Canal next to the Egyptian Ismailia region, with a length of up to 200 Km”

 8) In the same vein, the Israeli expert, “Arlo Zorov”, put forward a project for the Israelis to adopt to transfer water from Cairo, through:

 “The Israeli side must work on a project with Egypt, which includes (digging 6 channels under the Suez Canal) working to (push fresh water to a main intake point), to then pump the water to (the Sinai coast) and through sub-channels and tunnels that reach out to the Negev desert in Israel”

 9) We find that most of the Israeli academic and research studies focused on (the issue of securing the delivery of Nile waters to Israeli settlements) as a basic and urgent need for Israel’s security.

10) Several studies in recent years have shown that Israel is going through a crisis that Israeli experts consider to be (very dangerous with regard to water resources), threatening the economy of the occupation entity in an unprecedented manner.

11) Most of the Israeli Center for National Security Studies (INNS) analyzed that in recent years it became clear that many of (the lakes of occupied Palestine, its river basins and groundwater), have reached their lowest level ever since the establishment of the Hebrew state, where they approached (Tiberias Lake) is dangerously off the “black line”, the level below the intake pipes from the water pumps that send the lake’s water to neighboring towns in Israeli settlements.

 12) We find the confirmation of all Israeli studies that to improve the standard of living and build settlements in Israel, it is imperative to secure an increase in water by (600 million cubic meters) each year.  If this percentage fails to be obtained, it will be necessary to secure Israel’s share of water, which will be at the expense of (agricultural projects), which will lead to an economic and social crisis, and will lead to the deterioration of the “population distribution” program in Israel, due to the desire for internal migration and population movement from one place to another, due to, the lack of (water supply in a number of settlements) at the expense of some other settlements.

  Finally, we find that through the Egyptian researcher’s previous presentation of the most prominent of those Israeli academic and research studies on the necessity of coordinating with Cairo to transfer the Nile water to Tel Aviv, this is a (real and tangible evidence of Israel’s use of the Renaissance Dam crisis as a policy of pressure on Egypt) to deliver the Nile water to its lands through  The “policy or theory of reversing the roles”, means putting Egypt in an existential threat position due to the lack of water, and the only solution remains in the hands of Israel, which will become a lifeline to implement its demand to reduce the danger of the dam in exchange for delivering water to the Israeli lands.

 – Sixth: The publication of Israeli military intelligence sites for the Israeli role in the Renaissance Dam, and the reasons for Cairo’s silence towards Tel Aviv’s role  (according to the Israeli analysis)

  What caught the attention of the Egyptian researcher most frankly, reading and analyzing was what (the Israeli DEBKA website) confirmed, that:

 “Ethiopia’s choice of the Israeli (Spider) air defense system came after Ethiopia was convinced of its performance in the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan”

  With the aforementioned site, which is known for its close proximity to (Israeli military intelligence departments), it is claimed that:

 “The Israeli installation of the missile system around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was completed after the Israeli work began in May 2019, considering that it is the first Israeli air defense system abroad that can launch (two types of missiles), the first with a range of 5 km, and the second with a range of 50 kilometer”.

  Several published Israeli studies, referred by the “Israeli DEBKA website”, confirmed that:

 “Ethiopia was, and still is, the spearhead (the Israeli political, economic and military penetration into the African continent), at the expense of the decline of Egyptian influence before the era of President El- Sisi”.

  Israeli analyses on several websites also explicitly indicated that the latest evidence of (the close Israeli relationship with the dam) is the signing of an Israeli company contracts to distribute the electricity that will be generated by the dam to (Kenya and South Sudan), and communications are underway to reach similar agreements with other countries in the (Nile Basin region).

  The most dangerous point from my point of view referred to (the Israeli military intelligence DEBKA website), and its analysis of the reasons for Israel’s focus on Ethiopia in the face of Egypt, by listing the following reasons:

 1) Because Ethiopia’s water share represents more than 85% of the quantities of water in the Blue Nile Basin from the Nile’s water.

 2) Therefore, Israel stood behind the incitement to construct the Renaissance Dam to control water sources under the heading of the (electricity generation).

 3) In the same context, Israel submitted studies to (Rwanda and Congo) to build (three dams) to tighten control over (the waters of the Great Lakes), which supplies the Nile with about (15%) of the water sources.

