Since 2011, the United Nations has made great efforts in Yemen, starting with sponsoring the peaceful transition of power after the popular youth revolution in Yemen and ending with its efforts to stop the war in Yemen after the Houthi coup against power and the military intervention of the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia on March 26, 2015, which it exposed a political, economic and military crisis that was and still is extremely complex. Though the UN has struggled for the restoration of peace and stability and had provided humanitarian works to control the disaster of war and defuse the negative impacts of war on society, till today it fails to end the war in Yemen.
With President Joe Biden coming to power, many changes have occurred in the US policy towards Yemen and the region and more international efforts to solve the Yemeni crisis. While the Trump administration worked to include the Houthis on the terrorist list days before it left power, the Biden administration on the other hand worked to rescind the decision in its first days in the White House. Joe Biden said that the war “has to end,”and announced three decisions related to America’s policy regarding the war in Yemen, namely “ending American support for all offensive military operations and related arms deals, supporting United Nations efforts to resolve the conflict, and appointing Tim Lenderking as a special envoy for Yemen”. All these moves came as a result of huge pressure exerted by human rights and humanitarian organizations to stop the civilian killing, and the intensification of the humanitarian situation in Yemen related to the war, as well as the transformation of the Yemen war, and the Saudi-American relations, into an arena of political polarization in Washington, both at the institutional level, between Congress and the presidency, and between parties.
As a result, the Houthis responded differently by escalating their attacks and expanding their influence operations towards the oil-rich Marib Governorate, in an attempt by the Houthis to control important areas and extend their influence to as many areas as possible to impose their presence and improve their negotiating position in any negotiations to end the conflict. The cancellation of the designation of the Houthis as a terrorist group came in the context of a new American approach to the Yemeni file, which the Biden administration said includes moving according to the path of providing humanitarian relief, working to stop the conflict through a negotiated settlement, and by supporting UN peace efforts.
Riyadh and a number of capitals in the region at the time witnessed an active American diplomatic movement, where the US special envoy to Yemen, Lenderking, and the US ambassador to Yemen, Christopher Henzel, met With Saudi, Yemeni and Omani officials, they also met with the UN envoy to Yemen, Martin Griffiths, in addition to what was said about his meeting with the head of the Houthi group’s negotiating delegation, Muhammad Abdul Salam in Muscat.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, announced an initiative on March 22, 2021, to end the Yemeni crisis and reach a comprehensive political solution, which includes a comprehensive cease-fire under the supervision of the United, opening of Sana’a International Airport, and the start of consultations between the Yemeni parties to reach a political solution to the Yemeni crisis. Though it was welcomed regionally and internationally and approved by the Yemeni government, the Houthis responded by rejecting it, and the chief Houthi negotiator, Muhammad Abdul Salam, tweeted, describing it as an “initiative directed at media consumption, neither serious nor new.”
During the last few months, Muscat witnessed intense movements in which the UN and US envoys to Yemen worked to transfer proposals between Muscat and Riyadh regularly, in an attempt to bring closer views on the Saudi initiative, which some see as an extension of the US and UN initiatives for a cease-fire and the resumption of political consultations. Despite all this diplomatic momentum, there is no progress in the negotiations in Muscat so far and in a perhaps last attempt by the UN envoy, who is supposed to leave his position as UN envoy to Yemen, after he was appointed as the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, during this week, he visited the Yemeni capital to meet with the Houthi leaders, after his efforts with the Houthi delegation in Muscat were hampered. During his visit to Sana’a, he called on the parties to the conflict to take advantage of the regional and international diplomatic momentum to end the war and ceasefire. “We have proposed several ways to bridge the gap between the disputants, and there is an extraordinary amount of diplomatic consensus to support these proposals,” he said before leaving the Yemeni capital.
