During the last millennia, never ever before did the global populace ended up inside one single test tube? Observe, the commonality of the pandemic problems, nation-by-nation, city-by-city and person-by-person how simultaneously and harmoniously the sufferings spread out arousing questions, forcing new thinking on global focalism demanding new alternates for losing faith in institutions and their own governments and economic models.
Every few decades, now and then, there have been many similar shifts of continental restlessness but never ever on such an entire global scale with so many identical similarities. Ignoring this global behavior by national leaderships will become a big jolt in time. Now Covidians; pandemic experienced fighters and survivors of body bags, sufferers of isolation, quarantine, or occupational displacement replacement, and misplacement now harmoniously they are calling out…aloud.
The world may hear their callings; listening is now for the national leaderships: The global populace today is far more knowledgeable about what current political punditry capable of measuring and alternately prefers using dog-whistle rhetoric to score points on tribalism. If there are some 200 nations, some 10,000 cites, there are also some 100 national elections scheduled within the next 500 days… national leadership must demonstrate their literacy to read futurism. Identify their local teams with the right expertise to address national challenges, urgently respond with right answers, and develop clear narrative to address realities.
Here are some cold facts and some warm realities.
The New World: The post pandemic vaccinated ‘world’ would be a dramatically different world; some 50% of the workers of the world may not return. Some 50% of big and small businesses simply may never open and some 50% of “business + real estate + education + travel + consumption” models may change forever. The behavioral economical impact may linger for decades. So what will happen?
The New Economies: The Post pandemic ‘economies’ will be dramatically different; before the pandemic, in slow motion, the middle class economies the western world systematically destroyed, now current cycles making the upper gatekeepers of the cash flow many, many times stronger and the bottom feeders many, many times weaker. The wide chasms will create divides, force new thinking. So what will happen?
The New Technologies: The post pandemic ‘technology’ will morph the new world with new speed; execution and deployments in all directions, because the top layers of wealth have now all the required budgets powers and skills far more greater than what their own national leaderships can ever handle. National leaderships must demonstrate enough skills or obediently become Oligaristan and take orders. Observe how many big and small countries already trapped like this today. The future is also about global-age speed. Such global scale transformation would be comparable to when ‘horses’ were replaced by ‘trains’ but it took over a century. This time such styles of behavioral transformations will happen just one afternoon. Like a switch, either you are in or out. Humanly adjustments will create shocks strong enough to slowly crack open the mind to face the new truth.
The New Future of Work:
Observe the hyper-accelerated advancements of technologies around the world and deduce how within this decade it will easily eliminate all physical involvement of humans from daily ‘work’. The human body, physicality and muscularity, the hands, feet, pushing, lifting, moving, stuffing, all taken over by technology and thus leaving humankind all alone, segregated, isolated as an advanced specimen of unique experiences and sufferings no matter how fallible the outcome becomes but left only to ‘think’.What will happen next when the global populace becomes “thinker-gatherers”?
Occupationalism: in search of new definitions and meanings on the future of work: The centuries old 9-5 model morphing into a 24x7x365 virtually alive model. Banned, should be commuting and cubical-slavery as inhumane, a new world of efficient-productivity and respectful occupationalism arises. Is now the time to get rid of HR as a fake abstract power of pushing and channeling human bodies in bureaucratic mazes rather uplifting to entrepreneurial adventures and global-age performances? Is this time to throw away mismatch-business-titles and find real experienced tactically trained coaches and experts to reorganize business models, where superior performances to compete on global stages become the basic platform of the enterprises?
If the vaccinated world is a few years away, the normality of economies still decade away. Stop currency-printing presses as without productivity nations start looking like dominos lined up for a fall. Now survival is not money but real performances on real value creation and not value-manipulations.
Election Agendas: only smart Leaderships will create smart economies: Rejuvenation of a nation only achieved with grassroots prosperity resulting in socio-economic-cultural progress, able to strive dreams to create harmony. No, this is not a Normal Rockwell’s canvas, this is an awakening reality; where hungry for honest work for honest living and starved for respectable occupation on principles of common good, screaming in silence is the global populace. Are the national leaderships ready to hear this low frequency calling.
