In 2014, Narendra Modi stormed the national and international stage like a rockstar. One of the first decisions of the nationalist BJP government was to adopt a leonine trademark containing four lions of Emperor Ashoka symbolizing strength, courage, pride and confidence. India, the elephant, now wanted to become a lion and was ready to pounce. It is not that the dancing elephant had slowed to a waddle; the new government simply didn’t want to be seen as a clumsy pachyderm. It also didn’t want to be a tiger, for there were many tiger economies in Asia itself.
Prime Minister Modi’s personalized diplomacy and his well-choreographed shows in various world capitals were seen by many as a blockbuster performance. Prophesies and pious hopes often go eerily wrong. Seven years later, India is nowhere close to becoming a lion. In fact, the Indian elephant has even stopped dancing. The world will, thus, continue to describe India as an elephant. More so,when the lion didn’t roar. Some would say it did purr. The elephant is back to lumbering its way across the world. What went wrong?
India’s biggest strength all these years was its vibrant democracy as also its multi-faceted diversity. In the 1950s and 1960s, while newly independent countries fell into the hands of the military or autocrats, India kept the banner of democracy aloft. The message that India conveyed much to the admiration of the world was that democracy and development can go together. India’s democratic success, the West believed, extended the hand of democracy globally.
Today, the economy has bombed but politics booms. Not long ago, Sunil Khilnani, scholar of history and politics, wrote that India was “the substantial bridgehead of effervescent liberty on the Asian continent.” Today, he says the credentials of the Modi government don’t stand up to the scrutiny.
India’s global footprint and adulation of its democratic credentials were a powerful endorsement until they weren’t.
The smoke and mirror games don’t make you a world power. History is non-linear, more like a chaotic pile of sand. Things look stable, and then collapse suddenly. The reality often trumps stagecraft.Diplomacy is not alliterative slogans and rhetorical bombast. It is an instrument of good governance and inclusive politics.
The Hindu nationalists’ worldview rests largely on myths and half-truths. It perhaps produces more history than it can consume. Myths do provide attractive answers to unanswerable questions but cause a lot of damage to history, making history tone-deaf to democracy. History is great but we need applied history—learning from the past to improve policy. Not an attractive proposition for the governing party.
There is a sense in the wider world that India has been a big letdown. Projected by many in the West, India was seen as “the future.” However, with battlefields of the past becoming the combat zones of today, India seems to have become captive to its past.
If democracy in India is moving in reverse gear, the economy too has lost its shine. Prime Minister Modi’s 5 trillion-dollar economy dream was always a pipedream. As they say, every dream is a pipedream before someone achieves it.Today, the Indian economy finds itself in stormy water. Many inflated bubbles have burst before our eyes.Most start ups have closed down for lack of investments. Trickle -down economics doesn’t work.
We went to town shouting from rooftops that India was the fastest large economy in the world. But as Amartya Sen noted, India took “a quantum jump in the wrong direction.” You can’t treat the systemic malady with quack remedies. Modi promised el dorado to Indians but delivered very little of what Harvard professor Merilee Grindle calls “good enough governance.”
India had every right to seek a great power status. Under the Modi government, India, “the reluctant global power,” began to behave and act like an inclined great power. Nothing wrong with that. But India failed to connect strategy with execution. Sunanda K Datta-Ray, veteran journalist, believes that India became a world power in the “condescending rhetoric of American diplomats playing up to our political windbags.” The Americans wanted India to be prepared for the “global burden sharing.” India was elated when the Western powers projected it as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean and beyond.
In 2009, Hillary Clinton described India as a “global power.” Ned Price, State Department spokesperson has reaffirmed that India is “a leading global power.” Both the Congress and the BJP governments have sought to borrow shines from India’s association with the US.
Diplomacy under Modi has seen more flash than bang. Modi’s foreign policy at times appears to be what could be described as “peacock dance”—three steps forward, one step backwards and spread colourful feathers. It has suffered from mirror imaging as it resulted in gross distortions of facts to suit its exigencies, resulting in oversights and poor planning. It has also been a victim of what is called “broken biscuit effect”, that is placing greater emphasis on your own views because you think you are special.