  Finally, the (Israeli military  DEBKA website),  concluded the matter, by saying that:

  “The Egyptian official silence towards these published Israeli news reports may be due to Cairo’s desire to avoid detonating a crisis with the (Hebrew state), given the war that the Egyptian forces are waging in the Sinai, and it depends in one way or another on the Israeli security and military cooperation in this war, but this does not mean that the Israelis will stop their plans to encircle and strangle Egypt, despite their repeated praise for their close relations with the Egyptian President (Abdel Fattah El-Sisi) and the Egyptian government”

  Hence, the Egyptian researcher concluded, in view of her comprehensive analysis of the (Israeli role in the Renaissance Dam), with the help and supervision of the United States of America to confront its competitor to (China), as its archenemy in the African continent, that Washington exerts intense pressure on its African allies to accept Israel’s membership as an observer within the African Union to discuss  The crisis of the Renaissance Dam, and missing the opportunity for China, which wants to play a (technical negotiating role) during the discussion of the Renaissance Dam file within the (African Union), given also the Israeli ambitions (which were originally published), about the Israeli desire to share the Nile waters with Cairo, and the intensity of the Israeli academic and research studies which are all thrown and poured in this previous direction.

   Thus, we find here (the convergence of the Israeli-American desire and interests to play a role inside Ethiopia), given the (American-Chinese rivalry inside Ethiopia), considering that:

  (China is the largest investor and the largest source of foreign direct investments (FDI) in Ethiopia as well, while the USA is the largest source of aid to Ethiopia)

   Hence, we understand this new final analysis reached by the Egyptian researcher, regarding (the US-Israeli alliance within the African Union in the face of China) that the management of the (file of the Renaissance Dam issue), and the desire of each party to acquire the largest share of interests within this most dangerous file related to  Managing water within the countries of the Blue Nile Basin and Ethiopia, and controlling (Egypt and Sudan), as the two countries downstream of the Nile River.

Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Politics and Economics / Beni Suef University- Egypt. An Expert in Chinese Politics, Sino-Israeli relationships, and Asian affairs- Visiting Senior Researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)/ Lund University, Sweden- Director of the South and East Asia Studies Unit

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West Africa: Extreme poverty rises nearly 3 per cent due to COVID-19



Food insecurity is affecting millions of people in Burkina Faso. © UNICEF/Vincent Treameau

Extreme poverty in West Africa rose by nearly three per cent in 2020, another fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, a UN-backed report launched on Thursday that looks at the socio-impact of the crisis has revealed. 

The proportion of people living on less than $1.90 a day jumped from 2.3 per cent last year to 2.9 per cent in 2021, while the debt burden of countries increased amid slow economic recovery, shrinking fiscal space and weak resource mobilization. 

More than 25 million across the region are struggling to meet their basic food needs. 

Gains annihilated 

The study was published by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in partnership with the West Africa Sub-Regional Office for the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the World Food Programme (WFP). 

Sekou Sangare, the ECOWAS Commissioner for Agriculture, Environment and Water resources, said the pandemic has, in particular, annihilated benefits gained in fighting food insecurity and malnutrition. 

“Even if we are happy with the governments’ response through the mitigation actions they have taken, we have to worry about the residual effects of the health and economic crisis as they are likely to continue disturbing our food systems for a long time while compromising populations access to food, due to multiple factors,” he said

The report highlights the effects of measures aimed at preventing coronavirus spread, such as border closures, movement restrictions and disruption of supply chains. 

Forced to sell 

These measures had an impact on income-generating activities, and on food prices in markets, with small traders, street vendors and casual workers most affected. 

The deteriorating economic situation has adversely affected food security and nutrition in West Africa.  

More than 25 million people are unable to meet their basic food needs, a nearly 35 per cent increase compared to 2020. People have been forced to sell their assets and livelihoods in order to get enough to eat. 

The situation is most severe in those areas affected by conflict, such as the Lake Chad Basin region, the Sahel, and the Liptako-Gourma region, which borders Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. 

Strengthen social protection 

The partners hope the report will encourage public and private response to address the pandemic’s negative impacts on the people of West Africa. 

Chris Nikoi, WFP’s Regional Director for West Africa, underscored the need for immediate and concerted action. 

