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NAM has a critical role to play: Interview with one of the most influential women in Africa

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Ameenah Gurib-Fakim, chair at the University of Mauritius, sworn in as the 6th President and the First Female President of the Republic of Mauritius (in 2015).

Forbes List noted her for the 100 ‘Most Powerful women in the world’ and 1st among the Top 100 Women in Africa (Forbes List 2017, 2019). The Foreign Policy’ Magazine listed her as one of the leading Global Thinkers.

What went through your mind when Mauritius majority political party asked you to run as President of the country? Especially given the fact that you had no prior political experience.

In the Republic of Mauritius, the post of Presidency is not a political post per se as the President has replaced the ‘Queen of England’ when the country adopted the status of Republic and thus becomes the Head of State. Executive power rests with the Prime Minister. When I was approached, I said to myself why not – if I can serve my country at the highest level. I am not the first scientist to serve in this position. Other commonwealth countries have done the same.

Gender equality is one of the principal Sustainable Development Goals. It is being debated globally at all levels. In Many African countries there is known to be gender inequality, is that an issue in Mauritius?

Gender equality or inequality is a global issue and that is why we name it on 8th March every year. Does the African continent have more gender inequality ? Good question !.. If we look at the political arena, Africa has some countries who are ahead in gender balancing in Parliament – South Africa, Rwanda etc.. 5 Ladies Presidents on the continent already..  In Mauritius since education became free in 1976, there has been an increase in the feminization of several key sectors including the judiciary, education, medical profession etc.. So I will say that work is still in progress in Mauritius and on the African continent.

What has been your experience regarding this issue during your career and your presidency?

Gender inequality has been pervasive throughout my career. The pecking order is in place and all the way up to the position of Head of State. Patriarchy is omnipresent but I was lucky when I was growing up and I had a cheerleader like my father who taught me that I was capable of doing anything. This boosted my self confidence and from then on, I could take many calculated risks in my life and my career. Risk taking is not taught in any business school, it is an innate feeling that must be inculcated in any young girl. Stereotyping destroys the self confidence in many girls and many are lost as they climb the professional ladder. Societal pressure does not help either. It is time to dao away with these prejudices if economies are to thrive. It has been said ad nauseum that educating a girl is not the right thing to do but the smart thing to do !..

In precolonial Africa there was mostly no (or very little) gender inequality which we may see today. Is it so with Mauritius?

A: I think in pre-colonial days, there were so many other challenges that women rights issues may have not been at the top of the agenda. Nonetheless, in Mauritius the right to vote for women came during the colonial days.

Studies show that women do not take opportunities as much as men do, how do you think nations should encourage young women to take a seat at the table? 

It is cliche to say that women do not seize opportunities. Women are denied opportunities at all levels and so much so that words like ‘quotas’ keep coming up in conversations. Since the CEDAW meeting in Beijing in 1995, many of the gains for women have been reversed only during the Covid era. We have seen so many women losing their jobs; those operating in the informal sector could not access the stimulus package that the government was offering because of the legal status of their business and also one cannot turn a blind eye to domestic violence !

Your Excellency, you are a very fascinating woman, being both religious and a scientist, Is there ever a contradiction in being a woman of god and a woman of science? 

A: There is no incongruity in being a woman in science and one who believes in the Majesty of the Creator. Science is a tool that helps us understand the wonders of the living world and its perfection. We are just cobblers when we say that we are protecting the planet. We are not protecting the planet. We are protecting our survival on this planet. In fact Nature does not need us. Again Covid has amply highlighted this when wild animals took over our cities when we were indoors.

Not only women in politics but also women in science are probably not prominent in Mauritius and perhaps in the sub-Saharan region. Are there any projects you are involved in or keen on?

There are still very few women in science and women in politics for our own good. This applies to Africa and to the whole world. We must empower our girls and our women in all walks of life if our economies are to thrive. An educated woman is one who will take the right decisions for her family, society, country and eventually the world. I am keen on sustainable development goals. They are all ‘systems’ and if we get them right, we will definitely ‘… leave no one behind’..

