Intelligence
Significance of Marine Safety Control in Gwadar Port and China’s Marine Silk Road
Marine safety is an expression that explains the problems associated with the aquatic life, national safety, sea territory, economy, financial growth of a nation and its safety. Gwadar port can become a doorway for business, commerce, collaboration, coordination and development for our country.Pakistan’s position in the marine region has become significant nowadays due to this recent development.Both China and Pakistan have friendly relations with each other for decades. It is therefore logical that any Chinese interest in the region would give centre-stage to its Friend. Any economic progress would bring stability and prosperity throughout the South-Asian region and beyond.
It automatically raises a need to reinforce marine safety control in Gwadar port and China’s Marine Silk Road. Both nations understand why marine growth and marine safety in Pakistan are of utmost necessity. Pakistan and China can achieve the geo-political aims and their desired strategy by working extremely closely together.
According to Mahan’s Sea Power theory, the prosperity of a nation depends on its sea power.A nation can have dominant influence on the international community if marine protection and marine control is implemented. One of the important factors he mentioned was the geographical area of the country or the nation. He has also carefully raised the importance of the number of streams, creeks,seashore anchorage and reservoirs that are linked with the sea route. According to Mahan, the location of shore-line is also of vital importance. Another important factor is the mindset of people residing in that country or nation with context to their beliefs, ideology and opinions. The number of people residing in the country has an importance of its own. Their perspectives regarding business and commercial activities has a lot of bearing according to him. Are they business-minded and do they believe in economic prosperity due to trade and commercial activities on the sea shore? Does the administration and authority believe in their interests or do they want the prosperity of the nation? If political leaders want monopolization of power then the country will not prosper.The decisions made by the people residing in the country will not be able to bear economic and financial progression in that case.Mahan emphasized that marine forces were important in making a nation world-wide powerful and strong because of its military decisions and financial superiority. Military and naval might has been used as an extension of diplomacy for ages.
Marine safety plays a fundamental role in a state’s security. Naval security is dependent on government’s decision regarding political, economic affairs as well as the relations with other states. It is necessary for the development of a nation or a region to resolve the disputes with their neighbour. Throughout history, international disputes have created immense problems for countries and their economic progression.Different countries can coexist with friendly neighbour resulting in greater benefit for its people. For the prosperity of nations, peace is an essential element. To avoid war and hostility an element of understanding and mutual survival will be formed between the states. Hence states will learn to co-exist peacefully. Peaceful relationships between both the states are important for economic growth and prosperity. Marine safety and Marine Safety Control requires all nations to stop naval violence, stealing ships, stopping the use of illegal drugs, and putting an end to the illegal buying and selling of humans, drugs and weapons. Naval safety involves the safety of ships and the marine environment. Pakistan’s prosperity is dependent on reinforcing marine safety control. If Pakistan does not strengthen its naval safety, it will bear grave economic losses. It would create an image of an unstable sea-power globally. Besides this, it will not be able to protect the smuggling of ships and the illegal use and transportation of drugs. Sea route is of vital importance as it is linked to the Indian Ocean, South East Asia, Arabian Sea and Africa. Unfortunately, Arabian Sea faces the issues of marine security control. Smuggling of drugs and weapons is widely observed in the Arabian Sea. However, unauthorized and illegal use of drugs and weapons in the Indian ocean has been reduced owing to regular patrolling.Oil is carried through the Indian Ocean for the purpose of trade which is important for the prosperity of South Asian region and other countries as well. Naval safety is an important issue and it must be addressed adequately. Sea laws should be implemented and followed to eliminate illegal transfer of drugs,human-trafficking and weapons. It would automatically help to reduce sea crimes.
Pakistan is politically unstable so it is difficult for Pakistan to maintain China’s trust. China believes thatmodern infrastructure and technology use by Pakistan can help eliminate poverty.It will contribute to economic prosperity of the Pakistani nation. The vision behind the Economic Corridor is to improve the lives of the Pakistani and Chinese people by building economic cooperation, logistics and regional connections. In addition to local challenges, the implementation of the Pakistan Economic Corridor project faces a number of international reservations.
