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Southeast Asia

Arms and Allies: Comments on Junta Chief’s Russia Visit and Beyond



Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) and Myanmar Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing. Vadim Savitsky / Russian Defense Ministry Press Office / TASS

Three days after the United Nations General Assembly adopted a non-binding resolution calling for an arms embargo on Myanmar and condemning its military’s seizure of power, on 21 June 2021, the coup leader Min Aung Hlaing boarded on a special jet to Russia on a weeklong trip that would realign Myanmar’s foreign policy priorities amid growing post-coup isolationism. Though the said purpose of the visit was to attend the Moscow Conference on International Security, junta chief’s latest overture to Russia was indeed an elaborate arms shopping trip and a part of the regime’s desperate quest for global legitimacy and allies. While it may appear to the coup leader that the key to Kremlin’s heart is always through lucrative arms deals, developments suggest that Moscow’s reciprocation fell short of a full embrace.

In his meeting with Russian Defense Minister General Sergey Shoygu, Junta Chief Min Aung Hlaing expressed his gratitude, saying, ‘Thanks to Russia, Tatmadaw has emerged as one of the strongest armies of the region.’ Russian military hardware, technology and training have been the lifeblood in Myanmar military’s modernization and diversification campaign that has started since Min Aung Hlaing assumed the position of Joint Chief of Staff in 2010. The outcomes of Min Aung Hlaing’s latest visit to Moscow in terms of arms purchase have not been disclosed. However, it was recently mentioned by the head of Russia’s AK Bars shipyard that an ASEAN country (possibly Myanmar) wants the company to build a patrol ship plant in that country and train its crew. Myanmar’s ‘notorious’ tycoon U Tay Za also flew in from Singapore, sat in meetings with regime leaders and was a part of Min Aung Hlaing’s entourage during the visit. Throughout the 2000s, U Tay Za’s business empire was integral to Tatmadaw’s plan to buy weapons from overseas while evading harsh sanctions from Western countries.

There are substantial reasons to assume that arms trade may account for a dominant part of the regime’s foreign policy reach out. Lucrative arms deals will be strategically used to buy silence or seek alliance of neighboring or influential countries. A country’s foreign policy is ideally shaped by the interests, values and aspirations of its people. However, in case of post-coup Myanmar, where the ruling regime stands at odds with the people’s interests, diplomatic outreach thrives on the trade of killing machines. Since domestic contracts for Russian arms companies have been slowly decreasing, Moscow is likely to exploit such opportunity to the fullest. India, a neighbor of Myanmar, is also likely to respond positively to such gestures considering that the country is seeking to boost its military export as a part of Atmanirbhar Bharat campaign and eyeing on a achieving a $26-billion defense industry, with US$5-billion defense exports by 2025. 

Having extensive arms deals with neighboring and odd ball regimes have already reaped benefits for the junta. The United Nations General Assembly’ June resolution on Myanmar can be considered as an example. Belarus was the only country to vote against UNGA’s call to “prevent the flow of arms into Myanmar”. The stance of Belarus, another authoritative regime, may owe to the country’s defense ties with Myanmar. Belarus is one of the largest arms exporters in the world and ranked 19th in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)’s list of top 25 arms exporter 2016-20. According to Justice for Myanmar, the Southeast Asian nation accounts for 13 percent of total Belarusian arms export. Belarus and Myanmar, under the previous junta regime, formed a joint commission for defense tech cooperation. Myanmar was the first country to procure Belarusian Kvadrat-M SAM missile system. The Eastern European country’s arms factories were visited by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in 2014 and by a parliamentary delegation led by the speaker of former USDP hybrid regime Major General Khin Aung Myint (rtd.) in 2017. Following junta’s killing spree on March 27 (Armed Forces Day) which took more than 100 lives all over Myanmar, Belarusian state media has published propaganda calling the pro-democracy civil disobedience movement activists ‘terrorists’.