Unlimited printing of currencies will never save economies; It is the upskilling of citizens and reskilling of small and medium businesses and mini-micro-medium manufacturing intensely deployed to catch up the skills gaps lost during the last many decades. Only possible when all national agencies already mandated to foster economic growth reflect appreciation and equally all trade groups, associations, chambers type related bodies have the necessary skills to articulate and practice in such specialized arenas. A new global map of economy is emerging, calling new expertise.
Primarily, pandemic recovery also taught us new global-age mantra; “Constant learning, constant disruption, constant advancements, constant dialogues” All moving in simultaneous synchronization and with collaborative engagements for common good, all designed for all to grow together, hence, now new definitions urgently required;
Key Questions: Are cities and national regions ready for national mobilization of entrepreneurialism? Are national Chambers and associations in agreement on upskilling small medium enterprises? Is there a national agenda to quadruple innovative excellence and exportability? How skilled are local leaderships of agencies on such national-global deployments? How fast-track upskilling will add digital-mindedness and create quality exports centricity? How simultaneous synchronization uplifts upskill 1000 to 100,000 SME on a fast track basis? How these issues are not new funding hungry, they are execution starved, and so what is stopping? How a national umbrella created via Live Roundtable discussions and streamed to 100,000 stakeholders?
Stillness is death: How continuous disruption brings perpetual life to enterprises. How continuous optimization of self-discovery achieves new heights? How does continuous quality production open global doors on exportability?“Allow Million qualified foreign entrepreneurs to park within your nation for 5-10 years under a special full tax-free visa and stay program. Which nations have qualified dialogue on such affairs? Observe how hard, during the last two decades, nations across the world have tried incubators; today, mostly empty real estate projects. Governments and Academia were unable to create entrepreneurialism; however, the same governments created great armies. Trained to dig trenches in rain and sleep in open fields, they developed great officers, but not by drawing pictures of tanks on white boards or running around with water pistols in the classrooms. Bring in, land million entrepreneurs in your nation, and create 10 million plus jobs and new wealth in following years. Let your own institutions and frontline management learn how such economic developments created. Be bold, as the time to strategize passed now time to revolutionize has arrived”. “Excerpted from keynote lecture by Naseem Javed, Global Citizen Forum, Dubai, 2013.”
Now, reading the new trade winds: Allowmicro-small-medium enterprises a tax-free window on the first USD$5-10 million revenues in exports, this will create local jobs and bring foreign exchange. Allow National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism Protocols mandated to engage trade and exports bodies. AllowNational Scoring of entrepreneurialism to measure, differentiate talents, and separate pretenders. Allowmicro-small-medium enterprises free access to all dormant Intellectual Property, Patents rolled up due to lack of commercialization as Academic Experts on innovative technologies and related skills on free voucher programs.
The astonishing new math in commerce today: AUS$1000, investment in technology buys digital solutions, which were million dollars, a decade ago. A $1000 investment buys on global-age upskilling on export expansion that were million dollars a decade ago. A $1000 investment on virtual-events buys what took a year and cost a million dollar a decade ago. Today, any micro-small-medium-enterprise capable of remote working models can save 80% of office and bureaucratic costs and suddenly operate like a mini-multi-national with little or no additional costs.
Now, the urgency demands qualified execution; Success at times is failure management; failure is often about a lost battle, but not about a lost war, the ultimate success is not necessarily about winning a war, success more about understanding of the battlefield, as the real victory hidden outside the war.
Observe the nations of the world; are they real countries when their own constitution stays framed but not followed? Are they real nations when they have laws but no rules? Are they countries when they have national borders without any protections? Are they nations where they produce no real goods of any real value? Are they nations when they have shining economies that produce no real value creation or grassroots prosperities? Are they just open fields where people assembled seeking some latter day miracle? Are they some special grand schemed land projects serving special interests? The global populace now needs to clarify. A united and collaborative world needs new definitions of global maps and nations as the global populace seeks global common good to face the future.