Forefront external challenge to this corridor is India’s labile approach to the corridor. India’s serious demand is that Gilgit-Baltistan is a disputed territory. The trail route through this area is illegal. Another concern in India is that they see Gwadar as a Chinese “String of Pearls” encircling it in the deep sea, stretching from the East-coast to the Pacific Ocean. China is also building ports in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh which poses a potential military challenge to India. India expects that in the future, China will block Indian sea routes by stealing such ports. As a result, India is dissatisfied with the progress made by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and is sabotaging the corridor by playing its cards in Balochistan. The recent arrest of Indian agent Kulbhushan Jadhav generally confirms Indian intervention in Balochistan and Pakistan. In order to sabotage the success of this corridor the Indo-Afghan nexus remains active. Continued internal instability in Afghanistan is purported to be linked to Pakistan. All acts of terrorism in Afghanistan are claimed to have their roots in our country. Additionally, India is building military bases in Afghanistan where terrorist activities are taking place. Sabotage of the economic corridor through Afghanistan continues unabated. Pakistan-Afghan relations falter over an insecure Durand Line repeatedly.
Another challenge in implementing the Corridor is Chabahar Port. Iran is developing the Chabahar port in cooperation with India. India is investing billions of dollars in the project to disrupt the Gwadar Port. It repeatedly resorts to negative propaganda regarding capacity and the depth of waterways. It has claimed that Gwadar is about to expire. However, President Rouhani said: “Chabahar will not compete with Gwadar, but the two will complement each other.”
Another important obstacle is the involvement of the major powers. The two main powers, the United States and Japan, are eyeing a multi-billion dollar project. China has adopted various policies to control the United States. The United States feels it as threatening to its global power with and thus placing obstacles in the way of port of Gwadar. In addition, the United States understands that Gwadar Port might be used for military purposes in the future. As part of its safeguard policy, the United States signed a “strategic and economic partnership” with India. US assistance to NSG India is also part of this partnership. Their cooperation poses a challenge not only to China but also to Pakistan. On the other hand, Japan is under pressure because the use of the Economic Corridor will reduce the distance between China and its trading countries to 9,000 km, which will have a profound impact on Japan’s exports. Moreover, it includes an integrated transportation and information technology system, communication channels, agricultural development, and poverty relief. Moreover, it includes tourism, financial cooperation and human resource development. Gwadar port is very important for China and for international trade between nations. This route links the South Asian region with South China Sea and new infrastructure is being built. Marine pathways, railways, roads and power structures are being built. This route would open new avenues of trade and commercial activities thus creating new sources of income. Absence of ensuring naval security will significantly affect Pakistan and China. Additionally, it will bode economic and financial loss for oceans and the linked territories with this sea route which will also be adversely affected. India and United States want hegemony over the region however China doesn’t appreciate this decision. China has helped Pakistan in reinforcing its naval capabilities through management, coordination, engineering and ship transportation. The infrastructure is built by Chinese workers and the investment is done by Chinese nation. Moreover, Pakistan has been blessed with a very important strategic location. This remains a plus point for a country deferred under the burdens of basic-needs fulfillment till today. Usually such projects are considered as nothing but riot-starters but this project has become a reason for which many are willing to let go of their past relations.This has kick-started a competition amongst the regional players as they are gradually realising the potential upside. For many in the region this has become a chance to achieve economic and social reconciliation in their neighbourhood. In the current scenario an opportunity like this presenting itself is not less then a miracle perhaps. This reason should suffice as enough evidence to handle the case with sanity. Messing up this opportunity means moving back the entire block by 50 years to be precise. The rationalization of decision-making regarding the project should be the prime concern of the authorities.They should make the rules which are not bypassed and implement the requisite policies effectively. For prime purposes another thing to be kept in mind by the country concerned that even at the time of the East India Company trade was the opening part. Soon the white man eventually built a castle and introduced the strongest monopoly that have been discovered till now.This project promotes worldwide collaboration, cooperation and requires global control. Naval forces of China and Pakistan are working day and night for this project to be successful. Furthermore the Middle-Eastern proverb “Fashion moves around the sea” is another justification and reasoning as to why the sea port will be a game-changing part for the country. Asian slowly growing dominance is augmented with the country’s trade routes as a major contribution.The investor country can also fulfill and solve it’s old issues between the neighbour as the time proceeds. This will eventually give Pakistan a moment of relief from the external pressures in order to straighten up its image of falling justice and institutional system.
