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Will the enduring Proxy-war be ever ended in Afghanistan?

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Abstract: this paper long-story-short explains a four-decade of Afghan conflict, the causes and effects of the ongoing proxy war in passage of the modern history of the country. Furthermore, this paper elucidates roles and conducts of the major powers in the conflict; it unveils their national security priorities as well, along with their rivalry and disputable foreign policy objectives. The paper also explicates whether peace and stability is achievable or not. Finally, it draws a tragic and upsetting conclusion, which is a black eye not only for the Afghan leadership but also for the global players. Despite no perception of any potential peace in Afghanistan, this paper by no accounts encourages an exodus of Afghan Nation.

 D-day in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is overwhelmingly engulfed and hampered by proxy-war roughly for 4 decades, and the country has become a chessboard not only for super powers but also for regional countries and beyond. The cumulative toll of the war on the country and its people is massive.The conflict between Soviet Union-India proxies and Pakistan-US proxies just began, when Sardar Muhammad Daoud Khan took an oath as Afghanistan’s first president in 1973. In the course of his tenure, ISI-CIA backed warlord Gulbudin Hikmatyar launched his first armed face off in the eastern Afghanistan, and meantime the KGB sponsored Marionettes and MSS puppets hurled their surge in the whole country.

As a result, pro-Soviet proxies toppled Daoud Khan`s presidency thru a military coup in 1978, which paved the way for the Red-army incursion. In the decade subsequent the Soviet invasion in 1979, 1.5million Afghans lost their lives, another million were wounded and disabled, 6.2 million took refuge either in Pakistan, Iran and the rest of the world, and 2.2 million more were internally displaced. The fiscal damage caused by invaders during this period approximated around $644.8 billion.  United States, China, Pakistan, Iran as well asArab countries initiated anti-Soviet front, and began to harbor, train, and sponsor and arm their proxies in order to defy pro-Soviet proxies. The armed strife lasted a decade and the so-called freedom fighters/jihadi terrorists caroled ´´war until the end of occupation´´. Thus, the era of invasion dramatically came to an end in 1989, but the proxy war continued, and the self-styled freedom fighter/jihadi terrorists again chanted ´´ war until the end of communist regime´´.

In 1992, the communist led government was ousted, following the super powers (Soviet Union and the United States) total withdrawal from the region.  Awkwardly, the proxy war interred into the new phase and the conflict warmed up among Indian, Iranian, Pakistani and Saudi proxies.

Iran and India supported the Northern Alliance, whereas Pakistan and Saudi Arabia backed Hikmatyar (1992-1996), in the aftermath of such a skirmish capital of the country was effusively ruined, and a 100 thousand innocent Afghans killed and 1000s either injured or disabled, thousands internally displaced and fled to rest of the world.  As Pakistan-Saudi Arabia came short to topple, the northern alliance led government, Pakistan and its Arab and western allies originated Taliban movement in 1994.

In 1996, Taliban movement was able to overthrow the Northern Alliance leadership and conquered two-third of the country, and ruled Afghanistan barbarically, brutally and mercilessly. Hence, Iran, India and Russia instigated counter-measures, called Resistance Front to fight back the Taliban Movement and the proxy war sustained until 2001.

In 2001, the 9 11 phenomena occurred in the US, and the American administration launched a crusade to bring to justice, who took American lives. Taliban movement, which harbored Usama Bin Laden the master-mind of the 9 11 incidence, rebuffed to hand over him to Washington, accordingly, the American Administration commenced a full-scale war against Taliban to get rid of the alleged Islamic Emirate, which ended up with American occupation.

America’s two-decade-long occupation, beginning in 2001, which still goes on resulted the death of 3.500 coalition forces and the loss of 150.000 Afghan civilian and military personnel, in order to achieve purported “Nation Building” and “Democratization”. The occupiers endeavored to bring to power their puppets, via phony democratic process in hope of using Afghan territory for their strategic purposes.

In 2002, Pakistan, China along with some Arab monarchies started to regroup Taliban movement and other proxies to fight pro-American and pro-Indian Kabul regime, due to the strategic divergence with the US, Russia and Iran have also jumped in, to support Taliban’s resurgence ironically with American taxpayers money. The insurgents (proxies) chanted again “the war until the end of foreign/American occupation”.

In 2020, some hoodwinked and naïve policy makers have advised Donald Trump the American potentate to draw down the combat forces, and open negation in order to reach an agreement with Taliban. The settlement was made between the US and the insurrectionaries, the US started withdrawing, expecting that peace will prevail in Afghanistan. Seemingly, peace will not carry the day, since the rebels call for war until dethroning Ashraf Ghani.

Now the question is whether the proxy war will be ended anytime in the future, in other words whether peace and stability is achievable. The experts stipulate (for)an interim-government to integrate Taliban in the political system of the country. Some others enjoin additional approaches to be employed to transform the conflict, including the agreement to rule the country in accordance with a viable model, such as the Swiss model, whereby some representatives choose a leader for a limited time based on performance. Nevertheless, these approaches do not seem to be convincing and substantial, even if all at odds factions reach a comprehensive settlement to form a broad-based government, peace and stability will not be achieved, and the proxy war will be sustained.

Implications of global players’ divergence

In order to answer the above said question, we have to find out the root cause of the conflict, to the best of my knowledge; the Afghan proxy war is deeply ingrained in and intertwined with regional and trans-national disputes, therefore it makes sense to look into each conflictual issues one by one.

Indo-Pakistan dispute

Subsequent the end of British rule in 1947, British-India was divided into two separate nations, India and Pakistan, since then the countries have fought a series of conventional wars, mainly over the region of Kashmir, of which possession has been claimed by the countries. The partitioned, which was based on Hindu and Muslim majorities, caused mass migration and clashes, resulted hostility, violence and bloodshed. Consequently, the first Indo-Pak war took place in October 1947, following assault on Kashmir by Pakistan’s tribal forces. The war lasted roughly two years, which ended up with ceasefire and provisionary demarcation –now called the line of Control.

In 1965, the second Indo-Pak war occurred due to a series of cross-border clashes. The clashes turn to a full-scale war, when Pakistani soldiers crossed the line of control deep into the Indian administered Kashmir in search of starting insurgency against Indian army. The war came to an end, when officials of both countries agreed upon acknowledging peaceful vows.  