The Houthis on the other hand, insisted not to link the humanitarian file to the political or military file. The Houthi leader considered that “the attempt to link the humanitarian duty as a legitimate and independent right and link it to other files of a military or political nature is an explicit confiscation of the right of the Yemeni people to their most basic human rights and an equation that cannot be accepted at all.” In which it indicates the rejection of the Saudi and UN initiative, which links the lifting of the ban on Sanaa airport and the entry of oil derivatives to the port of Hodeidah as part of a simultaneous solution package that includes a comprehensive cease-fire in all governorates.
Despite all that the United States in cooperation with the European powers and the UN envoy have done in working on the Yemeni file for nearly three months till now, and, there is no change or penetration to bring the parties to the dialogue table and stop the bloodshed, and all these moves without results for many local and international reasons.
Houthis believe that they still possess strength and can achieve more military gains on the ground and that their strength is increasing day by day, and their transformation from defense to attack, whether against the Yemeni government inside Yemen, such as the war raging on the outskirts of Marib, the last stronghold of the government in the north. Also, they can still threaten the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, whether with missile attacks or drones or by direct engagement and control of sites within the Kingdom’s borders, as happened recently. Therefore, they believe that concessions should be made by the government and the Kingdom, and they should not make any concessions. On the other side, the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia also see that the humanitarian side is linked to the military side and that lifting the siege on Sanaa airport and the port of Hodeida without agreeing on a ceasefire formula would be an added gain for the Houthis to enhance their power and capabilities.
Internationally , Despite the complexity of the internal scene, the international community bears responsibility as well, which was not explicit and clear in its movements between the parties to the conflict and did not specify the party obstructing any political settlement. Others believe that there is no real international will, specifically from the permanent members of the Security Council, which has all the powers, sanctions and decisive measures, but the intertwining and conflicting of their interests has made the issues and files of the Middle East and others a subject of conflict, and any strong and decisive decisions put forward by some are opposed by others. And many ink the issue of yemen to other files in the region such as the current Vienna agreement with iran.
to conclude, though the international efforts and unprecedented diplomatic momentum that we witnessed recently, especially with Biden’s accession to power and his appointment as a special envoy to Yemen, they could not to stop the bloodshed and bring the conflicting Yemeni parties to the negotiating table till now. The international efforts couldnot to find a breakthrough or any significant progress to solve the Yemeni crisis and they will not be able to achieve any, unless there is credibility from them to deal with the crisis and deter the forces obstructing the political settlement or there will be an actual change on the ground that obliges the parties to sit at the negotiating table.
Ukraine crisis could produce an unexpected winner: Iran
Iran potentially could emerge as an unintended winner in the escalating crisis over Ukraine. That is, if Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border and talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement fail.
An imposition of tough US and European sanctions in response to any Russian incursion in Ukraine could likely make Russia more inclined to ignore the fallout of violating US sanctions n its dealings with Iran.
By the same token, a failure of the talks between Iran and the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, France, Germany, and Britain to revive the accord that curbed the Islamic republic’s nuclear program would drive Iran closer to Russia and China in its effort to offset crippling US sanctions.
US and European officials have warned that time is running out on the possibility of reviving the agreement from which the United States under then-President Donald J. Trump withdrew in 2018.
The officials said Iran was weeks away from acquiring the know-how and capability to produce enough nuclear fuel for a bomb quickly. That, officials suggested, would mean that a new agreement would have to be negotiated, something Iran has rejected.
No doubt, that was in the back of the minds of Russian and Iranian leaders when they met last week during a visit to Moscow by Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi. It was the first meeting between the leaders of Russia and Iran in five years.
To be sure, the road to increased Russian trade, energy cooperation, and military sales would open with harsh newly imposed US sanctions against Russia even if restrictions on Iran would remain in place.
That does not mean that the road would be obstacle-free. Mr. Putin would still have to balance relations with Iran with Russia’s ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
If anything, Russia’s balancing act, like that of China, has become more complicated without the Ukraine and Vienna variables as Iranian-backed Houthis expand the seven-year-long Yemen war with drone and missile strikes against targets in the UAE.
