The contemporary political discourse in Russia mostly shares the criticism regarding the current state and the future of the EU. This criticism is driven not only by numerous problems which the EU encounters today but also by the dire relations between Moscow and Brussels. While setting the tune for expert and public discussions, official statements are marked by unprecedented toughness and undisguised pessimism regarding a common European future. Under the sway of this rhetoric, most of the Russian experts focus on the multiple challenges that the EU encounters today rather than on the obvious historical achievements of the European project. As a result, such forecasts suggest the EU’s prospects to appear bleak and pitiful.
Still, the Russian academic community has a vocal group of Euro-optimists, mainly comprised of experts who deal with the European issues and a number of liberally-minded politicians from the opposition. It is only natural that the views of the EU shared by this group are drastically different from the official voices. They consider the common European project not only as the most historically successful but also as the most promising for regional integration. While admitting certain problems and crises that accompany the EU’s development, Russian Euro-optimists are still confident that Europe will eventually put the boot on the other foot, benefitting from the crises and timely adjusting the strategy for further institutional development of the EU.
Although both camps of experts differ in their vision of the EU, they concur on several material challenges to the EU legitimacy and its successful operation. It is the response to these challenges that will define the future of the EU. Russian politicians and foreign policy experts highlight the following most pivotal issues:
Poor strategic autonomy of the EU. Russia notes that despite numerous declarations of the need to become strategically autonomous, independent from the U.S., little of this has essentially translated into practice. Moreover, Joe Biden’s coming to power and taking the seat in the Oval Office is frequently interpreted by the EU as that there is no longer need to be more independent. The de facto abandoning of the objective to achieve strategic autonomy, divorcing from the U.S., simplifies the EU’s strategic planning, while also narrowing the room for European policy-making, including with regards to Russia.
Most of the Russian observers believe that Europe will pay a heavy price for such shortage of strategic autonomy, with these costs only going up with the time. In particular, the EU will be affected by the inevitable exacerbation of the Sino-American confrontation as well as the resulting pressure exercised on Brussels from Washington in order to strengthen the common anti-Chinese stance of the West. Amid a more pronounced bipolar nature of global politics, the EU will have to follow in the U.S.’ footsteps, thus giving up its own agency. Projects similar to Nord Stream 2 will no longer be politically feasible. At the same time, reliance on the U.S. fails to safeguard Western unity in the long run: we cannot rule out that a politician similar to Donald Trump may be sworn in in Washington as early as 2024, something Brussels is totally unprepared for.
Loss by the EU of its economic and technological competitiveness. Despite its considerable economic, scientific and technological potential, the EU today is lagging behind North America and East Asia in many key technological areas. If this gap expands further, the EU may eventually turn into the world’s industrial museum. Subsequently, it may be driven to the sidelines of the global economic and technological development. Problems that have to do with the traditional features of the European social model will grow in number—more than lavish welfare programs will see the European workforce become too expensive to be competitive on the global markets. At the same time, its professional and geographic mobility in many EU member states remains relatively low.
For Russia, such negative tendencies within the EU would accelerate the country’s pivot from the EU to China, South-East Asia and other Asian nations. This pivot could get another impetus once the EU introduces more sectoral sanctions against Russia in the area of high technologies or copies similar exterritorial sanctions as instituted by the U.S. In more broad terms, loss by the EU of its economic and technological competitiveness may cast into doubt the value of the European social model as a token of modernity and an example to be followed by other countries, including Russia.
Exacerbation of European unity problems. Russia, just like the EU, warns of some dangerous potential lines of division within the EU to prospectively emerge, such as the divide between “old” and “new” Europe, North and South, bigger and smaller member states, donors and recipients of the EU funding. Brexit has only exacerbated this situation, bringing in multiple imbalances. Further break-up processes may slow the integration down or even turn it back. National identity in many EU member states could push the common European identity to the backburner. Although most Russian experts do not believe that the EU would finally collapse, some predict that some of the functions that Brussels is now endowed with will be recovered by nation states, which in turn would be reinforced through supranational administration bodies.
The consequences entailed by a potential weakening of the EU’s institutions and mechanisms are still a subject of heated discussions in Russia. Some experts believe that Moscow will benefit from such developments as it historically achieved better results from its bilateral relations with Europe’s leading nations, such as Germany, France and Italy, rather when dealing with the European Union as a whole. Others believe that a weak EU, incapable of speaking in one voice, does not fit for the Russian concept of a multipolar world and cannot be regarded as a Moscow’s reliable partner. In terms of security, a weaker EU would inevitably mean a stronger NATO and a more robust U.S. presence in Europe, which does not meet the Russian interests. In economic terms, a weaker EU cannot adequately counterbalance the growing domination of China in the Russian foreign trade.
