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The war for mineral possession started in Afghanistan

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It is estimated that about three trillion dollars worth of mineral resources have been extracted from Afghanistan’s soil.  Taken from a coal mine in Samanjan Province.

 All the mentors in the world are now interested in working with the Taliban.  But why?  There are probably multiple reasons for this.  One of the big reasons is the country’s minerals.  The reason for NATO’s incursion into Afghanistan 20 years ago was called “suppression of terrorism”.  But US policymakers have also speculated that Afghanistan’s mineral wealth could be seized by defeating the Taliban.  The war on the ground did not give them that opportunity.  In the new reality, the United States is keen to do that with the Taliban.  China and Russia have similar desires.  Turkey is coming anew.

 Three trillion dollars worth of minerals

 It is estimated that the country’s nearly three trillion dollars worth of assets have been extracted underground.  With all this business, the country can easily earn billions of dollars a year.

 In addition to gold and nickel, Afghanistan has many valuable minerals, including lithium and copper.  There are many rare soil elements including scandium, uterium, which are used in making mobile phones, TVs, fiber optics nowadays.

 After entering Afghanistan, NATO experts intercepted Russian investigative reports on the country’s mineral resources in the 1980s and 1980s.  Together with that, the Pentagon’s high-tech search led to the discovery of huge stockpiles of lithium in Ghazni.

 Lithium is mainly used in various military devices from small computer batteries.  It is also important for the impending revolution of electric vehicles.  It is now a strategic mineral around the world.  The BBC also called Afghanistan a “future Saudi Arabia” because of lithium.  Bolivian politics is in deep trouble over similar large lithium reserves.  There, ousted Evo Morales demanded the establishment of control over lithium for US alcohol in the coup against him.  Afghan reserves of lithium are almost equal to Bolivia.  Control of Ghazni in the coming days is therefore very important for many.

 As US aid dwindles, Afghans will need Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran.  These countries are now working to build a “win-win” relationship with the Taliban.

 Apart from lithium, copper and other minerals in Afghanistan, opium is also traded as a grade-4 quality heroin component.  The production of technology-based methamphetamine-based drugs is also increasing in the country now.  All the recent reports in this regard say that the size of the country’s drug economy is now larger than it was 20 years ago.  In the future, the outside forces will have to decide with the Taliban on these issues as well.  Many unseen powers, Iran and Pakistan, the two gateways to Afghan narcotics, will be at the forefront of these agreements.  Afghan drug producers are moving to a new route to Pakistan as the currency depreciates against the Iranian currency.  At the same time, it may increase the spread of drugs among Pakistanis.

 The CIA’s role in financing Afghan guerrillas during the anti-Soviet war to market heroin to locals along the Pak-Afghan border is a testament to the size of that management during the Taliban’s rule.

 Good day in the mining industry

 As soon as he sat down to write about the minerals of Afghanistan, the words of the tyrant Khalilzad came to mind.  He is the one who signed the US peace agreement with the Taliban.  The U.S. diplomat has long been associated with the oil company Unique.  He has been a citizen of the United States since 1984.

 Being of Pashtun descent, he has been in contact with the Taliban for about 25 years.  He took his ministers to the Unique office in Texas before the Taliban ousted him in 2001.  The Taliban government did not yet have diplomatic relations with the United States.  Khalilzad was primarily responsible for the construction of the 620-mile Pakistan-Turkmenistan gas pipeline (known as the ‘Saint-Gas’ project) over Afghanistan, originally on behalf of Uniqlo.  At the time, the Taliban agreed to pay থেকে 50 million to 100 million a year.  The project did not move forward in the midst of the ensuing war.  Neither the United States nor the Taliban have lost faith in Khalilzad.  In 2010, he became a member of the board of RK, another UAE-based oil company.  He was a board member of DNO, a Norwegian company working in the same field.  DNO was hired in 2004 in the Kurdish region of Iraq.  Khalilzad was also the US ambassador to Iraq in 2005-06.  War, aggression and the fuel business have always stuck with his resume.  If the current “peace deal” succeeds, he could be seen in a more important role in Afghanistan.  Or his son.

