Vietnam’s economic prospects under the new leadership
Vietnam has witnessed a transition to new leadership with new President Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Chairman of National Assembly Vuong Dinh Hue taking charge. The third time re-elected general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made it clear that there will be structural reforms and the anti-corruption drive would continue. This is meant to cleanse party of corrupt cadres and provide corruption free environment in the country. The Covid-19 and the recovery from the economic setback that was brought about by this pandemic, is now incrementally reversed. Mr. Trong has highlighted in his opening speech that pro business reforms is critical for the economy to take a giant leap as a liberal economy but with specific Vietnamese characteristics.
Vietnam is now a signatory to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) also known as Trans Pacific Partnership-11, as well as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). It has been seen that the improved relations between US and Vietnam as well as the ratification of the Vietnam- EU Free Trade Agreement in August 2020 has opened new avenues for promoting trade and investment with these economies. Vietnam has already made impressive growth last year when it reached near about 3 per cent of economic growth despite economic setbacks because of the Corona pandemic. Within the senior party leadership, it is acknowledged that high growth rates and better living standards would be instrumental in better economic management as well as integrating Vietnam into the global supply chains. At times, even global financial institutions such as World Bank and International Monetary Fund has expressed belief that Vietnam is continuing towards a more open and competitive economy, and is increasingly diversifying its economic relationship with various countries across the world.
It is expected that Vietnam will adhere to its 2016-2020 economic reforms blueprint outlining favourable conditions for the private sector to grow which includes structural and institutional support for private sector, as an important engine of the Vietnam’s economy. As per the IMF reports, in the year 2021, Vietnam is expected to grow at the rate of nearly 7 per cent and the per capita income is expected grow more than $ 3750 in the next couple of years. It is expected that with Joe Biden coming to power in US, the country might reconsider its withdrawal from Trans Pacific Partnership and might re-join so as to work out on trade and investment possibilities with the other 11 nations which have made structural adjustments to trade and investment so as to accommodate the stringent trade norms and the tax procedures required for the TPP.
The new Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh remarked in his first speech that he would protect the country’s sovereignty and independence while at the same time maintain the anti-corruption drive to cleanse the economy and provide better avenues for growth and investment. The new prime minister has gained experience in different capacities starting with public security and thereafter becoming deputy minister in 2010.
The priority for the new leadership will be focused more on economy as Vietnam is seen as a middle-income country which has developed as a small and medium enterprises economy, and has been working on its disinvestment policy, and also implementing the various multilateral and bilateral agreements that it had signed in the last two years. The bilateral agreements that Vietnam has signed include Vietnam Eurasian Economic Union FTA, and Vietnam- UK and North Ireland FTA. Efforts have been made at all levels for liberalising Vietnamese economy and improving its trade with countries such as US and the EU as the benefits of larger volume of trade would trickle down to the different sectors of the economy. The new leadership is focusing on proficiency of English among its entrepreneurs and also easing the foreign direct investment procedures in different provinces.
In the first quarter of this year the Vietnam economy grew at 4.5 percent with the increasing trade with the US. Also, Vietnam’s new leadership has made a commitment to build a technical ecosystem which would provide both capital and skilled labour which is a prerequisite for such a network to thrive.
One of the World Bank reports acknowledges the fact that Vietnam has transitioned from a centrally planned to a market economy which has led to the liberation of Vietnam as the lower middle-income country. It has also facilitated Vietnam’s recognition as the most dynamic emerging countries in Southeast Asia region. As per the data evaluated by the World Bank between the year 2002 to 2018, the GDP has increased by 2.7-fold while at the same time the per capita income was reported in 2019 to be US $ 2700. The World Bank has lauded Vietnam’s initiative of alleviating poverty from 70 per cent to less than 6 per cent during this period. Vietnam’s economy grew by 3 per cent in 2020 and is said to grow 7 per cent despite adverse impact of COVID-19 pandemic. The increase in economic growth has been facilitated by export-oriented manufacturing and resurgent domestic demand. Given the fact that Vietnam’s has a sizeable number of young populations with the life expectancy of 76 years, this population is going to fill the gap between the rich and the poor. It is expected that the middle-class which is growing in the country will account for 26 per cent of the population by 2026.