European isolationism. Russian observers believe that further EU development and its legitimacy can be challenged by the rise of isolationist sentiments in the EU nations and de facto abandoning of an active foreign policy by the EU leaders. The EU nations fail to agree on such burning international issues as Kosovo, Venezuela, Israeli-Palestinian conflict and so on. Further self-confinement would mean that the EU not only gives up its active role in such regional conflicts as Syria, Libya, Afghanistan. This way, the EU will also give up creating and promoting global commons in the area of climate change, global web governance, human rights, food security and many others.
European isolationism will have a two-fold impact on Russia. On the one hand, Russian authorities will be happy if the EU no longer meddles in Russia’s internal affairs under the pretext of protecting human rights and if Brussels abandons its plans to possibly expand to the East in foreseeable future. Once Europe curtails its activity to its East and to its South, this will create more opportunities for Russia in Syria, Ukraine etc. On the other hand, if the EU is relieved of responsibility to develop and promote new rules of the game in important domains of world politics and economy, such rules would be increasingly imposed by Washington and Beijing. We cannot take it for granted that such a change of leadership in global rules-setting meets Moscow’s long-term interests.
Demographic trough and new migration crisis. Russia takes note of the long-term tendencies of a shrinking EU population and a new possible large-scale migration waves to Europe from the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. Numerous Russian conservative analysts associate the drop in demography with the features of the modern European liberalism, such as same-sex marriages, collapse of the traditional family, loss of faith. Meanwhile, Russia, having abandoned a liberal development model, is still running into even graver demographic problems. Anyway, gradual change in the demographic structure in the EU in favor of European Arabs, European Africans and other non-indigenous ethnic groups can be regarded as one of the most serious challenges to the very existence of the EU and to the future of the European nations in general—especially since there are no optimal models for integration and adaptation of such groups in Europe, at least as of yet.
Russia is monitoring Europe’s experiments to manage international migration and its demographic strategies with particular attention. Conservative analysts regard what is going on in Europe as another reason to restrict migration inflows to Russia (thus avoiding the mistakes committed by Europe). Some believe that Russia has to become a legitimate heir of Europe’s traditional values (such as family, faith, state) which Europe is giving up one by one. For liberals, Russia and Europe are sharing the same demographic problems. On the one hand, it proves that Russia is a European nation. On the other, it necessitates closer cooperation between Moscow and Brussels on demography and international migration.
This text was prepared as part of the international project on the legitimacy issues of the European Union under the German Hanns-Seidel Foundation. From our partner RIAC
Iceland’s Historic(al) Elections
The morning of September, 26 was a good one for Lenya Run Karim of the Pirate Party. Once the preliminary results were announced, things were clear: the 21-year-old law student of the University of Iceland, originating from a Kurdish immigrant family, had become the youngest MP in the country’s history.
In historical significance, however, this event was second to another. Iceland, the world champion in terms of gender equality, became the first country in Europe to have more women MPs than men, 33 versus 30. The news immediately made world headlines: only five countries in the world have achieved such impressive results. Remarkably, all are non-European: Rwanda, Nicaragua and Cuba have a majority of women in parliament, while Mexico and the UAE have an equal number of male and female MPs.
Nine hours later, news agencies around the world had to edit their headlines. The recount in the Northwest constituency affected the outcome across the country to delay the ‘triumph for women’ for another four years.
Small numbers, big changes
The Icelandic electoral system is designed so that 54 out of the 63 seats in the Althingi, the national parliament, are primary or constituency seats, while another nine are equalization seats. Only parties passing the 5 per cent threshold are allowed to distribute equalisation seats that go to the candidates who failed to win constituency mandates and received the most votes in their constituency. However, the number of equalisation mandates in each of the 6 constituencies is legislated. In theory, this could lead to a situation in which the leading party candidate in one constituency may simply lack an equalisation mandate, so the leading candidate of the same party—but in another constituency—receives it.
This is what happened this year. Because of a difference of only ten votes between the Reform Party and the Pirate Party, both vying for the only equalisation mandate in the Northwest, the constituency’s electoral commission announced a recount on its own initiative. There were also questions concerning the counting procedure as such: the ballots were not sealed but simply locked in a Borgarnes hotel room. The updated results hardly affected the distribution of seats between the parties, bringing in five new MPs, none of whom were women, with the 21-year-old Lenya Run Karim replaced by her 52-year-old party colleague.