In its quest for world power status, New Delhi spread its wings far and wide promising more than it could deliver. In 2015, India hosted the high-profile India-Africa Forum Summit which was a major departure from the low-key summits of 2008 and 2011. With the participation of 39 African heads of State and Government, this summit was touted as the biggest diplomatic event in independent India. But it could not be sustained. India’s Covid diplomacy too was doomed to fail as there was very little thinking and planning. Indian leaders love to quote Chanakya, ancient Indian philosopher, at the drop of a hat but failed to heed his advice, “by failing to plan, you are planning to fail.”
Today Africa is reeling under Covid’s new surge. It has been worsened by slow vaccination progress across the continent, owing to limited availability of vaccines and the western countries buying most of vaccines. Many blame India for its failure to deliver the vaccine.
The Modi government chose to follow a policy of multi-alignment but acted as if one mattered the most. As they say, a single rose could be your garden, but a single friend need not be your world.
The US is a major global power with which India will remain highly engaged. But with Freedom House and V-Dem Institute blaming the BJP government for the backsliding of democracy, the US will be asking uncomfortable questions. India must pay heed to what the Biden administration is telling New Delhi as much as listen to what is left unsaid.
Recently when External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met Donald Trump’s national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster during his visit to the US, he asked a rather uncomfortable question. Referring to the Hindutva politics and the undermining of Indian secularism, McMaster asked, “Are India’s friends right to be concerned about some of these recent trends?”
India saw itself as an X factor in ASEAN’s growing profile. That seems no more the case. ASEAN may not have cold-soldiered India, but it has seen India’s limitations particularly after New Delhi’s refusal to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The Indian government must take to heart the words of Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore : “I see India everywhere but find it nowhere.”
All that showers is not monsoon. How India performs as a democracy and handles its economy will remain its global calling card. Unlike the East Asian model whereby a country must first become economically fit for democracy, India insisted that it must become economically fit through democracy. India stands to gain nothing by becoming a clone of China. The world has seen the end of Pax Americana. Pax Sinica is also doomed to fail. India must assert itself as a benign power who will not fight other people’s wars and that it will maintain the big difference between expanding “strategic reach” and being “expeditionary.” Diplomacy is harder when you shout the loudest. India needs bigger ideas, strategies and traction, not careless grandstanding. Grandstanding has an expiry date.
The Taliban Finally Granted Permission to the Former President Karzai to leave Afghanistan
Based on the information, the former president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, was permitted to leave the country. At a time, when online meetings between Sohail Shaheen and American representatives are going on in connection with the start of intra-Afghan talks in Doha, The former president of the country, Hamid Karzai, was allowed to exit the country for the first time after August 15, 2021, when the Taliban took over. Nevertheless, it is not yet known when he will start his overseas trip, but his only purpose is to get preparation for the start of Intra-Afghan talks in Doha and to meet with American officials and foreign Afghan politicians. Since the end of October and the beginning of November, there are reports narrating that telephone calls are being made between President Hamid Karzai, and the US special representative for Afghanistan, Thomas West.
Besides, the persons are preparing for future negotiations, the re-established relationship between the former president Karzai and the CIA took place, when a CIA undercover intelligence officer met Karzai sometimes back, when he represented himself as an International media reporter. Sources suspect that the undercover agent interviewed the president under the auspices of a well-known German based Der Spiegel Magazine.
According to the information, former President Hamid Karzai will fly to Germany, while meeting with the CIA officials at the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Meantime, the former President Hamid Karzai will meet with some high-ranking officials of Germany and then have separate meetings with Western politicians and intelligence officers. Furthermore, after that, President Hamid Karzai will meet with the American ambassador to lay out the strategy for the potential negotiations.
Currently, there is a lot of confusion in the Mandigak palace in Kandahar province, where Taliban Spiritual leader and the decision making hub located and it is said that there have been serious discrepancies regarding allowing him to go abroad. However, Sheikh Haibatullah’s position is still neutral about his exit, while negotiating with his advisors to make a final decision in the upcoming days.
Nonetheless, there are no other specific differences regarding the permission. It is only the low-ranking Taliban fighters, who demand the precise judgement of the Taliban’s leader in this concern; In addition, some Taliban leaders are also unhappy about the whole process, especially the former members of the Quita Council of Taliban.
Now the ball is in the Taliban’s ground, whether they are ready to comply with the demands of the international community, by transferring the power to a transitional government or not, and to get along with the United States and get onboard the international community support. Definitely, it causes further splintering among Taliban groups and ISKP will use it as an opportunity to recruit Taliban fighters, while paving the way for regrouping in Khorasan Province the IS so-called territory.