Tatmadaw’s extensive reliance on Russian arms industry has also prompted the latter to assume an unusually vocal role in support of junta regime following the February 1 coup. Russia maintained a policy of describing the military takeover as a purely ‘domestic event of a sovereign state’ and contributed significantly in diluting statements from the United Nations Security Council condemning the coup. Russian support for the regime made a glaring manifestation when Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander V. Fomin, in full military uniform, attended Myanmar’s Armed Forces Day celebrations, received medal and a ceremonial sword as a gift from a regime and expressed hope of more robust military ties in coming days. Myanmar’s democratic reform in the early 2010s coincided with an elaborate modernization campaign of its military. Former President Thein Sein voiced the need to create what he described as a ‘World Class Tatmadaw’. Min Aung Hlaing has been at the helm of Myanmar’s military since the modernization campaign started. One of the major goals of this campaign was to diversify the sources of Myanmar’s weaponry, i.e., reduce the reliance on Chinese military hardware. China’s historic support for Myanmar’s communist guerillas and its existing liaisons with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) has always prompted Tatmadaw to keep a cautious eye on its reliance on Beijing. Its relationship with Moscow, on the other hand, has been free of such historic baggage. As a result, between 1999 and 2018, Myanmar’s import of military hardware from Moscow (US$ 1.5 billion) stands closely with its import from Beijing (US$ 1.6 billion).

Coup leaders’ shopping spree comes at a time when Myanmar economy has been on the verge of a major collapse due to post-coup unrest and impact of covid-19. The World Bank has made prediction that by the end of 2021, Myanmar economy is likely to contract by 10 percent, a sharp reversal of its previous estimation made in October 2020 that the country might see a 5.9 percent growth in its economy. According to the estimation of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the country’s population living below poverty line has doubled, going up to 25 million from 12 million. Even before coup, average income for more than 83 percent of households have been halved. According to World Food Programme (WFP), more than 3.4 million people, mostly in urban areas, will be hungry by the end of this year. In Junta’s attempt to make the economy functional, private banks have been threatened with fines and nationalization. Severe cash shortages, however, have made regular banking operations barely possible. As the country’s legal economy is about to go through a significant shrink cancelling the economic gains made over a decade, Myanmar’s illicit economy is likely to get a major boost. Previous military regimes have also encouraged unsustainable resource extraction as the easiest source of revenue. This would undoubtedly lead to environmental degradation and conflict with local populace where these resources are located at. Narcotic trade is also likely to receive a boost. Thailand has already seen a surge in the influx of methamphetamine pills. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has also released a warning in this regard.

Since its independence in 1948, Myanmar army has not fought a single battle against external aggressions. Rather, its heavy-handed policy towards the ethnic groups and refusal to accept federalization envisaged as one of the founding principles of the country, have plunged Myanmar into a perpetual civil war. The coup and subsequent unrest have displaced an estimated 230,000 people in Myanmar. Tatmadaw’s offensives have disrupted the peace and stability of Southeast Asia and made the region the fifth largest source of refugees in the world. So, the great question, however, lies not on where these arms come from, but on where these arms will be used. The people of Myanmar are always on the receiving end of Tatmadaw’s bullets and salvos. A country’s foreign policy and diplomatic maneuvers is supposed to bring investments, new technologies, peace and progress. Under Myanmar’s regime, one can expect nothing but death and destruction.

M.D. Amin is a Bangladesh-based journalist and independent researcher. He is also working as a Consultant to Shokoler Jonno Sushashon (Good Governance to All), a civil society organization. He has completed his graduation and postgraduation in cultural anthropology.

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Southeast Asia

Transforming Social Protection Delivery in the Philippines through PhilSys



Social protection helps the poor and vulnerable in a country, especially in times of crises and shocks that may threaten the well-being of families. When COVID-19 hit and quarantines began, the Philippines needed a massive expansion of social protection coverage to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. Countries that already had good and inclusive digital infrastructure (including internet connectivity, digital identification, digital payments and integrated data ecosystems) were better equipped to quickly adapt their social protection programs to meet urgent needs. They also fared better in maintaining continuity of services when in-person interactions could be moved online.

For the Philippines, it presented a challenge, and strain was felt in the delivery of social assistance under the Bayanihan acts.