Summary: Covidians are smarter as their sufferings have now influenced new global mindshare. The biggest ever loss to any nation today is ignoring untapped hidden talents of its citizenry, uplifting, upskilling and reskilling will save nations. This is an advanced intellectualism on human productivity, performances and creating real-value-creation, not to be confused with current techno-corrupt pamphlets based on crypto-economic ignoring human work over artificial intelligence and robotization. In response to such urgencies, Expothon Worldwide relentless in pursuit and authoritative in action is tabling a special “high-level-global-debate-series” via virtual events in coming months. Key players and gatekeepers from various countries, ready to highlight their talents and wisdom on such grassroots economic development frontiers should contact with some details. Save your own nations and study more on Google.
The rest is easy
Summit of Business within Portuguese-Speaking Countries
Long before the Portuguese-speaking countries wrapped up their first business summit in Simpopo, Equatorial Guinea that gathered approximately 250 government officials and corporate business leaders from Guinea Bissau, Cabo Verde and Sao Tome and Principe, Portugal, Brazil and Mozambique, it was described as a step directed at bringing sustained business development.
Some argued that the gathering historically provided the chance for immense business networking opportunities and building strategies. It additionally offers an important impetus for strengthening future corporate business collaboration among the countries.
According to the organisers, the primary goal was to explore ways to attract investments to the countries in bloc, as well as strengthening economic ties between member states and improving the business environment.
Opening the two-day summit, promoted by the Confederation of Businesspeople of the Community of Portuguese-language Countries (CPLP), President of Equatorial Guinea Teodoro Obiang, said frequent militant attacks in Cabo Delgado, in northern Mozambique, should be of concern to the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP).
“The Republic of Mozambique is the scene of aggressions perpetrated, planned and financed from outside its borders, claiming human lives, displacing populations, destroying personal and public property, and sowing terror in the north of the country,” he said.
Obiang believes that the CPLP “should not remain oblivious to this tragedy, which goes beyond the dimensions of a simple internal conflict. It is an aggression”.
He characterised it as an opportunity to identify the challenges the bloc faces and seek ways to facilitate trade between CPLP countries as well as attracting more investment. “Our wish is that the business community takes this opportunity to form a common front when it comes to facing the challenges that affect its activity. It should also make the most of its respective advantages to participate actively in promoting economic cooperation among the CPLP countries, always having as priority the member countries of our community,” the Equatorial Guinea president said.
President of Cape Verde, Jorge Carlos Fonseca, who participated in the summit virtually, advocated for the creation of customs facilities for CPLP countries within the bloc. “There is an urgent need to create joint solutions for the reciprocal protection of investments, reducing, or even eliminating, where possible, double taxation, and facilitating the circulation of public documents within our community without excessive authentication and notarisation burdens,” he urged.
President of Sao Tome and Principe, Evaristo Carvalho, spoke of the need for investments in the CPLP countries to be sustainable, especially in Equatorial Guinea, which was experiencing a boom in mineral resources. “Our appeal is to look at the country with confidence, stripped of a culture of short-termism. With thought for the country’s development, let’s seek sustainable solutions and invest in the medium and long term, he advised.
While various issues were discussed during the two days, there was particular interest in mineral exploitation, oil and gas development within the bloc. The panel session spent time analyzing widely the various dimensions and aspects of the sector.
Equatorial Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons has called for a common project of the Portuguese-language countries for gas exploration, stressing the need for a longer energy transition in some African countries. “Hydrocarbon producing countries such as Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Mozambique or Brazil and Portugal, as a major consumer, it is very important that we can work on a coordinated project at the CPLP level to be able to exploit the gas for use in our economies,” Gabriel Obiang Lima said.
“It will be increasingly difficult to get funding to develop our [oil] products because worldwide there is a great motivation to carry out the energy transition from hydrocarbons to renewable energy,” he noted.