In a few nations in Europe we have seen it become a law that a certain number of women have to be in positions of power in corporations, in Africa, specifically the sub-Saharan region is that something that could happen in the foreseeable near future? 

Weneedlaws to be able to ensure more female representation as otherwise it will not happen.

Mauritius is a multicultural nation, with nationals from different ethnic and religious backgrounds. What has been key in preventing cultural fragmentation within the country?

In Mauritius, we are a population of immigrants and we all hailed from elsewhere. This has been a powerful reckoning. We are perhaps one of the few countries in the world where you can find a church,  a mosque and a temple within one square kilometer. Over the years, we have developed a way of living together which remains unique in the world. There is a tendency for cultural fragmentation especially at election time but fortunately the social fabric is strong enough to weather this down. At the level of the Presidency, I have always encouraged interfaith and intercultural dialogue. This helped whenever there was any sporadic intercommunal tension.

Transforming and improving the Tech and scientific field in Mauritius (and greater Africa) has been one of your priorities. But big parts of Africa are still dealing with instability in many areas. How would you see the realization of these innovative goals in the current unstable environment in which many African countries fall within?

Mauritius and the African continent are already straddling the 4th Industrial Revolution. Our region is going to have to run before crawling in the light of the potential and challenges that the sector will bring. There are huge potentials if we invest in the right ecosystems that will empower the youth. 4IR will transform how we do business and Africa is blessed with all the necessary material resources. We have to make sure that it works for its people.

How do you think Mauritius and many other African countries should strengthen the integrity of public institutions and government officials? 

There is no doubt that institutions matter. The legacy of all leaders must be strengthened when they leave office. It’s a culture that must be inculcated in our youngsters. Having said this, one must not forget that for every corruptor there is a corruptee !..

As a former president, academic, entrepreneur, and scientist, what is your priority now, and did the political experiences hape your new inhibitions? 

The political world provided me with a pedestal of substance to get my words out. My message will remain the same. We need 100% of our human capital, we need quality education, we need the best institutions, an ecosystem that will empower young people so that a better tomorrow is within reach.

What advice would you give young women today in the workforce?

Dream big but set yourself goals and know that there is nothing in this world that you cannot do.. Take risks and deliver on your promises to yourself… 

What are your thoughts on the current discussions of the Vienna Process?

Past Brexit, the EU Europe is perceived to becoming smaller and more fragile, while the non-EU Europe is growing more detached and disenfranchised. At this moment in time while the world is still in the grips of the unfolding crisis, there is a rallying call for more integration. On the medium to longer term, an integrated and united Europe will be necessary. The world will emerge as a multipolar world and a united Europe will help ensure peace, security and also the much needed multilateral system to tackle global issues. The Vienna Process seems indispensable for the future of Europe, and we in Africa will observe it as an interesting model to learn from.

Lastly, do we need an reinvigorated Non aligned movement today or it is movement of the past?

Some of the members of the NAM are presently among the G20 countries which produce over 80% of the Global GDP. I think that with two thirds of UN Member States, the Non-Aligned Movement has a critical role to play in forging global solidarity and help address global challenges. The NaM marked important past, but has certainly its bright future, too.

***

Ameenah Gurib-Fakim (GCSK, CSK, PhD, Dsc) has been the Managing Director of the Centre International de Développement Pharmaceutique (CIDP) Research and Innovation as well as Professor of Organic Chemistry with an endowed chair at the University of Mauritius. Since 2001, she has served successively as Dean of the Faculty of Science and Pro Vice Chancellor (2004- 2010). She has also worked at the Mauritius Research Council as Manager for Research (1995-1997).

Ms Gurib-Fakim earned a BSc in Chemistry from the University of Surrey (1983) and a PhD from the University of Exeter, UK (1987). During her academic journey, she has participated in several consultation meetings on environmental issues organized by international organizations. Between 2011-2013, she was elected and served as Chairperson of the International Council for Scientific Union – Regional Office for Africa, and served as an Independent Director on the Board of Barclays Bank of Mauritius Ltd between (2012-2015).