A third Indo-Pak war erupted, when Pakistan was further divided into two parts Eastern and

Western Pakistan. As a result, both East and West Pakistan began to tussle, due to the significant

Indian role in the conflict, eastern Pakistani soldiers Surrendered to Indian Army and Western      Pakistan got independence, which now called Bangladesh. In 1987, a nation-wide election took place in India and in Indian administered Kashmir, but the so-called Islamic movements did not acknowledge the result of the election, which eventuated an armed standoff against the Indian rule in Kashmir. Kashmir was acutely polarized, some of the inhabitants demanded independence from India, while the others sought to be integrated with Pakistan. Subsequently, armed résistance broke out, since then Pakistan’s ISI start to train, finance, shelter and sponsor the insurgent groups to fight Indian Defense forces, which has continued until here and now.

Sino-Indian row

Apart from border dispute, which occasioned a Sino-Indian war in 1962, China and India are warming up to contain one another; China has kicked off Belt and Road Initiative. This initiative (BRI) puts China at the heart of the new Pan-Eurasian economic order; the effort has drawn commitments from over 60 countries, and international organizations, and has been described as China’s project of the century.

The massive undertaking is divided into two main components: the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. The “Belt” is a series of overland routes that will collectively connect China with Western Europe through the resource-rich countries of Central Asia. The “Road,” counter intuitively, refers to a dizzying sea route that flows around Southeast and South Asia, through Africa, and into the Mediterranean.

In counter measures, India has a continent-crossing plan of Washington-Tokyo oriented (South-Central Asia policy) which is called North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC); the objective is to link India with Central Asia, Caucasus and Europe thru Iran (if Iran is aligned with Washington) and possibly Afghanistan. India has been trying to interweave itself deeper within the infrastructural and economic fabric of Eurasia.

The NSTC is a multimodal trade corridor which extends from India to Caucasus, linking the India Ocean and Persian Gulf to Caspian Sea, which lies from Jawaharlal Nehru and Kandla port in western India to the port of Bandar Abbas in Iran, then go road and rail north thru Baku to the Caucasus and beyond.

The second route goes along the eastern side of the Caspian Sea, connecting the new Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway to amalgamate with the North-South Transnational Corridor.

The third route linking India with Chabahar port of Iran then goes to Afghanistan extends to Central Asia, which is currently suspended due to Washington’s mounting pressure to give it up if not India, will face sanctions. India is a big driver of enhancements to Iran’s Chabahar port. The country (India) is also backing a 218-kilometer road connecting the heart of Afghanistan with a border to Iran, the Kaladan multimodal project in Myanmar, the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR), which goes all the way from Dhaka to Istanbul, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and, possibly, developing Trincomalee port in Sri Lanka as well as Delhi-Kabul Air Corridor in order to bypass and debase Beijing oriented Pakistani Corridor.

In the face of American drawdown, there are some speculations India is considering to deploy around 15 thousand troops to Afghanistan to deter threats posed by China and Pakistan and to safeguard its strategic projects in the region. Meanwhile India has consolidated its effort to support Afghan security forces in general and sponsor the Afghan intelligence Networks in particular. As a result of recent  joint actions,  Afghan intelligence Agency (NDS) and Indian intelligence organizations ( IB, RAW, DIA and the inter-service Joint Cipher Bureau),  the Afghan counter intelligence department was able to crack down the active and sleeping cells of Chinese MSS in the capital of Afghanistan.

Meantime India and China are pushing the blame game accusing one another for aggressive actions at the border points, which revitalize the Sino-Indian border dispute.

The sovereignty over two large and various smaller separated pieces of territory have been contested between China and India. The westernmost, Aksai Chin, is claimed by India as part of Jammu and Kashmir and region of Ladakh but controlled and administered as part of Chinese autonomous region of Xinjiang. The other large disputed territory, the easternmost, lies south of the McMahon Line.

It was referred to as the North East Frontier Agency, and is now called Arunachal Pradesh. The McMahon line was part of 1914 Simla Convention between British-India and Tibet an agreement rejected by China which caused Sino-Indian war in 1962. The border dispute was in somehow resolved in 1996 as part of Confidence-Building measures. 

But tension recently has risen as India has stationed sophisticated military hardware at the border, namely after receiving green signals from Washington and Tokyo, meanwhile India accuses China for acts of aggression at border, India claims, that China has ordered its military unites to be positioned at the crossing line, therefore India has taken reactionary steps.

Iran-Saudi Arabia dispute

The Saudi-Iran dispute originated, when widespread riots and rattles erupted in Iran, which put Iranian at armed standoff. As aresult, the Iranian kingdom was toppled, and the King (shah) fled, and there was a power vacuum in the country in 1979. Thus, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini rushed to lead the mutiny, in order to fill the gap. He brought a strategic shift to the Iranian foreign policy, so that he tried to reestablish Iran as a regional power based on Shia Islam to counter-weight Sunni Islam. Although Iran had been a Shia country, but had had a secular regime and Shia Islam had not been promoted as state religion.  Khomeini’s strategic foreign policy shift  was perceived as warmongering by the Sunni Muslim world, and especially by Saudi Arabia, which has customarily declared itself as leader of the Islamic world. Moreover, the country is home for two holiest places –Mecca and Medina—, Saudi Arabia is the Guardian, and responsible to protect them reach out their role in the entire globe especially within the Islamic world. Therefore, millions of Muslim take part at pilgrimage each year, which has added to the importance of Saudi Kingdom as an advocate of Sunni Islam.

On top of geo-political and geo-strategic discrepancy that the Kingdom has with Iran, Saudi Arabia arranges Sunni Islam as fundamental of its foreign policy object, whereas Iran’s forward policy for the region based on the tents of Shia Islam, hence there is divergence of policy objectives, which challenge and contradict each other.  In addition, the countries are oil-rich and overflowed with petrodollars to export their dogmas to the rest of Islamic world, thru both conventional and unconventional measures.

Sino-Russian and USA animosity

Despite significant divergence between China and Russia in both regional and international arena, the countries has striven to expand their cooperation in several directions namely in diplomatic, political and defense realms. China and Russia consider the US as a challenge to the national security of both Beijing and Moscow. The countries are bearing in mind that alignment between Moscow and Beijing is thought to be the best possible measure to deter US hegemonic policy.  Russia and China are working together to the fill the gaps of their military capability, accelerating their technological innovations, supplementing each other’s defense competency to emasculate US global leadership, challenging US dominance in strategic regions as well.

