To be said frankly, ICT is not standing here for implying any type of ‘Information and Technological objects’ but here, ICT implies Iran, China and Turkey which are the combined throat thorns for the new era of US government as well as for new US president Joe Biden. Will he be competent to challenge these regional powerhouses? This article summarized what the challenges are awaiting for Biden Government.
Already, Trump turned a bed of roses into a kittle political environment for Biden government. It is like that; Trump says in a fictional character, ‘if I die, I’ll bring you with me, no doubt’. Rhetorically, Trump had already generated a peculiar environment for Biden government where Biden must face some challenges and dissents.
ICT, however, is the most indomitable Tri-challenge for Biden government. Iran is molding its strategy by rapping and bewailing the murders of Qasem Soleimani and Mohsin Fakhrijadeh. Besides, China is scheming a new strategy and foreign policy of China-US which would be more influential than OBORI to impede the US and its former policy during the Trumpian Era. On the other side, Turkey is awaiting for seeing the ending of the Lausanne Treaty. After that, Turkey’s rising in world politics may bring a new era of ‘Thucydides Trap’ in the Eurasian region which will certainly be a concernment of any NATO members.
World politics is going through a neo-cold war especially, in the Western and Middle-East regions where the most exigent players are US, Israel, Iran, UAE and Saudi-Arabia. Many sources say that on 22nd November the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Saudi-Arabia and took participation in a meeting with MBS, if it is right, though many political high officials denied it, it would be a leading essence of traping Biden government in political angst. Targeting an aim, on 27th November, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh got assassinated which strongly gives a hint of a mastermind-plan and melancholia of Israel and its secret agency, MOSSAD. Not only Mohsen Fakhrizadeh but also more than four high officials and scientists got assassinated by MOSSAD last few years, NewYork Times and The Guardian said.
Years ago, Netanyahu addressed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in a meeting with high officials and told that “Remember the name, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh” which clears a neat and clean concern of this assassination. Already, many political analysts foresaw that Trump is going to formulate a huge political catastrophe between the US and Iran what may be a great difficulty for Biden government. From the side of president-elect Joe Biden and some officials of Democrats, they condemned and addressed this assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the (former) chief nuclear scientist of Iran, as the contemptible killing in this juncture. “All those things, I think, are going to be very difficult”, Biden told CNN.
In the very early time of this year, on 3rd January 2020, another high-official (Major General) of Iran, Qasem Soleimani also got assassinated by Trumpian Military. No sooner had they killed Soleimani than Trump conceded this killing as the attainment of their policy which could be a key-matter for winning in the US-election 2020. Unfortunately, it played a role as a demerit of Trump government.
Coming to the power and presidency in 2016’s election, Trump withdrew from the deal of ‘Iran Nuclear Deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ which deal was a great achievement of Obama government bringing back Iran from developing nuclear weapons. What are the consequences of these events that would keep Biden in adversity in his upcoming presidency?
What is the rejoinder of Iran? No doubt that Iran got massive supports and sympathy throughout the world after losing its two most potent officials. In addition, Iran has a plus-point for backing-up its power in the middle-east region if Biden gets Iran to sign in a new ‘Nuclear Deal’ and wants Iran keeping back from developing Nuclear Arms. It would not make happy Saudi-Arabia and Israel anymore! On the other side, if Biden doesn’t, and be unable to, want Iran to sign in a new ‘Nuclear Deal’ it also might be a plus-point for Iran to develop their nuclear arms. It was an affidavit of Biden government of bringing back Iran into ‘Nuclear Deal’ but the resultant will arise after getting receipt of the antiphon of Iran’s diplomacy. Quotha, Biden must get him in a predicament!
It was 2018 when the US turned on an economic cold war, ‘US-China Trade War’, with China. Though it was a key aspect of Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’, now, Biden also yearns for keeping this rivalry alive. Coming to the power in 2020 election, Biden clearly said that, “I am not going to make any immediate moves, and the same applies to the tariffs”. There is no suspicion that China is an economic ballgame in this concurrent world. The policy of Deng Xiaoping never dies where Xi Jinping exists and it teems OBOR, an influential economic zone-policy. Biden may lose a considerable economic interest in the eastern region if he not becomes more diplomatic than Obama and Trump.
To be mentioned, the military power rivalry between China and the USA in the Indo-Pacific region is a hotter issue than the existing economic rivalry. China is much more concerned with this in the military and security aspect though many pundits say that China only concerned with its economic stamina. It was Trump in the previous period who, had a good relation with Modi and India, got much supports that would be incompatible in Biden’s Era. Moreover, India will not give up on its strength in the Indo-Pacific region and it will be a magnanimous confederate of Biden government rather than developing good relation with China.
Till now, the United States is the leader of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” but it also brings another consequence that China will attempt to strengthen its power in this Indian Ocean region, ‘Thucydides Trap’ says like that. But, the favor and interest of India will destine the outcome and upshot.
Populism, Nationalism even Ultra-nationalism, nothing is out of the basket of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s domestic and foreign policy which flows a utopian pan-Turkism movement in this Eurasian region.
After the WWI, a series of treaties and especially, Lausanne Treaty of 1923 gave so many positive and negative consequences to Kemal Ataturk and its modern and secular Turkey. There were not only Montreux Convention of 1936 but also many other treaties and pacts which gave Turkey so much power in the Bosporus and Cyprus region though these series of treaties abolished the strong caliphate system of Turkey, following the output of First World War.
Nicholas J. Spykman, a major contributor of Political Geography and a political scientist of USA, told that “The Rimland contains the Heartland and whoever controls the Rimland, eventually controls the World Island and thus he controls the world”. And the inferring rimland is nothing but the Eurasian region, nowadays Turkey (in a major way), Russia, and Greece. Geopolitically, as a Eurasian country, Turkey is staying in a good stance and benefited zone. In this aspect, the US is more agitated with its naval power in (with) Greece and Cyprus rather than having concerned with any other matter.
However, Turkey has an amiable alliance of China, Russia, Pakistan and Malaysia. Though Pakistan and Malaysia are not countable in the military perspective, Russia is assisting Turkey a lot. Even, Turkey has many military deals with Russia what may be a great concern for the USA. Pointing out the win of Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, we can assume that the wining of Turkey and Russia both.
As a NATO member, Turkey may rise in any time which would be, a bone of contention with France, Greece but France and Greece never bear with this and, a matter of solace for the USA and Biden. Letting doubt aside, after the ending of the Lausanne Treaty, Turkey will revamp its oil business, proliferate its military power and economic reign. So, Biden would be more technical for keeping balance with this Eurasian ballgame.
On the whole, president-elect Mr Biden has bunches of gathered political experiences and he has the wit to deal but he and his diplomacy should be more prudent and keen-witted than that of the time of his vice-presidency. Along with Iran, China and Turkey, many other states and eastern-western regions should be considered to balance the power. More powerful plans than the Marshall Plan and Truman Doctrine of Containment would be taken by Biden’s government in this advanced era of politics otherwise it would make a collision of political multi-polarity.