There was a time when France & Germany were used to clash with each other in Europe. Looking back at history, we see that these two countries considered each other as opponents. There was fierce competition between France & Germany, with significant rivalry in science, technology, arts & culture. Especially from the Franco-German War in 1870 until the end of WWII, endless rivalries & clashes were used to occur between them.
However, this fierce rivalry between France & Germany is now a matter of the past. After the end of WWII, ice began to melt between Germany & France, culminating in the Elysee Treaty in 1963. The treaty signed between former French President Charles de Gaulle & former German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer in 1963 gave a new shape to European politics. Since then, a common culture between France & Germany has emerged. This mutual coexistence of France & Germany is an extraordinary example in Europe. The leadership of the two nations in establishing the EU was impressive. Even France and Germany’s closely cooperated roles during the Cold War were unforgettable. Thus, for the last 6 decades, France & Germany have been successfully leading the EU & NATO. As a result, France and Germany have the most influence in Europe.
The political pattern of these two countries on the Maginot Line is such that what happens in France happens in Germany, what happens in Germany happens in France. They have been bound by common political relations for the last 6 decades.
We need to know these facts so that we can understand the forthcoming political situation in France and Germany. Because national elections are going to be held in Germany this year & in France next year, which are very crucial for Europe. The future of Europe depends on the elections of these two countries. Moreover, the political situation in the trans-Atlantic region also depend heavily on these two general elections.
Nonetheless, analysts deem these two elections will be very challenging for European politics. Because ultra-rightist, populist & racist politicians are arising in France and Germany. Along with anti-Semitic attacks & xenophobia, neo-Nazis are also appearing. Critics observe these incidents as signs of a major political shift in Europe.
If we look at Germany, we can see that Angela Merkel has been in power for the last 16 years. This is a rare instance in Western democracy where a leader has been in power for 16 years. During her tenure, she has been a successful leader not only in Germany but also in entire Europe. Especially in the EU, she has been leading alone & Europe has seen the outcomes also. Merkel’s accomplishments are almost entirely due to the EU’s coexistence with the USA.
But Merkel’s popularity has waned over the past few years. According to international relations analysts, Merkel’s liberal immigration policy is the main reason. This policy has been instrumental in the surge of Germany’s far-right & populist leaders. Analysts attribute Merkel’s diminishing popularity to these liberal policies.
If we look back a few years, we see that 2015 was an unstable year for entire Europe. Millions of Syrians & Iraqi refugees fled to Europe that year to escape IS terrorist attacks. At the time, Germany was the only country to accommodate the largest number of refugees & also distributed refugees to other EU countries.
Merkel’s liberal policy was embraced by the Germans at first but later became hostile to refugees. In this way, the populists emerged by exploiting anti-refugee hatred among the Germans. The far-right party Alternative Fur Deutschland (AFD) existed in Germany utilising the anti-refugee & anti-immigration movement. Later, they deployed Xenophobia, anti-Muslim & racist agenda that assisted them to increase popularity overnight. Besides, neo-Nazis are playing a supportive role to these right-wing populist leaders.
Although Nazism had been dismantled, it’s rearing its ugly head again in Germany. Like Nazism, neo-Nazism is again launching anti-Semitic & racist attacks on Jewish, Muslim & African immigrants. Even a neo-Nazi extremist assassinated a liberal German politician in 2019. Moreover, far-right politicians such as Gauland, Meuthen & Frauke Petry are advocating neo-Nazis for their political gain. Thus, right-wing populists could lead to a political crisis in Germany. They’ve even cut a good figure in recent elections. As a result, it’ll be challenging for CDU & CSU alliances in the upcoming national election.
However, I’ve already mentioned that what happens in Germany happens in France as well. The current political situation in France is no different than in Germany.
In France, too, far-right politicians like Germany have emerged. Still, Marine Le Pen’s ‘National Rally’ is playing a major role in propagating the far-right ideology. Le Pen entered mainstream politics in 2015, a year when Europe was in turmoil, as I mentioned earlier.
We know in 2015, both al-Qaeda & IS terrorists carried out horrific terrorist attacks in France & the terrorists were all North African immigrants. Too, the attacks that have been organised in France in the last few years have involved immigrants. Besides, when Syrian refugees began arriving in Europe in the same year, France sheltered a large number of people.
These incidents in 2015 assisted Le Pen to have political advantages. Since, she’s been dissipating xenophobia, anti-Islamic, racist & populist ideas among French people. Like Germany’s AFD Party, she’s a staunch opponent of European unity. She’s even formulating an anti-EU agenda for the 2022 election, like the 2017 election. She includes a ‘Frexit’ referendum like Brexit & adopting the franc as the currency instead of the euro. This is how she’s deploying Euroscepticism in France that’s an ‘alarm bell’ for the EU.
On the other hand, like Merkel, French President Macron’s popularity has plummeted. Although he’s made ultra-secularism a political tool, he’s not gaining much ground. Also, he’s being criticised for his failed role in preventing the Covid-19 outbreak. At the same time, anti-Semitic attacks & racial hatred are on the high. And Marine Le Pen is taking advantage of all these. Even in a recent survey, Le Pen is a bit ahead of Macron.
This is how far-right populist leaders in France & Germany are influencing Europe. As a result, there’s a possibility of a huge upheaval in European politics.
In France & Germany, right-wing populists have yet to come to power. But if AFD or National Rally holds power, it’ll be a great hardship for the EU. Because in other parts of Europe, like Germany and France, right-wingers are impacting the political arena. For example, we can mention Hungary, Austria, Poland, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway here. Xenophobia, racial violence, anti-Muslim & anti-Semitic hatred have also increased in recent years. And somehow, right-wing populists are involved.
Additionally, in these countries, public opinion has been formed against the EU in recent times. Even the verdict of the British people in favour of Brexit was a huge triumph of right-wing populists. This is exactly how right-wing populists in other parts of Europe want to take advantages like the Brexit issue.
So moderates & liberals in Germany and France have a big role to play in preventing the EU from collapsing. For that, anti-EU parties such as AFD & National Rally in Germany and France must be deterred. Because if right-wing populists hold power in these two countries, they’ll vehemently oppose European unity, which will make the future of the EU uncertain. Moreover, the Franco-German leadership suffered a major blow on the Brexit issue, which created a mistrust of the EU among Europeans.
Furthermore, political upheavals in Germany and France could affect not only the European region but also the entire trans-Atlantic region. Because like Trump, European right-wing populists believe in conservatism & extremist patriotism, which conflicts with the progressive Biden administration’s ideology. Europe’s right-wing leaders don’t like Biden so much that’s why. So a political alteration in Germany and France would have a big impact on trans-Atlantic relations.
Finally, we can conclude with a famous quote from Abraham Lincoln. He remarked, “Democracy is a government of the people, by the people & for the people”. So the future of Europe depends on the votes of German and French people. They’ll decide the fate of France & Germany as well as the fate of the EU.