With the increased urbanisation and the strong economic fundamentals, the new leadership is preparing for addressing the challenges such as waste management and supporting green technologies so as to address pollution challenges. In another report which was released by IMF focusing on Vietnam’s economy it stated that Vietnam has taken decisive steps to limit both the impact on health, and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing the fact that successful containment along with structured policy support has helped to limit the economic repercussion and also reduce the stimulus package for the industry in the year 2020. It also states that it is going to emerge as one of the major centres of high-tech exports of electronics. It acknowledges that the country has graduated from agriculture-based economy to a modern economy which has boosted living standards due to strong foreign investment and sufficient current account surpluses.
The new leadership led by the Party General Secretary, Prime Minister along with the Finance minister has found strong fundamentals to boost economic growth and improve productivity. It is speculated that the macroeconomic policies will be supporting the active labour market and provide job training as well as structural social safety net to address socio-economic issues. The economic reforms (Doi Moi) initiated after 1986 would be completing three half decades, and therefore plans are afoot to provide better avenues for growth and active participation of private sector in the building Vietnam as a robust economy of East Asia.
Brick By Brick, BRICS Now a New Bridge for a New World
Measuring BRICS in single decades, in 2001, BRIC started as an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, and China; Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill claimed that by 2050 the four BRIC economies would come to dominate the global economy. So South Africa was added to BRIC in 2010. The following countries are now expressing interest in joining: Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Is this now the awakening of BRICS+ or BRICS power?
BRICS+ by 2030 will add dozen new members and carve new indices, and by 2040, it will lead to new intellectualism on geopolitics and socio-economies for the super complex 2050 age of smart living.
Historically, BRICS nations pushed on their people-power agenda over super-power titles. They made extreme value-creation economic models over focusing on powerful military-industrial complexes. They focused on nation-building and avoided special mandates to manage global affairs. They have been on a quest to upgrade them. They were feeding hungry mouths, as they were population rich, constantly up-skilling, and improving value creation as they were SME rich. They kept a steady watch to create multilateralism to uplift humankind.
They, too, made mistakes, as did the rest of the world
In the third decade of the third millennium, come 2020, three transformations erupted. First, futurism changed the rules on the ‘physicality of work’ and created a new imbalance with the ‘mentality of performance’; this has divided the workforce of world; the old system of over a billion commuting daily to the center of a complex maze to arrive daily at the sanctum of the company and create climate change. So now, in response, some 50% of the world’s workforce has chosen to stay away and work remotely in the surroundings of wide-open choices. Furthermore, technology uplifted micro-power-nations and exposed Western economies now stripped naked in bubble baths on slippery floors, they tippy-toe practicing conga-lines
Newly magnified economy: Behold, what microscopes exposed the magnified inner workings of the body. Similarly, the integrated networks have exposed the digital connectivity and working of millions of villages, cities, and nations with additional billions of people to interact, trade, improve grassroots prosperity and create a well-informed and opinionated citizenry. Some 100 years ago, if only 1% of the world’s population knew what was happening, today it is a dozen times more, and by 2030 double again. Why would these numbers change the global economic matrix when translated into micro-trading, micro-manufacturing, and micro-exporting? International opinion today is already strong enough to crush any national opinion of any nation still lingering under the illusion of a self-promoted victory.
When the SME sector already exists within each nation, the global markets are always hungry for good quality goods and services, and the rains of almost free digital technologies make such transformation a quick turnaround. Therefore, mindsets are critically essential; the need to define the difference between the job seeker mindset that builds the organizations and the job creator mindset that originates and creates that organization in the first place.
So what are the lessons, key features, and blueprints in sight?
Mistakes and new lessons: Last many decades, as the new world was rising, Western citizens felt like China experts, and their regular visits to local China towns restaurants in each city misguided them that Laundromat trained Chinese could only produce some chicken fried rice. Ever since the advent of the camera, the East was always projected as poor and dysfunctional; mesmerized by the media coverage during the last many decades, the West was equally convinced that India, a land of only snake charmers and fakirs, finally someday speak better English. The general perceptions about Asia, besides eating rice, if they could ever make cheaper products for the West. The rest is history, mistakes, and lessons.