“This report clearly shows the urgent need for Governments and partners to deliberately increase investments to strengthen and increase social protection programs, social safety-nets such as school meals, and other livelihoods-enhancing programs with particular emphasis on women and youth,” he said. 

The Director of the ECA’s Sub-Regional Office, Ngone Diop, pointed to one of the strengths of the partnership, namely the ability to carry out an online survey which mobilized nearly 8,000 respondents. 

Moreover, she said “basing our analyses on primary, first-hand data from households directly impacted by the health crisis makes it possible to offer decision-makers at the regional and national levels with relevant and better-targeted policy options.” 

Responding to needs 

Since the outbreak of the pandemic nearly three years ago, ECOWAS and its partners have implemented several economic and financial measures to respond to the increasing needs in the region.  

ECOWAS Member States, with support from WFP and other technical partners, have also expanded social protection programmes, as well as food distributions, for the most vulnerable communities.  

For example, In Mali and Niger, they are supporting some 1.4 million people and helping to strengthen national social protection systems. 

“WFP is committed to engage more with ECOWAS in enhancing coordination and facilitating experience sharing among countries, with the aim to ensure social protection systems in the region support food security and nutrition and provide resilience to shocks,” said Mr. Nikoi. 

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Pragmatic Proposals to Optimize Russia’s Pledged Rehabilitation of Ethiopia



A girl stands outside her home in the Tigray Region, Ethiopia. © UNICEF/Tanya Bindra

Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Evgeny Terekhin pledged that his homeland will help rehabilitate his hosts after getting a clearer understanding of the full extent of the damage that the terrorist-designated Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) inflicted on the northern part of the country throughout the course of its approximately half-year-long occupation of the Afar and Amhara Regions. China’s Xinhua recently cited official Ethiopian government statistics about this which claim that the Amhara Region suffered damages upwards of approximately $5.7 billion.

According to their data, the TPLF partially or fully damaged 1,466 health facilities and vandalized water, electricity, and transport infrastructure. 1.9 million children are out of school in that region after more than 4,000 schools were damaged by the group. Over 1.8 million people were displaced from the Afar and Amhara Regions while 8.3 million there are suffering from food insecurity. The scale of this humanitarian crisis is massive and the direct result of the US-led West’s Hybrid War on Ethiopia that was waged to punish the country for its balanced foreign policy between the US and China.

It’s here where Russia can rely on its recent experiences in helping to rehabilitate Syria and the Central African Republic (CAR) in order to optimize its pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopian. Those two countries are much more war-torn than Ethiopia is, the latter of which only saw fighting in its northern regions instead of the entirety of its territory like the prior two did. The most urgent task is to ensure security in the liberated areas, which can be advanced by summer 2021’s military cooperation agreement between Russia and Ethiopia.

This pact could potentially see Russia sharing more details of its earlier mentioned experiences in order to enhance the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s (ENDF) security and stabilization operations in the northern part of the country. Syria and the CAR survived very intense Hybrid Wars that utilized cutting-edge military tactics and strategies against them similar to those that were subsequently directed against Ethiopia by the TPLF. It would help the ENDF to learn more about the challenges connected to ensuring security in areas that have been liberated from such contemporary Hybrid War forces.

The next order of business is to help the many victims of that country’s humanitarian crisis. Russia’s experience with assisting Syria in this respect, which suffered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises in decades, can be of use to Ethiopia. This is especially the case when it comes to aiding its internally displaced people. Their immediate needs must be met and maintained, which might require urgent support from that country’s trusted partners such as Russia. Provisioning such in an effective and timely manner can also improve Russia’s international reputation too, especially among Africans.

Northern Ethiopia’s post-war rehabilitation must be comprehensive and sustainable. The country’s Medemer philosophy — which has been translated as “coming together” – will form the basis of these efforts. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed touched upon this in his 2019 Nobel Peace Prize speech and his book of the same name that was released earlier that year. Its English translation hasn’t yet been published but Medemer was explained at length by high-level Ethiopian officials during an early 2020 US Institute of Peace panel talk and in Ethiopian writer Linda Yohannes’ insightful book review.

An oversimplification of it in the economic context is that Medemer preaches the need for comprehensive, inclusive, and sustainable growth through public-private and other partnerships that bring prosperity to all of its people, which in turn strengthens socio-political relations between them. It seeks to apply positive aspects of foreign models while avoiding the bad ones. The Medemer mentality aspires to balance cooperation with competition, constantly improving itself as needed, in order to synchronize and synergize Ethiopia’s natural economic advantages in people, location, and resources.