Their joint naval drills are supposed to be projected as a counter-measure to minimize the US capability, and to defy US regional scenario. Furthermore, the countries accelerate their cooperation to erode US military advantages. In order to enhance their efforts, Russia provides China with advanced weapons to remove the US from their backyards. Their joint efforts have put America under immense pressure to reconsider its defense budget and its alleged commitments to advocate a free and open Indo-Pacific.  The countries are doing their best to counter American Democratic measure in form of “color revolutions”, substantiating each other to defend their interests in multidimensional environments, creating norms around cyber and internet sovereignty, and augmenting anti-American elements even radical Islamists to gain the power and expand their territorial control. They legitimize each other’s conducts to persuade swing states to abandon the US.

Moscow and Beijing consolidating their efforts to inter to the new spaces more likely Artificial Intelligence, they strive to offer diverse digital system and other technologies. They also joined hands to disqualify American financial measures in the global economic arena especially bypass the US sanctions and minimize the US ability in financial realm  as part of the US foreign policy objective.

They have long before tried to de-dollarize the world finical system, which will in turn curtail the US capability in the area of export control. Nonetheless, the US has launched counter measures to limit Sino-Russia cooperation and the threats they pose to Washington. In response to Sino-Russian partnership, the US stationed and installed vigilant technologies all around the countries to curb their liabilities. Additionally, in response to the Sino-Russian joint-partnership, the US adopted a new maritime strategy in December 2020 the three maritime services of the US military – the US Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. The strategy elucidates both China and Russia as resolute adversaries, who pose a long-term strategic threat to the national security of the US in the global arena particularly in Indo-pacific domain. In comparison to the old strategies, the new strategy presses on the importance of sea control, which ascribes the possibility of armed conflict with at maritime level. Moreover, the strategy signifies the importance of Coastguard as a part of main element to deter multidimensional threats posed by Sino-Russia. The new strategy also implies and stress on building partnerships and cooperation with other countries to defend the US global perspective.  It clarifies as well that current US defense capability is not sufficient. Thus, the maritime forces ought to be modernized in order to counter Sino-Russia maritime strategy. According to the new strategy the size and shape will boldly change to answer the current and future challenges.

Sino-Russia rivalry

China and Russia enmity lays back to the Chinese Eastern Railway (CER) conflict took place in 1929 between Soviet Union and China, which was the bloodiest conflict of its time. Joseph Stalin played a significant role to neutralize Chinese efforts to recapture the Railway. In order to attain its goals China used both conventional and asymmetric approaches to eliminate Soviet Union control over the Railway. Obtaining green signals from Japan, Stalin forcefully trespassed the region and pushed back Chinese armed forces, which was connoted as a sign of aggression, and ended up with border dispute. Throughout, the history both countries unsuccessfully endeavored to find a peaceful and acceptable solution to the border conflict. Consequently, in 2003 Russia and China signed an agreement to resolve the border dispute. In 2005, Moscow and Beijing finalized the border issue, nevertheless, Chinese leadership still claims that Vladivostok Russia’s Fareast city is part of Chinese territory, besides Beijing asserts that Russia has annexed 350.000 square mile of Chinese territory. Nonetheless, due to American Air, Land and sea superiority, in global level and particularly in Indo-pacific, Asian and African regions, which is considered as threat to the national security of China and Russia. Therefore, Moscow and Beijing agreed upon to build up partnership and cooperation along with filling each other’s gaps in term of defense, aerial, sea and digital technologies, to rule out American Maritime strategic challenges. In addition, kick out the US military forces from their back yards. It is worthwhile to note Sino-Russian cooperation or partnership is not strategic, because is not built on natural basis, rather it instituted on a tactical measure to deter American aggression. It is very conventional term that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, which means Beijing and Moscow have a common enemy “the United States”. Therefore, they disregard their border dispute for the time being, which will definitely be brushed up, when the US is out of the race in the global arena.

According to the management criteria, partnership or cooperation is based on three terms; short term, midterm and long term in other word operational, tactical and strategic, taking in to account the mentioned terminologies the Sino-Russia partnership is operational and tactical then to be strategic/long-term. While China has been shifting its soft strategic measures, the country tries to apply hard power in Central Asia “Russia’s back yard”.  Beijing considers stationing military forces in the region to defend the country’s Belt and Road initiative extended to the region. China wants to safeguard its geo-economic and geo-political objectives thru future military installations in Central Asia. Therefore, Beijing’s motives are irreconcilable with the foreign policy objectives of Moocow for the region, because China pursues to advance trans-Eurasian transportation corridor in order to bypass Russia. Furthermore, China recently built an airport in Xining-Uyghur autonomous district close to Afghan and Tajikistan borders, which is the first airport of such kind in the mountainous area of Badakhshan. China’s initiative in this form, offers Beijing enjoying upper hand to get hold on Natural resources of the disputed region. The country undertook to build extra 25 airports in the region in order to expand its military buildup.  Hence, Russia reconsiders its partnership with China, the balance between Beijing and Moscow is changing in the region.

In addition, Sino-Russian partnership is depended on China’s commitment to full carbon neutrality by 2060. The Beijing will reduce consumption of all fossil fuels, including natural gas, which will definitely play a significant role in future cooperation and partnership between Moscow and Beijing.

China has recently made public that the country will almost be carbon neutral in 40 years; means the country will reduce 65% of its oil consumption and 75% of its natural gas consumption. These assertions will disqualify forthcoming efforts to run a mega-pipeline “Power of Siberia-2” in order to pump Russian natural gas to China. In order to minimize its dependency on Russian Natural Gas, China has diversified its efforts to import natural gas from centrals Asian countries. China made a technological breakthrough in domestic natural gas production, which will in turn reduce Chinese dependency on Russia. In couple of decades, Russia will totally lose its fuel and gas advantages to leverage China. Between 2050.2060, China will independently handle its energy needs, and develop its defense, maritime and digital technology including artificial intelligence. China will increase its defense budget up to 1 trillion dollars. Until 2060, the US will completely be out as a major element of world order.So there would be no need for Russian cooperation, China alone would be in a position to police the world and Russia will become Beijing’s number one geo-political enemy.   

