China’s exports surged 32.3 per cent over a year in April as global consumer demand strengthened. Exports reached USD 263.9 billion, riding on a stupendous 60.6 per cent rise in the first two months of 2021. Over the last year, China had become part of the largest trade bloc in history covering 30% of world GDP, by signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) along with 14 other Asia-Pacific countries and finalised a major trade deal with Iran. Despite the trade war and the pandemic, China is flexing its economic muscle yet again.
Immediately after the Covid-19 outbreak, China faced global isolation and was squarely blamed for the coverup of the initial spread. The supply shocks which started in February 2020, have led many global firms and nations to rethink their overdependence on China. Global supply chain networks were expected to diversify themselves and move out of China, decelerating Chinese manufacturing. South-East Asian nations and India were touted as viable alternatives. Although a few companies have moved out, the prominence of China as the global manufacturing hub stays intact and a major reorganization in the global supply chains as the world comes out of the pandemic seems unlikely.
Trade war and the pandemic
Talks on the diversification of supply chains had started much before the pandemic. The US-China trade war which kicked off in 2018, led the investors to contemplate reducing their dependency on China. The high trade barriers imposed by both the countries on each other affected economies around the world and exposed the vulnerabilities of investments concentrated in China. Many companies have already adopted the “China plus one” manufacturing hub strategy to hedge their risk. In 2019, Taiwan passed a law to encourage its firms to build a “non-red supply chain” outside of China and offered cheap finance, tax breaks, and simpler administration to invest in its territory. A study by Japanese investment bank Nomura found that 56 companies had shifted their bases out of China from April 2018 to August 2019.
The onset of the pandemic had further intensified the discourse. In April 2020, Japan had earmarked USD 2.2 billion to fund its firms to move out of China. This policy shift came on the backdrop of Chinese imports to Japan dipping by half in February 2020 due to the pandemic, putting Japanese manufacturers in dire need of components. Despite these challenges, China still holds its ground, because global supply networks tend to play by the rules of the market rather than bowing to geopolitical compulsions.
How China holds its steam
Global investors can hardly ignore the fast-growing Chinese domestic market and its vast consumer base. Moreover, shifting companies across boundaries when businesses are suffering from record-low cash flows is highly unlikely. With governments already bailing out companies by raising billions of dollars, it would be unwise to raise further funds for supply chain readjustments.
The overseas trade infrastructure in China is fairly matured and time-tested. Unlike China, India and the South-East Asian nations (except for Singapore) lack efficient and high-capacity ports that can handle large container ships and direct marine liner services connecting major markets. This means the trade will require transhipments through Singapore or Hong Kong which consumes more time and money. These constraints will affect the economic feasibility of investments outside of China, at least in the near future.
There are certain political and social advantages that China alone can offer which lures investors. The political climate is extremely favourable with no periodic governmental transitions. The one-party rule ensures that companies are provided with a relatively stable and investor-friendly policy framework. The Chinese establishment is well-positioned to give continuous thrust and reliable infrastructure to the manufacturers. An abundant pool of skilled workers along with the availability of matured and deep supply networks further provides China with a much greater comparative advantage.
What future holds
China has acquired the position of global manufacturing hub only after focussed and rigorous work spanning over 30 years. It is expected to see a gradual decline in its low-end production activities in the future, which might shift to other developing nations. In high-end areas, it is still expanding its export market share. China has now put its strategic focus on sectors like energy, mining, and infrastructure development, through its ambitious Belt and Road initiative (BRI), designed to absorb its excessive manufacturing potential.
The “Economic Prosperity Network” mooted during the Trump presidency to move supply chains out of China has lost steam due to a lack of effective financial incentives. The present administration, led by President Biden, has already initiated bilateral trade talks with China. The success of the recently launched Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI) by India, Japan and Australia to reduce their reliance on China is yet to be seen.
Trade deals like RCEP had cemented China’s position as a global economic superpower. The aversion of the Trump administration to multilateralism had greatly diminished the US prospects and provided ample space for China to push its global ambitions. As the pandemic still ravages various parts of the globe, the Chinese economy is displaying its resilience. The global supply chains, at least for the time being, seems stable and grounded well in favour of China.