In practice, this could see Russian public and private companies partnering with Ethiopia’s primarily public ones to rehabilitate the northern regions’ damaged infrastructure. Since sustainable growth is one of Medemer’s key concepts, the country’s Russian partners could also train more laborers, social workers, teachers, and doctors throughout the course of these projects while offering scholarships to some internally displaced youth for example. In that way, Russia and Ethiopia could truly embody the Medemer spirit by literally bringing their people closer together as a result of these noble efforts.

All the while, Russia’s international media flagships of RT and Sputnik should be active on the ground documenting the entire experience. The immense influence that Moscow has in shaping global perceptions can be put to positive use in exposing the foreign-backed TPLF’s countless crimes against humanity in northern Ethiopia. This can powerfully counteract the US-led West’s information warfare campaign against its government, which misportrays the TPLF as innocent victims of the “genocidal” ENDF, exactly as similar Russian media efforts have done in debunking Western lies against Syria.

The world wouldn’t only benefit by learning more about the US-led West’s lies against Ethiopia, but also in seeing how effectively Russia is working to reverse the damage that their TPLF proxies inflicted in the northern part of that country. Russia is also a victim of their information warfare campaign, which misportrays the Kremlin as a dangerous and irresponsible international actor. The truth, however, is that Russia is a peaceful and responsible international actor that has a documented track record of cleaning up the West’s Hybrid War messes in Syria, the CAR, and prospectively soon even Ethiopia too.

Upon taking the lead in rehabilitating northern Ethiopia, Russia should diversify the stakeholders in that country’s prosperity in coordination with its hosts. It’s in Ethiopia’s interests as well to receive assistance from as many responsible and trusted partners as possible. Russia can help by requesting that relevant aid and multilateral rehabilitation efforts be placed on the agenda of the proposed heads of state meeting between the Russian, Indian, and Chinese (RIC) leaders that presidential aide Yury Ushakov said was discussed for early 2022 during President Putin’s latest video call with President Xi in December.

The RIC countries stood with in solidarity with Ethiopia at the United Nations in the face of the US-led West’s subversive attempts to weaponize international law against it. They’re strong economies in their own right, not to mention through their cooperation via BRICS and the SCO, the latter organization of which also has anti-terrorist and other security dimensions. These two multipolar platforms could potentially be used to extend economic, financial, humanitarian, and security cooperation to their Ethiopian partner to complement bilateral and trilateral efforts in this respect.

Russia’s increasingly strategic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could also lead to Moscow working more closely with Abu Dhabi on related rehabilitation matters with their shared partners in Addis Ababa. Observers shouldn’t forget that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ) played a crucial role in brokering peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018. He even awarded their leaders his country’s highest civil honor when they both visited the UAE that summer. Furthermore, Al Jazeera alleges that the UAE has maintained a humanitarian (and possibly even military) air bridge to Ethiopia.

Regardless of whether or not the military aspect of this reported bridge is true or not, there’s no denying that the UAE has emerged as a major stakeholder in Ethiopia’s success. It deposited $1 billion in Ethiopia’s central bank in summer 2018 as part of its $3 billion aid and investment pledge at the time. The UAE also plans to build an Eritrean-Ethiopian oil pipeline in order to help the latter export its newly tapped reserves in the southeast. Additionally, DP World signed a memorandum with Ethiopia in May 2021 to build a $1 billion trade and logistics corridor to separatist Somaliland’s Berbera port.

Considering the closeness of Emirati-Ethiopian relations, it would therefore be fitting for RIC to incorporate the UAE as an equal partner into any potential multilateral plan that those countries might come up with during their proposed heads of state summit sometime in early 2022. It enjoys excellent relations with all three of them so it’s a perfect fit for complementing their shared efforts. Plus, the UAE has the available capital needed to invest in high-quality, long-term, but sometimes very expensive infrastructure projects, which can ensure northern Ethiopia’s sustainable rehabilitation.