Turkish and Indo-Greek-Saudi potential conflict

Although Greece and India are separated by great geo-political distance, the countries cooperate and collaborate on many issues, and work closely to deepen and further, expand their bilateral ties, since Turkey pledged to harbor, train, and sponsor and arm Kashmiri separatist jihadi terrorist groups under the auspices of Pakistani ISI. The recent strategic developments have highlighted semi-dormant areas of common Indo-Greek security interests and concerns. The incentive for such a convergence between India and Greece caused by the hastily growing strategic cooperation between Turkey and Pakistan to utilize jihadi terrorism as a tactic to promote their foreign policy objectives, which occasions hypothetically risky destabilization potentialities in the eastern Mediterranean and South Asia.  From now on, it is clear that Erdogan’s Turkey is an obvious threat not only to Mediterranean, but also to South Asia and even to global peace and security. The Turku-Pakistani alignment has materialized a distinct threat to both Athens and New Delhi making Indo-Greek strategic cooperation a natural outcome of desire of both countries to secure and foster their strategic interests. Pak-Turku axis made Saudi the strategic ally of Pakistan during cold war and thereupon withdraw economic and strategic sponsorship, and join Indo-Greek alliance. Since then the countries even added Sudan exploring how to strengthen multilateral security cooperation with other states that share similar concern about Turku-Pakistani flexing their muscles in the Mediterranean, red sea and Indo-pacific region and South Asia. The partnership among Greece, India, Saudi Arabia and Sudan put immense pressure on the US to make Turkey give in the preplanned sale of T129 Atak Helicopters to Pakistan, because American technology is part of the aircraft design, the Turkish company selling the helicopters must first secure the US export licenses before delivery can take place.

Indo-Russian Split

New Delhi and Moscow have been enjoying fruitful bilateral relations since dozens of decades almost in all occupations, this relationship meaningfully turned to a strategic cooperation in 2000, since then the countries have been holding annual dialogue to further bilateral relations. For the first time, from the time when, the strategic cooperation emerged, Moscow called off the annual summit, initially due to Delhi’s participation in the Indo-Pacific initiative and Quad, whereby the country is more inclined towards the US hub in the region, which could assumingly pose a threat to the alleged Sino-Russian strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Furthermore, the Ladakh Standoff between China and India made Moscow choose to gradient towards Beijing, although the head of the Carnegie Moscow Center Dmitri Terin proclaims that Russia will not choose between Delhi and Beijing, while Russia looks at the world differently. In addition, it is in Moscow’s interest to encourage a multipolar region in which several powerful axes exist he added. Despite India is a sales market for Russian products especially military ones, and the country’s export to India reaches 8 Billion USD. Alternatively, Sino-Russian bilateral trade had crossed $110 Billion, China is a huge sales market for Russian energy, agricultural and military products, and China’s share increased to 18 percent since 2013, which was 16 percent thereupon.

China even overtook Germany to become Russia’s largest trade partner. Therefore, Moscow should choose between New Delhi and Beijing, so Russia chose China rather than India. Hence, India has no other choice, but setting up a strategic partnership with the United States and its allies. Consequently, the alignment between China and Russia, on the other hand cooperation between India and the US will widen the gap between Moscow and New Delhi, which will definitely have adversarial implication for the entire region.  

Conclusion: in accordance with the analysis, the proxy war may last 100 plus years, and the countries will keep the ongoing war taking place in Afghanistan. They have chosen Afghanistan, since the country is primarily, no man’s land and its inhabitants are cheap and sucker to be taken on board, hired and utilized as fodder in favor of any local, national, regional and trans-national state and non-state actors or institutions.

Promoting their foreign policy objectives thru Afghanistan serves more or less to avoid direct confrontation among rival countries. Imagine once the war or direct confrontation takes place between India and Pakistan, Saudi and Iran, Russia and China or the US and China, what may happen needless to say, devastation of the entire region. Having had both tactical and strategic weapons, their application definitely jeopardizes global peace and security. Therefore, they have preferred to launch and lengthen the Afghan proxy war, while they have vested interest and stake in maintaining the status qua in order to uphold their foreign policy objectives. Unfortunately, the underdogs and scapegoats of this bloody war are only Afghans, thus I hesitate to say that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires; rather it is the graveyard of Afghans themselves. 

Ajmal Sohail is Co-founder and Co-president of Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany and he is National Security and counter terrorism analyst. He is active member of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)as well.

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Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Taliban and the Modus Operandi of Jihadi Terrorism in Africa

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According to sources, the violence in the Southern African country of Mozambique is on the rise and there is a possibility that the war could spread from Mozambique to (South Africa) as well as Zimbabwe and Botswana.

In addition, Islamic militants in Mozambique want to establish ties with other foreign Islamic militants, Mozambique’s al-Shabab militant group has traveled to Somalia to establish ties with the al-Shabab Islamist group.

To strengthen the group, smugglers from Tanzania also smuggle weapons into the area, and villages in Mozambique near the border between Tanzania and Mozambique have been burned to the ground to spread terror. And young people from South Africa are also flocking to Mozambique to join al-Shabab and ISIS.

 In addition, ISIS fighters from the Democratic Republic of Congo have been sent to Mozambique. According to sources, the global heroin market has heated up with the advent of the Taliban government in Afghanistan, and heroin is smuggled from Afghanistan to Mozambique and from Mozambique to South Africa, where it is used to smuggle drugs and gems into Europe and the United States.

According to source, the visit of the Taliban representative showed that the Taliban wanted to strengthen ties with Al Shabaab in Somalia, But Hazrat Musa was originally meeting with insurgents who smuggled drugs from Afghanistan to North Mozambique and then from northern Mozambique to South Africa, where most of the heroin was smuggled, then smuggled to Europe and America.

According to an accurate report, the Taliban from Afghanistan, through members of Haji Bashar’s family, established links with al-Shabab in Mozambique, Because Haji Bashar’s cousins ​​and Haji Bashar’s own family members are involved with all the international smugglers and terrorist groups. Russian weapons and Afghan heroin reach North Mozambique via Iran to North Mozambique and then on to South Africa and some of the Heroin are given to Islamic militants in the Democratic Republic of Congo for Gold and diamonds, to use them on young children to destroy their minds.

