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Implications of Sisi’s congratulatory speech on the centenary of the Communist Party of China

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The most important thing that stopped me in the speech of President (El-Sisi), during the presentation of his speech concerning the circumstances of the establishment of the modern Chinese state and the success of its revolution in 1949, which comes in similar circumstances to the (June 30 revolution) in Egypt, which was led by President “El-Sisi ” after millions of crowds that demanded him at the time as a minister of Defense standing by the revolting Egyptian people against the rule of the (Muslim Brotherhood), which Egyptians celebrate these days on the occasion of (June 30 revolution), in similar circumstances to the (Communist Party) of China’s celebration of its centenary and its 100th anniversary on July 1 this year.

 This is what brings me as an expert in Chinese political affairs, to shed light on (President El-Sisi’s speech), analyzing it from the angle of (the success story of the ruling Communist Party in China and its centenary celebrated this year, and its similarity relationship with the June 30 revolution in Egypt and its leader, President “El-Sisi”.

 The similarities and differences between the (Chinese Revolution of 1949) and the policies of the Communist Party of China and the (June 30th revolution) in Egypt and the policies of President “El-Sisi”.

  On a personal level, the Egyptian researcher was interested in analyzing a number of general aspects in the similarities between the causes of the (1949 revolution in China), which paved the way for the arrival of the authority of the (Communist Party of China) to power, despite its inception in 1921, and (the June 30 revolution) in Egypt, and what followed a quick and brief reading of the scene in both cases, because of the evidence for that, and quickly highlighting them for what I recently noticed when re-reading the political scene in both Beijing and Egypt, that there are similarities – perhaps many did not pay attention to them – as follows:

 1) The two Egyptian and Chinese revolutions experienced various types of turbulent relations with the West in their infancy: as a result of their choice of independent positions that reflect the real challenges facing their peoples and the region.  This is in addition to the revival of the (national identity) and its contents of opposition to foreign interference in our internal affairs. From 1921 until the (Revolution of 1949) in China, the (Communist Party of China) led all of the Chinese people in hard and bitter struggles, overthrew the rule of imperialism, feudalism and bureaucratic capitalism, and successfully has established the (People’s Republic of China) after the success of its revolution. After the establishment of the republic, the Communist Party of China led its people of all nationalities in safeguarding the country’s independence and security. 

 On the Egyptian side, the beginning of the (June 30 revolution) in Egypt was to overthrow the rule of (militias and religious sects) and preserve (the Egyptian main and basic civil state’s identity), not to divide the country and preserve its unity.

 2) As for the role of the new leaderships in Egypt and China after the revolutions: we note here their clear tendency to strike a balance in their regional and international relations and to correct the imbalances that occurred in them during the previous periods on the Arab, African and international levels.

  3) With regard to the view and vision of the political leaders to the  world after the June 30 revolution in Egypt and the 1949 revolution in China: Both of them made it clear that cooperation is the basis, on condition that this not be done at the expense of the interests of small and medium powers, and that this does not represent an agreement on world domination.

 4) As for the common experiences of both the Egyptian and Chinese revolutions: The two revolutions gained great experience – despite their short period – regarding the international situation and managing their relations with Washington and the West, and re-adapting their systems and policies while continuing their evaluation of their experiences and stages of growth. With their agreement on the need to benefit from the trends of global economic and technological development and modernization as urgent conditions to keep pace with modernization and the mechanisms of the modern era.

 5) To answer the question of the similarity between the beginnings of the Chinese and Egyptian revolution: the Chinese revolution of 1949 emphasized (three main goals), the first one is the (nationalism), it aimed at independence from foreign influence, the second goal is the (unity under a national goal) that governs a central authority, while the third goal is the (radical change in economic and social conditions). The auditor of the three goals finds them to be the same goals of the Egyptian revolution on (June 30) to get out of the mantle of dependency as a new revolution to correct the course and the path of January 25th revolution that brought the authority of Muslim Brotherhood, and to improve economic and living conditions, through the resulting projects and basic infrastructure.

