With US withdrawing its troops, Afghanistan is now finding itself in the crossfire between the Taliban, Regional warlords and other rising insurgents functioning on the basis of ethnic affiliations and future is lying in the past lens.
In the result of signed peace agreement, US forces are leaving the Afghanistan by creating political and social vacuum which would provide opportunities to the various centrifugal forces to play their disastrous role in making a vulnerable state more unstable and fragile. There are political and strategic implications of US withdrawal but ethnic diversity is being underrated in Afghanistan. Afghanistan ethnic composition has not let diverse identities to make a unitary state but an age-old political power struggle between the state dominant ethnic community, the Pashtun and the other minorities: Uzbek, Hazaras, Tajiks and modicum of other small ethnic groups.
There are various underlying causes exist in the Afghanistan but the role of ignited forces such as domestic and neighbor elite associated with proximate causes of conflicts would add fuel into existing fire of hatred and make favorable conditions for ethnicity based conflicts. The fragile political system in which afghan center government is in conflict with aggressive warring party Taliban, social inequalities and discriminations, unstable economic institutions and porous ethnic borders would substantially lead to the exploitation of resources and ethnic conflicts. Pashtuns have almost always been at the center of political power and vehemently struggled to preserve the status quo by generating resistance to opponents. The political deadlock between intra state actors ruptures the social cohesion and results in formulation of in-group and out-group.
Afghanistan’s history is loaded with inter-ethnic conflicts that runs along the tribal lines and can be stretched back to the 18th century when Ghilzai tribe of rural east and the elites of the Durrani tribe in the south clashed over political issues and in the result of this Afghanistan was established under the rule of Durannis. With the passage of time, conditions turned in the favor of Taliban in 1996 but after the invasion of Afghanistan by US, the powers were delegated again to the Durannis in the shape of Hamid Karzai. History has been repeating itself in the Afghanistan. The irresponsible behavior of Super Power will again push the society into fire of hate and chaos. Afghan Taliban is not threat to state security but ethnic communities who are already victimized by the states’ biased policies. Taliban are in strong psychological and physiological position and eager to control the state’s affairs in hands. Post US withdrawal arena is being expected to be increasingly violent and bloodshed. Taliban make talks very difficult as they stipulate very harsh conditions on issues pertinent to the regime and constitutional changes, freedom of thoughts and women’s rights.
In addition to this, Afghanistan shares ethnic geography with neighboring states such as: Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian region which disrupts the peaceful coexistence of minorities. The conflicting situations can be intensified by involving foreign agents to gain political and social support at domestic level. Taliban are in striving to take situation towards chaos which will favor their stance and position. For this purpose, they can easily target the ethnic groups and insurgents. The ethnic issues can be flared up during this sensitive period where Taliban wants to destabilize the government. The attacks on Shia Hazaras community, Tajiks or Durannis by Taliban, with shrill rhetoric among different majority and minority communities would renew the ethnic rivalries started in the past.
Achieving peace in war torn Afghanistan is not a bed of roses for regional and extra regional states but a challenging issue which requires high attention. A potential bright spot is that grassroots demands for peace should be high and ethnic communities should be integrated to face the outcomes collectively. The social movement for peace, by mobilizing the social units, to put pressure on political and Taliban leaders is of very significance to ensure peace and peaceful solution to the issues otherwise ultimate outcome of actions would be bloodshed and mass killing.