Fortunately, the country is moving to address digital infrastructure gaps, including through the development of the Philippine Identification System (PhilSys). PhilSys is one of the most complex – but also game-changing – projects undertaken in the country.

The Philippines is one of only 23 countries without a national ID system. As a result, Filipinos need to present multiple IDs (and often specific IDs that many do not have) when transacting, including with government, creating barriers to services for the most vulnerable among the population. Information across government databases is often inconsistent. These undermine the Philippines’ transition to a digital economy, society and government. The PhilSys will help address this by providing all Filipinos with a unique and verifiable digital ID (and not just a card), while also adopting innovative and practical data protection and privacy-by-design measures.

The new partnership agreement between the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) for DSWD’s adoption of the PhilSys is a milestone for the Philippines’ social protection and digital transformation journeys. DSWD will be the first agency to utilize the secure biometric and SMS-based identity authentication offered by the PhilSys to uniquely identify and verify its beneficiaries. Pilots with the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) and Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situations (AICS) program will begin within the next few months, before PhilSys is used by all DSWD programs.

Adopting PhilSys will enable DSWD to further accelerate its digital transformation. By automating verification and business processes for its programs and services, DSWD will be able to improve the impact while reducing the costs of social protection programs. PhilSys will assist with identifying and removing ghost, duplicate and deceased beneficiaries to address leakages, fraud and corruption, and thus boost transparency and public trust. The unified beneficiary database that DSWD is developing with the help of PhilSys will contain up-to-date and consistent beneficiary information across all programs.

The World Bank is supporting these DSWD initiatives through the Beneficiary FIRST (standing for Fast, Innovative and Responsive Service Transformation) social protection project.

Importantly, these changes will translate to benefits for Filipinos.

Those who interact with the DSWD will face less paperwork, queues, hassle, costs and time. With their PhilSys ID, they will also have better access to a bank or e-money account where they can potentially receive payments directly in the future, promoting financial inclusion. Indeed, more than 5 million low-income Filipinos have already opened bank accounts during PhilSys registration. And the resources that DSWD saves can be redirected to addressing the needs of beneficiaries who live in remote areas without easy access to internet and social protection programs.

Beyond the advantages for social protection, the digital transformation PhilSys will catalyze in the public and private sectors can be fundamental to the Philippines’ pivot to reviving the economy and getting poverty eradication back on track. Success in utilizing PhilSys for social protection will have a significant demonstration effect in accelerating digital transformation by other government agencies as well as the private sector.

But digital transformation is not easy. It is not about simply digitizing things. It is about re-imagining how things can be done for the better, with technology as an enabler. Digitizing bad systems or processes just leads to bad systems or processes digitalized. Digital transformation therefore depends on and can only be as fast as process re-engineering and institutional and bureaucratic changes to overcome inertia.

Digital transformation must also be inclusive to avoid exacerbating digital divides or creating new ones.

The effort will be worth it. And the World Bank is firmly committed to scale up our support to the Philippines’ digital transformation agenda. A digital Philippines will not only be more resilient to future shocks – whether they are natural disasters or pandemics – but also be poised to take advantage of the opportunities brought by COVID-19 (shift of activities online) and those that lie ahead in the post COVID-19 world.
 first published in The Philippine Star, via World Bank

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Southeast Asia

Bringing “the people” back in: Forest Resources Conservation with Dr. Apichart Pattaratuma



With a lifetime dedicated to forest conservation, Dr. Apichart Pattaratuma reflected back on his career and what forest management means to Thailand. In the year 1978, he received the prestigious United Nations and Ananda Mahidol Foundation Scholarship to attain higher education at the College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, USA. After graduating in the year 1985, he returned to Thailand with a commitment to teach and research at the Department of Forest Management, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University until his retirement with full professor position. The excerpts below encapsulated a conversation between Dr. Pattaratuma and Dr. Rattana Lao on forest conservation.