 6) To get acquainted with the generations and leaders who led the revolutions in Egypt and China: Since the strengthening of the authority of the People’s Liberation Army and the ruling Communist Party after the 1949 revolution in China, the rule of China has continued so far by different (five generations) who have formed the “collective leadership” at the top of the party and state pyramid, and this was reflected in the official discourse for the country, every leadership that succeeded in ruling China after the revolution was linked in the mind and mind of the Chinese people, when each of them was characterized by specific features that fall under the (general ideology of the party). Up to the “fifth generation”, or the current one, led by Chinese President (Xi Jinping). But what distinguishes the generations of the (June 30) revolution in Egypt is that it was essentially a (popular revolution) in which all Egyptian national institutions participated, under the slogan (We want the homeland, while they want militias and sects).

 7) The pillars of power after the revolutions (June 30) in Egypt and (1949) in China: Three leadership positions that constitute the three pillars of power in China are (the ruling Communist Party), the state (the government) with all its leaders and formations, then (the People’s Liberation Army) and sometimes it is called (the people’s army) or the armed forces in the common sense. 

   While the pillars of the (June 30) revolution were the so-called (revolutionaries and the state) together, the judiciary sympathized with it from the beginning and was part of it, then the police sympathized with it, and the army, Al-Azhar and the church adopted it, and the youth of the revolution themselves drew up a roadmap for it.

 8) The agreement (the Egyptian and Chinese revolutions) that modernization in their view is a process that requires firm authority to put it into practice: because the most important feature of the June 30 revolution is: the absence of the slogan of overthrowing the regime and the return of the civil state away from any religious polarization.  The unrest after the fall of the rule of the (Muslim Brotherhood) from the increase in terrorist operations and activities, endangering national security, borders of sovereignty, the problem of water, the Renaissance Dam, and tunnels in Sinai  Therefore, it was necessary to (a firm authority) in Egypt after the success of the revolution (June 30th) facing all this chaos and turmoil. 

  On the Chinese side, there is almost agreement that any modernization plan for China will not succeed without eliminating corruption and the corrupt, so look for corruption.The first Chinese leader from the generation of leaders after the revolution (1949) in China to lead an anti-corruption campaign, was (Jiang Zemin), who was keen to address the political mentalities within the Communist Party, and to open up to his fellow party members about the problems and obstacles facing the development and modernization process. In his country, especially corruption, which resulted in a number of problems such as: class disparity in the population, unemployment, poverty, marginalization…etc.

 9) The processes of selecting, preparing and qualifying new leaders in Egypt and China after the revolutions of (June 30) in Egypt and (1949) in China: The selection of young talents in China after the revolution (1949) – comes on the Faraza, as the famous expression in Egypt says – and it is the same idea in particular, which was previously crystallized by the late leader of the march of renewal (Deng Xiaoping), who put forward his famous saying about (the four transformations), and that the political transformations lead to the future of the new China being assumed by young leaders with the following basic qualities:

 to be (revolutionary) and loyal younger age (the issues here are, of course, relative), but with a broader amount of (knowledge) and a greater degree of (specialization at the external level), so it becomes expected that the new Chinese leaders will be keen and work on (crystallizing better relations with the outside), but within a wider framework political and diplomatic scope. 

  On the other hand, one of the most important gains of the (June 30) revolution was the (presidential programmes), so the president (El-Sisi) paid great attention to the youth, by preparing them for leadership, inaugurating the (World Youth Forum), and announcing what is known as (the presidential program to qualify youth for leadership). The idea of ​​which began with announcing the initiative of President (El-Sisi) on it himself in September 2015, with the aim of creating and qualifying a base of youth competencies and qualifying them for political, administrative and societal work in the country, and raising their efficiency with the latest practical and administrative theories to qualify them to plan for the future, and increase their ability to apply the latest methods for facing challenges.

 10) The tyranny of the language (frankness) or (disclosure) of the reality of the prevailing conditions in (the official Chinese and Egyptian political discourses) after the revolutions of (June 30th) in Egypt and (1949) in China: those interested in Chinese affairs stopped for a long time to analyze when the late Chinese leader contemplated  (Jiang Zemin) as he handed over the reins of power to those who would come after him, they were provoked by the tone of (frankness) or (self-criticism) that they are training in (the Cadre School of the ruling Communist Party), and within the framework of this frankness, the Chinese leader (Jian Zemin) did not hesitate to say without equivocation or falsification Comrades:

 “If we do not strike with an iron hand at the hands of corruption and the corrupt, the bond of blood and flesh that is, the bond that binds our party to the masses that binds the party and the masses together will crack and the party will be in danger of losing its ruling position in the country. The party may even find itself heading towards self-destruction”. 