As a Founding Member of the Pan African Association of African Medicinal Plants, she co-authored the first ever African Herbal Pharmacopoeia. She has authored and co-edited 30 books, several book chapters and scientific articles in the field of biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. She has lectured extensively across the world; is a Member of the Editorial Boards of major journals, has served on Technical and national committees in various capacities. Elevated to the Order of the Commander of the Star and Key by the Government of Mauritius in 2008, she has been admitted to the Order of the Chevalier dans L’Ordre des Palmes Academiques by the Government of France in 2010 and is the recipient of 5 DSc (s).

Elected Fellow of several academies and societies, Ms Gurib-Fakim received several international prizes including the 2007 l’Oreal-UNESCO Prize for Women in Science, the African Union Commission Award for Women in Science, 2009.

On 05 June 2015, she was sworn in as the 6th President and the First Female President of the Republic of Mauritius and served in that capacity until March 2018.

She was elevated to the Order of GCSK by the Government of Mauritius, and received the Legion d’Honneur from the Government of France in 2016. In 2017, she received both the lifelong achievement award of the United States Pharmacopoeia-CePat Award and the American Botanical Council Norman Farnsworth Excellence in Botanical Research Award. In 2018, she received the Order of St George at the Semperopernball, Dresden, Germany. In 2019, she received the ‘Trailblazing award for political leadership’ by the World Women Leaders Council in Iceland. In 2020, she was elected Honorary President of the International and Engineering Institute and received their 2020 5th IETI Annual Scientific Award. She also received the IAS-COMSTECH Ibrahim Memorial Award from the WIAS in Jordan. In 2021, she received the Benazir Bhutto Lifetime Achievement Award.

In June 2016, she was in the Forbes List for the 100 ‘Most Powerful women in the world’ and 1st among the Top 100 Women in Africa Forbes List 2017, 2019. She is honoured as one of Foreign Policy’s 2015 Global Thinkers.

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European Council offers €40 million assistance under the EPF in support of Mozambique

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With about 3,100 African, European and US soldiers already been deployed to Cabo Delgado province, the security situation has begun stabilizing in Mozambique. Southern African Development Community (SADC) has a Standby Force effectively working, besides the Special Force from Rwanda.

Rwanda was the first foreign army to send troops to Mozambique, deploying 1,000 in July. South Africa has the largest contingent of around 1,500 troops. External countries are enormously helping to stabilize the situation in Mozambique. Mozambique’s former colonizer Portugal and the United States both sent special forces to train local troops.

According reports, the European Union (EU) concretely sent 1,100 soldiers to the country in September and the troops will be in Mozambique for two years to train rapid intervention units. It is supplying the Mozambican army with non-lethal weapons.

“This mission will contribute to operations to defend Mozambique. After finishing the training, we will prepare an operational training plan for the future. The soldiers trained here will be able to go on missions,” Head of Mozambique’s Armed Forces, Joaquim Mangrasse, said in Maputo.

On November 19, the European Council adopted a decision establishing a €40 million assistance measure under the European Peace Facility (EPF) in support of Mozambique. This assistance measure complements an urgent measure amounting to €4 million approved by the Council under the EPF on 30 July 2021 for the most urgently required equipment.

With the measure decided on, the EU will support the Mozambican military units trained by the EU military training mission in Mozambique (EUTM Mozambique), and enable them to conduct security operations in the northern province of Cabo Delgado.

The assistance measure will, in particular provide adequate, non-lethal equipment to strengthen the capacities of the first Mozambican army companies scheduled to be the first to benefit from the EUTM Mozambique’s training. This includes individual and collective equipment, ground mobility assets, technical tools and a field hospital.

The provision of the assistance will be subject to the compliance of the EUTM-trained units of the Mozambican armed forces with relevant international law, in particular international human rights and international humanitarian law, as well as with relevant legal instruments and best practices based on international and EU rules, standards and policies in the area of the supply of military equipment.

The assistance measure will cover part of the EUTM’s mandate duration. In 2021, partial support packages will be provided to the two companies currently undergoing training by Portugal while, as from 2022, three additional companies will receive support. In total, 11 companies of the Mozambican army and navy will undergo training by the EUTM in several batches and subsequently form a Quick Reaction Force.