After the big ding-dong nights of 2000 New Year’s Eve, today’s new story starts from the 20th chapter. Now China and India alone have created some 500 million new entrepreneurs, not by a magic pill or meta-crypto-wand but by National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism, a slow, painful deployment of SMEs across the nation, and by creating mobilization protocols to identify, classify, and digitizing based on multiple factors from type and size to the evaluation of their “respectable” role in future communities and economic factors. This methodology was far more advanced in strategy and stern management over the globalization frenzy from the West, where sudden exporting of manufacturing of the industrial plants to kill manufacturing and destroying the middle class out of the West already declared globalization a great success.
The other mistake is to assume this is an economic or an academic study, at best, like an Oscar Slap on sleepy rotundas occupied with endless printing of money across the Western economies. Instead, this is an entrepreneurial response for the entrepreneurial nations to awaken hidden entrepreneurial talents in up-skilling SMEs and re-skilling manufacturers at national levels.
Recommendations and warnings: No airline can survive with only Flight Engineers and Frequent Flyers stuffed inside the cockpits; that space is only reserved for highly trained pilots. Henceforth, across the world, any economic development of any size, shape, or authority may find other more suitable alternate paths of occupation if they still cannot demonstrate any levels of understanding, applicable skills, or mobilization mastery on the National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism to up-skill exporters and re-skill manufactures and uplift national SME sector as the most prominent economic contributor of the nation. Study the biggest error of economic thinking
Underestimating the hidden powers of early thinking and starting a tiny unknown SME is a mistake of mindsets; here, entrepreneurialism like a saga unfolds, like a voluminous piece of literature but demanding literacy, understanding the job seeker mindsets and the ability to differentiate with entrepreneurial job creator mindset is already winning half the battle. Study the Mindset Hypotheses
Nations failing to realize the power of the billion SME rising in Asia and still unable to declare a national agenda of national mobilization of SMEs now must acquire an understanding of the 4B Factor: a billion displaced due to the pandemic, a billion replaced due to technology, a billion misplaced in wrong jobs now a billion on starvation watch. Furthermore, this 4 billion ever digitally connected mass of people ever in the history of humankind is now the most significant force of global opinion. Notice nations are already intoxicated with joy over the popularity of their national public opinion while having just an opposite international opinion on the world stage.
Recommendation; everyone is born an entrepreneur; our system chips away at this talent. Nevertheless, 10% to 50% high potential SMEs of any nation once are identified, classified, and digitized within 100 days. The uplifting digital platforms of up-skilling exporters and re-skilling manufacturers will result in 10% to 50% quadrupling their performance, productivity, and profitability. Imagine how much-regimented efforts will activate a positive national economic revolution based on real value creation, uplifting grassroots prosperity. How soon is a nation ready for a significant change? The rest is easy.
Promoting Economic Security: Enhancing Stability and Well-being
The stability and well-being of people, communities, and countries are critically dependent on economic security. It covers a range of topics, such as access to necessities, work opportunities, stable incomes, and defense against economic shocks. The need of guaranteeing economic security has increased significantly in the modern world, which is characterized by technical developments, geopolitical shifts, and unexpected disasters. The importance of economic security is examined in this article, along with important tactics for promoting adaptability and preserving people’s quality of life.
The value of economic security to individuals, communities, and countries cannot be overstated. By fostering an atmosphere where people and families can achieve their basic needs without suffering undue stress, it promotes stability. Because of this stability, people can recuperate and start over after severe shocks like economic downturns, natural disasters, or health crises.
Furthermore, economic security contributes to social cohesion by reducing inequality and fostering inclusivity. When individuals feel economically secure, they are more likely to actively participate in society, contribute to their communities, and engage in productive endeavors. This sense of security leads to greater social harmony and a collective feeling of prosperity.
Moreover, economic security is vital for long-term sustainable development. It enables individuals and societies to invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation. These investments drive economic growth, improve overall well-being, and create the foundation for a prosperous future. By ensuring economic security, countries can build resilient and sustainable economies that benefit their citizens and contribute to global progress.
To enhance economic security, several key strategies can be implemented. Firstly, governments and businesses should prioritize diversifying their economies by promoting sectors with growth potential and resilience. By reducing reliance on a single industry or market, countries can mitigate the impact of economic downturns and build a more robust and diversified economy.
Investing in education and skills development is another crucial strategy. Governments and organizations must focus on providing quality education, vocational training, and lifelong learning opportunities. Equipping individuals with the necessary tools and knowledge enables them to adapt to changing economic landscapes and remain competitive in the job market.
