Authors: Zhao Qingtong & Xu Xiaojing*
Recently, India faces a second outbreak of the pandemic that could also have threaten China in the future. Beijing vows to provide necessary help, but New Delhi does not appreciate it. From the realistic and moral point of view, Beijing’s goodwill is reasonable. The Modi administration needs to throw aside political prejudices, focusing on overcome the domestic epidemic.
Although Modi has already announced the success of combating pandemic inside India, the recent situation is no longer optimistic, and the challenge is unprecedented. According to the latest report from the Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on 30th April, 386,452 new cases were confirmed in a single day, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 18,762,976. What’s worse, according to Sumia Swamina, the chief scientist of WHO, because of insufficient detection capability, the actual number of people infected in India may be 20 to 30 times higher than the official number. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of WHO, said on Monday that the COVID-19 situation in India was beyond heartbreaking. Considering the dire state of India, countries such as Japan and Belgium has published special rules on the entry of people from India.
The situation is really serious, and it is difficult to control the epidemic in India in a short term. India, as a big vaccine producing country, has vaccinated more than 150 million people, however, the sheer size of its population and the cross-mutation of the virus weaken the effect of vaccination as a tool to curb the epidemic. Due to the import restrictions of medical raw materials, it is hard for India to maintain a high production capacity of vaccine, which makes it more difficult to retard the spread of the epidemic. At the same time, the domestic traditional religious festival (Kumbh Mela) and election activities in West Bengal triggered a large-scale social interaction, and these intensive contact undoubtedly would speed up the spread of the virus among people. There came a certain level of anti-epidemic fatigue in India, both the government and the public have shown de facto contempt for the virus.
It appears that the Modi administration is determined to adopt the herd immunity policy to counter the COVID-19, which is similar to that of some western countries. However, the reality is that India does not have the governance capacity as a modern country like these countries, and this is why the second epidemic outbreaks in India. The passive epidemic prevention policy has led to the breakdown of India’s medical system, and the virus strain has mutated uncontrollably, making more than 200,000 people lose their lives. The actual number may be far more than that. According to Indian official government estimates, the epidemic will peak in mid-May. But it could be worse than expected.
The spread of the epidemic will undoubtedly affect the functioning of India’s social and economic systems for a long time, which is not good news for the developing India. The reality is that India can not develop an effective anti-epidemic system on its own, and it does not have enough medical and social resources to overcome the virus in a short time. Meanwhile, India’s traditional allies, such as the United States and Britain, have their hands full, and can not support Modi administration, which is also a heavy blow for Indian authority and people. If the situation remains , India will quickly become a black hole of virus, and has the potential to become a Petri dish of COVID-19. It is undoubtedly not conducive to the global victory in the fighting against the epidemic.
India’s epidemic will also pose a potential threat to China. Due to the existence of natural barrier, the Himalayas, the Indian epidemic will not have a great impact on China in a short term. However, in the long run, what we cannot ignore is that the epidemic is not an unilateral problem, which will produce a chain reaction on China and other countries. First, the potential refugee problem. Sino-Inida border (about 1,700km) is long, and there are many neighboring countries which have limited epidemic prevention capacity. Therefore, once the Indian epidemic spreads, the refugee problem will undoubtedly threaten China. Previously, infected people from Myanmar affected Ruili city, Yunnan Province, which is an bad example. Second, the possibility of vaccine failure. The COVID-19 virus mutated in India, resulting in more than 200 different viruses. If not being controlled, it may lead to the invalidity of existing Chinese vaccine. Third, opening up and development. India’s neighbors, such as Myanmar and Vietnam, are important strategic partners in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which would be undermined if the outbreak gets out of control. The spread of the epidemic will spread to neighboring countries and even the whole world, and will affect the process of global reopening. In brief, over a long period of time, the Indian epidemic will increase the cost of epidemic prevention for China, and will slowdown the normal development of China’s economy.
Besides, in terms of morality, China is also willing to help. China is working to project an international image as a responsible power. Helping other countries to overcome the epidemic is undoubtedly an important part of global governance and also an inevitable requirement for the realization of a community of shared future for mankind. Traditionally, as a popular Chinese saying goes, Chinese people believe that “distant relatives are not as good as close neighbors.”
Therefore, it is logical for China to help India at this time, whether from the perspective of interest or morality. China’s foreign ministry has repeatedly expressed its willingness to provide necessary help to India, showing China’s goodwill and sincerity. However, due to its anti-China policy and propaganda, the Indian government refused assistance from China, ignoring the Indian people’s right to subsistence .
In light of the analysis above, at a time when the lives of hundreds of millions of Indian people are at stake, pragmatically, the Indian government should put aside its ideological bias and understand the goodwill from China. China and India, as two big developing countries in Asia, should strengthen cooperation in fighting the epidemic. High level officials of two countries should reach a strategic consensus on cooperation on the issue of anti-epidemic as soon as possible, and put aside the so-called political conflicts. China can provide the necessary medical assistance, such as medical oxygen, ventilators, even the vaccines. In addition, two countries should promote the depoliticization of vaccines, and push the WTO to temporarily issue EUL certification to more vaccines, so that more Indian people can get more vaccines. Finally, promoting the establishment of epidemic coordination mechanism in neighboring countries can also help curb the spread of coronavirus much more efficiently and substantially.
* Xu Xiaojing, a research assistant at CFAU, Beijing.