The November 19 decision follows the request by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Mozambique in her letter of 27 August 2021 to the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Reports said that Islamic-State linked militants have been wreaking havoc in the area since 2017, raiding villages and towns in violence that has claimed at least 3,340 lives and displaced more than 800,000 people. The grave situation attracted international concern when they attacked the key port town of Palma in March, killing dozens as thousands fled into surrounding forest.

The violence forced France’s Total Energies to declare force majeure and evacuate staff from a nearby multi-billion-dollar natural gas project.

Mozambique is a member of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). Mozambique is a country located in Southeast Africa bordered by the Indian Ocean to the east, Tanzania to the north, Malawi and Zambia to the northwest, Zimbabwe to the west, and Eswatini (Swaziland) and South Africa to the southwest.

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Underdevelopment Mindsets: An Africanizing American Perspective

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I took my first international development studies class in the 1970s while pursuing Northwestern University Sociology doctoral studies in the United States.  International development studies back in those days was a brand-new field in the various social sciences emerging from growing assessment of scholars, consultants, emerging international development NGO administrators, and so called first world national and international organizational policy makers in the United States, Europe, the United Nations, and the World Bank as American and European colonial powers legally freed their colonies. Such legal freedom called “independence” usually was with strings attached to assure dependent marginal new nations without competition capacity against their former colonial authorities.

Before I began to travel and live in African countries, beginning with Sierra Leone as a 1989-90 Fulbright Scholar, and in other legally decolonized countries, back then labeled the “third world”, I belonged to that liberal naive branch of international development studies which rejected terminologies such as ” underdeveloped” and ” developing” which insinuated that peoples of such lands were somehow inferior humans or not human at all. I still do reject any such insinuations about anyone which are biogenetic or theological which claim some people wherever they are, in this case, so called third or first world peoples, are naturally inferior or superior human beings.

But there are, indeed, psychological, social, economic, and political consequences of what has happened to still dependent legally decolonized peoples with underdevelopment and developing outcomes when compared with what it is like living in the first world.  After traveling and living in Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America off and on since the 1990s and full time in Africa for nearly 10 years now, I can now attest to the realness of what it means to live in a developing or merely, underdeveloped country.

I will here focus on psychological aspects of underdevelopment which I have found to be characteristic in the African and other so called third world countries I have   traveled to and especially those I have resided in for a couple of reasons. First, because before my so called third world lived experiences, I used to reject most now classical psychological theorists of societal development and underdevelopment, conventional such as David McClellan and radical such as Franz Fanon. I assumed their views were patronizing over generalizations. Second, what matters the most in human development are the individual cognitions, attitudes, and coping skills we learn institutionally from our families, communities, schools, faith communities, communication technologies, and governments embedded in vastly varied historical sociopolitical, cultural, and socioeconomic contexts. That is, what is generally called our daily mindsets.

What I wish to point out then is: in various historically contextualized ways such as the dominant cultural and linguistic backgrounds of legally former colonizers and thus their colonized oppressed, the status type of historical colonization such as slavery, indentured labor, limited free people, or mode of economic production such as plantation, factory, retail and other consumer sectors, limited businesses and civil service employment, all produced patterns of daily mindsets.  As their now neo-colonial continuities, these mindsets contribute greatly to national underdevelopment. Unless they change a nation may adapt more or less to the 21st century well developed world in consuming first world fashion styles, food, car purchases, smart phones, home and commercial office building designs, and legal and health practices but the mindset is in being say a slave, an indentured laborer, or in being a limited freed person used to having limited civil liberties or human rights and human responsibilities.

What are some of the more common neo-colonial mindsets generating continued underdevelopment where I have casually observed and experienced   over the years in Africa and elsewhere in the so called third world?

1.Transactional relationships meaning building relationships with others especially those with means perceived or real is an end to get something rather than to build authentic caring friendships and other trusting and loyal meaningful rather than ends oriented relationships. The person is important to get to know as long as you get something out of it– money, position, property, a child, and is tossed away as soon as use value is depleted. The more people place value in sincere private and public caring (charity) relationships, the more a country like its communities and institutions within develops.