In the afternoon of September, 27, at the request of the Left-Green Movement, supported by the Independence Party, the Pirates and the Reform Party, the commission in the South announced a recount of their own—the difference between the Left-Greens and the Centrists was only seven votes. There was no ‘domino effect’, as in the case of the Northwest, as the five-hour recount showed the same result. Recounts in other districts are unlikely, nor is it likely that Althingi—vested with the power to declare the elections valid—would invalidate the results in the Northwest. Nevertheless, the ‘replaced’ candidates have already announced their intention to appeal against the results, citing violations of ballot storage procedures. Under the Icelandic law, this is quite enough to invalidate the results and call a re-election in the Northwest, as the Supreme Court of Iceland invalidated the Constitutional Council elections due to a breach of procedure 10 years ago. Be that as it may, the current score remains 33:30, in favor of men.
Progressives’ progress and threshold for socialists
On the whole, there were no surprises: the provisional allocation of mandates resembles, if with minor changes, the opinion polls on the eve of the election.
The ruling three-party coalition has rejuvenated its position, winning 37 out of the 63 Althingi seats. The centrist Progressive Party saw a real electoral triumph, improving its 2017 result by five seats. Prime-minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir’s Left-Green Movement, albeit with a slight loss, won eight seats, surpassing all pre-election expectations. Although the centre-right Independence Party outperformed everyone again to win almost a quarter of all votes, 16 seats are one of the worst results of the Icelandic ‘Grand Old Party’ ever.
The results of the Social-Democrats, almost 10% versus 12.1% in 2017, and of the Pirates, 8.6% versus 9.2%, have deteriorated. Support for the Centre Party of Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson, former prime-minister and victim of the Panama Papers, has halved from 10.9% to 5.4%. The centrists have seen a steady decline in recent years, largely due to a sexist scandal involving party MPs. The populist People’s Party and the pro-European Reform Party have seen gains of 8.8% and 8.3%, as compared to 6.9% and 6.7% in the previous elections.
Of the leading Icelandic parties, only the Socialist Party failed to pass the 5 per cent threshold: despite a rating above 7% in August, the Socialists received only 4.1% of the vote.
Coronavirus, climate & economy
Healthcare and the fight against COVID-19 was, expectedly, on top of the agenda of the elections: 72% of voters ranked it as the defining issue, according to a Fréttablaðið poll. Thanks to swift and stringent measures, the Icelandic government brought the coronavirus under control from day one, and the country has enjoyed one of the lowest infection rates in the world for most of the time. At the same time, the pandemic exposed a number of problems in the national healthcare system: staff shortages, low salaries and long waiting lists for emergency surgery.
Climate change, which Icelanders are already experiencing, was an equally important topic. This summer, the temperature has not dropped below 20°C for 59 days, an anomaly for a North-Atlantic island. However, Icelanders’ concerns never converted into increased support for the four left-leaning parties advocating greater reductions in CO2 emission than the country has committed to under the Paris Agreement: their combined result fell by 0.5%.
The economy and employment were also among the main issues in this election. The pandemic has severely damaged the island nation’s economy, which is heavily tourism-reliant—perhaps, unsurprisingly, many Icelanders are in favor of reviving the tourism sector as well as diversifying the economy further.
The EU membership, by far a ‘traditional’ issue in Icelandic politics, is unlikely to be featured on the agenda of the newly-elected parliament as the combined result of the Eurosceptics, despite a loss of 4%, still exceeds half of the overall votes. The new Althingi will probably face the issue of constitutional reform once again, which is only becoming more topical in the light of the pandemic and the equalization mandates story.
New (old) government?
The parties are to negotiate coalition formation. The most likely scenario now is that the ruling coalition of the Independence Party, the Left-Greens and the Progressives continues. It has been the most ideologically diverse and the first three-party coalition in Iceland’s history to last a full term. A successful fight against the pandemic has only strengthened its positions and helped it secure additional votes. Independence Party leader and finance minister Bjarni Benediktsson has earlier said he would be prepared to keep the ruling coalition if it holds the majority. President Guðni Jóhannesson announced immediately after the elections that he would confirm the mandate of the ruling coalition to form a new government if the three parties could strike a deal.
Other developments are possible but unlikely. Should the Left-Greens decide to leave the coalition, they could be replaced by the Reform Party or the People’s Party, while any coalition without the Independence Party can only be a four-party or larger coalition.