 Alexander Benard, Khalilzad’s son, is a consultant for miners in Central Asia at the behest of his father.  Benard is now the MD of Griffon Partner, a company founded by his father.  The upcoming Afghanistan is a great opportunity for mining corporates.  Benard’s appreciation may increase at this time.  At the same time, the country’s air, water and land pollution will also increase at this time.

 Copper reserves will make the Taliban an ally of China

 As US aid dwindles, Afghans will need Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran.  These countries are now working to build a “win-win” relationship with the Taliban.

 In the third world, China is more skilled in how to take big projects by the hands of the heads of state.  Despite NATO’s 20-year rule in Afghanistan, Messrs. Yank’s largest copper reserve, China’s state-owned company MCC (Metallurgical Corporation of China), was able to lease in a ৩ 3 billion deal in 2016.  It was reported at the time that the MCC had paid ৩০ 30 million to Minerals Minister Mohammad Ibrahim Adel in the deal.  The transaction was completed in Dubai.  Ibrahim Adel was fired after the incident became known.

 Corruption does not stop there.  Incumbent President Ashraf Ghani has also been accused of bribing a US company called SOS International to gain control of mineral resources in Kunar province.

 The mineral sector is a major contributor to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, which sank Afghanistan to 175/170 last year.  In the midst of the last 20 years of war, the Taliban have also raised an average of আ 2.5 million to স্থানীয় 10 million a year locally from various mining operations.  Thus, most of the work in the mining sector has been done by the corporates with the money of government bureaucrats and local armed guerrillas.

 The much-talked-about Mess Aank mine in Logar province, 25 miles south of Kabul, is estimated to have about 80 million metric tons of copper.  Despite the hasty lease, China has not been able to start extraction in time.  The security situation was not conducive.  Apart from the huge population that will lose their homes in the mining area, no alternative has yet been developed to rehabilitate them.  However, China will not lose this reserve in any way.  Half of the global copper demand is now theirs.  It is not uncommon for the Taliban to become friends with China.

 The country’s Hajizak mine is another area of ​​interest for many countries, as is China’s interest in Mess Yank’s copper deposits.  There are huge deposits of iron ore here.  The area lies in Bamiyan, 130 kilometers west of Kabul.  There are 2.2 billion tons of iron ore here.  In 2011, several Indian companies allocated 10 billion to the sector.  Like China, they could not work.  Maybe not anymore.

 The Taliban will not get much for their livelihood except for mineral resources and tourism.  International powers are eager to take advantage of this weakness in Afghanistan.  The Taliban need to invest in human resource development and infrastructure.  And investors will be interested in getting cheap minerals.

 China is repeatedly tempted to invest in railways in Afghanistan as soon as Mess Jank’s copper is removed.  Pakistan and Russia also have some favorite economic projects in Afghanistan.  They are also involved in the tug of war with the Taliban!

 48 percent of Afghans are poor, resources must be used

 Although rich in mineral resources, Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world.  In this country of about 45 million people, 47 percent of the population is still below the poverty line, earning less than ৯ 1.9 a day.  There are 3 million Afghan refugees in neighboring countries.  When the war is over, they will return to the devastated villages.  The country is well ahead in terms of birth rate and unemployment.  The future Afghanistan needs to provide food, shelter and jobs for all such people.  This country, which is four times larger in size, is now nothing more than a war-torn country.  Some of what is meant by infrastructure has not been spared.  In addition, 80-90 percent of the citizens are deprived of education.  The majority of young people are not trained in anything other than running a gun.  A psychological revolution is needed to pull a population from gun culture to paper and pen culture.  We need resources for this work.

 Kabul is not the center of gravity in the new war

 The Taliban will not get much for their livelihood except for mineral resources and tourism.  International powers are eager to take advantage of this weakness in Afghanistan.  The Taliban need to invest in human resource development and infrastructure.  And investors will be interested in getting cheap minerals.  In extreme corrupt ways, if necessary.  Talks on the ‘St.-Gas’ project may also begin soon.  The next challenge for the Taliban leadership is to coordinate this two-pronged approach.  In particular, regional tribal leaders need to come to terms with their own armed forces and the Taliban’s local mineral economy.