2. Little value for efficiency. This means other things matter besides time management, setting and reaching goals, and being productive in workplaces and in general life such as beauty maintenance, gossiping, family affairs, leisure, and pursuing romance. Work is organized around playtime not playtime around work so having time off like short standard work hours, and long weekends and breaks and many holidays are top priority.

3.Buying status symbols such as cars and homes, makeup, facelifts, and fashions through great loan debt beyond real cost of living finances is an obsession which causes great stress, waste of time and energy in constant comparisons competition while ignoring holistic life values and practices. All of this comes crashing down at the least economic crisis such as unemployment, ill health or death of breadwinners as seen in COVID-19 pandemic impacts disproportionately impacting personal and societal indebted so called third world countries with their easy loan opportunities.

4. Looking Outward and Upward. Rather than having an attitude and commitment value to advocate for national pride rooted in good governance and genuine economic and sociopolitical human rights for everyone including the riddance of societal and institutional insufficiencies such as corrupt governments and corrupt institutions such as police, hospitals, media, and schools, one dreams about going to America, France, New Zealand, UK, Canada, or Australia as promised lands of milk and honey. It is a mindset that few in developing countries can realize. It causes negativity, stagnation, and apathy rather than effective human rights movement mobilization. It also encourages casting blame at the wrong causes of corruption, poverty, marginality which keeps citizens in mindsets of blaming their leaders for forced choices they must make due to the neo-colonial boxes they are locked into. It is ironic that such common dreamers wish to run to the very so called first world countries which are the sources of their societal miseries. By the way, this “looking outward and upward” mindset refers as well to the tendency to view anything made in the West in terms of consumer goods and anything sounding western like an accent or being Western such as a potential mate is superior to anything native, providing of course that which is western is somehow white.

5. Having mass consumer literary rather than real life reading and understanding which means buying the ” I love New York” t-shirt or working or eating in a KFC restaurant without knowing or caring about what the words mean or the history of the company hiring you or selling you chicken. Using Internet search engines such as Google to find video games or latest American movie or pop song or to do online shopping without using search engines let alone bookstores and libraries to read about what’s going on in the world or about historical issues.  Wanting to only read a few soundbite Instagram words with photos while reading more than a couple of paragraphs is too much.

6. Thinking about “success,” “achievement,” “making it” are magical things which happen to you absent of loyalty, faithfulness, sacrificial hard work, and a committed value for needing to be mentored and at times criticized not just praised. So, dream and do nothing or little and quit the first time someone makes you feel bad or disagrees with you or criticizes you. This is a mark of a low self-esteemed mindset which makes developing countries filled with dreamers rather than doers; those afraid of taking risks and taking criticism it takes to achieve. Always talking never doing. Just dreaming.

7.Mindless development means taking development ideas from the West and applying them to non-western contexts usually through some exorbitant international loan or government funding or international development NGO support which does not fit the realities of the country.  But it feeds well the pockets of those who cook up the plans to copy the West in being Western in image though does great harm to the ordinary citizens of their country. What happened in Afghanistan with its 12,000 contractors propped up for twenty years as mindless projects making money is characteristic of what has been going on in the so-called world for decades now. Building schools which have failed to educate. Building unnecessary skyscrapers which come to collapse. Building unnecessary bridges and tunnels. Building clinics and research labs which for years chase chronic diseases seemingly unable to cure and capture while building resumes and providing the income and comfortable accommodations of so called third world health experts be they Westerners or the Westernized. Missionaries of so many faiths coming over by the boatloads to the shores of Africa and to the continent’s many nations who after they leave things remain the same. The morality problems, the poverty, the massive lack of genuine conversion, etc. Such contemporary missionary work, in more cases than a few done in great material comfort, is another example of mindless development which perpetuates underdevelopment adorned in the usual smiles and well intentions that mindless development displays though in different flavors and fabrics.