Who will become the new prime-minister still remains to be seen—but if the ruling coalition remains in place, the current prime-minister and leader of the Left-Greens, Katrín Jakobsdóttir, stands a good chance of keeping her post: she is still the most popular politician in Iceland with a 40 per cent approval rate.
The 2021 Althingi election, with one of the lowest turnouts in history at 80.1%, has not produced a clear winner. The election results reflect a Europe-wide trend in which traditional “major” parties are losing support. The electorate is fragmenting and their votes are pulled by smaller new parties. The coronavirus pandemic has only reinforced this trend.
The 2021 campaign did not foreshadow a sensation. Although Iceland has not become the first European country with a women’s majority in parliament, these elections will certainly go down in history as a test of Icelanders’ trust to their own democracy.
From our partner RIAC
EU-Balkan Summit: No Set Timeframe for Western Balkans Accession
On October 6, Slovenia hosted a summit between the EU and the Western Balkans states. The EU-27 met with their counterparts (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Kosovo) in the sumptuous Renaissance setting of Brdo Castle, 30 kilometers north of the capital, Ljubljana. Despite calls from a minority of heads of state and government, there were no sign of a breakthrough on the sensitive issue of enlargement. The accession of these countries to the European Union is still not unanimous among the 27 EU member states.
During her final tour of the Balkans three weeks ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that the peninsula’s integration was of “geostrategic” importance. On the eve of the summit, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz backed Slovenia’s goal of integrating this zone’s countries into the EU by 2030.
However, the unanimity required to begin the hard negotiations is still a long way off, even for the most advanced countries in the accession process, Albania and North Macedonia. Bulgaria, which is already a member of the EU, is opposing North Macedonia’s admission due to linguistic and cultural differences. Since Yugoslavia’s demise, Sofia has rejected the concept of Macedonian language, insisting that it is a Bulgarian dialect, and has condemned the artificial construction of a distinct national identity.
Other countries’ reluctance to join quickly is of a different nature. France and the Netherlands believe that previous enlargements (Bulgaria and Romania in 2007) have resulted in changes that must first be digested before the next round of enlargement. The EU-27 also demand that all necessary prior guarantees be provided regarding the independence of the judiciary and the fight against corruption in these countries. Despite the fact that press freedom is a requirement for membership, the NGO Reporters Without Borders (RSF) urged the EU to make “support for investigative and professional journalism” a key issue at the summit.”
While the EU-27 have not met since June, the topic of Western Balkans integration is competing with other top priorities in the run-up to France’s presidency of the EU in the first half of 2022. On the eve of the summit, a working dinner will be held, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called for “a strategic discussion on the role of the Union on the international scene” in his letter of invitation to the EU-Balkans Summit, citing “recent developments in Afghanistan,” the announcement of the AUKUS pact between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, which has enraged Paris.
The Western Balkans remain the focal point of an international game of influence in which the Europeans seek to maintain their dominance. As a result, the importance of reaffirming a “European perspective” at the summit was not an overstatement. Faced with the more frequent incursion of China, Russia, and Turkey in that European region, the EU has pledged a 30 billion euro Economic and Investment Plan for 2021-2027, as well as increased cooperation, particularly to deal with the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Opening the borders, however, is out of the question. In the absence of progress on this issue, Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia have decided to establish their own zone of free movement (The Balkans are Open”) beginning January 1, 2023. “We are starting today to do in the region what we will do tomorrow in the EU,” said Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama when the agreement was signed last July.
This initiative, launched in 2019 under the name “Mini-Schengen” and based on a 1990s idea, does not have the support of the entire peninsular region, which remains deeply divided over this project. While Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro are not refusing to be a part of it and are open to discussions, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who took office in 2020, for his part accuses Serbia of relying on this project to recreate “a fourth Yugoslavia”
Tensions between Balkan countries continue to be an impediment to European integration. The issue of movement between Kosovo and Serbia has been a source of concern since the end of September. Two weeks of escalation followed Kosovo’s decision to prohibit cars with Serbian license plates from entering its territory, in response to Serbia’s long-standing prohibition on allowing vehicles to pass in the opposite direction.
In response to the mobilization of Kosovar police to block the road, Serbs in Kosovo blocked roads to their towns and villages, and Serbia deployed tanks and the air force near the border. On Sunday, October 3, the conflict seemed to be over, and the roads were reopened. However, the tone had been set three days before the EU-Balkans summit.