  On the Egyptian side, we note that the speeches of President (El-Sisi) after the (June 30th revolution), from the first moment, were dominated by the language of credibility and frankness as a general approach to his speeches, without making any kind of propaganda. Rather, it was a frankness and disclosure of all the challenges and dangers facing the people.  As (El-Sisi) literally said:

 “From the first moment I stand before you, I want to be honest with you as I have always been, honest with my country, and honest with myself”. Or his literally serious speech in one of his speeches, saying:

“Egyptians have a very difficult, heavy task). So is his discourse (we must be honest with ourselves) and the sentence of (making the future is a joint work, it is a contract between the ruler and his people), or his frank talk (the truth is I want to be honest with you, and the circumstances are as you see and appreciate), or his realistic talk with (I do not offer miracles. Rather, I offer hard work, effort, and self-denial without limits), as well as his promise to the Egyptian people in the realistic context of his speech to them (I promise you that we can together, people and leadership). And other phrases and sentences that were contained in his political discourses in their entirety, which carry the meanings of frankness and truth without a stylized choice of the meanings of words, and these are the same ideas that were brought up in (school or the so-called cadre of the Communist Party in China) after the revolution (1949) in China.

 Through the researcher’s presentation of all the previous points, it becomes clear to us in the evidence the size of the similarity and intersection between the challenges facing both Egypt and China, and this is what prompted China to support Egypt after the (June 30th revolution), with the continued keenness of the Chinese state to continue relations with Egypt during the era of President (El-Sisi) after the June 30 revolution in a positive way, and taking advantage of what has been achieved in previous periods to build stronger and more solid relations and explore new areas and horizons for Egyptian-Chinese cooperation, based on mutual giving, and based on each party’s understanding of the other party’s national interests and responding to them, with what this requires from consolidating the main pillars of the Egyptian-Chinese economic, commercial, cultural and military relations under the leadership of President (Abdel Fattah El-Sisi).

   Hence, I conclude my previous analyzes with what I learned from (China’s policy) and its recent transformations and competition with Washington and others, which is that we must bear in mind – and from my experience and constant communication with the Chinese – that China does not decide its foreign policy based on the rightness or invalidity of matters.  Because this is a political standard that is crowded with emotional and emotional factors, and it does not have practical results.  But it takes the (national interest) as a criterion for its foreign policy.  The point is to say that the preservation of diplomatic policy to the maximum extent of China’s national interests, after careful calculation, is the successful (quiet star of Chinese diplomacy). Therefore, the Chinese rapprochement with Cairo, and Beijing’s support for the demands of the June 30 revolution in Egypt did not come out of nowhere, but rather based on accurate calculations, and it is the conclusive indication of the maturity of (Chinese diplomacy) which opponents witnessed before friends, and how many friends of China are everywhere.

Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Politics and Economics / Beni Suef University- Egypt. An Expert in Chinese Politics, Sino-Israeli relationships, and Asian affairs- Visiting Senior Researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (CMES)/ Lund University, Sweden- Director of the South and East Asia Studies Unit

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Middle East

Process to draft Syria constitution begins this week

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The process of drafting a new constitution for Syria will begin this week, the UN Special Envoy for the country, Geir Pedersen, said on Sunday at a press conference in Geneva.

Mr. Pedersen was speaking following a meeting with the government and opposition co-chairs of the Syrian Constitutional Committee, who have agreed to start the process for constitutional reform.

The members of its so-called “small body”, tasked with preparing and drafting the Constitution, are in the Swiss city for their sixth round of talks in two years, which begin on Monday. 

Their last meeting, held in January, ended without progress, and the UN envoy has been negotiating between the parties on a way forward.

“The two Co-Chairs now agree that we will not only prepare for constitutional reform, but we will prepare and start drafting for constitutional reform,” Mr. Pedersen told journalists.

“So, the new thing this week is that we will actually be starting a drafting process for constitutional reform in Syria.”

The UN continues to support efforts towards a Syrian-owned and led political solution to end more than a decade of war that has killed upwards of 350,000 people and left 13 million in need of humanitarian aid.

An important contribution

The Syrian Constitutional Committee was formed in 2019, comprising 150 men and women, with the Government, the opposition and civil society each nominating 50 people.

This larger group established the 45-member small body, which consists of 15 representatives from each of the three sectors.