Mindless development also relates to the misapplication of Eastern and Western ideologies imposed on the ex-colonial Non-West such as communism or democracy which don’t even fit or do well in originating Eastern or Western countries and overtime have evolved into different forms of governance than original constitutional mandates. And then everyone seemingly in East and West elite foreign policy making circles become disappointed when collective farms, multiparty, and even human rights and responsibilities don’t work in neocolonial impositions in African or other so called third world countries. Or shock or dismay occurs if such nation building practices occur in ways apart from Eastern and Western scripts and prescriptions. The emergence of bubbling up citizen movements against standing African governments in recent years in Egypt, Tunisa, Nigeria, Botswana, The Gambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa have Easterners and Westerners scratching their heads, since after all, according to their paradigms, African countries don’t have civil societies. African citizens are conventionally viewed in the East and West as being merely passive pawns, especially those claiming to be in what has been called authoritarian states or because they are in democracies which are poorly lead and managed.

Anyone who is honest rather than in denial due to ideological blinders or blind nationalism would have to admit the observational points made are worthy of further investigation and acting on to eradicate and thus authentically liberate those who remain victimized by the neo-colonial underdevelopment which plagues their countries. As well, underdevelopment mindsets learned in the homeland can come to hinder their own individual development if they have been able to emigrate elsewhere since changing sovereignty geography does not necessarily change well internalized psychological mindsets. Such a geographical change in life can merely allow for a mindset to find new fertile soil for germinating a transplanted mental inclination causing just as much individual underdevelopment as the structural underdevelopment continues to do back home.

It would be a grave inconsideration if I did not raise the point that even though what I have been casting here as the mindset psychology of underdevelopment pertains to the so called the third world, it can be said to also refer to human developmental problems in the so called first world. The American mindset claiming we are so superior allows us to forget our own chronic areas of individual and societal underdevelopment and the mindsets which maintain such dominant mythologies.  American medical systems and our higher education systems rank among the lowest in the world. Our election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2016 and his behavior while in office and his refusal to concede losing to Joe Biden is a script expected in a so-called Banana Republic or African country as much as members of a national legislative branches well in the deep pockets of donors rather than representing the quality of life needs of their constituencies and of the nation. The Republican effort to repress voter rights of Non-Whites to win future elections is something you would expect in a so called third world country as is the paralysis of Democrats as national political rulers claiming to be for the people but too much in the pockets of Wall Street with no energy to standup to racial injustices in effective ways as an empty campaign promise. The recent Kyle Rittenhouse court decision to acquit a White Supremacist vigilante is something you would stereotypically expect in a so called   third world country where we are taught miscarriages of justice for such violent people is expected. So, like the underdeveloped nations we Americans enjoy looking down to and patronizing with our smug media remarks and foreign charity aid, we continue to in many respects look like because we are, an underdeveloped country with the psychological mindsets of underdevelopment listed earlier but of course with our own twists and turns. The extremely rural and urban poverty. The deep problems the middle class as well as the poor is having paying the house note, being gainfully employed, and having quality food to eat and air to breath. The deep discrimination against women, especially the Non-White, the lack of decent healthcare and education of the poor, especially those who are Non-White, and the massive illiteracy of all of us which makes us so vulnerable to emotional manipulation such as who we decide to vote for even against our quality-of-life interests.

So increasingly, and tragically ironically, what I have listed as mindsets of underdevelopment in the formerly colonized Non-West is in many respects attitudes and behaviors the ex-colonized pick up and internalize as mindsets from the East and West in this information and social media digital age where emulation, too often of things which injure rather than help and empower run rampant without needed reflection, critique, and prevention. So that goes as well to explain why and how too often the ex-colonized watch and copy the xenophobia, racism, elitism, and corruption of not only Americans but also of their former European colonizers in their distorted mindsets of dominance through which they afflict their own underdevelopment.  It is why when people arrogantly point to corruption on the part of African leaders or about how African leaders do not take of their own people, my first response is a question, not to excuse but to put in proper context: where did they learn it from?