The suffocating economy of Iran
Iran’s economy is on a roller coaster. The past year saw a dramatic rise in inflation rates and a historic fall in the value of the rial. The protests which followed the death of a 22-yar old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini have magnified the creaks in the country’s economy.
On January 22, The Iranian rial was selling at an exchange rate of 450,000 against the greenback, an all-time low. The rial has lost 29% of its value since the time the protest started. Iran’s statistical agency reported an inflation rate of 48.5% in December 2022, the highest level since 1995. November data recorded food inflation of above 70% in 12 provinces of the country.
Reports from the country suggest that more than half of the population is living below the poverty line due to spiraling prices. As per the latest forecast, the World Bank predicts a GDP growth of 2.9% for Iran in 2022 which will slow down to 2.2% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024 owing to “slower growth in key trading partners and new export competition from discounted Russian oil”. However, the government’s response to the bleak economic indicators so far had been subtle and unperturbed.
The unilateral withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal in 2018 and the sanctions that followed on oil exports and international banking has put heavy stress on the country’s economy.
The country’s government debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 45% in 2020. According to World Bank, Iran’s unemployment rate reached 12.2% in 2020 before narrowly dipping to 11.5% in 2021. Iranian daily Etemad had reported that at least 23 workers have committed suicide since March 2022 in the country due to reasons like dismissal, punishment, or threats.
The government lifted import subsidies for essential goods in April 2022, to ease the pressure off the strained government budget, which subsequently triggered rapid spikes in food prices during May-June.
The Federal Reserve in November tightened its control over Iraqi commercial banks to restrict the illegal siphoning of dollars to Iran and other Middle-East countries. The new regulations blocked a huge chunk of daily dollar wire transfers to Iran. The Taliban takeover in 2021 had previously blocked access to hard currency to Iran via the Afghan route.
Amid the uprising, European Parliament approved a resolution designating the Iranian militia, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a ‘terrorist’ organization. It also called for sanctions on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raisi, and others. The US and UK too imposed fresh sanctions on Iran.
Iran retaliated on January 25th by imposing sanctions on 34 British and European individuals and entities.
Former Central Bank of Iran governor Ali Salehabai had been sacked in December due to failure to control the rapid depreciation of the rial. According to analysts in the region, the Central Bank is injecting dollars into the market to thwart further depreciation.
In late January, the Central Bank decided to raise the maximum amount of currency that can be sold to individuals annually from 2000 euros to 5000 euros, to instill confidence and ward off fears about the availability of currency. The cap was initially introduced to stabilize the currency after the US pull-out of the nuclear deal in 2018.
Iran has not resorted to austerity to tide over the crisis. Instead, President Ebrahim Raisi presented a noticeably enlarged national budget in January to boost growth. Valuing 21,640 trillion rials, the budget is 40% larger than the previous one. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was allocated $3 billion registering a 28% rise over the last year, in a taunting message to the west.
Recently, Iran introduced gold coin certificates in the stock market to raise cash and mitigate inflation. The government is desperate to raise cash as the government budget is posting a deficit of $9.75 billion. Critics point out unrealistic revenue estimates riding on oil sales and over-optimistic tax collection figures.
To raise revenue, Iran has increased its oil exports to China to more than 1.2 million barrels per day over the past three months. The sanctions have in effect caused Iran to warm up to western rivals like China and Russia. Iran and Russia are reportedly in talks over the introduction of a stablecoin, backed by gold, to bypass western sanctions in cross-border transactions.
Iran’s response to the looming economic crisis was devoid of any extreme desperation. The government took all necessary steps to keep the dread within bounds. The present security situation in the country could go haywire if the economy collapses.
It remains to be seen how fast the government can ensure reliable alternate arrangements in place to sustain the economy. If not immediately, chances are high that the country may drift to panic mode.