For China it will open more opportunities as the trade of oil will be possible from a short route. In addition this arrangement will also enable China to observe Indian marine operations.
- What problems will China and Pakistan face nationwide?
- What will be the marine security concerns and how will they affect the economic prosperity of both Pakistan and China?
- How can Pakistan and China achieve the geo-political aims and what is the desired strategy to achieve them ?
- What are the future implications of Gwadar Port worldwide?
Gwadar port has worldwide implications, whether related to economy, trade or commercial activities. It does not only affect China and Pakistan’s economic prosperity but the prosperity of South Asia and beyond. Pakistan and China’s naval and marine forces are working day and night for the development of Gwadar Port. However,India and United States want to have dominance over the South Asian region. They are only concerned about their self-interests. Through the Indian Ocean almost half of the trade is carried out. If this combined project of Pakistan and China becomes unsuccessful it will have global and worldwide implications. It will destroy multiple naval forces and many nations will face economic and financial loss. However,if marine safety control is ensured, this initiative will be successful and economic prosperity will be observed in the future. It may not be wrong to say that in the realist paradigm usually what we see is the self interest to every extent. Hence it is a thoughtful thing to take necessary steps in time to settle down your affairs domestically and nationally. Which is Pakistan have to be extra careful Mahaan’s Sea Power Theory: Significance of Marine Safety Control in Gwadar Port in dealings with the giants of economy.
Intelligence
The Role of Open-Source Intelligence in the War in Ukraine
During the Ukraine conflict, OSINT has had a considerable impact on military intelligence, information warfare, media reporting, and the recording of war crimes.
In recent years, the abundance of open-source intelligence (OSINT) has increased tremendously, largely owing to the ever-growing importance of the internet and social media, as well as the larger availability of publicly accessible information and satellite imagery tools. Whereas before, intelligence was largely the purview of national intelligence agencies, the so-called democratization of intelligence has enabled a greater range of individuals to collect information and deliver intelligence products in an impactful way. The consequences of this are readily observable in the ongoing war in Ukraine, where OSINT is being used in a variety of ways to monitor troop movements, shape the narrative, track war crimes, and assist in war reportage.
OSINT is defined as ‘the practice of collecting and analysing information gathered from open sources to produce actionable intelligence.’ One advantage of OSINT is that the types of sources available are incredibly varied. Data can be collected, processed, and analysed from commercial satellite images, public social media posts, unencrypted radio messages, and other publicly available sources.
The abundance of publicly available information readily available for intelligence purposes has had had an impact on the ground in Ukraine. In addition to the activities of Ukraine’s intelligence professionals, Ukrainian civilians, as well as members of the international community sympathetic to the Ukrainian side, have played a role in delivering useful insights from OSINT to the Ukrainian military. As noted by British Army General Sir Jim Hockenhull in December last year, OSINT has ‘proved to be a force multiplier’ by allowing a wider range of individuals to participate in the collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination of intelligence.
The ‘crowdsourcing’ of OSINT has enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to track the movements of Russian military units with greater accuracy, intercept plans and operations, and to anticipate some actions before they take place. Even before the Russian invasion, signs that it was about going to take place were shared online by individuals using open sources. For example, Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute examined road traffic reports on Google Maps to identify a jam on the Russian side of the border at 15:15 on February 24, just three hours before the invasion began. As the war has progressed, commercially and publicly available satellite images have been used to track the location of Russian units and unencrypted radio transmissions and mobile phones have enabled Ukrainians to snoop on Russian communications. The use of social media by soldiers on both sides is prolific. By monitoring social media posts on a variety of platforms, intelligence can be obtained on the approximate location, morale, and fighting posture of various military units.
