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Is Pakistan a “scapegoat”?

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Once again, Pakistan is under immense pressure and is used as a scapegoat for the US failure in Afghanistan. The US has a history of playing with Pakistan with such dirty tricks many times. Whenever the US needs Pakistan, always extend the hands of friendship and cooperation and common interests, etc, but always, after using Pakistan, betray Pakistan, and some cases put sanctions on Pakistan. In the past, on many occasions, the US achieved its strategic goals with the help of Pakistan, but this time, it is rather different, the US failed in Afghanistan and wanted a scapegoat to blame for its own failures.

The US spent two long-decades, more than enough time, fighting in Afghanistan. The US was as usual formatted an alliance of 46 countries, and deployed around 150,000 troops at peak times, used all possible lethal weapons, modern technologies, advanced tactics, and spent trillions of dollars in the Afghan war. Sacrificed thousands of soldiers and many more injured, with some of them serious and lifetime disabilities. Yet, could not gain control in any part of Afghanistan.

It was the Taliban who kept the hold on major parts of Afghanistan and currently, holding almost 90% of the country. Taliban were projected as backward, barbaric, conservative, ignorant, uncivilized, extremists, and terrorists, etc. Yet, it was quite opposite. As the leadership of the Taliban is highly educated and some of them graduated from American and European Universities. They are equipped with all necessary modern knowledge and expertise in Economics, Finance, Technology. Engineering, Politics, Laws, etc., in addition to religion.

Taliban are being blamed as terrorists, but it is the US who was begging to negotiate with them for a peace deal. The US administration of President Trump, approached Pakistan, seeking help in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. Pakistan, as usual, helped graceless Americans and brought the Taliban to negotiating table. After having several rounds of talks and discussions, finally reached a peace deal in February 2020. President Trump fulfilled his commitment and withdrew a major part of troops according to the deal.

However, President Joe deviated from the deal and delayed the troops’ withdrawal. Whereas, the Taliban stood firm on their part of the commitment and have not attacked US troops during the withdrawal period. It must be appreciated and acknowledged that the Taliban were honoring the deal, whereas the US was deviating from the deal. How the US signed a peace deal with so called Terrorists, and yet not honoring it.

Taliban are advancing rapidly, without out any much resistance. Most of the time, the Afghan National Army, surrenders and join them along with weapons and ammunition. Yet, the US is trying to halt the peace process and instigating the Afghan Government to attack Taliban positions and providing them air support. The recent airstrikes in Afghanistan are causing collateral damage and against the spirit of the peace deal signed between the US and Taliban. Imagine, while the US was sitting in Afghanistan, along 46 nation’s alliance, 150,000 troops, yet could not win over Taliban, how it can be possible to defeat Taliban by airstrikes only. It might damage the peace and stability of Afghanistan, is the US aimed to destroy the country only, after having withdrawn its troops safely?

The US is pressurizing Pakistan for opening its borders to Afghan refugees. We have been hosting Afghan refugees for four decades and at peak times up to five million. Now there are around three million already. Pakistan’s economy can not afford any additional burden at all. Furthermore, the social damage to our society was enormous. Intolerance, extremist, terrorism, drugs and gun culture, crime rate, etc, were the additional curse on Pakistan. There is complete consensus in the nation, not to allow any further refugees to enter Pakistan. It was the US and allies, who caused the Afghan people to migrate, they should open their countries for Afghan refugees. Pakistan can not afford to accept any responsibilities for American misdeeds and actions.

The US is pressurizing Pakistan to provide military bases or air routes for airstrikes in Afghanistan, the whole nation is unanimous, have a firm stance that, Pakistan can not be part of any war and can not facilitate any aggression, Pakistan extends its full support to any peace move or welfare initiatives only. The US has accepted its defeat and a defeated nation has no morals to dictates others. Taliban is the winner and may not necessarily obey American’s dictation.

Pakistan is a highly diverse society, yet, united on national interests. Although the US has been cultivating some disgruntled, destitute, or corrupt and greedy people to act on American instructions or lobby for the American agenda, they might be no longer effective anymore. The nation is united and awakened, and will not accept to be a “Scape Goat” for American mistakes and wrongdoings.  Pakistan has learned several bitter experiences in the past, and may not repeat the same gaian and again.

Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.

South Asia

“Haqeeqi Azaadi” or “Political Invasion”?