The ISKP long before blamed Taliban for being ‘’ Rafeda’’, while simultaneously cooperating with the US, Russia, China and Iran for their political ambitions. To conclude, the Afghan people will not accomplish a lasting peace and sustainable economic developments, since the country will turn into a new battle filed among countries, which have stake in Afghanistan.
The Charisma and Chaos of Imran Khan
The chances of Imran Khan winning the elections of 2018 were quite murky. Despite his unparalleled fan base and populist rhetoric appeals to the young, and labor class of Pakistan, the legitimacy of his government is marred with allegations of fraud, rigging, and exploitation.
Some argue that his candidacy was a marketing tactic used by the ‘Establishment’ in Pakistan to form a government that is rather weak and dependent so that the ‘Establishment’ can continue its control over domestic security issues including the Nuclear escalation and relations with India.
But by and large, Khan won the elections.
Maybe it was the stardom attached to the name ‘Imran Khan’ and Pakistanis not wanting to confide in the same faces ruling them for centuries.
Maybe it was the mismanagement and violence that marred election day with unfathomable delays in result declaration in metropolis cities, coupled with post-poll manipulation.
Maybe it was the judicial-military nexus, that placed all the votes in the right places by not allowing voters to use their will during elections.
Maybe it was the 7 years-old narcotics case hearing moving forward against the stalwart of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Hanif Abbasi, giving him a life sentence in a rare late-night session of court, four days ahead of the elections that effectively knocked PML-N out of the race.
But the deal was done and can’t be undone and Imran Khan became the Prime Minister of Pakistan, for better or worse.
Khan the Celebrity
Pakistani nationals were victims of the financial crisis, unemployed people, those who lost their homes, and who were in debt; these people felt like the two parties ruling Pakistan for centuries had destroyed their country’s economy.
Imran Khan, with his humongous stardom as an athlete and philanthropist, seemed like the only ‘Messiah’ that could save them from all the atrocities they were facing.
Though, a significant number of votes were cast in favor of PML-N but not in the places that would have locked the win. So Imran Khan, persuaded the angry Pakistanis, the youth, and the labor class who were fed up with being handed over in trade deals with other nations.
Khan, a socialite that he was, knew how to connect with these agitated masses. Their grievances were clear as a day and so he gave them pretty promises wrapped up in his vibrant rallies filled with catchy songs. His huge social media presence along with the ‘Naya Pakistan’ slogan further amplified his staunch.
But there lies a challenge as to why Khan became the top highlight of this era. To many who were tired of politicians filling their own pockets, and amid the corruption charges on Nawaz Sharif, Khan’s celebrity status, his colorful personality, his promise of a corruption-free Pakistan, and his unconventional ‘Don’t Panic’ attitude – all of this made Khan seem like the only option who would deliver a better life and nation and, if not that, then at least would be the eradicator of what Pakistan had become.
Khan the Totalitarian
The other side of the coin sees Imran Khan as a narcissist, self-centered, and power-hungry mogul. After achieving his eternal craving of becoming the Prime Minister, he hardly showed any respect for the institutions of the country. More often than not he refused to attend the sessions of Parliament, with his excuse being the presence of members of the opposition party whom he referred to as ‘Crooks’ and ‘Chors’ (thieves).
This resulted in laws, instead of passing through an ordinary law-making process, being passed through presidential ordinances, with very limited power. We can clearly say that these laws were passed without debate, consensus, and thorough examination, negating the very foundation of constitutional requirements.
Additionally, Khan likes to fabricate stories in his speeches, a lot. In this vein, he brings down any democratic provision that proves him wrong, including targeting political parties on concocted charges of corruption; sustained attacks on the media; undermining law authorities, even the Supreme Court is not exempted from his allegations.
Through the abrogation of rule of law, irresponsible remarks about institutions, and disdain toward democracy, Khan himself created a fragile parliamentary system, which then collapsed on him. Not only this, but he has fractured the already dwindling democracy of Pakistan into a whole new level.
Khan the Leader
Khan came onto the political scene when Pakistan was facing a volatile situation both at home and abroad, coupled with the tensions going on with the Americas, and the rampant inflation, he was still able to take some impressive measures. His work related to health, relief programs, house loans, the environment, entrepreneurship, and the COVID response is admirable.