OSINT has also played an important role in information operations, largely helping the Ukrainian side to garner international public opinion in its favour, thus denying Russia an important political advantage. The collection of evidence through OSINT has been used to counter Putin’s narrative on the war and rebut false flag narratives from the Russians. For example, in April last year, images and videos surfaced appearing to show the massacre of Ukrainian civilians in the town of Bucha by Russian forces. Russian troops had occupied the town for approximately a month between February 27 to March 31, 2022. However, Russia claimed that the massacres had in fact been staged by Ukraine to attract Western sympathies. These claims were debunked by satellite images and video analyses which confirmed that the bodies had been present weeks before Ukrainian forces arrived in Bucha. The ability to rebut Russian narratives and maintain an advantage in the arena of international political opinion has been of critical importance for Ukraine, which has been able to somewhat offset the quantitative disadvantage it faces against Russia through the receipt of foreign military aid.
The documentation of war crimes has itself been another area where OSINT has shined. The use of social media by soldiers on both sides of the conflict has been so prolific that some commentators are calling it the ‘first social media war.’ Although this claim is somewhat hyperbolic, the widespread sharing of images and videos on social media platforms like Telegram, YouTube, and Facebook has lifted the fog of war to a previously unseen level. In many cases, videos and images have surfaced on social media showing flagrant breaches of international law. Some non-profit groups like OSINT for Ukraine – a collective of ‘university students and young professionals dedicated to documenting war crimes in Ukraine’ – have collected vast amounts of public data in an attempt to verify and record instances of illegal activity. Of course, verification can itself be difficult, but details like unit insignias can be identified to gather evidence, as can tools like facial recognition software. Presently, enforcement of international and humanitarian law is not feasible, but it remains to be seen how evidence obtained via open sources may be used to prosecute war crimes at some point after the conflict’s conclusion.
Finally, there are important implications for war reporting posed by the abundant availability of open-source materials. Whereas information about previous conflicts were predominately communicated to the general public via journalists reporting from the ground, the availability of open-source content has made it possible for individuals to consume a greater amount of information not filtered by the mainstream media. Various social media accounts, particularly on Telegram, curate images and videos captured on the frontlines of Ukraine. This presents an opportunity to increase public awareness but also to spread misinformation, given the difficulties of verifying content and the ability to frame information in a misleading way.
The availability of open-source information has also changed the way journalists in the mainstream media work. Given the abundance of new sources, journalists may also convey information gleamed from these open sources, rather than relying solely on more traditional journalistic methods. This has accelerated the speed of the news cycle regarding the war. Before the advent of widespread social media usage, updates from the battlefield could take days, weeks, or months to reach the public. Now, the news cycle is constant and information from the conflict can be obtained in a matter of minutes or hours as it becomes available online.
The usage of OSINT in the war Ukraine is fast becoming an important case study for future intelligence practitioners and decision makers. The trends established in this war regarding the abundance of available open sources, as well as the military, political, and informational consequences they pose, will endure and evolve in future conflicts to come.
Intelligence
A Comprehensive Study of India and Pakistan’s Cyber Strengths and Weaknesses
Countries have prioritised cybersecurity and developed skills to safeguard their vital infrastructure, digital assets, and private data as a result of the growing significance of cyberspace in the contemporary world. No exemption applies to India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours that have a turbulent past. This study compares their cyber capabilities in great depth and evaluates Pakistan’s difficulties and concerning circumstances.
Over the last several years, India has significantly increased its cyber capabilities. The Indian government has made significant investments in research, education, and infrastructure related to cybersecurity. India’s dedication to protecting its cyberspace is shown by the creation of the National Cyber Security Coordinator (NCSC), the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), and the National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC).
The development of India’s cyber capabilities has also been greatly helped by the private sector. Through research, development, and consulting services, organisations like Infosys, Wipro, and Tata Consultancy Services have significantly improved the cybersecurity environment. Furthermore, with over 100,000 people working in the industry, India boasts a sizable talent pool of cybersecurity specialists.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s cyber capabilities are still in the early phases of development. The National Centre for Cyber Security (NCCS) and the Computer Emergency Response Team (PK-CERT) are only two recent achievements for the nation. However, India’s spending in cyber defence dwarf these efforts.