Beyond the classroom: An anthropological perspective

I dedicated my life to study the anthropological aspect of forest management to His Majesty King Bhumibol Aduyadej of Thailand. I studied cultural dimensions of forest management in many areas of Thailand. I began with Huay Hin Dam with Karen hill tribe (Pra-ka-ker -yor) Suphanburi Province. I tried to review the international literature on land use and combine it with in-depth interviews with the hill tribes to understand the cultural dimensions of their livelihoods. I observed how they built their houses and how their managed their forest. There are three characteristics of the Karen tribe. Firstly, they lived on small plots of lands and their houses are very small. Secondly, they conserve their forest land with water resources. Thirdly, they refrain from using pesticides. Culturally, there is a clear division of labor amongst men and women. While men will clear the lands, women will cultivate agricultural goods such as papaya, guava and banana. There is limited drugs use.

It’s liberating to do research beyond the classrooms. To observe real live, real changes. I learnt more than I set out to do and they are all interrelated to a bigger picture.

Intersectionality between culture, migration and forest management

Karen hill tribes migrate in a cluster. There are more than 3 families migrating together to the new fertile forest land. They will migrate together when land is exhausted. This is most evident in the borderland between Thailand and Myanmar. Back then they did not have official documentation but slowly they do. There has been an influx of hill tribes from Myanmar to Thailand due to political conflicts from Myanmar. From my observation, they are very conscious about forest conservation and resources management. They said: “no forest, no water”. They are compelled to protect the forest from pesticides in order to keep the water clean and their health well. They are very logical. Although they grow rice, it’s very subsistent and only for household consumption. They don’t grow rice for commercial purpose. This is the land use for Karen hill tribe.

I also studied in Kampeangpetch, Nan, Chiang Rai, Phrae and Lumphun. Each place is diverse and the situation is really different. Some local tribes are preserving of the forests, others are more detrimental. We need an in-depth study to understand the cultural dimension of land use for each tribe.

The heart of forest management

People. It’s the people. People must particulate in the forest management. Otherwise, it is very difficult. When we go into each location, we must approach people and bring them into the conversation. I have tried to do all my life. Civil servants must approach people, not other way around. People are looking up to our action. They look into our sincerity and commitment. If they see that we are committed to study about their livelihood, they will share the right information and they will help.

Indonesia is a good example of successful forest management. The state get people involved. In every kilometer, there are four actors involved in protecting the forest: soldiers, policemen, villager and forester. They help each other protecting the wildlife and forest resources.

Can legal change help the people?

Legal relaxation can help lessen the pressure between man and forest. Before the legal requirement was very strict. Any kind of forest intrusion would be caught including small hunters gatherers. I think that is too strict. That put people against the law. People should be able to go into the forest and pick up some mushroom and bamboo and some wild products to lessen their poverty and hunger.

As long as people are still hungry, it’s very hard to manage the forest. There must be a way to balance the two: people livelihood and forest management.

Capitalists invasion

Much of the legal attention is paid to small farmers use of the forests. However, the real issue is big corporations invade the forest. This is very significant. Deforestation happens mostly from large scale corporation rather than small scale farmers. There are many loopholes in the system that lead to systemic corruption and mismanagement of land use. Many wealthy houses are built on large scale timber to exemplify wealth and status. It saddens me.

Would the next generation get to see large tree in the forest?

Less likely.

What can we do to protect the forest?

There are many organizations that responsible for the forest protection such as Royal Forest Department, Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation and Department of Marine and Coastal Resources. But the manpower are not sufficient to cover the large area of forest in Thailand. There are not enough permanent manpower to go on the ground and protect forest resources, while the intruders to National Parks are equipped with more advanced weaponry.

To protect the forest, the state must be committed and the people must participate in the process.

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Southeast Asia

Possibilities for a Multilateral Initiative between ASEAN-Bangladesh-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific



In the Indo-Pacific context, there are multiple partners all aiming for economic fulfillment along with maritime security and safety. Countries ranging from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea seem to be more worried about the freedom of navigation and overflight as Chinese aggressiveness is rampant and expansionist is a scary idea. The region from India to Bangladesh has a huge potential of interconnectedness and if connected to the Southeast Asian countries, it would also help in India’s Act East Policy and India’s neighbourhood first policy and further help out in strengthening relations to the far East as in Japan. All these countries combined can create an interconnected chain of mutual and common interests with balanced ideas of economic, military, social, political and people to people exchanges which would in turn help develop a multilateral.