ISIS leader in Congo Sika Musa Bluko and ISIS leader and activist Abu Yasser in Mozambique have partnered with Haji Bashar, a former Taliban financier in Afghanistan, to smuggle heroin and human organs, The two are still linked to key Taliban leaders. Abdul Rahman Shah Agha from the Taliban, a resident of Kandahar province and with members of Haji Bashar’s family smuggled heroin from Maiwand district to Iran, And Ahmad Reza, a notorious smuggler, smuggled heroin and weapons from Iran to northern Mozambique, From there, Musa and Abu Yathir are responsible for all the heroin and weapons.

Fighting has intensified in Mozambique since the Ukrainian invasion, and Iran has stepped up arms smuggling from Afghanistan, in addition to drug trafficking, in exchange for gems, gold and cash. To this end, the process of distributing weapons to young people in South Africa has been intensified so that they can fight in Mozambique and South Africa on the pretext of religion and ethnicity.

According to sources, the ISIS group fighting in Syria is also in contact with Ansar al-Sunnah and Madinat al-Tawhid wal-Mujahideen in Africa. Large quantities of weapons from Syria also reach these areas to intensify the war, and private traders take advantage of this situation to smuggle precious stones from Africa and then sell them legally, Not only the businessmen but also the army chiefs in the area are involved in making a lot of money. Mozambique’s military is in a crisis, and innocent South African children are being killed in religious and ethnic wars.

Disclaimer: The views expressed within Modern Diplomacy are solely those of the authors in their private capacity and do not in any way represent or reflect the views of the Modern Diplomacy, its Advisory and Editorial Boards, Sponsors, Partners, or Affiliates.

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The penetration tactics of the CIA and the Israeli Mossad and the Chinese experience

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What occupied me the most during the last period after the control of the American Central Intelligence Agency and the Israeli Mossad on a number of those around me, including: professors, colleagues and relatives, was to spread the story of my madness everywhere, despite my severe isolation from everyone, due to my strict academic and analytical intelligence nature, which completely compels me to move away about all aspects of luxury or racing to get to know others for purely security reasons, related to my personal safety, for being targeted by the Israeli Mossad and the American Central Intelligence for many years, which made me very sorry, for the decline of morals of some, and their selling of their conscience and morals at any price for a few pounds will end  It is implemented quickly, but it has caused harm to a person who was looking for restoring the dignity and prestige of the Arabs and helping them dismantle all the American and Israeli spy networks in the Middle East and the region, as well as preparing new generations capable of challenging and imposing and dictating their conditions on everyone with strictness and firmness. But, in the midst of this struggle, I was shocked by the morals of many around me, who sold and betrayed at a cheap price.

   Therefore, the previous period was one of the most important periods of my entire life, for my intellectual work and my intelligence analytical efforts as a proactive intelligence analyst, and a future theorist that draws the shape of the foreseeable future and maps of the modern world, and reshapes the alliances of the new world, after the disintegration of the features of American and Israeli hegemony, with the rise of other great, regional and international powers, such as: China and others, to help all Arabs and developing peoples to fully challenge American hegemony, and their constant attempt to impose their conditions on us, and even formal plans to encourage Arabs and the sons of Arab and developing peoples to penetrate the American depth itself, by ending that American hegemony over them, by dismantling all of the American espionage networks in Egypt, the region and even the world, with entering the depth of the American Central Intelligence Agency and wandering in the building of the Israeli Mossad, to obtain all the information we want to know, enabling us to challenge America as a superpower and force it to submit to our conditions and dictate our conditions to it and to the Israelis themselves, after dismantling the Israeli Mossad device itself from the inside after its penetration.

  Through my diligent observations, and my psychological and psychological studies of the mentalities and personalities of a number of American and Israeli diplomats, and my search for any previous recorded conversations of American and Israeli intelligence men, I noticed very carefully the extent of the state of confusion and disrespect for the policies of their countries, and their severe prejudice against them, which caught me in the eye of an intelligence expert examining the entire situation. I came to a genius conclusion, according to which the easiest personalities to recruit at any price are American and Israeli diplomats and their military and general intelligence men, given the nature of the pressures and the enormous suffering they face, as well as their complete dissatisfaction with the policies of their countries and their intelligence services with their current formations. This is perhaps what I played during the last period, by following up on all the activities of the American and Israeli diplomats that I reached, and my strict follow-up to everything that falls under my eyes in terms of conversations by their intelligence men to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of their personalities, and to write and record that on an ongoing basis, to identify the most prominent commonalities between them, tracking and knowing those individual differences, which enabled their intelligence and diplomatic services to seek help from them during previous periods.  It reached a maximum result, which is the possibility of completely subjugating all American and Israeli diplomats and their intelligence men in favor of other intelligence services, who are hostile, proud and admirable at the same time, as they view China and Russia, their archenemy.  Hence, I set out to draw the features of the approach and decipher the symbols and codes of the relationship between them and their current intelligence services, from intermittent communication or complete separation, followed by a defining stage of indifference or ignoring the question.  Because through that particular detail and detail, I can penetrate into their depths intelligence, security and psychologically, and then ensure control over them, just as they do with me and those around me, to ensure control over me, considering that I am one of the most prominent proactive intelligence analytical mindsets in the world, as well as my frightening personality for them  To my closeness to the countries of China and Russia and their friends alike.

 By analogy with the previous point about the possibility of recruiting their intelligence men and diplomats and subjecting them to our conditions – which I tried to draw the attention of the countries of China and Russia to – China has succeeded in achieving an unprecedented penetration of the files of all American and Israeli diplomats and intelligence men alike.  The Chinese helped in this, and their absolute and unparalleled success in penetrating the depth of files belonging to the Israeli Mossad and all its employees or dealers, which led to the disclosure of the data of tens of thousands of Mossad employees, the Shin Bet security service, the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, and the Israeli Institute  For biological research, the Israeli military forces, which include: the names of the most prominent pilots, intelligence personnel, members of the special forces, and nuclear scientists in Israel. Israel fears that many parties will benefit from this information, such as: Iranian intelligence, Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as many other intelligence agencies, which do not maintain friendly relations with Israel.