With few businesses actively engaged in cybersecurity research and development, Pakistan’s private sector has likewise fallen behind its Indian counterpart. The nation’s pool of cybersecurity experts is fewer than it should be, and the absence of strong cyber defences has made its digital assets susceptible to intrusions.
India has been investing in creating offensive cyber tools and methods, which has led to a steady improvement in its cyber warfare capabilities. The nation has allegedly engaged in cyber espionage operations against its rivals, particularly Pakistan. The Indian government’s emphasis on enhancing its cyberwarfare and information collecting capabilities has alarmed Pakistan and other nearby nations.
Although Pakistan has also been accused of carrying out cyberattacks on India, experts feel that Pakistan’s skills in this area are less advanced than India’s. Pakistan’s cyberattacks have mostly targeted vital infrastructure, military networks, and government websites in India. However, Pakistan’s cyber attack has had a very modest effect owing to a lack of highly developed cyber capabilities.
Pakistan has a huge issue as a result of the expanding cyber capability gap between India and Pakistan. Pakistan will have a difficult time protecting its digital assets and launching an effective cyberoffensive against its neighbour as India’s cyber defences become more advanced.
The poor cybersecurity framework in Pakistan has economic repercussions as well. Cyberattacks continue to represent a risk to the nation’s digital economy, which is essential to its growth and development. Cyberattacks have the potential to cause financial losses, vital infrastructure damage, and a loss of faith in digital services, all of which might impede Pakistan’s economic development.
Due to Pakistan’s lacking cyber capabilities, national security is at stake as cyber warfare plays a bigger role in contemporary conflict. Pakistan’s stability and security might suffer greatly if a cyberattack on its vital infrastructure, military systems, or government systems is successful.
Slow and dispersed action has been taken in response to the rising cyber threat. The government must give cybersecurity top priority and create a thorough national plan to meet its difficulties. Pakistan may take the following actions to close the gap and improve its cyber capabilities:
In order to successfully handle the cyber issues it confronts, Pakistan has to enhance its current cyber institutions and create new ones. It should be a primary priority to increase the NCCS and PK-CERT’s capacity and capabilities as well as to create a comprehensive national cybersecurity strategy.
Pakistan must make investments to create a secure infrastructure that can fend against cyberattacks. This involves distributing funds for research and development, enabling public-private collaborations, and encouraging innovation in the field of cybersecurity.
For Pakistan’s cyber defence, it is essential to address the scarcity of qualified cybersecurity personnel. To develop a workforce capable of combating new cyber dangers, the nation must invest in cybersecurity education and training programmes.
To improve its cyber capabilities, Pakistan should aggressively seek out foreign partnership and cooperation. By cooperating with international partners, the nation may get access to cutting-edge technology, exchange best practises, and create efficient cyberstrategies.
In the context of the rivalry between India and Pakistan, it is crucial for both nations to take confidence-boosting actions and set standards of conduct online. This can include commitments to refrain from attacking vital infrastructure and cooperate to combat online threats. Such actions may increase confidence between the two countries while lowering the likelihood of cyber escalation.
A concerning scenario for Pakistan is shown by comparing the cyber capabilities of India and Pakistan. Pakistan must take immediate measures to address its cyber vulnerabilities in light of the widening cyber capability gap as well as the ramifications for the economy and national security. Pakistan can negotiate the complex cyber environment and defend its interests in cyberspace by strengthening institutions, investing in infrastructure and research, expanding cybersecurity education, seeking international collaboration, and taking confidence-boosting steps with India.
Intelligence
Narcotrafficking: A National Security Threat
The United States is facing a crisis at its porous southern border, which 2.78 million undocumented aliens crossed in 2022 [1]. At the same time, narcotics are entering the country in unprecedented quantities, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seizing 267,222 pounds of illicit drugs in 2022. This total included 23,248 pounds of fentanyl, a drug which alone accounted for nearly 80 percent of the 110,000 overdose deaths last year [2] [3]. Mexican drug cartels use the border to smuggle drugs and people into the United States.