Despite this, he said, in countries such as Equatorial Guinea and others in Africa, this transition will have to take at least another 20 years. “Only then will we be at the level of developed countries,” he said.
The Equatorial Guinean Minister was speaking at a panel with government officials from Guinea Bissau, Cabo Verde and Sao Tome and Principe, as well as representatives from Portugal, Brazil and Mozambique on the role of governments in attracting foreign investment.
Speaking at the panel session, Luís Moreira Testa from the Portugal’s Socialist Party in Parliament, explained that in the new advent of renewable energy, Portugal has the potential to move from energy consumer to producer. “Hydrocarbons will serve in the coming decades as transition fuels. Portugal is a major consumer of natural gas, mainly from Algeria, and the new generation of natural gas consumption in Europe foresees the mandatory inclusion of green hydrogen,” he said.
According Luis Testa, the pipelines that bring gas from Algeria may soon take the gas produced in Equatorial Guinea or Mozambique cut with green hydrogen produced in Portugal. “This could be a great opportunity for energy communion in the CPLP,” he said.
Cabo Verde’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, Alexandre Dias Monteiro, considered mobility within the Portuguese-speaking community as a critical factor for creating a favourable framework for business and foreign investment. “Mobility is a critical factor for contacts and exchanges between companies and businesspeople,” he said, stressing the progress made in this area in recent years, which should make it possible to sign a mobility agreement at the next summit of heads of state and government, in July in Luanda.
Guinea-Bissau’s Economy Minister, Victor Mandinga, advocated the creation of an investment promotion agency at the community level to link up with agencies in each of the countries. “This mechanism is essential to make legislation on investment more homogenous and the distribution of investment opportunities between countries more harmonised,” he said, adding that businesspeople lacked transversal information about the CPLP as a whole.
Sao Tome’s Foreign Minister, Edite Ten Jua, noted the importance of creating a climate of trust for attracting investment, particularly in terms of legal protection and tax justice, as well as simplifying administrative procedures, along with the existence of infrastructure and means of transport and communications.
President of the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries Business Confederation Salimo Abdula, speaking during the opening, urged the governments of member countries to speed up the process of creating the CPLP Community Development Bank to facilitate financing for bloc projects.
“The bank will be a tool which will support projects of small, medium or large size, thus overcoming the difficulty of access to financing, which often has a high cost in CPLP countries, making projects unfeasible,” Abdula argued.
Abdula further proposed the creation of a CPLP arbitration court, because, despite being united by the same language and economic interests, conflicts between stakeholders from different member states could arise.
“This court would make it easier to settle disputes between businesspeople in the community. At this moment, this project (the CPLP Arbitration Court) is at a very advanced stage. A team was formed that is working hard on the subject and has already produced several document proposals and prepared a questionnaire aimed at defining an ideal model for the construction of such an arbitration court,” Abdula told the gathering.
The opening of the summit coincided with World Portuguese Language Day. According to Rádio Moçambique, there is an estimated 300 million speakers spread across four continents. The first CPLP Business Confederation business summit held under the motto, “Together We Are Stronger and Move the World Forward” in Simpopo, Equatorial Guinea.
Can Sukuk Match the Growth Trajectory of Green Bonds?
As the socially responsible investing movement in fixed income began to take off a decade ago, a great deal of ink was spilled on the similarity of green bonds and Sukuk. Both products are explicitly ethical and appeal to investors’ social consciences over and above their desire for financial returns. The thesis at the time was that an ever-increasing number of investors would seek out these types of ethical investments, leading to a steep upward trajectory in demand for both green bonds and Sukuk. MICHAEL BENNETT writes.
To a certain extent, that thesis has played out. Between 2010 and 2020, the annual issuance of green bonds increased from less than US$5 billion to more than US$270 billion. They have successfully transitioned from being a highly niche product to one that has a role in the portfolios of major institutional investors across the globe. Green bonds became the product that mainstreamed socially responsible investing on the fixed income side of the capital markets.
