Optimistic on Iran’s Nuclear Deal

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday a breakthrough in talks in Vienna to revive a nuclear deal before he leaves office in August requires a “will” beyond his power. President Rouhani is Iran’s prominent architect of the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, which was torpedoed by former US President Donald Trump in 2018.

The nuclear deal was a win-win agreement with Iran and the US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia. Where economic sanctions were relaxed for Iran, and in return, Iran has to guarantee not to exceed the nuclear capabilities beyond permissible limits.

Iran was following the agreement religiously, and the whole world was satisfied, except Israel. All other parties, including the UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia, were very much happy and satisfied. IAEA was also pleased and has not found any violation from the Iranian side. But Israeli Prime minister gave a PowerPoint presentation to President Donald Trump and convinced him to withdraw from the deal.

President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018; the move was not welcomed by either signatory to this deal. Iran lodged a protest but was overruled by the US. Withdrawal from the nuclear agreement has created tension between the US and Iran, which resulted in uncertainty and instability in the whole region; as a result, the oil prices shot up.

Europe, Japan, and China was dependent on oil import from the Middle-East and were victimized. However, none of these nations were ready to offend the US.

The recent negotiations in Vienna were positive steps in the right direction. There exists a strong will from all concerned quarters for reaching or reviving the same deal. Even President Joe Bidden has also shown his consent too. The little nitty-gritty can be discussed and overcome. As long as there is a will, there is a way.

But the final decision regarding the ongoing Vienna negotiations rests with the Islamic republic’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“Our main issues with the United States in these negotiations have been resolved, and there are only a few minor issues left, on which we will negotiate and produce results,” Rouhani said at a televised cabinet meeting. “If there is the will that this is done in the current administration, then this administration has finished the work,” he added.

Iranians vote on June 18 for a new president, with Rouhani having served the maximum two consecutive terms allowed under the constitution. He will hand over power in August. Negotiations have been underway since April in the Austrian capital between Iran and the remaining members of the accord, Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia. It seems that the deal might be reached before the elections under the current Government.

Washington is participating indirectly. Trump’s successor, US President Joe Biden, has signaled his readiness to revive the nuclear deal.

For this to happen, the US would need to return to the accord and lift the sanctions reinstated by Trump, while Tehran would have to re-commit to full compliance with nuclear obligations it progressively withdrew from since 2019 in retaliation.

Sanctions reimposed by Trump deprived Iran of the economic benefits the deal had promised, primarily by blocking its vital oil export lifeline and access to its funds abroad, sparking a financial crisis.

Meanwhile, Iran’s top negotiator says there are still sticking points in Vienna talks on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal between the Islamic Republic and world powers, but all parties agree that the issues of dispute are not irresolvable and could be worked out.

Speaking ahead of the latest round of talks between the remaining parties to the deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Wednesday, Abbas Araqchi said, “disagreements have reached a point, where all [participants] believe that it is not that they cannot be solved.”

Araqchi, who is Iranian deputy foreign minister for political affairs, said participants at the Vienna talks are expected to reach a new conclusion on the negotiations that have taken place so far, adding that the delegations have reached the conclusion that they need to return to their respective capitals for “further consultations and further decision-making on issues of dispute.”

The nuclear deal will have a positive impact on the whole region as well as on the oil prices too. The instability and uncertainty may reach an end. We are optimistic for an early deal, satisfying all relevant quarters. It is hoped that Israel may not oppose it again this time.

Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.