 Conflict in some districts of the country as soon as the US troops take the initiative to return home is a major reason for the imminent onset of the upcoming mineral-occupation-war.  From previous experience, the Taliban knows that the next war will not be about Kabul alone.  Mineral rich districts will be its center of gravity.

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The New World Order: The conspiracy theory and the power of the Internet

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“The Illuminati, a mysterious international organisation made up of the world’s top political and social elites, controls the workings of the entire world behind the scenes”. This is the world’s most famous conspiracy theory about the New World Order.

For hundreds of years, legends about the Illuminati have been spread and many people currently believe that the Illuminati still exist. It is believed that the Illuminati operate in various fields such as global politics, military affairs, finance and mass media and control the historical process of the entire world.

The ultimate goal is to establish a New World Order. Nobody can prove it, but many people believe it. This is the greatest paradox about conspiracy theories.

In the 2009 film, Angels and Demons – based on Dan Brown’s best seller of the same name about Professor Langdon, played by Tom Hanks – the story of the Illuminati, who supposedly originated in Europe during the Age of Enlightenment, was recalled. There were physicists, mathematicians and astronomers who questioned the “erroneous teachings” of the authority of the Holy See and dedicated themselves to the scientific field of the search for truth.

Eventually, the Illuminati were forced to become a clandestine organisation and have continued to recruit members for hundreds of years to this day. In Angels and Demons, the historical facts are clearly questionable, and the movie appeared after the great economic crisis of 2007-2008.

The New World Order conspiracy theory has been circulating for a long time and is full of mysterious theories that, however, convince many people who are powerless and dissatisfied with the current state of the world.

The Illuminati, who advocate the establishment of a New World Order through the planning of a series of political and financial events (the financial tsunami of 2007-2008 is said to have been planned by the Illuminati), attempt to influence the course of world history, and ultimately establish an authoritarian world government.

Supporters of the New World Order theory believe that even the powerful US government is now just a puppet government. While another “shadow government” made up of a few people makes decisions that will change the fate of the planet.

You might think that all of the above is just crackpot theories. Many people, however, believe this is true. According to a 2013 poll conducted by the Public Policy Polling Foundation, 28% of US voters believe that the New World Order is actually taking hold.

Brian L. Keeley, a professor of philosophy at Pitts College who devotes himself to the study of modern conspiracy theories, believes that an important feature of conspiracy theorists is that they cite some trivial and overlooked incidents and then propose a perfect explanation compared to an embarrassed official response. The reason why the conspiracy theory explanation can be widely disseminated is that it has no argumentation process to deny. It is just a judgement that jumps directly from hypothesis to conclusion. In the argumentation process, it is only a subjective interpretation of the event.

Nevertheless, for the public that does not fully understand the incident, the conspiracy theory provides an “explanation” for the unknown part of the said incident, and this “explanation” cannot be denied (because its very existence is not corroborated by real arguments and facts). It is therefore recognised as a valid argument by many people.

For example, no one has substantial evidence to prove that the Illuminati actually exist, but no one can prove that the Illuminati are purely fictitious. Therefore, you cannot deny their existence because their existence is “perfection without evidence”.

Columnist Martha Gill wrote in The Guardian on the subject, describing the Illuminati as the most enduring conspiracy theory organisation in world history.

“Conspiracy theories relating to the 1969 moon landing mission, the Kennedy assassination, the 9/11 attacks, etc., are all limited to a specific time and place. But conspiracy theories supporting the existence of the Illuminati can connect them. Anything about these connections, however, is difficult to prove”. In other words, the supporters of conspiracy theories may have common imagination and attribute everything to this organisation, so that every irrational phenomenon in the world can be explained.

Although no one can prove the real existence of the Illuminati, there is actually an alleged “global shadow government” in the world whose name is the Bilderberg Group. The Bilderberg Group holds an annual world-class private meeting and participants include elites from all walks of society such as government, business, media, science and technology.