  The Chinese and Russian intelligence are constantly trying to obtain all the information, documents, documents and speeches delivered at all Israeli conferences, or in which Israel was an original party or a participant.  Where the most serious issue for the Israelis is related to the readiness of the Arab armies and defense ministries at the present time, to form a “joint military defense alliance between Israel and the Arabs to fight Iran”, which I tried to draw the attention of the Chinese to, and resulted in China forming a multilateral action platform to bring about a kind of dialogue and rapprochement between the Arab Gulf and Iran, away from the policies of Israeli and American provocation, and their tireless attempt to ignite and inflame the situation in the region against Iran as an ally of China and Russia, in favor of Israeli rapprochement with the Gulf states and all.

  The Mossad, and other Israeli intelligence and security services, rely on these data, which are owned by the (Israeli Ministry of Interior), in order to recruit new members, whether inside or outside Israel itself.  The Israeli intelligence, especially the Mossad, is also working on using false or pseudonymous identities to carry out all its security operations, whether it is to carry out surveillance and gather information, to infiltrate certain places, or to purchase sensitive equipment.

  The leaking of such information to China or others is disastrous for the Israeli intelligence and the Mossad, because this leads to the possibility of linking it to activities that take place abroad under false Israeli or foreign identities.  It is also possible that the leakage of that sensitive information that China has penetrated may lead to thwarting many Israeli security operations abroad or lead to the arrest of Mossad agents through foreign intelligence agencies. Above all, by verifying these leaked Israeli intelligence data, it is possible to ascertain the living persons and the deceased personalities whose identities are used by the Israeli Mossad in secret missions to conceal the true identity of the Israeli agent entrusted with carrying out a mission.

  What is most important to me is China’s follow-up and targeting of all activities and operations of the Israeli Mossad and its close follow-up of all Arab students studying in the defense and military industries abroad, and its follow-up by the Israeli Mossad elements since their first university studies, until the start of their graduation and the end of their studies and then their travel to their homelands.  This is what China has learned well through many of its collaborators from countries and individuals, to obtain a lot of sensitive information that the Israeli Mossad elements are trying to access and identify, then turn it into several intelligence reports in files, and track Mossad agents responsible for following up on defense industry students and researchers.  And the discussion of their relationship with Mossad officials in several countries other than the Israeli territory itself abroad, and China’s tireless attempt to dismantle all the Israeli encryption programs on the Internet, which Israel uses to communicate with clients, which is shocking to the Israeli Mossad, which is considered an “intelligence earthquake” for Israel.

  The point of intelligence worth mentioning to China and the region remains, which is confirmed by all the intelligence documents recently obtained by China, that there is a clear fluctuation in the positions of the leaders of the Arab armies and defense ministries during their speeches at the joint security and military conferences between them, and within the headquarters of the League of Arab States, on the  Those Arab armies are still far from being ready and ready to fight any war or joint conflict with Israel against Iran.  These analyzes or summaries of closed secret discussions of the leaders of the Arab armies and defense ministries regarding their position on the joint military and defense alliances to confront Tehran’s moves in cooperation with the military leaders in Tel Aviv, are considered the biggest strategic treasure for China, Russia and Iran alike, which is probably what the Mossad leaders realized  The Israelis, who are known to report directly to the Office of the Prime Minister’s Office in person, have provided the high political level in Israel with valuable information about the lack of readiness of the Arab and Gulf armies for a military confrontation with Israel against Iran.                  

  On the other hand, after the success of Chinese intelligence in completely dismantling all American spy networks on Chinese territory, doubt arose about China’s success in recruiting diplomats from the American embassy in Beijing to work for it, and the suspicion of American intelligence appeared in everyone, including the American ambassador at the American embassy in Beijing  same.  Which prompted all American intelligence agencies, to form (special working groups of the elite and elite of American intelligence, the most experienced and the highest ranked, whether within the FBI or the CIA)                               

FBI & CIA

  They assigned this group a very secret headquarters that they chose meticulously in northern Virginia, and assigned it to analyze every operation, and to (study the file of all diplomats working in the American embassy in Beijing very carefully, regardless of their diplomatic ranks, including the American ambassador himself, for fear of  recruiting them for China).                                                          

  This is what Chinese intelligence has succeeded in completely, given the targeting of US and Israeli Foreign Ministry officials by the Chinese, and the most dangerous targeting of China to recruit senior American and Israeli security, military and intelligence ranks and leaders on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of State Security, which is the main intelligence agency for China.  They are assisted by all the vast Chinese spy networks spread around the world, in view of the directives issued by the Chinese President, Comrade Xi Jinping in 2018, and his strict directives to Chinese companies to amend their internal regulations to put the concepts of (loyalty and belonging to the Chinese state above achieving economic profit itself). The largest and most dangerous role remains, represented by the (Chinese Ministry of State Security) in Beijing, through its recruitment of the former officer in the US Central Intelligence Agency “CIA”, named “Jerry Chun Shing”, and through him the Chinese intelligence was able to know and track all the lists of the agents he knows are CIA agents, and the most dangerous is the help of former CIA officer “Jerry Chun Shing” of Chinese intelligence in deciphering the encrypted communications system known as “Quafcom” to set up the entire American spy network in China.                                                                

  The most dangerous Chinese intelligence service is the (Chinese Ministry of State Security), and the Chinese Ministry of State Security begins to monitor and recruit its officers from the first university level, as most of them come from students of the (Beijing University of International Relations), and this is the main difference in the Chinese approach to recruiting intelligence officers. In their first university stages, in order to select the best qualified in a precise and strict manner, and to have better opportunities in examining their backgrounds and their contacts with foreign bodies, and do they have a history of traveling or residing abroad or not?  The Chinese Ministry of State Security also places great emphasis on the proficiency of its employees in foreign languages, and runs an “intensive school for teaching foreign languages ​​for officers”, in addition to placing them for a long time under the supervision of a special department of internal security known as (the Ninth Office), whose main function is (monitoring and following up all  Workers and conscripts within the Chinese Ministry of State Security).                                                                                

                                                                                   It comes at the top of the government agencies that practice intelligence activity informally in China, namely: (The National Defense Administration of Science, Technology and Industry), known in China and internationally as the “Sustained Administration”, and it is very similar to the work of the (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), known as “DARPA” in the United States of America, and we find the role of the Chinese news agency “Xinhua”, which Washington and the West always accuse of working as a cover for Chinese intelligence officers and agents, and which prepares secret summaries for decision-makers in Beijing, and there is also (the Office of Overseas Chinese Affairs), which maintains relations with overseas Chinese communities and Chinese expatriates, as well as the role of the (Chinese Ministry of Education), which monitors and communicates with all overseas Chinese students, all of these Chinese bodies, ministries and agencies employ their followers to collect information for the benefit of the Chinese government.                                                       

 The main office responsible for recruiting and screening the handpicked in China for espionage activities is (the Liaison Office of the Ministry of State Security in Fuzhou, China). Whereas its elements are spreading all over the world in a decentralized network run by the principal officers.