Prospects of Vietnam’s Economic Growth in 2023
The ongoing war in Ukraine and increasing commodity prices across the world have impacted the developing countries. Countries in Asia which were recovering from the COVID-19 impact on their economies have to rework their recovery process by looking for alternate supply chains and reducing their financial responsibilities towards social sector through budgetary management. Among the developing economies in Asia , Vietnam showed an economic growth of nearly 3 per cent even when many of the countries were witnessing recession and reduced production because of adverse impact of COVID-19 .The stimulus packages that the governments across the world have to give to the manufacturing sector to accelerate production and meet the demands of the people. In a report released by World Bank in August last year it was stated that the Vietnamese economy is likely to grow by nearly 7.2 per cent in 2023 and it is going to sustain itself in 2024 with a likely growth projection of 6.7 per cent. These are encouraging signs .Few of the sectors which might be accelerating the growth process would be in the field of footwear and electronics. Vietnam itself has been undertaking strong anti corruption measures so as to facilitate stronger economic fundamentals and recovery from the COVID-19 impact.
The economic growth of Vietnam has been accelerating and the agricultural sector has been productive in ensuring food security for Vietnamese citizens. As per one of the estimates this sector contributed more than 14 per cent in national gross domestic product and has engaged more than 35 per cent of youth in the year 2020. This sector also earned valuable foreign exchange of more than U.S. dollar 48 billion. One of the interesting achievements of Vietnam has been increasing life expectancy, and its universal health coverage which covers more than 87 per cent of the population.
As per the plan of action which has been envisaged for Vietnamese economy by its leadership it aspires to become a high income country by the year 2045. It is expected that with the sound economic fundamentals and more than 5.5 annual average per capita growth for the next 2 and a half decades it can reach that milestone. Vietnamese population is also young and is adapting itself for digital economy and building core fundamentals for its membership in different regional economic organisations such as RCEP and CPTPP.The bilateral free trade agreement with EU is also facilitating its growth in several sectors.
There have been significant structural improvements ushered through policy documents in terms of improving financial architecture, accepting global norms related to climate and environment, comprehensive security for population against poverty , and extensive investment in infrastructure development both in rural and urban areas.
In one of the articles written in Bloomberg it has acknowledged that Vietnam is now is one of the Asia’s fastest growing economies which has grown to 8.02% last year and it even surpassed government assessment of 6 to 6.5 per cent growth. The article also acknowledged the fact that manufacturing has been growing to near 10 per cent mark in comparison to last year and there is strong development in the services sector as well. Among the economies Vietnam’s inward foreign direct investment has also been doing quite well and it has received nearly US $27.72 billion last year .Asian Development Bank has forecasted that Vietnam is going to grow at the rate of 6.3% in the year 2023. Also the unemployment rate has reduced and with inflation clearly under 5 per cent , showcases that the long term decisions which we have taken with the initiation of Doi Moi(economic liberalisation process ) in 1986 has been bearing fruits.
In terms of sectoral assessment, the real estate as well as construction sector ,the growth was about 7.78 per cent last year and the services sector growth was closer to 10 per cent. There have been increase in exports last year as well and an increase of 10.6% was noticed. One of the core arguments which have been given with regard to Vietnam’s impressive growth has been related to trade liberalization, increased deregulation and improvement in the ease of doing business, investment in human resources and stable government were seen as critical attributes for this impressive growth in Vietnamese economy.
Major companies in footwear, electronics, and mobile production have invested in Vietnamese economy and few of the companies have shifted base from China to Vietnam. Improved congenial economic environment has been appreciated by companies such as Adidas, Nike and Samsung to list few.
Owing to the development of new kind of digital technologies and better consumer awareness Vietnam is preparing itself for a major impetus in the E- commerce sector and therefore has been making extensive changes in digital based economy and more stress on science and technology development. Vietnam has acknowledged the fact that with the changes in sectoral composition of the economy, it is pertinent to develop necessary skill power and human resources which can seamlessly integrate Vietnam into global value chains and also help the services sector in exploring new markets.
The Crippled Economy
Lack of money is the root of all evils. Facts do not seize to exist because they’re ignored.