Known as the “World’s Most Mysterious Conference”, the Bilderberg Group invites various famous political and economic figures to participate in its meetings every year.

Prince Bernhard van Lippe-Biesterfeld (1911-2004) held the first meeting in 1954. As the venue for the meeting was the Bilderberg Hotel in Oosterbeek, that name was used as the name of the group.

The existence of the Bilderberg Group is not a secret, but the content of the topics discussed at the Conferences is absolutely confidential and mainstream media cannot report on the content of the meetings.

The Bilderberg Group issues a press release every year to introduce the Conference participants and the outline of the topics discussed. Over the years, participants have come from many places, including Prince Philip of Edinburgh (1921-2021) of the British Royal Family, Crown Prince Charles, former British Prime Ministers, French President Macron, German Chancellor Merkel, former US Presidents Bush and Clinton, and even Bill Gates and other Internet giants. There were also Italians, as reported years ago in a newspaper of our country.

The 2018 Conference was held in Turin, Italy, in June. According to the description on the Bilderberg Group’s official website, the main topics included European populism, the development of artificial intelligence, quantum computer technology and the “post-truth” era. Obviously the actual content and results of the meeting’s discussion have never been reported.

Therefore, the Bilderberg Group has naturally become a locus where conspiracy theorists want to draw material. They describe the Bilderberg Group as true evidence of the theory that a very small number of elites controls the world, and the participants are planning a New World Order.

On the subject of strange things, let us give some examples. In June 2018, the British Royal Family was also caught up in conspiracy theories. When Prince Harry and his wife Meghan attended a show, they were caught on camera motionless, like two stiff and dull robots. Later related clips went viral on the Internet and netizens were in an uproar: many people believed that the distinguished members of the Royal Family were actually robots developed by high technology.

However, the management of the London museum, Madame Tussauds, later explained the mystery by stating that Harry and Meghan were only played by two actors who wore extremely high-realism wax masks on their faces – all to promote an exhibition of wax statues – and inadvertently caused an uproar.

In that short video, Harry and Meghan did not change their facial appearance and their expressions were stiff just like robots. Consequently, conspiracy theorists used this as evidence that they were robots secretly built by the British Royal Family.

This argument is an extension of the ‘trivial evidence’ mentioned above. The argument proponents ignore any argumentation process and directly draw the final conclusion through the above stated “trivial evidence”. This conclusion is highly topical and quite appealing. With the fast spread of the Internet, the “quick truth” will naturally be recognised and sought after by many people.

I think many people still remember the “Mandela effect” that spread wildly across the Internet in the early years as a false memory. The name “Mandela effect” is believed to have come from Fiona Broome, a self-described “paranormal consultant”, who created a website called the “Mandela effect”. Supporters of the ‘Mandela effect’ claim to “remember” that former South African President Mandela died in prison in the 1980s. But in reality, after being released from prison, Mandela served as President of South Africa from 1994 to 1999 and died in December 2013.

So why should anyone believe this seemingly absurd statement? The Internet has become a support platform for a lot of false content, fake news, as well as unreasonableness and lack of justification. When someone shared that ‘false memory’ with others on the Internet, many people believed it to be true, and even suddenly recalled having that memory: “Mandela died in prison that year”.

As a result, lies inconsistent with facts continue to spread. The lie is repeated thousands of times and many people consider it to be the truth: this learning phase is the first misleading rule on the Internet.

In the Internet era, multidimensional and multiplatform features have generated a number of online “malignancies” of conspiracy theories. Moreover, their dissemination ability is not limited to “believers” only. Since online social media provide a widespread and wide dissemination platform, one passes it onto ten people, ten spread it to a hundred, a hundred to a thousand, and so it goes on in geometric fashion, thus turning a ‘hot’ topic on the Internet into an absolute truth. Those who want to believe are naturally prepared and willing to do so. Moreover, these false opinions on the Internet may even have an impact on the real world.

For example, at the political level, everyone can now comment and participate in the online arena. For politicians to get the right to speak and set the agenda, the key is to rely on the public’s direction on the Internet. The Internet discourse has become the dominant factor of the political storytelling, and not vice versa. The characteristics of social networks are precisely the breeding ground for conspiracy theories.