Strong social safety nets are necessary to protect people during times of economic upheaval. The most disadvantaged populations should be given priority in the design and implementation of comprehensive social welfare systems by the government. Creating a safety net for all citizens entails implementing programs for income support, healthcare coverage, and unemployment benefits.
Promoting entrepreneurship and innovation can create new opportunities for economic growth and job creation. Governments can support aspiring entrepreneurs by providing access to capital, mentorship programs, and favorable regulatory environments. Embracing technological advancements and fostering a culture of innovation further enhances economic security, particularly in an increasingly digital world.
International cooperation is essential since economic security is a global issue. Cooperation between nations is necessary to advance ethical business practices, lessen economic inequality, and improve financial stability. Initiating discourse, coordinating policy, and assisting nations in economic crises are all important functions of multilateral organizations.
Societies can improve their economic security and create a more secure and prosperous future by putting these strategies into practice: diversifying the economy, investing in education and skills, creating social safety nets, encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation, and fostering international cooperation.
Having economic security is crucial in a world that is uncertain and changing quickly. Governments, corporations, and individuals may all work together to create an environment that promotes economic security by putting a priority on stability, resilience, and inclusivity. We can create a more resilient and prosperous future for everybody through diversity, education, social safety nets, entrepreneurship, and international cooperation. By making investments in financial stability, we build a more just and sustainable world.
The Impact of Globalization on the South Asian Economy
Globalization refers to the process by which economies, societies, and cultures from different countries become integrated with one another. The economies of the countries that make up South-East Asia, which include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, have been significantly impacted by the spread of globalization in recent decades. The effects of globalization on the economies of South Asian countries have been mixed, with some positive and some negative results.
Positive Impacts of Globalization on the South Asian Economy
The expansion of South-East Asia’s trade and investment opportunities is one of the aspects of globalization that has had the most positive impact on the region’s economy. Because of its large consumer base, low labor costs, and strategic location, the region has become an attractive destination for foreign investors. As a consequence of this, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Asia has significantly increased, which has led to the development of new industries and the production of new jobs.
The expansion of the service industry in Sout-East Asia can also be attributed to the effects of globalization. South Asian countries have emerged as a hub for the outsourcing of services such as information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing as a result of the emergence of new technologies and the increased availability of skilled labor (BPO). As a direct consequence of this, the area has benefited from an increase in both the number of available jobs and the amount of money it brings.
Last but not least, globalization has facilitated greater cultural interaction and integration throughout South-East Asia. The region possesses a significant cultural legacy, and the advent of globalization has made it possible for South Asian music, films, and cuisine to become popular all over the world. This has not only contributed to a greater awareness of the region’s cultural heritage, but it has also opened up new doors for the travel and hospitality industry.
Negative Impacts of Globalization on the South-East Asian Economy
Even though there have been some positive effects, there have also been some negative effects that globalization has had on the South Asian economy. The widening gap between rich and poor is one of the most pressing problems that we face today. The advantages brought about by globalization have accrued almost entirely to a relatively small number of people, which has contributed to a widening income gap. As a consequence of this, social unrest and a wider gap in incomes have emerged.
Another significant obstacle that has been presented is the displacement of workers and traditional industries. Due to the effects of globalization, many smaller businesses have been forced to shut down, and their employees have been relocated to larger companies that are more productive. As a consequence of this, there has been an increase in unemployment as well as social unrest, particularly in rural areas.
Globalization has contributed to the deterioration of the environment in South Asia. The region has seen a growth in industries such as the textile industry, both of which have had a significant impact on the environment as a result of their expansion. The population’s health and well-being have suffered as a direct result of environmental degradation, which can be traced back to the increased consumption of natural resources and the improper disposal of waste produced by industrial processes.
The economy of the South-East Asian region has been affected in both positive and negative ways by the phenomenon of globalization. While it has resulted in the growth of industries and increased cultural exchange, it has also resulted in the displacement of workers and the widening of income inequality. While it has contributed to the growth of industries and increased cultural exchange, it has also resulted in the displacement of workers. In order to address these challenges, policy interventions that foster inclusive growth, protect the environment, and create new opportunities for the population will be required. By acting in this manner, countries in South Asia will be able to take advantage of globalization’s positive aspects while mitigating some of its more damaging effects.
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