Lack of money is what Pakistan is experiencing and dealing with every now and then for the major part, since it came into existence either due to incompetence of our political leaders, their corruption, fighting wars of someone else or due to lack of long-term vision. Pakistan is currently in the middle of a turmoil trying to recover from devastating floods of 2022, facing the after effects of the withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan in the form of resurgence of terrorism, dealing with the political chaos created by the politicians who claim to be leaders of the state. Another yet most important, severe and devastating challenge that Pakistan is facing is its economic downfall. In one sense the lack of money is the root cause of all the problems mentioned above except the political chaos.
The economy of Pakistan, like a battle-hardened warrior has built resilience battling several challenges over the course of seventy years and is trained to survive but the recent political turmoil and the difficulty caused by nature (Floods), the burden of debts repayment, the threat of resurgence of terrorism and international indicators pointing towards an economic recession in 2023 has almost crushed the backbone of Pakistan’s economy.
World bank has recently released its latest report forecasting Pakistan’s Gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at only 1.7% for the fiscal year (FY) 2023 that is less than the half of what it predicted to during last June (4%). It has also predicted a near to recession economic situation of the world economy characterized with high inflation, increasing interest rates and the circumstances caused by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
Pakistan must reportedly payback 73$ Billion in the next three years till the end of FY2025 and central bank of the country also known as State Bank of Pakistan currently has Foreign exchange reserves of about only 5.6$ billion. This debt repayment is the key challenge for Pakistan’s economic survival and other challenges such as ever-increasing inflation, high interest rate, the growing unemployment, the decrease in imports are all byproducts of the main challenge. The threat of a possible default is becoming evident and is looming over fiscal horizon.
Monsoon on Steroids, a phenomenon directly linked with climate change played havoc with Pakistan. These floods added a profound risk to the country’s economic outlook. The country lost infrastructure worth of billions of dollars and floods effected 33$ million people and 1700 people lost their lives. According to Ministry of Planning and development of Pakistan, Pakistan has faed the loses of more than an estimation of 10$ billion. The catastrophe of floods also played with agroeconomics as crops were destroyed causing destruction of agriculture sector which makes up to 24% of country’s GDP. A comprehensive recovery policy is needed and with the helped promised by international community at Geneva, government has passed one hurdle but to make the sustainable recovery abundance of resources, capacity and transparency is needed.
The policy uncertainty has been a major cause in creating a mistrust among investors and has almost ceased foreign direct investment in Pakistan. This policy uncertainty is due to lack of will of national leaders to take tough decisions. For Example, former prime minister of Pakistan rolled out of International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) program fearing his ousting and to gain public support he reduced prices of commodities such as Petrol & Gas and took country almost on the verge of default.
The policy uncertainty is caused by Political uncertainty which in turn lead towards economic uncertainty. Economic stability can only be achieved by political stability and there’s no other way around. Political stability can be achieved through free and fair elections and elimination of the role of establishment in political process of Pakistan. And if a government takes long-term policy goals into account while formulating a policy rather than short-term goals to gain public support and trying to keep hold on the reins of Government. The selfish politicians have to play selfless and put Pakistan’s benefit before their own benefit to get Pakistan out of this political and economic turmoil.
The only solution in sight for Pakistan is to carry on with the 6$ billion IMF program and to try for rescheduling of depts repayment as it owes more than 70$ billion to be paid by the end of 2025 that is currently not possible. Another step from international community can also help Pakistan that is if a country makes an investment of 10-20$ billion directly rather than in the form of loans as happened in CPEC. Moreover, help from rich friendly Muslim countries can also provide an array of hope for Pakistan.
But these steps won’t address the clear underlying malaise of the economy and the fact that something fundamentally will need to change, in terms of how much the economy produces versus how much it spends, to avoid default down the road. But none of Pakistan’s political parties seem to have the political will or ability to bring about such change. Priorities needs to be shifted from personal interest of political elite to national interest. They must be ready to sacrifice their political image and interest for the greater good and to save the country from default down the road.
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