For the first time ever, committee co-chairs Ahmad Kuzbari, the Syrian government representative, and Hadi al-Bahra, from the opposition side, met together with Mr. Pedersen on Sunday morning. 

He described it as “a substantial and frank discussion on how we are to proceed with the constitutional reform and indeed in detail how we are planning for the week ahead of us.”

Mr. Pedersen told journalists that while the Syrian Constitutional Committee is an important contribution to the political process, “the committee in itself will not be able to solve the Syrian crisis, so we need to come together, with serious work, on the Constitutional Committee, but also address the other aspects of the Syrian crisis.”

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Middle East

North Africa: Is Algeria Weaponizing Airspace and Natural Gas?

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In a series of shocking and unintelligible decisions, the Algerian Government closed its airspace to Moroccan military and civilian aircraft on September 22, 2021, banned French military planes from using its airspace on October 3rd, and decided not to renew the contract relative to the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, which goes through Morocco and has been up and running since 1996–a contract that comes to end on October 31.

In the case of Morocco, Algeria advanced ‘provocations and hostile’ actions as a reason to shut airspace and end the pipeline contract, a claim that has yet to be substantiated with evidence. Whereas in the case of France, Algeria got angry regarding visa restrictions and comments by French President Emmanuel Macron on the Algerian military grip on power and whether the North African country was a nation prior to French colonization in 1830.

Tensions for decades

Algeria has had continued tensions with Morocco for decades, over border issues and over the Western Sahara, a territory claimed by Morocco as part of its historical territorial unity, but contested by Algeria which supports an alleged liberation movement that desperately fights for independence since the 1970s.

With France, the relation is even more complex and plagued with memories of colonial exactions and liberation and post-colonial traumas, passions and injuries. France and Algeria have therefore developed, over the post-independence decades, a love-hate attitude that quite often mars otherwise strong economic and social relations.

Algeria has often reacted to the two countries’ alleged ‘misbehavior’ by closing borders –as is the case with Morocco since 1994—or calling its ambassadors for consultations, or even cutting diplomatic relations, as just happened in August when it cut ties with its western neighbor.

But it is the first-time Algeria resorts to the weaponization of energy and airspace. “Weaponization” is a term used in geostrategy to mean the use of goods and commodities, that are mainly destined for civilian use and are beneficial for international trade and the welfare of nations, for geostrategic, political and even military gains. As such “weaponization” is contrary to the spirit of free trade, open borders, and solidarity among nations, values that are at the core of common international action and positive globalization.

What happened?

Some observers advance continued domestic political and social unrest in Algeria, whereby thousands of Algerians have been taking to the streets for years to demand regime-change and profound political and economic reforms. Instead of positively responding to the demands of Algerians, the government is probably looking for desperate ways to divert attention and cerate foreign enemies as sources of domestic woes. Morocco and France qualify perfectly for the role of national scapegoats.

It may be true also that in the case of Morocco, Algeria is getting nervous at its seeing its Western neighbor become a main trade and investment partner in Africa, a role it can levy to develop diplomatic clout regarding the Western Sahara issue. Algeria has been looking for ways to curb Morocco’s growing influence in Africa for years. A pro-Algerian German expert, by the name of Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow in the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, even recommended to the EU to put a halt to Morocco’s pace and economic clout so that Algeria could catch up. Weaponization may be a desperate attempt to hurt the Moroccan economy and curb its dynamism, especially in Africa.

The impact of Algeria’s weaponization of energy and airspace on the Moroccan economy is minimal and on French military presence in Mali is close to insignificant; however, it shows how far a country that has failed to administer the right reforms and to transfer power to democratically elected civilians can go.

In a region, that is beleaguered by threats and challenges of terrorism, organized crime, youth bulge, illegal migration and climate change, you would expect countries like Algeria, with its geographic extension and oil wealth, to be a beacon of peace and cooperation. Weaponization in international relations is inacceptable as it reminds us of an age when bullying and blackmail between nations, was the norm. The people of the two countries, which share the same history, language and ethnic fabric, will need natural gas and unrestricted travel to prosper and grow and overcome adversity; using energy and airspace as weapons is at odds with the dreams of millions of young people in Algeria and Morocco that aspire for a brighter future in an otherwise gloomy economic landscape. Please don’t shatter those dreams!