Sukuk have also increased during that time-period, going from US$53 billion of annual issuance in 2010 to US$140 billion in 2020. While a 164% increase in annual issuance volume is impressive, it clearly lags the 5,300% growth for green bonds. This divergence in the growth trajectory of the two products can also be observed in Chart 1 that looks at annual issuance volumes between 2014 and 2020:
In absolute terms, it should come as no surprise that Sukuk volumes now trail green bonds, as there is a much larger market globally for conventional instruments than for Shariah compliant ones.
Even the most passionate supporters of Islamic finance accept that the potential market for Islamic products is only a fraction of that of their conventional comparators. However, that does not explain why, in percentage growth terms, Sukuk have fallen so far behind green bonds. Why has one product exploded while the other has made only a steady climb?
Many explanations have been offered for why Sukuk have not grown at a faster pace in recent years. These usually focus on global economic hurdles that have impacted the market (eg oil price declines, COVID-19-related slowdowns).
However, many of these same issues have impacted, to one degree or another, the conventional markets as well. In addition, some economic hurdles could reasonably be expected to increase issuance volumes (eg a decrease in oil prices could cause an oil-exporting sovereign to have greater need to tap the capital markets).
Therefore, these explanations seem insufficient to fully explain how green bonds have grown at such a faster clip than Sukuk.
I believe the reason for the difference may stem in part from the fact that the Sukuk market has simply not responded sufficiently to the socially responsible investing movement. As the remarkable growth of the green bond market proves, predictions a decade ago that socially responsible, fixed income investing was about to take off were correct.
In other words, the socially responsible investing wave did indeed come. The problem for Sukuk is the product has not found the best way to ride that wave.
Sukuk are ethical instruments. They cannot be used to finance impermissible activities like gambling, tobacco and weapons manufacturing. Also, they are structured to avoid high degrees of leverage and speculation, and therefore promote a sounder financial system.
Many investors who are motivated by ethics and feelings of social responsibility should be quite happy to add Sukuk to their portfolios, regardless of whether they are adherents of Islam.
A conventional bond has none of these built-in restrictions. Therefore, to make a conventional bond an ‘ethical investment’, additional steps must be taken, for example adding covenants to limit the potential uses of the financing. This building-in of these additional prohibitions is the genesis of green bonds and other labeled sustainable development bonds. In essence, these bonds adopt the types of restrictions on the use of proceeds that already to a certain degree exist for Sukuk.
However, the Sukuk market has not sold the standard Sukuk product as ethical. Rather, it has treated Sukuk as equivalent to a conventional bond (no better or worse from an ethical perspective), and therefore sought to develop green and socially responsible labels for certain types of Sukuk that mimic the labeling that is required to make a conventional bond ethical.
I believe such labeling of certain Sukuk can have the unfortunate impact of obscuring the ethical nature of the basic Sukuk product and, at the extreme, possibly throwing the social responsibility of most Sukuk into doubt.
In other words, if certain Sukuk are labeled ‘socially responsible Sukuk’, what does that imply about all the Sukuk that do not carry that label?
While I certainly would not advocate against green and other types of labeled Sukuk, I think the Sukuk market needs to spend more time and effort to be clear that such labeled Sukuk are simply a special use of proceeds instruments within a broader universe (ie all Sukuk) that is already ethical in nature.
Such an approach would mirror the one the World Bank takes in the conventional market. The World Bank issues green and other labeled bonds from time to time, but the priority always is to stress the ethical nature of all the issuances.
By focusing on the ethical quality of the Sukuk product itself, I believe Sukuk can best benefit from the ethical investing movement, and take its place, aside green bonds, as an ethical investing success story.