The Houthis struck as the Russian, Chinese and Iranian navies started their third joint exercises since 2019 in the northern Indian Ocean. The two events were not related.
“The purpose of this drill is to strengthen security and its foundations in the region, and to expand multilateral cooperation between the three countries to jointly support world peace, maritime security and create a maritime community with a common future,” Iranian Rear Admiral Mostafa Tajoldini told state tv.
US dithering over its commitments to security in the Gulf has persuaded Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to hedge their bets and diversify the nature of their relations with major external powers.
However, a Russia and potentially a China that no longer are worried about the fallout of violating US sanctions against Iran could put Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on notice that the two US rivals may not be more reliable or committed to ensuring security in the Gulf. So far, neither Russia nor China have indicated an interest in stepping into US shoes.
This leaves Saudi Arabia and the UAE with few good choices if Russia feels that US sanctions are no longer an obstacle in its dealings with Iran.
Russia is believed to want the Vienna talks to succeed but at the same time has supported Iranian demands for guarantees that the United States would not walk away from a revived deal like it did in 2018.
Against the backdrop of talk about a proposed 20-year cooperation agreement between the two countries, Russia appears to want to negotiate a free trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union that groups Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, alongside Russia.
Iran has signed a similar 25-year cooperation agreement with China that largely remains a statement of intent at best rather than an action plan that is being implemented.
Like in the case of China, the draft agreement with Russia appears to have been an Iranian rather than a Russian initiative. It would demonstrate that Iran is less isolated than the United States would like it to be and that the impact of US sanctions can be softened.
“We have a document on bilateral strategic cooperation, which may determine our future relations for the next 20 years. At any rate, it can explain our prospects,” Mr. Raisi said as he went into his talks with Mr. Putin.
For now, Mr. Raisi’s discussions in Moscow appear to have produced more lofty prospects than concrete deals.
Media speculation that Russia would be willing to sell Iran up to US10 billion in arms, including Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 anti-missile defense systems, appear to have remained just that, speculation. Saudi Arabia and the UAE would view the sale to Iran of such weapons as particularly troublesome.
By the same token, Iranian officials, including Finance Minister Ehsan Khanduzi and Oil Minister Javad Owji, spoke of agreements signed during the Moscow visit that would revive a US$5 billion Russian credit line that has been in the pipeline for years and produce unspecified energy projects.
“It’s unclear if these are new projects or ones that have been previously discussed and even agreed to, such as the one Lukoil stopped working on in 2018 after the US pulled out… Lukoil was concerned about being targeted by US sanctions,” said international affairs scholar Mark N. Katz.
Theoretically, the dynamics of the Ukraine crisis and the prospects of failed Vienna talks could mean that a long-term Russian Iranian cooperation agreement could get legs quicker than its Chinese Iranian counterpart.
Negotiating with a Russia heavily sanctioned by the United States and Europe in an escalated crisis in Ukraine could level the playing field as both parties, rather than just Iran, would be hampered by Western punitive measures.
Tehran-based Iranian scholar and political analyst Sadegh Zibakalam suggested that it was time for the regime to retire the 43-year-old Iranian revolution’s slogan of “neither East nor West.” The slogan is commemorated in a plaque at the Foreign Ministry.
Asserting that Iran has long not adhered to the motto, Mr. Zibakalam suggested that the plaque be removed and stored in the basement of a hardline Tehran newspaper. “It has not been used for a long time and should be taken down,” he tweeted.
Unified Libya will come only via ballot box, ‘not the gun’-UNSC
Libya is at a “delicate and fragile juncture in its path to unity and stability”, the UN Political Affairs chief told the Security Council on Monday, urging the international community to remain united in supporting national elections postponed last month.
In welcoming positive developments across three different tracks of intra-Libyan dialogue, Rosemary A. DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, also recognized the challenges that must be overcome.