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You call it a “Long March” or an “Azaadi March” or a “Haqeeqi Azaadi March” and lastly according to some people “Political invasion of the capital”; whatever attempt it may be, the impact of this “Long March” will not be “Short” at all. Seems like history is repeating. Yesterday, it was PTI, later it was TLP, then JUIF, PDM & now again PTI. This reminds us about a Supreme Court’s historic judgment on Faizabad Sit in by Supreme Court, which is quite relevant again in these crucial times. The historic judgment of Supreme Court on Suo moto quotes that “The leaders of the dharna intimidated, hurled threats, abused, provoked and promoted hatred. The media provided unabated coverage. Inflammatory speeches were delivered by irresponsible politicians. Some unscrupulous talk-show hosts incited and provoked citizens.” Isn’t the situation once again similar? Doesn’t it seem like history is repeating? Few analysts consider it to be a worst kind of situation.

Supreme Court writes in its judgment that “the freedom of speech and expression and of the press are fundamental right. However, these rights cannot be used to denigrate or undermine the glory of Islam, security or defence of Pakistan, friendly relations with foreign States, public order, decency or morality or in relation to contempt of court, or commission of or incitement to an offence.  He categorically mentions that “PEMRA Ordinance mirrors the restrictions as set out in Article 19 of the Constitution and further prohibits broadcasts which are, “likely to create hatred among the people or is prejudicial to the maintenance of law and order or is likely to disturb public peace and tranquility.” So, Supreme Court has already given clear instructions that if some event is likely to disrupt peace and tranquility, media broadcasts can be prohibited.

Insiders say that we are in a dead end and this is the most crucial time of history for Pakistan, especially when the economic fate has to be decided by IMF on 25th May when Imran khan marches on Islamabad. So let’s playout the possible upcoming scenarios which political stakeholders may have to consider;

  1. Marching towards Islamabad with huge crowds is one thing but forcing a government to dissolve assemblies with this crowd is another thing. Imran Khan very well knows this is a do or die situation for his political career as well. He knows his March will only succeed if he can force an early election.
  2. Bringing larger mobs to Islamabad will only be fruitful if there is some kind of disruption by the present government or by the PTI itself. IK knows that a prolonged sit in without happenings in the red zone won’t be impactful.
  3. PTI leaders have been repeatedly convincing people including government employees, Army officers and police to bring their families in their Haqeeqi Azaadi March. The question which arises is that “Why IK doesn’t bring own family members to join the “Jihad” or “Haqeeqi Azaadi”?
  4. IMF has to take crucial decision on Pakistan’s economic fate. Without an IMF Package, a Srilanka type scenario may arise. The decision will come on the same date as of long march, on 25th May. This is a do or die situation for Pakistan’s economy. So the leaders of this March should definitely come with a futuristic economic plan and tell the masses how will they get rid of this dire economic situation.
  5. While Srinagar Highway will be full of Marchers led by the so-called Ambassador of Kashmir, a big decision is expected to come from Srinagar about Yasin Malik. Unfortunately, it is expected that his sentencing maybe announced on 25th May as well.

The government also has limited options. They are arresting leaders of PTI. They are raiding houses in their own panic mode which will further incite the situation. The removal of fuel subsidiary has become inevitable and when it happens it will be the most unpopular decision. Rising, Inflation will cut purchasing power. Finalization of IMF program has brought them to a dead end.

The dread is in the air. 25th May is around the corner. It is Crucial. It is Do or Die for Pakistan. We must fear!!

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South Asia

When Politics turns Personal; The Toxic Allegations & Accusations become a Norm

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Image source: timeofpakistan.com

There is something happening beneath this political turmoil which is NOT looking good!!

Whenever Political landscape turns into a Personal battleground, defeats become unacceptable. These past few days are a perfect case study to see that how Political elite in Pakistan has done whatever it took it to stay in power. In this power grab scenario, there could be numerous losses including the integrity of institutions. We have unfortunately entered into a very dangerous phase, where some political stakeholders have put all stakes at risk, where they have stretched their limits beyond a constitutional limit, all to gather mass support, all to stay in power and avoid defeat. Is it a threat of losing power? Is it a double game? Is it a practical hybrid war we are fighting?  Whatever it is, it doesn’t seem to be good. All is at stake, all is at risk and all is toxic.

As if the political temperature was not noxious enough, Shireen Mazari Saga took place. Once again, accusations, allegations and assumptions started pouring in against the state institutions. Soon after her arrest, her daughter, a lawyer herself Imaan Zainab Mazari alleged that her mother was beaten by male police officers during the arrest. But few minutes later, a video clip surfaced that showed clearly that her mother was arrested by Female Police officers in broad daylight and as per the law. Lie number 1 of the daughter stood exposed. Within moments, without any cogent evidence the lady, known for many controversies in the past targeted state institution for such an act, although the anti-corruption already had taken responsibility of her arrest.