In addition, his billion tree tsunami and the building of several small dams initiated an environment-friendly drive in the climate change-affected country. But was he able to deliver on the ‘Promises’ made to the nation? Absolutely Not.
Perhaps he should have paid more attention to the cabinet as the abrupt changes in the system dwindled the confidence of investors in Pakistan’s economic machinery. His careless handling of some important economic programs including the CPEC decelerated the capital influx that caused the GDP to drop considerably.
To top it all off, Pakistan, in 2021 dropped from 124th place to 140th place according to Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), leaving an ugly mark on Khan’s corruption eradication promises on which he has led the foundation of his political career. Maybe he should have abided by the agenda of progression in order to gear up his performance instead of getting involved in blame and shame politics.
Khan the funambulist
The important reason why Khan has a cult following in Pakistan is his unfiltered and raw opinions about topics like the Americas, and Afghanistan which he keeps casting in his speeches. And, the audience, mostly the social media-induced young generation eats it all up like a sweet concoction, without paying heed to the implications it will bring to the foreign policy of Pakistan.
Khan’s decision to appoint Usman Buzdar, an underqualified and inexperienced newcomer to a vital position in the key city of Punjab pretty much sums up his political foresight. Perhaps, the most interesting yet debatable contrivance of his regime is his relentless attitude toward the United States, no previous Prime Minister of Pakistan was able to say ‘Absolutely No’ to the US as it had many allies in the domestic political platform of Pakistan. This stance of Khan was admired a lot in the country, with the phrase being trending in Pakistan. But the remarks came with ramifications for Pakistan on the international forum. This whole scenario further makes people question his political sanity.
Imran Khan possesses all the characteristics of a populist leader and in Populism: A Very Short Introduction, Cas Mudde says: “Populists are dividers, not uniters” they split society into “two homogenous and antagonistic groups: the pure people on the one end and the corrupt elite on the other.” True to this narration, Khan has divided the nation into two groups of ‘Evil and Good’ people, and the consequences are detrimental to the stability of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
To sum it all up, Imran Khan, despite his misgivings, his warts, his narcissism, and his unhinged political views, is still able to reach a class of people that have seen Pakistan erode for centuries and consider him the last hope for the country. But he certainly is not the best choice for democracy as his political understanding is ruined by his self-righteous approach. In this manner, he is no better than former US President Trump who incited his supporters to pass on the U.S. Capitol to forestall the peaceful transition of power after his electoral defeat. It is precise to say that Pakistan has fallen into a deep cauldron and only a Magic Wand can heal it at this point. Though Khan has not singularly created this cauldron, he most definitely is exploiting and feeding on it.
Chattisgarh Elections 2023: Future of United Progressive Alliance and BJP
Chattisgarh, the 9th largest state of India by area and 17th most populous state with population of 30 Million will go to votes in upcoming elections in 2023. Chattisgarh saw an electoral shift in 2018 when voters chose INC lead United Progressive Alliance over BJP which was into the power since 2003. The legislative assembly comprises of 90 constituencies and population demography favors the Hindu’s with 93.05%, Muslims are major minority with 2.02% and Christians make up 1.92% of the population of Chattisgarh. The major contenders in the elections are United Progressive Alliance, which came into power in 2018. The major parties in the Alliance are Indian National Congress (INC), Dravida Munnetra Kazghagam, Janta Dal (United), Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party. This alliance faces BJP as major gladiator of the Elections.
INC lead United Progressive Alliance Government
In 2018 elections, United Progressive Alliance defeated BJP in the state to form the government. Previously BJP enjoyed three successive tenures in power. The Alliance proved to be vital in defeating the ex-ruling party and Bhupesh Baghel of INC was sworn in as new CM of Chattisgarh. The newly elected government opted for the developmental model in the state with their activities ranging from sports to health and good governance. The CM gave the vision of ‘Employment Mission’ which aimed at providing 15 lac jobs to people of Chattisgarh. The government provided the masses with the vision of ‘trust, development and security’ in order to remain popular and hence their projects based upon wellness of the general public. The CM started ‘Khelbo-Jeetbo-Gadhbo Nova Chattisgarh’ scheme in order to enhance sports infrastructure and facilities for youth of Chattisgarh. The scheme covered major as well as local games. The government also launched ‘ Makhyamantri Haat Bazar Clinics’ scheme in order to provide and ensure health services in rural and remote areas of the state. This scheme received a lot of praises from the masses during pandemic period. Government also enhanced education sector by setting up more than 600 Hindi and English medium schools. CM launched ‘Swami Atmanand English Medium Education System’ in all districts of the state. The scheme aimed at setting up of the English medium colleges for the students. The government under CM Baghel, also faced severe opposition in form BJP. The BJP criticized government of corruption, farm loans and internal rift among government officials. The CM also survived ‘No Confidence Motion’ tabled by BJP in the legislative assembly in July 2022.