US Sanctions Against Russian Sovereign Debt: Possible Alternatives
The US and the EU have imposed new sanctions against Russia because of the so-called “Navalny case”. The European Union has activated the human rights sanctions mechanism approved by the EU Council in December 2020. On March 2, the EU added four Russian security officials to its sanctions list. The sanctions include a ban on entry to the EU, an assets freeze in the EU and a ban on economic transactions with persons involved in the lists. However, such officials are unlikely to have assets in the EU. Even if they exist, such assets are not significant for the Russian economy. The sanctions were introduced as a reaction to the arrest and then imprisonment of Alexei Navalny, while restrictions on the topic of the alleged poisoning were introduced back in October 2020. At the time, six high-ranking Russian officials and the Research Institute of Organic Chemistry and Technologies were subject to the restrictions. Such sanctions have zero impact on the Russian economy.
Unlike the EU, the US has refrained from imposing sanctions following the alleged poisoning of the politician last year. However, on March 2, they were introduced, both in connection with the poisoning and in connection with his subsequent arrest. That is, the topics of the use of weapons of mass destruction and human rights violations were combined. The blocking sanctions targeted seven Russian officials who were already affected by EU sanctions, as well as three research institutes. Trade sanctions were imposed against 14 companies. US government agencies have been prohibited from lending to Russia and a ban was introduced on the supply of weapons and on the provision of US financial assistance. These measures have no impact on the economy. These companies are not the backbone of the economy, Russia does not need US help, it does not buy weapons from the United States, and it does not take loans from US government agencies.
However, the new US sanctions are still fraught with uncertainty. The key question is whether the United States is imposing restrictions on Russian sovereign debt obligations. Such a measure could cause more serious damage and have an impact on the world markets.
The prospect of sanctions against Russian government bonds is related to the specifics of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991. Properly it is used as a legal basis for the imposition of sanctions in the event that a country uses chemical weapons (in the US and the EU, it is assumed that Navalny was poisoned with a substance from the Novichok group). The CBW Law envisages the imposition of sanctions in two stages. On March 2, 2021, the first stage was implemented (a ban on aid, military supplies and loans from government agencies). If, within three months after the first stage, the President does not provide Congress with evidence that the target country has not abandoned the use of CBW and has not given reliable guarantees of their non-use in the future, then the second stage of sanctions will be introduced. It is important to note here that guarantees of non-use should be determined by UN inspections or those provided by another international organisation. Obviously, Russia will not give such guarantees and will not allow any inspections. Moreover, according to the statements of the Russian authorities, Russian chemical weapons were destroyed long ago. In other words, the second round of sanctions is inevitable. The CBW Law obliges the US President to impose at least three of the six types of sanctions. The most unpleasant of these is the ban on American banks from lending to the Russian government.
There has already been a precedent for using CBW against Russia. The sanctions were imposed in connection with the Skripals case. In 2018, the first stage was carried out, and in 2019 — the second. It was secured by Donald Trump’s executive order No. 13883. The decree reflected two types of sanctions — a ban on lending to the Russian government and blocking aid through the IMF. Then trade restrictions were added. If the last two measures were symbolic, then the ban on lending potentially had more serious consequences. However, this measure was applied in an extremely limited manner. The ban applied only to Russian government bonds denominated in foreign currencies, while most of them are denominated in rubles. The sanctions also did not affect the debt of Russian state-owned companies.
In general, the issue of sanctions against Russia’s sovereign debt has been raised many times on other occasions. In 2017, within the framework of Art. 242 of PL 115-44 CAATSA, Congress ordered the US Treasury to give an opinion on the appropriateness of such sanctions. Officials noted in their report that such sanctions would hurt Russia, but were also fraught with market fluctuations and costs for American investors. Such sanctions have repeatedly been proposed in sanction bills, including the most famous ones — DASKA and DETER. However, they have never been passed into law. In 2019, the State Department criticised DASKA.
The forthcoming second round of sanctions over the Navalny case will again raise the issue of restrictions on Russian sovereign debt. Two alternatives are possible. The first is the preservation of the existing restrictions already adopted by Trump in 2019, or their cosmetic expansion. The second is a more radical tightening, including bonds denominated in rubles. The second alternative cannot be ruled out, especially if there is another escalation in the Navalny case. If the status quo is maintained, the first option is most likely.
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