Who can lead this Multilateral Initiative and Why?

Japan can be the prime crusader for this multilateral as it has excellent relations with all the parties and is the pioneer of the free and open Indo-Pacific. Japan has excellent diplomatic, economic and infrastructural relations with all the possible partners as it provides ODA loans, aid and assistance. Japan being the pioneer of Free and Open Indo-Pacific can be guiding force for this multilateral in the maritime domain which would help create a new regional grouping consisting of South Asia and Southeast Asia primarily based on maritime. Japan is the only developed country among all the other players and with its expertise, it can surely guide, help, support and take along all the countries. Japan most importantly is a non-aggressive nation and believes in mutual respect unlike China. Japan has no dept trap issue unlike China. Japan is known for quality in infrastructural development and with their expertise in science, technology and innovation can well lead these countries. Japan’s reputation of honesty, no corruption and extreme detailed paper work is commendable.

What are the benefits from this Multilateral Initiative?

This multilateral would help connect the Indian Ocean (India) to Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh) to the South China Sea (ASEAN) and the East China Sea (Japan)- would help in the creation of water interconnected network from South Asia to Southeast Asia. This could be the first regional maritime grouping covering South Asia to Southeast Asia. This maritime grouping can create a network of ports which could also become an economic hub and intersecting points of investment and infrastructural development (already Japan is investing in a big way in all these countries). India’s Northeast would get a greater economic, infrastructural and people-to-people exchange as it would connect India to Bangladesh and Myanmar. Mekong Ganga Economic Corridor already exists and could pave the way for Bangladesh and Kolkata greater port exchange which could be developed as nodal points in Bay of Bengal and would help in easy and cheaper freight. These countries can also aim for the strengthening of defence and security relations in the domain of maritime and can also aim for a logistics support agreement and a network from Indian Ocean to Bay of Bengal to South China Sea to East China Sea and would help tackle Chinese aggressiveness and China has been mapping the waters in all these waters and so, to protect one’s territorial sovereignty and integrity, defence relations must be build.

An ecosystem based on Digitalization, Science, technology and Innovation can be formed which would help create a united cyber security law and all this could ultimately lead to the 4th Industrial Revolution. South Asia and Southeast Asia would be lucrative markets and labour distribution and generation of employment can be done through the ports, logistics network, economic and trade exchanges and interactions. This multilateral would form a resilient supply chain in the region of South Asia and Southeast Asia in the domain of Indo-Pacific. Marine economy can be a major factor of this multilateral initiative as it would be a major success in the maritime domain. This multilateral can also work on vaccine diplomacy and work on future health hazards mechanisms.

Why Bangladesh must think of adopting the Indo-Pacific Strategy?

Bangladesh must adopt the Indo-Pacific strategy and create its own objects and call it the SAMODHRO NITI. Bangladesh has the capability of being an excellent maritime power and it is a major leader in the Bay of Bengal and to be an effective part of this multilateral. The Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B) would be a key binder. Bangladesh must realise that China by building dams on the Brahmaputra River would actually create issues for Bangladesh’s fishery catchment areas as it would get inundated with salt water and to stop that Bangladesh must work to strengthen its position to tackle China. Also, China could also create water issues for Bangladesh and Bangladesh must look at ways to safe guard its water resources. Thereby, Bangladesh must work towards countries who face similar issues with China. The Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor is an excellent example of cooperation but this Multilateral if formed can be a stronger initiative and Bangladesh benefits from it as being a hub of textile, leather and pharmaceuticals and this Multilateral has all the efficiency of becoming an economic hub which would benefit Bangladesh too. If Bangladesh adopts an Indo-Pacific Policy, then its market in Japan, the US and Europe would become stronger due to shared interests and can also sign a Free Trade Agreement with EU like Vietnam did.

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