BJP and Caste votes
Caste permutation and combinations have always played a role of dominating factor in the state of Chattisgarh. The state is amalgamation of upper castes, schedule castes (SC), Schedule tribes (ST) and Other Backward Castes (OBCs). The Kurmi’s and Sahu’s dominate upper castes in the state. One third of the population is composed of Scheduled tribes (ST), while Schedule castes (SC) make up 12% of the population and Other Backward Castes (OBCs) are 41% of the population. Upper castes and OBCs have traditionally tilted in the favor of BJP. SC votes have been divided among BJP, INC and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). In 2013 however, BJP swept through 9 out of 10 constituencies of SC reserved seats. Dalit vote bank also has an influential role in elections. There exists around 12% of Dalit vote splitting between BJP and BSP. This vote bank influences 40 constituencies of the state. BJP is also counting upon Sahu’s votes in order to gain power back in upcoming Chattisgarh elections.
Chattisgarh as home ground of Hindutva
Chattisgarh has seen a violent shift when it comes to application of agenda of Hindutva. RSS and its political affiliate BJP have targeted Chattisgarh for Hindutva onslaught. The norms of Hindu identity have gone deep down into the roots of the society. ‘Ghar Wapsi’ scheme is gaining influence in Chandigarh. In March 2022, a ceremony was held and 1250 people returned to Hindu dharma. In states like Odisha, Chattisgarh and Jharkand more than 10,000 people have returned to Hindu dharma. BJP has developed a narrative of targeting Congress for miseries of Hindu’s all around India. Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) an affiliate of RSS has been provided with security umbrella of BJP and it has forced Churches in Chattisgarh to use name of ‘Acharya’ and ‘Up-Acharya’ instead of ‘Father’. VHP has also forced churches to display images and painting of Hindu goddess ‘Saraswati’ in churches. The organization has also forces churches to distribute ‘Prasad’ instead of sweets at the eve of Christmas, thereby attacking the root identities of Christianity in the state. Around the time when BJP formed the government in center in 2014, 5 villages in Bastar district of Chattisgarh were banned for non-Hindu practices. Hindu leaders in Chattisgarh are calling for killing of any individual who tries to convert Hindus into any other religion. The Equation between the minorities and Hindus started changing since 2003, when BJP was installed into power in Chattisgarh. The change has intensified now when BJP is also present in Center.
Bet on Youth’s vote
The youth vote bank in Chattisgarh can be the turning point in the upcoming elections. The major gladiators BJP and United Progressive Alliance are eyeing the vote share of youth in the state. The initiatives started by the CM Baghel, progressively targets the youth and their development. However, BJP accuses the current INC lead state government of unemployment among the youth. The tussle between the major contenders in the state is pivoted for Youth vote. The saffron party has also targeted youth with the identity confrontation within the framework of Hindutva. However, the INC lead coalition government is centered on the agenda of developmental and governance model for the youth rather than targeting and convincing youth on identity based vote bank. The youth from minority section of the population may opt for INC and United Progressive alliance for the power in state but saffron influenced youth and upper castes are likely to put their weight in BJP’s favor.
Chattisgarh elections 2023 will play a major role in determining the BJPs future in center as well. Chattisgarh has been the power bank for BJP since 2003 but shift in 2018 has taken BJP by shock and surprise. However, upcoming elections can also prove to be referendum of policies applied by BJP at national level. INC will also have to investigate its depth in masses as well. The future of alliance mostly depends upon the INC performance in the state elections. The General Elections can also be strategically targeted by INC in form of alliance and coalition seat shares in order to give tough time BJP which is by far thriving among the masses at national level.
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