As by the end of this month, United States of America (USA) will complete its troop withdrawal from Afghanistan- the ‘Graveyard of Empires’, it will produce a ‘Saigon Moment’ once again. This ‘Saigon Moment’ will mark the Taliban as the victor of the decade long conflict. However, as the USA is withdrawing troops without producing any internal solution in Afghanistan, a void has been created. Meanwhile, in the absence of the USA, China is opting for filling this void by patronizing the Taliban and providing reconstruction and development assistance. For Taliban, as it is emerging as the sole victor in Afghanistan, it needs foreign assistance to defeat remaining internal militia forces and to pave way forward towards reconstruction. Moreover, acceptance from global powers such as China and Russia will also help Taliban in gaining legitimacy in global arena. Since last month, high level meetings between Taliban and China have taken place and both parties now enjoying warm cooperation. Taliban have cleared their stance on Uyghur as it is China’s internal matter and reaffirmed that, it will not tolerate ‘Anti-China’ activities in Afghan soil. At this point, it is clear that, China will be the power to fill up the void left by USA and will be highly proactive in future Afghanistan. However, as the romance between China and Taliban is brewing, it will surely have various implications on South Asian Politics in coming days.
The Sino- Taliban relations will surely impact the Sino-Indian rivalry as China’s presence in Afghanistan will create skepticism for India as a new ‘encircling’ front. The Indian skepticism about China’s encirclement of India is known to all. For the last two decades, due to US presence, India had least worry about the Afghan front. But now, India will have to counter China in a new front alongside other fronts. Though, Taliban previously assured India that, they will adopt their foreign policy independently which will remain out of Chinese influence, the reality begs to differ and suggest that, in the coming days, India will have to counter Afghan front alongside all other fronts in the ‘Encirclement’ game.
Like India, interestingly this romance will also affect Pakistan. Pakistan and Taliban are not in good term due to Taliban’s sponsorship to Tehrik-i-Taliban, a Pakistani counterpart of Taliban and other domestic terrorist groups in Pakistan. Moreover, the impact of Afghan conflict directly impacts Pakistan more than anyone. In this case, the later insurgencies and counter insurgencies of Afghan politics will also affect Pakistan directly. Hence, in the coming days, Sino-Pakistan relations will also be impacted by this romance as it will renew worries for Pakistan.
Back in China, the relations will further protract the ‘Uyghur’ issue and ‘isolate’ Xinjiang province. Taliban has already cleared their stance on Uyghur as China’s internal matter. Moreover, Taliban has also promised China that, it will not allow East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) to use Afghan soil against China. ETIM is a terrorist organization and it wants to separate Xinjiang province and create new state called ‘East Turkestan’. It operates in Afghan-China border region and has history of launching attacks in Xinjiang. ETIM is mostly based in Northern Badakhshan province of Afghanistan. As a part of bilateral understanding, Taliban also promised recently that, it will not allow Uyghur separatists in Afghanistan anymore. Several reports also claim that, Taliban has already tightened the Afghan-China border security and will not allow Uyghur population to pass through. On the other hand, in Pakistan, government has also tightened their border security to prevent Uyghur movement. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan border were considered as ‘escape’ route for Uyghur. But as the both borders are sealed in favor of China, it will result in further isolation and protraction of the Xinjiang province and its Uyghur populations. Isolation of the entire province will also decrease the flow of information about the ongoing activities in the region. As a result, Xinjiang may end up being the ‘New Tibet’ in coming future.
And last but not the least, it will revive terrorism once again especially in South Asia. Since 1990s, Taliban model served as the ‘role model’ for terrorism in South Asia. Since 1990s, countries including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Maldives are facing homegrown terrorist problems. Sri Lanka is also facing threats at present. Most of them were influenced by Taliban and many terrorists were allegedly taken part in Taliban Training camps. Since then, these countries initiated countering terrorism and successfully reduced terrorism to minimum. But in current context, Bangladesh’s Jamiatul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Neo-JMB, India’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkatul Mujahideen, Pakistan’s Jaish-e-Mohammad, Al Qaeda, Tehrik-e-Taliban will once again find motivation from this Taliban victory and Chinese patronization. Moreover, apart from terrorist organizations, these relations will also once again motivate extremist political Islam organizations such as Bangladesh’s Jamat e lslam, Hefajat-e-Islam and Pakistan’s Tehrik-e-Labbaik. For these organizations, Taliban will serve as a success story in both establishing Sharia Law and achieving legitimacy in global arena, just like 1990s when extremists celebrated the Taliban as a ‘role model’. As a result, in coming days, fundamentalist will find more space in this region and will challenge ‘secularism’ to the core resulting in violent conflicts and communalism in practice.
China’s romance with Taliban will surely bring new equations in politics in this region, especially in South Asia in the context of QUAD versus BRI stalemate and Sino-Indian rivalry. But it will also impact China’s traditional ally, Pakistan as Pakistan is already struggling with countering terrorism for more than a decade. However, it will also benefit Pakistan economically as in the coming days, due to Afghanistan’s land locked geography and China’s CPEC project, Afghanistan will more likely to increase trade relations with Pakistan. On the other hand, it will bring China and India face to face in a new front where India will have to counter directly. Moreover, this relation will also allow China to suppress the Uyghur issue by isolating and blocking Xinjiang, Uyghur escape and information transfer resulting in a ‘New Tibet’. But for other parts of the region, it will bring cloud of fundamentalism revitalizing the extremist and terrorist organizations now operating at a minimum capacity. Therefore, in the coming days, the whole region will face a complex multilayered situation with new ‘Sino-Taliban’ equation.