“So many Libyans have told us, the way towards a stable and united Libya is through the ballot box, not the gun”, she said. “We must stand with them”.
Growing polarization among political actors, and disputes over key aspects of the electoral process, led to the postponement of long anticipated elections on 24 December.
The High National Commission for Elections (HNEC) cited shortcomings in the legal framework along with political and security concerns. To address this, the House of Representatives has established a Roadmap Committee to chart a new political path that defines an elections timetable and process.
New Special Adviser
To date, she has undertaken wide-ranging consultations, including with members of the Government of National Unity (GNU), the High National Election Commission, the House of Representatives, and candidates for presidential and parliamentary elections.
Oil-rich Libya has descended into multiple crises since the overthrow of former rule Muammar Gadaffi in 2011, which in recent years saw the country divided between rival administrations – a UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in the capital Tripoli, and that of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar.
Ms. Williams has reiterated that the focus of the political process now, should remain on holding “free, fair, inclusive and credible national elections” in the shortest possible timeframe.
“In all her meetings, the Special Adviser highlighted the 2.8 million Libyans who have registered to vote”, said Ms. DiCarlo, adding that she also called on everyone to respect the will of the Libyan people and to adhere to the timeline agreed to in the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) roadmap, which was endorsed by the Security Council.
The UN political affairs chief said ongoing dialogue among political, security and economic actors from across the country was key.
“We have seen reports of consultations between the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the High State Council, as well as among presidential candidates from western and eastern Libya”, she said.
On the security track, there have been meetings among various armed groups, as well as the Chief of General Staff of the Western Military Forces under the GNU and the acting General Commander of the rival LNA, with the participation of military chiefs and heads of military departments from both sides.
Turning to the economy, further steps have been taken to reunify the Central Bank of Libya.
Moreover, renewed efforts continue to advance national reconciliation based on the principles of transitional justice.
While the ceasefire has continued to hold, “political uncertainty in the run up to the elections has negatively impacted the overall security situation”, the political chief informed the Council, including in Tripoli.
It has resulted in shifting alliances among armed groups affiliated with certain presidential candidates, she added.
Similarly, unfulfilled demands made to the GNU by the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) in western Libya resulted in the shutdown of oil production, causing the National Oil Corporation to declare in December, force majeure – a clause that removes liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes.
Following negotiations between the PFG and the GNU, Oil production was restored on 9 January.
To implement the ceasefire agreement, last month military representatives from opposing sides, called the 5+5 Libyan Joint Military Commission (JMC), discussed with Turkish and Russian authorities, an Action Plan to gradually withdrawal mercenaries and foreign fighters from the country.
At the same time, despite serious logistical and security challenges, the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) continued its work to establish a ceasefire monitoring hub in Sirte, pending the GNU’s approval on accommodation and office facilities.
Human rights concerns
“The human rights situation in Libya remains very worrying”, said Ms. DiCarlo, noting “documented incidents of elections-related violence and attacks based on political affiliation”, which she described as obstacles toward a conducive environment for free, fair, peaceful and credible elections.
“We are particularly concerned that women and men working to protect and promote women’s rights continued to be targeted by hate speech, defamation and incitement to violence”, she stated. “Some of the disturbing social media posts that posed a threat to the safety and security of these persons were removed after UNSMIL brought them to the attention of social media platforms”.
Meanwhile, arbitrary detention by State and non-State actors continued across the country, with many detainees subjected to serious rights abuses.
The situation of migrants and refugees is also highly concerning.
“Large numbers of migrants and refugees attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea and returned to Libya continue to be detained in inhumane and degrading conditions with restricted humanitarian assistance. Thousands are unaccounted for”, the UN official said.
Ms. DiCarlo pointed out that hundreds of foreign nationals were expelled from Libya’s eastern and southern borders without due process, with some “placed in extremely vulnerable situations across remote stretches of the Sahara Desert without sufficient food, water, safety and medical care”.