It’s pivotal for Russia to prioritize its pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopia ahead of the second triennial Russia-Africa Summit that’s expected to take place in October or November after fall 2019’s first-ever summit saw Russia return to Africa following a nearly three-decade-long hiatus. Coincidentally, Ethiopia requested last April to hold the next event in Addis Ababa. That would be a sensible choice since its capital city hosts the African Union headquarters, has sufficient infrastructure, and can serve most of the continent through its Ethiopian Airlines, which regularly wins awards as Africa’s best airline.

The interest that Ethiopian Ambassador to Russia Alemayehu Tegunu recently expressed in courting more Russian investment ahead of the next summit goes perfectly well with Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Terekhin’s vow to heighten cooperation between those countries’ ruling parties. This in turn raises the chances that the present piece’s proposals could hopefully serve as the blueprint for beginning relevant discussions as soon as possible on Russia’s pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopia with a view towards achieving tangible successes ahead of the next Russia-Africa Summit.

That timing is so important since Russia mustn’t miss the opportunity to showcase its bespoke “Democratic Security” model in Ethiopia. This emerging concept refers to the comprehensive thwarting of Hybrid War threats through economic, informational, military, and other tactics and strategies such as the action plan that was proposed in the present piece. “Democratic Security” approaches vary by country as evidenced from the differing ones that Russia’s practicing in Syria and the CAR, but the concept could attract many more African partners if it’s successful in Ethiopia by next fall’s summit.

Russia must therefore do everything in its power to bring this best-case scenario about. Rehabilitating Ethiopia won’t just improve millions of lives, expose the war crimes committed by the US-led West’s TPLF proxies, and enable Russia to showcase its “Democratic Security” model to other African countries, but ensure that the continent’s historical fountainhead of anti-imperialism and pan-Africanism survives its existential struggle. Upon that happening, Ethiopia can then serve to inspire a revival of these ideas all across Africa through its complementary Medemer concept and thus strengthen multipolarity.

From our partner RIAC

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Decade of Sahel conflict leaves 2.5 million people displaced



Two displaced women sit at a camp in Awaradi, Niger. © UNOCHA/Eve Sabbagh

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) called on Friday for concerted international action to end armed conflict in Africa’s central Sahel region, which has forced more than 2.5 million people to flee their homes in the last decade.

Speaking to journalists in Geneva, the agency’s spokesperson, Boris Cheshirkov, informed that internal displacement has increased tenfold since 2013, going from 217,000 to a staggering 2.1 million by late last year.

The number of refugees in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger now stands at 410,000, and the majority comes from Mali, where major civil conflict erupted in 2012, leading to a failed coup and an on-going extremist insurgency.

Increase in one year

Just last year, a surge in violent attacks across the region displaced nearly 500,000 people (figures for December still pending).

According to estimates from UN partners, armed groups carried out more than 800 deadly attacks in 2021. 

This violence uprooted some 450,000 people within their countries and forced a further 36,000 to flee into a neighbouring country.

In Burkina Faso alone, the total number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) rose to more than 1.5 million by the end of the year. Six in ten of the Sahel’s displaced are now from this country.

In Niger, the number of IDPs in the regions of Tillabéri and Tahoua has increased by 53 per cent in the last 12 months. In Mali, more than 400,000 people are displaced internally, representing a 30 per cent increase from the previous year.

Climate, humanitarian crisis

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating with crises on multiple fronts.

Insecurity is the main driver, made worse by extreme poverty, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The effects of the climate crisis are also felt more strongly in the region, with temperatures rising 1.5 times faster than the global average.

Women and children are often the worst affected and disproportionately exposed to extreme vulnerability and the threat of gender-based violence.

According to the UNHCR spokesperson, “host communities have continued to show resilience and solidarity in welcoming displaced families, despite their own scant resources.”

He also said that Government authorities have demonstrated “unwavering commitment” to assisting the displaced, but they are now “buckling under increasing pressure.”

Bold response

UNHCR and humanitarian partners face mounting challenges to deliver assistance, and continue to be the target of road attacks, ambushes, and carjacking.

In this context, the agency is calling on the international community to take “bold action and spare no effort” in supporting these countries.

UNHCR is also leading the joint efforts of UN agencies and NGOs to provide emergency shelter, manage displacement sites and deliver vital protection services, including combating gender-based violence and improving access to civil documentation.

In 2021, more than a third of the agency’s Central Sahel funding needs were unmet.

This year, to mount an effective response in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, the agency needs $307 million.

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