The Internet is easy to spread among the public and it is exactly the breeding ground for conspiracy theories.

Nowadays, conspiracy theories are enough to influence politics and even political developments. A specific conspiracy theory gains a number of supporters through the Internet that promotes it to become a highly debated topic among the public. Consequently, it enters the real political arena coming from the virtual community and its influence can change the direction of governmental decisions.

Looking at it from another perspective, when conspiracy theories are put on the Internet and continue to proliferate – regardless of whether the Illuminati exist or not – they are enough to establish a New World Order. The real-world public opinions, as well as the composition of opinions and the basis of social discussions are changed, and thus world’s countries, politics and rulers are affected.

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USA and Australia Worry About Cyber Attacks from China Amidst Pegasus Spyware

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Pegasus Spyware Scandal has shaken whole India and several other countries. What will be its fallout no one knows as we know only tip of iceberg. Amidst Pegasus Spyware Scandal USA and Australia both have shown serious concerns about Cyber Attacks on US and Australian interests. Both say that China is hub of malware software and both face millions of such attacks daily.

I am trying to understand why a software is needed to spy on a particular individual when all calls, messages, data, emails are easily accessible from server. In most of cases these servers are located in USA and some cases these are located in host country. In certain sensitive cases Government Agencies have their own server like Central Intelligence Agency and hundreds of other agencies and military establishment world over including India. Now point is who installs those servers.

A couple of years back I had talked to Mr Mike Molloy who is Chief Executive Officer of Orion Global Technologies previously known as Orion SAS. He had explained me how his company installs servers in host countries on request of private or gov bodies. He talks about contract and trust. That means even when a company or Gov buys a server or software for designated uses the “Secrecy” Factor remain on discretion of company which has supplied server or software.

Now  if all data, e-mail, chat, messages, calls are accessible to Gov as per law and technology (Through Server all components of Communication are accessible and thats why  me and you see start seeing call recording of a person even after many years later), I am unable to understand why a Gov will be needing a software to Spy on any one.

Now coming to where Australia and USA wants to carry the whole debate.

Australian Foreign Minister Sen Marise Payne said, “Australian Government joins international partners in expressing serious concerns about malicious cyber activities by China’s Ministry of State Security.

“In consultation with our partners, the Australian Government has determined that China’s Ministry of State Security exploited vulnerabilities in the Microsoft Exchange software to affect thousands of computers and networks worldwide, including in Australia. These actions have undermined international stability and security by opening the door to a range of other actors, including cybercriminals, who continue to exploit this vulnerability for illicit gain”, She further added.

She opined, ”The Australian Government is also seriously concerned about reports from our international partners that China’s Ministry of State Security is engaging contract hackers who have carried out cyber-enabled intellectual property theft for personal gain and to provide commercial advantage to the Chinese Government”.

She warned China by saying, “Australia calls on all countries – including China – to act responsibly in cyberspace.  China must adhere to the commitments it has made in the G20, and bilaterally, to refrain from cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, trade secrets and confidential business information with the intent of obtaining competitive advantage”.

On other hand USA’s The National Security Agency (NSA), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) released a Cybersecurity Advisory on Chinese State-Sponsored Cyber Operations. National Security Advisor said, ”Chinese state-sponsored cyber activity poses a major threat to U.S. and allied systems. These actors aggressively target political, economic, military, educational, and critical infrastructure personnel and organizations to access valuable, sensitive data. These cyber operations support China’s long-term economic and military objectives”.

The information in this advisory builds on NSA’s previous release “Chinese State-Sponsored Actors Exploit Publicly Known Vulnerabilities.” The NSA, CISA, and FBI recommended mitigations empower our customers to reduce the risk of Chinese malicious cyber activity, and increase the defensive posture of their critical networks. 