“The United Nations remains ready to work with Libyan authorities on a long-term national response to migration and refugee management in line with international law to include addressing human rights concerns”, she assured.
To ensure political progress, Elham Saudi, Co-founder and Director of Lawyers for Justice in Libya, said that all who commit abuses must be held accountable, including mercenaries.
She noted that without law, revenge would be the only winner.
Ms. Saudi also maintained the importance of an enabling environment for all rights advocates, especially women, and expressed hopes for a human-rights based approach in how Libya is governed, going forward.
Embarking on Libya’s Noble Foray Into the Future
On Saturday the 22nd of January, activists from across the civil society spectrum in Libya gathered over Zoom with one purpose in mind; publicly declaring their support for the 1951 Libyan Independence Constitution. Despite the political turmoil which has engulfed the country since the Arab Spring began in Tunisia in 2011, a strong civil society movement which supports a return to our historical constitution, has always existed in Libya. These supporters, who represent a significant number of Libyans from across the country, see the restoration of the 1951 constitution as the only way to shape their future.
Libya has been through an immeasurable amount of internationally led initiatives, all aimed at providing Libya with long term “solutions”. Only over the course of the past decade, one can count the UN-brokered Skhirat agreement in December of 2015, the 2017 Paris meeting, the 2018 Palermo conference alongside Mohammed bin Zayed’s Abu Dhabi gathering in February 2019. Followed by Putin and Erdogan’s joint call for a ceasefire in 2020, alongside the first (2020) and second (2021) Berlin conferences alongside UN-sponsored talks in Geneva, each and every one of these efforts amounted to nothing.
The main reason behind these, perhaps well-intentioned but failed attempts, was the simple fact that none of these efforts had any grounding in Libyan history or the support of the Libyan people. Reaching consensus in a society as heavily divided as that of Libya, is a significant challenge. However, placing our faith in our history will undoubtedly provide us with a solution that is closer to the hearts of citizens of our nation and which has the potential to assist in competing factions finally putting their differences aside.
This was the catalyst of Saturday’s meeting which sought to once and for all provide an authentically Libyan solution to the issues which have been plaguing the country for over a decade. The first of these is the preservation of our territorial integrity which has for too long been challenged by foreign actors. It is high time that a long term resolution for our country’s ills is found that ensures the exclusion of foreign elements from shaping the future of our great land.
The second issue the gathering sought to underscore was the need to build an inclusive future for all members of Libyan society. For far too long, our country has excluded citizens of certain political persuasions, cultural backgrounds or those who hold different opinions. Every Libyan deserves equal opportunities, protection of basic rights alongside access to justice. This has been impossible in a country which for so long has lacked a cohesive national identity.
These two issues are indeed intertwined with the third issue which the conference sought to highlight, namely, our demand to return to constitutional legitimacy under the leadership of our Crown Prince Mohammed El Hasan el Rida el Senussi. As the sole heir to the throne of King Idris, passed down through the late Crown Prince Hassan, Prince Mohammad is the leader our country has yearned for.
With leadership claims grounded in historical fact that cannot be upended by foreign or domestic elements, from an ideological standpoint, Prince Mohammad serves as an anchor, offsetting challenges to stability posed by foreign elements. This is strengthened by his position as the scion of a family which has been in Libya for centuries and founded the Senoussia movement, briniging with it Islam, to the country. Furthermore, historical memories of the reign of King Idris, which saw religious tolerance, gender equality and security for its citizens, reflects the future which Libyan’s would like to see for themselves today.
Bringing together journalists, academics, human rights defenders and political activists, Saturday’s gathering was indeed revolutionary. It would have been unimaginable that such a gathering would even have taken place a mere decade ago. Representing not only themselves, but a wide range of segments of Libyan society, those attending over Zoom broadcasted a powerful message; a rejection of foreign attempts top shape the future of the country alongside a return to historical, constitutional, legitimacy under the leadership of the only man who can help Libya exit the current quagmire and begin its noble foray into the future.
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