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Middle East

Breaking The Line of the Israel-Palestine Conflict

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The conflict between Israel-Palestine is a prolonged conflict and has become a major problem, especially in the Middle East region.

A series of ceasefires and peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine that occurred repeatedly did not really “normalize” the relationship between the two parties.

In order to end the conflict, a number of parties consider that the two-state solution is the best approach to create two independent and coexistent states. Although a number of other parties disagreed with the proposal, and instead proposed a one-state solution, combining Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip into one big state.

Throughout the period of stalemate reaching an ideal solution, the construction and expansion of settlements carried out illegally by Israel in the Palestinian territories, especially the West Bank and East Jerusalem, also continued without stopping and actually made the prospect of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian crisis increasingly eroded, and this could jeopardize any solutions.

The attempted forced eviction in the Sheikh Jarrah district, which became one of the sources of the conflict in May 2021, for example, is an example of how Israel has designed a system to be able to change the demographics of its territory by continuing to annex or “occupy” extensively in the East Jerusalem area. This is also done in other areas, including the West Bank.

In fact, Israel’s “occupation” of the eastern part of Jerusalem which began at the end of the 1967 war, is an act that has never received international recognition.

This is also confirmed in a number of resolutions issued by the UN Security Council Numbers 242, 252, 267, 298, 476, 478, 672, 681, 692, 726, 799, 2334 and also United Nations General Assembly Resolutions Number 2253, 55/130, 60/104, 70/89, 71/96, A/72/L.11 and A/ES-10/L.22 and supported by the Advisory Opinion issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2004 on Legal Consequences of The Construction of A Wall in The Occupied Palestine Territory which states that East Jerusalem is part of the Palestinian territories under Israeli “occupation”.

1 or 2 country solution

Back to the issue of the two-state solution or the one-state solution that the author mentioned earlier. The author considers that the one-state solution does not seem to be the right choice.

Facts on the ground show how Israel has implemented a policy of “apartheid” that is so harsh against Palestinians. so that the one-state solution will further legitimize the policy and make Israel more dominant. In addition, there is another consideration that cannot be ignored that Israel and Palestine are 2 parties with very different and conflicting political and cultural identities that are difficult to reconcile.

Meanwhile, the idea of ​​a two-state solution is an idea that is also difficult to implement. Because the idea still seems too abstract, especially on one thing that is very fundamental and becomes the core of the Israel-Palestine conflict, namely the “division” of territory between Israel and Palestine.

This is also what makes it difficult for Israel-Palestine to be able to break the line of conflict between them and repeatedly put them back into the status quo which is not a solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

The status quo, is in fact a way for Israel to continue to “annex” more Palestinian territories by establishing widespread and systematic illegal settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Today, more than 600,000 Israeli settlers now live in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

In fact, a number of resolutions issued by the UN Security Council have explicitly and explicitly called for Israel to end the expansion of Israeli settlement construction in the occupied territory and require recognition of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of the region.

Thus, all efforts and actions of Israel both legislatively and administratively that can cause changes in the status and demographic composition in East Jerusalem and the West Bank must continue to be condemned. Because this is a violation of the provisions of international law.

Fundamental thing

To find a solution to the conflict, it is necessary to look back at the core of the conflict that the author has mentioned earlier, and the best way to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to encourage Israel to immediately end the “occupation” that it began in 1967, and return the settlements to the pre-Islamic borders 1967 In accordance with UN Security Council resolution No. 242.

But the question is, who can stop the illegal Israeli settlements in the East Jerusalem and West Bank areas that violate the Palestinian territories?

In this condition, international political will is needed from countries in the world, to continue to urge Israel to comply with the provisions of international law, international humanitarian law, international human rights law and also the UN Security Council Resolutions.

At the same time, the international community must be able to encourage the United Nations, especially the United Nations Security Council, as the organ that has the main responsibility for maintaining and creating world peace and security based on Article 24 of the United Nations Charter to take constructive and effective steps in order to enforce all United Nations Resolutions, and dare to sanction violations committed by Israel, and also ensure that Palestinian rights are important to protect.

So, do not let this weak enforcement of international law become an external factor that also “perpetuates” the cycle of the Israel-Palestine conflict. It will demonstrate that John Austin was correct when he stated that international law is only positive morality and not real law.

And in the end, the most fundamental thing is that the blockade, illegal development, violence, and violations of international law must end. Because the ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict is only a temporary solution to the conflict.

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