 In general and statistically close to accuracy, the number of Chinese elements loyal to the Chinese state security apparatus within the United States of America alone can be estimated at hundreds of thousands of individuals or assets, some of whom work permanently and others temporarily, and there are statistics confirming that there are more than 17 million Americans of assets.  Asian, including four million of Chinese origin, in addition to a huge network of shell companies and front companies, numbering nearly three thousand… All of them are directly affiliated and are under the supervision of the Chinese Ministry of State Security.

  Chinese intelligence methods vary in recruiting these elements, but in the case of precious assets, that is, those that provide intelligence information of high importance to China, many additional temptations and advantages are often added to them, and some of them are called “ocean bottom fish”, a Chinese equivalent term  For the concept of “sleeper cells” in Western intelligence culture, these fish often receive training up to several months or years inside China, and are mainly used in the process of gathering information and filling gaps in communication networks, and sometimes to spread rumors in their host country. The Chinese intelligence has retained its special and distinctive character of the huge number and widespread espionage operations whose effects are felt all over the world.

   Here, we are noticing the extent of the sophistication and advanced of the Chinese intelligence services, which consists of a wide range of intelligence agencies, military departments, corporate offices, party organs, and even research institutions, universities and the media, all of whom are subject to two parallel structures of control, whether by the central government in Beijing, or by  Before the intelligence services of the ruling Communist Party in China, whose institutions hold the actual power in the country at the expense of the government itself, and carry out various operational and administrative tasks.

  And the most dangerous office of the CIA targeted by Chinese intelligence is the (Office of Foreign Broadcasting Information Service), which includes a complete list of sensitive information from the heart of the CIA, which is passed on to Beijing, and perhaps the most important is information related to the plans of the CIA. The White House and its management of rapprochement or conflict with China, plans whose leakage gave Beijing a higher position in any subsequent negotiations with the American side.

 The surprising thing for me, personally, is the prohibition of visiting China for all its recruited agents who are implanted within the American Central Intelligence Agency in particular, since the beginning of their work in the American Central Intelligence Agency, provided that the meetings of Chinese recruits within the American intelligence services take place with the Chinese agents operating them to give them  The orders are in other countries apart from China and Washington, knowing that the duration of those meetings takes only a few minutes at most, due to the difficulty of monitoring and tracking them during those few minutes and seconds, and most importantly, the Chinese intelligence agents follow up with the American agencies their assignments that reach them from China with one Chinese intelligence official that does not change, in the manner that he may remain with his agents for a full 30 years, in order to maintain secure, narrow, and unobservable channels of communication by the Americans except with great difficulty.

  In general, the Ministry of State Security of China, which is the main Chinese intelligence service, was established in 1983, by merging the (Central Investigation Department with the espionage units of the Ministry of Public Security), to eventually turn the ministry into China’s main civil intelligence service, under it, they are organizing all the official and unofficial intelligence structures in the country, with the exception of the army, which maintained its own military intelligence apparatus, which is under the supervision of the Communist Party of China, and not under the direct control of the government.

 The Chinese President, Comrade “Xi Jinping”, directed his intelligence services to stop using embassy employees for espionage purposes, and to rely instead on journalists and businessmen, as part of a grand strategy known as “hide the brightness and feed the mystery”, where “Xi Jinping” wanted to expand the capabilities of his country, however, wanted to keep pace with the West, without engaging in many rhetorical wars and as covertly as possible.

  Here, we find the distinctive nature of the Chinese intelligence work, which depends not only on recruiting influential agents to obtain direct and sensitive information, as much as it depends on flooding the enemy intelligence and counterintelligence services and the enemy with thousands of small-scale and scope espionage operations, many of which seem to be of no value. The final total results of those Chinese slow and complex processes is often  reflect the traditional human traits of the Chinese who are known for their patience, perseverance and hard work.

  We can understand this Chinese way of tiny and small group work to obtain information, in Chinese social norms, and specifically in the well-known Chinese “Guansky” tradition, which means exploiting slow and strong interpersonal networks to influence events, a norm that has been developed and transmitted to Chinese business and economy, and later to the field of intelligence at the structural and technical level, at a time when the intelligence industry and the war of minds and information gathering were at a rapid pace for China, given the density of the intelligence working groups of the Chinese.

  The culture of intelligence and information gathering has gained tremendous importance for the Chinese, and their special approach to obtaining information, which has always been far from the general logic and bearing its own mark, was often done through a combination of (three main ways), which are:

  1. The first way: is what is known as human waves, where they exploit  Beijing has its huge human assets to recruit thousands of Chinese to collect huge amounts of information.
  • The second way: is to recruit and rely on the services of millions of Chinese people in all countries of the world and extract information from them periodically to reach deeper levels of network analysis of the huge data acquired.
  • The third way: It is slowly and patiently cultivating foreign agents in order to conduct active espionage operations in the long term.

  Through my intelligence analysis referred to, we can understand that Chinese espionage operations on the American side have made a great resonance in the American intelligence community, and shed light not only on the continuous rounds of the secret intelligence conflict between China and the United States of America, whose chapters still extend to this day, but also on the unfamiliar traditions and tactics of the Chinese intelligence services, one of the most efficient and complex intelligence services in the world, and perhaps the least known, notorious, knowledgeable and unfamiliar with their complex working methods.                

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Chinese penetration and its destruction of all American spy networks on the Chinese territory

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China’s National Counterintelligence and Surveillance Networks and the China Foreign Counterespionage Bureau have succeeded in dismantling all US spy networks on all Chinese territory.  The amazing thing is that the Chinese surrounded all American CIA officers and informants, who were going to Chinese restaurants to meet their clients, and the network of American spies in China, which turned out to be all under the control of the Chinese secret services. Every restaurant in China, according to what was announced by the secret reports of the American intelligence, and frustrating is the work of these workers in Chinese restaurants, and their possession of different military and security ranks in the (Chinese National Counterintelligence Service).