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Afghan issue can not be understood from the simplistic lens of geopolitical blocs

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pakistan-terrorism

Authors: Tridivesh Singh Maini  and Varundeep Singh*

On July 14, 2021 a terror attack was carried out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province in which a number of Chinese engineers, working on the Dasu hydropower project (a project which is part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor) were killed. The attack predictably evinced a strong response from China. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi speaking before a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Foreign Minister’s meeting asked the Taliban to disassociate itself from ‘terrorist elements’ and in a meeting with Pakistan Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, asked Pakistan to bring the perpetrators to book. Earlier in April 2021, a car bomb attack took place at Serena hotel in Quetta which was hosting China’s Ambassador to Pakistan (four people were killed and twelve were injured)

Wang Yi significantly praised the Ashraf Ghani government, for its attempts towards building national unity and providing effective governance. Beijing clearly realizes that its economic investments in the country as well as big ticket infrastructural projects can not remain safe if there is no security. Afghanistan also criticized Pakistan for its role in sending 10000 Jihadis to Taliban, this is important in the context of the region’s geopolitics.

 Like all other countries, Beijing and Islamabad, would have expected uncertainty after the US withdrawal of troops but perhaps over estimated their capabilities in dealing with the turbulence which had been predicted by many.

Importance of Chinese Foreign Minister’s statements

Wang Yi’s statements are important because days earlier a Taliban spokesman, Suhail Shaheen had praised China and welcomed its role in the country’s reconstruction. He had also assured China that those involved in the insurgency in Xinjiang would not be given refuge in Afghanistan (one of China’s major concerns has been the support provided by Taliban to the East Turkmenistan movement)

While Beijing may have opened back channels with the Taliban and realized that it needs to adapt to the changing geopolitics, recent developments would have increased its skepticism vis-à-vis the Taliban. On the other hand, Russia has been more favorable towards the Taliban. Russia’s Deputy Chief of Mission in India, Roman Babushkin argued that the Taliban are a reality which needs to be accepted, and also that any military activities without a political process are insufficient.

Babushkin did make the point that for successful negotiations, Taliban needed to end violence.

‘that Taliban should deal with the problem of terrorism and other related issues in order to become legitimate, in order to [get] delisted [at the UN Security Council], in order to go ahead with the future Afghanistan and creation of the inclusive government

It would be pertinent to point out, that Zamir Kabulov, Russian President’s Afghanistan envoy went a step further and said that the Afghan government was not doing enough to make talks with Taliban a success.

China’s statements subtle warning to the Taliban, indicating its reservations, and praise of Ghani indicate a possibility of greater understanding between Washington and Beijing (even though Beijing has repeatedly attributed the current troubles in Afghanistan to Washington’s decision to withdraw troops).

Can US and China find common ground

 It remains to be seen if Biden who has exhibited dexterity on a number of complex issues reaches out to Xi Jinping to find common ground with regard to Afghanistan. Significantly, while US-Turkey relations had witnessed a downward trajectory and Biden has been critical of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies and Human rights record, both leaders met on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in June 2021. During the meeting Turkey agreed to secure Kabul Airport. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan while commenting on Turkey’s assurance said

‘The clear commitment from the leaders was established that Turkey would play a lead role in securing Hamid Karzai International Airport, and we are now working through how to execute to get to that,’

Taliban earlier this week warned Turkey of ‘consequences’ if the Middle Eastern nation increased its troop presence in Afghanistan.

Conclusion

Russia’s statements with regard to the Taliban indicate that it is not totally on the same page as China (its prior experience in Afghanistan has made it more cautious and circumspect), and that the Afghan issue can not be understood from the simplistic lens of geo-political blocs and traditional lenses. All major stakeholders in Afghanistan, both within the region and outside, seem to be understandably befuddled by the turn of events. It is not just the US, but even China which would be worried not just from an economic stand point but the overall security implications of the turmoil in Afghanistan. The terror attack in KPK indicates that other CPEC related projects could also face threats from militant groups. Beijing would thus need to be quick to react to the overtures from the Taliban in order to secure its economic assets and lives of Chinese workers in neighbouring Pakistan.

 It is especially important for Washington, Beijing and other important stakeholders in the region to work together for dealing with the near term turbulence as well as long term challenges Afghanistan is likely to face.

*Varundeep Singh is an Independent Policy Analyst.

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