German Election: Ramifications for the US Foreign Policy
In the recent German election, foreign policy was scarcely an issue. But Germany is an important element in the US foreign policy. There is a number of cases where Germany and the US can cooperate, but all of these dynamics are going to change very soon.
The Germans’ strategic culture makes it hard to be aligned perfectly with the US and disagreements can easily damage the relations. After the tension between the two countries over the Iraq war, in 2003, Henry Kissinger said that he could not imagine the relations between Germany and the US could be aggravated so quickly, so easily, which might end up being the “permanent temptation of German politics”. For a long time, the US used to provide security for Germany during the Cold War and beyond, so, several generations are used to take peace for granted. But recently, there is a growing demand on them to carry more burden, not just for their own security, but for international peace and stability. This demand was not well-received in Berlin.
Then, the environment around Germany changed and new threats loomed up in front of them. The great powers’ competition became the main theme in international relations. Still, Germany was not and is not ready for shouldering more responsibility. Politicians know this very well. Ursula von der Leyen, who was German defense minister, asked terms like “nuclear weapons” and “deterrence” be removed from her speeches.
Although on paper, all major parties appreciate the importance of Germany’s relations with the US, the Greens and SPD ask for a reset in the relations. The Greens insist on the European way in transatlantic relations and SPD seeks more multilateralism. Therefore, alignment may be harder to maintain in the future. However, If the tensions between the US and China heat up to melting degrees, then external pressure can overrule the internal pressure and Germany may accede to its transatlantic partners, just like when Helmut Schmid let NATO install medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe after the Soviet Union attacked Afghanistan and the Cold War heated up.
According to the election results, now three coalitions are possible: grand coalition with CDU/CSU and SPD, traffic lights coalition with SPD, FDP, and Greens, Jamaica coalition with CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens. Jamaica coalition will more likely form the most favorable government for the US because it has both CDU and FDP, and traffic lights will be the least favorite as it has SPD. The grand coalition can maintain the status quo at best, because contrary to the current government, SPD will dominate CDU.
To understand nuances, we need to go over security issues to see how these coalitions will react to them. As far as Russia is concerned, none of them will recognize the annexation of Crimea and they all support related sanctions. However, if tensions heat up, any coalition government with SPD will be less likely assertive. On the other hand, as the Greens stress the importance of European values like democracy and human rights, they tend to be more assertive if the US formulates its foreign policy by these common values and describe US-China rivalry as a clash between democracy and authoritarianism. Moreover, the Greens disapprove of the Nordstream project, of course not for its geopolitics. FDP has also sided against it for a different reason. So, the US must follow closely the negotiations which have already started between anti-Russian smaller parties versus major parties.
For relations with China, pro-business FDP is less assertive. They are seeking for developing EU-China relations and deepening economic ties and civil society relations. While CDU/CSU and Greens see China as a competitor, partner, and systemic rival, SPD and FDP have still hopes that they can bring change through the exchange. Thus, the US might have bigger problems with the traffic lights coalition than the Jamaica coalition in this regard.
As for NATO and its 2 percent of GDP, the division is wider. CDU/CSU and FDP are the only parties who support it. So, in the next government, it might be harder to persuade them to pay more. Finally, for nuclear participation, the situation is the same. CDU/CSU is the only party that argues for it. This makes it an alarming situation because the next government has to decide on replacing Germany’s tornados until 2024, otherwise Germany will drop out of the NATO nuclear participation.
The below table gives a brief review of these three coalitions. 1 indicates the lowest level of favoritism and 3 indicates the highest level of favoritism. As it shows, the most anti-Russia coalition is Jamaica, while the most anti-China coalition is Trafic light. Meanwhile, Grand Coalition is the most pro-NATO coalition. If the US adopts a more normative foreign policy against China and Russia, then the Greens and FDP will be more assertive in their anti-Russian and anti-Chinese policies and Germany will align more firmly with the US if traffic light or Jamaica coalition rise to power.
|Issues Coalitions||Trafic Light||Grand Coalition||Jamaica|
1 indicates the lowest level of favoritism. 3 indicates the highest level of favoritism.
In conclusion, this election should not make Americans any happier. The US has already been frustrated with the current government led by Angela Merkel who gave Germany’s trade with China the first priority, and now that the left-wing will have more say in any imaginable coalition in the future, the Americans should become less pleased. But, still, there are hopes that Germany can be a partner for the US in great power competition if the US could articulate its foreign policy with common values, like democracy and human rights. More normative foreign policy can make a reliable partner out of Germany. Foreign policy rarely became a topic in this election, but observers should expect many ramifications for it.
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