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The U.S. Wants to Turn Ethiopia Into Bosnia

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Source: Office of the Prime Minister - Ethiopia

It was earlier feared that the American hybrid war on Ethiopia aims to turn the country into Yugoslavia, which implies its full dissolution along regional lines. Arminka Helić, member of the British House of Lords and served as special adviser to Foreign Secretary William Hague from 2010 to 2014, deceitfully claimed that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed risked advancing this scenario through the Ethiopian National Defense Forces’ (ENDF) ongoing anti-terrorist operation in the northern Tigray Region in an article that she published at Politico in August titled “In Ethiopia, Echoes Of Yugoslavia”. In reality, it is those U.S.-backed foreign forces, including corrupt UN officials, that are meddling in the Horn of Africa country who are the ones pushing this outcome. PM Abiy is, in fact, counteracting their efforts to advance the Yugoslav scenario in Ethiopia.

Her article was rebutted by Ethiopia’s Ambassador to Belgium, Luxembourg, and EU institutions Hirut Zemene a few days later at the same outlet in a response titled “Ethiopia Is Not Yugoslavia”. She convincingly debunked Helić’s false comparison, chastising her for “calling for unwarranted action” on that basis. Politico is back at it again—however, this time publishing a similarly provocative piece titled “Ethiopia Is Plunging into Chaos. It’s Time for A New Dayton Peace Process”. This article is authored by Alex Rondos and Mark Medish. The former is described as having served until July 2021 as EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa while the latter served on the Dayton Peace implementation team and at the U.S. Treasury and National Security Council in the Clinton Administration. Their article reveals the intended end game for Ethiopia and deserves to be analyzed.

The U.S. no longer believes that it can formally partition Ethiopia through a hybrid war after its TPLF proxies failed to inspire other terrorist groups elsewhere across the country to support their anti-state campaign in other regions. The grand strategy objective has thus been comparatively scaled back to the de facto partition of the country through its “Bosnification”. Judging by what the Dayton Peace Process resulted in for that Balkan state, it implies a radical constitutional reform intended to grant large degrees of independence to the warring regions. In the Ethiopian context, this would likely be weaponized by pressuring Addis Ababa to devolve such powers not just to the Tigray Region but to every other one as well. The Dayton Peace Process also led to a foreign military intervention under the guise of peacekeepers and a formal UN control of the country.

Suffice it to say, the impact of this scenario on Ethiopia would be completely destabilizing and dysfunctional. It would basically divide-and-rule the country by carving out identity-centric statelets across its diverse ethno-regional checkerboard that could potentially expand to become almost countless in number, depending on how radically this process is imposed. There would almost certainly be a regime change, too, since there is no way that PM Abiy would surrender control of Ethiopia to any foreign power or entity, let alone one that has already been proven as corrupt and hostile to his country as the U.S. presently is. Furthermore, the ENDF and the patriotic population that they represent would never accept an invasion under the cover of a peacekeeping mission. Ethiopia would essentially cease to exist in any meaningful sense if this happened.

There is even more at risk than just the de facto erasure of Ethiopia from the map under that dark scenario. If one of the proudest, historically independent and most powerful countries in Africa failed to stop this “regime reboot” scheme (which is what externally provoked radical constitutional reform in the direction of “Bosnification” can be referred to in the context of Hybrid War theory), then there is no doubt that it will be replicated elsewhere across the continent through a similar hybrid war means against other rising powers like Nigeria to usher in another so-called “Scramble for Africa”. The U.S. and its allies would strategically benefit from this outcome since it would enable them to more effectively divide and rule Africa in a way that could reduce the influence of Russia, China, and other multipolar countries there across the ongoing New Cold War.

In other words, Ethiopia isn’t just defending its own sovereignty by pushing back against America’s Hybrid War, but also all of Africa’s. The US feels threatened not only by PM Abiy’s pragmatic attempts to balance between it, China, Russia, Turkey, and others in the New Cold War, but increasingly by the possibility that his government could revive the Pan-African movement in modern-day geopolitical conditions building upon Ethiopia’s historical leadership of it in the past. Since the Yugoslav scenario is no longer seriously pursued due to the ENDF’s success in containing the TPLF’s terrorist threats, the Bosnian one is now being advanced as “Plan B”. The US hopes to leverage the latest intensification of its Hybrid War on Ethiopia towards that end, but so long as the targeted country is aware of what’s being advanced, then this latest scheme also stands to fail too.

From our partner RIAC

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