  Which prompted the Central Intelligence Agency to withdraw and smuggle many agents, informants and spies for America from China since 2010 until now due to its losses there and the vigilance of the Chinese. Which caused the CIA to suffer terrible losses as a result of this great failure it suffered in penetrating deep into the Chinese territory itself.  Perhaps this is what brings me back to the memory of what happened completely similar to it, given what the CIA also incurred in the Soviet Union, after the detection of many American agents inside Soviet lands.  The terrible shock was that the real reason for the detection of American agents on Soviet soil was betrayal from within the CIA itself, as American spies were handed over to their Soviet hunters by the American FBI agent (Robert Hansen), the head of the same counter-intelligence unit in the CIA, whose name is (Aldrich Ames), who were recruited by the Russian Intelligence Agency “KGB”.

 The fearsome Soviet in the seventies and eighties and throughout the Cold War period between the American and Soviet parties.

 Here, the reason for the Chinese intelligence dismantling all American spy networks on Chinese soil is due to the (Chinese anti-espionage service) being able to uncover a modern surveillance system, organized by the (US National Security Agency) “NSA” from Taiwan. At first, CIA agents went to the American student in Shanghai, China, “Glenn Shriver”, who collected American information of a defensive nature for Chinese intelligence in order to earn money to inspire American students studying abroad and motivate their patriotism, the (US Federal Bureau of Investigation) “FBI” issued (A video exposes the betrayal of the American student “Glenn Shriver”).

 And cases of real Chinese hacking of American intelligence were discovered, including what happened in March 2017, when the employee of the US State Department, “Candice Clinburn”, was arrested after discovering that she had secret contacts with Chinese officials, and her bank account revealed the scandal of the flow of money to her from China, in addition to  Chinese officials showered her with precious gifts and drenched her with money, including: an iPhone, a laptop computer, a fully furnished apartment, and many other benefits. But “Clinburn” did not admit her mistake, and no one could prove that she had revealed information about American agents to the Chinese.

  In another discovered case of Chinese spying on Washington, in January 2018, “Jerry Chun Xin Li” 53-year-old, was arrested at New York airport.  We find here that “Jerry Chun Xin Li” is an American citizen of Chinese descent who served in the US armed forces in the 1980s, and since 1994 has worked for the Central Intelligence Agency, where he had access to highly classified documents.  In 2007, he retired and went with his family to “Hong Kong”, and there he worked in an auction house, belonging to a high-ranking official in the Communist Party of China, and he was identified and recruited for China in the face of the CIA.

  In addition, the US secret communications system, used in China, known as:

“Covcom”

  What was used by a network of American agents in China, was very primitive, and the most dangerous was that it was connected via the Internet, and it was very similar to the American intelligence communication system in the Middle East, where the network environment is less dangerous.  It is clear that the American intelligence geniuses did not fully appreciate the capabilities of the Chinese hackers and hackers.  And when the American investigation team conducted tests to track the Chinese intrusion, it found that the American system of communications with the network of agents and spies in China contains a fatal error, as once it is entered, it is easily possible to access a much wider secret communication system, as the CIA was using it and interacting through it with its agents and agents network all over the world.

 More seriously, the CIA was particularly concerned, fearing that Chinese intelligence might have shared this information with its Russian counterpart and informed them of ways to gain access to the “Covcom” system of communications for the US intelligence contacts with its agents on Chinese lands. 

 What increased the fears of the Americans, is the disappearance of a number of American informants and spies, who were already active in Russia, and they stopped communicating with their operators from the American side at the same time that the American intelligence network collapsed in China, which confirms the Chinese handing over the secret communications code of the  Americans spies on the Russian lands as well.

  Because of the abject failure of the American intelligence in the face of Chinese superiority over it, so it tried to respond to the (Chinese National Counterintelligence Service) in November 2021, by convicting the American jury of spying for the Chinese intelligence officer (Yangun Shu), who was deputy director of the department in the (Sixth Office of the Ministry of State Security)  The Chinese officer in Jiangsu Province), which serves as the main intelligence agency of the Communist Party of China, and accused him of working to spy on US and Western military interests in favor of China, to obtain US military secrets and so on, and here the Chinese officer (Yangun Shu) was arrested in Belgium in the year  2018.  Then the final verdict was issued against the Chinese officer (Yangun Shu) on November 5, 2021, convicting the Chinese intelligence officer by a US federal jury of committing the charge of “conspiracy and attempting to commit economic and military espionage and stealing trade and military secrets for China”.

  Here, “Yang Shuo” is considered the first Chinese intelligence officer to be extradited to the United States of America. His case shows how China sought to obtain military-industrial secrets to help it militarily modernize its armed forces, which eventually enabled the People’s Liberation Army to build its vast network of Chinese advanced weaponry very quickly.

  The important thing should be noticed here is that under the (China National Security Law), every Chinese citizen and company is required to cooperate with the CPC and its leaders in matters of national security. This means, in practice, that those Chinese companies that deal with any foreign companies are still required to share any technology or information they obtain with the Chinese military or intelligence services in the Chinese state. Likewise, all Chinese researchers and graduate students working on science, technology, engineering or mathematics projects are expected to share their research with Beijing, for the welfare and development of their country.

   Accordingly, it is clear the extent of the widespread spread of the Chinese in America, Europe and the world, in order to preserve their security and the security of their homeland first, and then to obtain all the advanced technologies that allow them to develop and modernize the industrial and military infrastructure of their country, and this was revealed by “William Ivanina”, the head of the Counterintelligence and National Security Center  The United States, that the Chinese are adept in this field, by following a variety of means, through (the Chinese Ministry of State Security, United Front Action Department, People’s Liberation Army).

  The Chinese are also using a variety of ingenious tactics in this framework, including the latest electronic espionage devices and systems, to access sensitive information remotely, and what is known as “signal intelligence technology” to quickly capture information, as well as electronic intelligence, which enabled it to decipher all  The blades of American spying and wiretapping devices on its soil and abroad. Thus, the vision becomes completely clear to us, about the reasons for the dismantling of all US spy networks by Chinese intelligence on its lands.

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