Abuse of power can never be tolerated, regardless of who it targets or from where it emanates. This mantra is true and everyone has an equal belief on it but let’s take a deep dive to see that how politics turned dirty in this case, how blame game took place and how this entire episode was used as a tool to churn propaganda against Army leadership and Armed Forces.

1. The anti-corruption police had arrested Shireen Mazari and she herself accepted that Prime Minister and Interior minister were responsible for my arrest. But the mother daughter nexus brazenly started blaming institutions without any solid evidence. Shouldn’t there be an inquiry on this too?

2. PTI was always of the opinion that why courts were opened mid night to send IK packing while he wasn’t listening to anyone however when same court gave a verdict in favor of PTI ex minister, late night, it was celebrated and much appreciated by Shireen Mazari & IK who have been spearheading anti judicial tirade until recently. Isn’t it blatant hypocrisy? Judicial inquiry has been ordered by the Court which is a positive sign, but the serious allegations which Mazari nexus have raised must also be inquired during this newly formed judicial inquiry. Should the Judiciary not question them on hurling these baseless allegations?

3. The present government, whose Police itself arrested Shireen Mazari disowned this attempt. Attorney General displayed his ignorance about the matter in front of the court. So, somehow the government created this impression in the public eye that they are not to be blamed for the arrest of Shireen Mazari. Was it a double game? Or a deliberate effort to discredit institutions?

Pakistan is already facing serious economic downfall, political uncertainty and civil strife. PTI has also announced Long March to Islamabad on 25th May which is likely to further exacerbate already fragile political and economic instability. It has become quite evident now for achieving petty political ends, our political elite has no serious resolve to address the crisis confronting the country. Country is being deliberately pushed to limits of economic and political dead end. The political immaturity and lack of vision to handle the crisis situation is also hurting the repute of institutions amidst internal political wrangling. If political leadership doesn’t come to grips of the critical situation prevailing which is likely to aggravate further in coming days, people of Pakistan in particular and the country in general are likely to suffer unprecedented damage. Political elite must put its acts together and steer the country out of prevalent political and economic crisis by showing sagacity and political wisdom until it’s too late.

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South Asia

Accusations to Acknowledgement: The Battle of Article 63 A

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The weather is heating up. As the May is ending, Political temperatures are soaring. The fate regarding the country’s political and economic stability will be measured in the upcoming days. Earlier, PDM built momentum by taking on institutions. Maryam Nawaz raised the temperature by targeting key personalities and institutions. Allegations were bursting against the institutions in all dimensions. Today, we witness reversal of roles. Accusations have been outflowing in every Jalsa by PTI. But now suddenly, the “accusations” turned into “acknowledgment”. “Complaints” started transforming into “Compliments”. Is it the change of narrative? Is it another U-turn? Or is it the restoration of confidence in the institutions? Where will this chaos end?

The Supreme Court’s “decision” or as they say “opinion” or “binding” on Article 63 A has raised some pertinent questions on the status of CM Punjab election? In the interpretation of Article 63 A of the constitution, the Supreme court categorically condemns the practice of horse trading by calling it “a cancer afflicting the body politic”. Supreme Court in its decision of 3-2 rejected the vote count of these dissident members against the party directives. So the future of the Chief Executive of Punjab is now under threat because it is contrary to what happened in National Assembly. The political instability continues and the situation is messy.

In light of this verdict, Hamza has a support of 172 MPAs in Punjab assembly but at the same time, he also has 4 dissenting members which draws the figure to 168. Now further moving ahead, PTI and alliance also has a collective figure of 168 votes minus 21 dissenting members. The situation here in Punjab is way too complex now. A support of 186 members is required for a clear majority in Punjab assembly to formulate a government. This current Punjab government can either fall through a governor led vote of no confidence or a Supreme court order. The governor even has a right to dissolve the assembly with his discretionary powers according to Article 112 (2) of the constitution. Supreme Court has already made its decision on cross voting against Party fiat.  Now legal experts are interpreting the decision in their own dictionaries. What will happen in Punjab? What will happen on the federal level? Will there be an election call? If so, what will be the care taker setup? Will there be a fresh mandate? Who will make the hard economic decisions?  Lot needs to be answered in these crucial times.

From “My judges disappointed me” to “Thankyou Supreme Court”, a lot has happened and a lot is ready to take place. Islamabad is full of gossips, interpretations, whispers and predictions these days. There is something seething under this political turmoil. The Red zone is under a lot of pressure whether politically or economically. Pre – Elections, Elections and then Post elections, we have a lot of consequences of a lot of hard decisions. But hard decisions need to be taken. Question is who is ready to make the hard choices? Be Afraid!!

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