The cartels manufacture fentanyl and other synthetic drugs using precursor chemicals supplied by China. The drugs are then smuggled across the border by mules, including undocumented aliens. Inside the U.S., the drugs are distributed by transnational gangs, such as MS-13 (Mara Salvatrucha). China helps the cartels to launder their money [4]. Due to the sophistication with which the drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) are operating, they can be considered transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) [5]. These cartels are responsible for more American deaths in one year than the entire Vietnam War, which killed 58,000 Americans. For this reason, DTOs should be considered a national security threat [6].
The cartels are earning an estimated $13 billion per year on human trafficking, plus at least another $12 billion from drugs [7] [8]. This money is used by the cartels to purchase larger armies and better weapons. Consequently, violence in Mexico is increasing as gangs have more of an incentive to fight each other for control of this lucrative business. This makes it harder for the Mexican government to eradicate the cartels, while also making it harder for the U.S. government to cooperate with the Mexican government.
The police and politicians in Mexico are, on the one hand, corrupt, as they are willing to accept cartel money to look the other way or actually aid in the manufacture and distribution of drugs. On the other hand, even the honest ones are coerced into working for cartels, who offer “plata o plomo,” money or bullets [9]. And so, the narcotraffickers continue to expand and to kill Mexican and American citizens directly, while also killing Americans indirectly with fentanyl and other illicit drugs. Illegal immigrants are often used as drug mules, or are trafficked into the country to work for street gangs, distributing the drugs.
Part of the threat to the U.S., other than the drugs and violence that comes over the U.S. border, is the possible destabilization of the Mexican government, which could trigger a massive influx of refugees and drugs.
In the 1980s, the Mexican gangs became organized in terms of drug trafficking, controlling territories and distribution markets. This brought them in conflict with one another, as they fought for control of these routes and markets. Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared a war on drugs in 2006, and deployed military force against the cartels. In 2012, President Enrique Peña Nieto altered the Calderon-era strategy, shifting away from confronting the cartels and instead concentrating on law enforcement and public safety. The Sinaloa Cartel’s Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was arrested in 2014, and extradited to the U.S. in 2017, creating a power vacuum which resulted in increased violence both within the Sinaloa Cartel and between Sinaloa and other cartels. There was a short-term decrease in crime after the reforms instituted by Peña Nieto, but corruption remained high, and by 2016, drug-related homicides had increased 22 percent. In 2017, a mass grave in Veracruz state was found to contain 250 bodies of those killed by cartels. Since 2006, an estimated 150,000 people have been killed in drug-related violence [10]
From 1917 through the 1980s, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI) was in control of the state, ruling Mexico’s local, state, and federal governments as an authoritarian regime which was successful in fostering the longest period of peace in the modern history of Mexico. The cartels bribed police and politicians in order to operate their drug businesses. The police were used as protection and as intermediaries between the cartels and the PRI. In 2012, with the election of Enrique Pena Nieto, the PRI returned to the Presidential Mansion. In the leadup to the 2018 presidential election, Mexican cartels killed at least 130 candidates and politicians [10]. Violence in Mexico had been steadily increasing, but has become even worse since the repeal of Trump-era policies. In 2021, drug-related homicides were up 15 percent. Additionally, the repeal of strict immigration policies in the U.S. has increased the appeal of being trafficked into the country, which means more money for the cartels. As the cartels earn more money, violence in Mexico increases.
Attacks on innocent civilians are becoming more and more common [11]. Over the past six years, an estimated 140,000 Mexicans have been murdered, largely by cartels, and the situation is getting worse [12]. In one of Mexico’s most dangerous cities, Celaya, homicides went from 80 in 2010 to 800 in 2020. In 2021, the number dropped somewhat to 640, but the government has dramatically undercounted [13] [14]. Hundreds of those who went missing in Celaya last year were not included in the homicide tally. As cartel violence increases in Mexico, more Mexicans are willing to pay the cartels to have themselves trafficked into the U.S., creating a vicious cycle of amplification. In 2022, Celaya was the site of a massacre, when gunmen killed 11 people in a single incident, including women and children [15]. By December 2022, the overall murder rate in Mexico had declined about 9 percent year-on-year, but this excluded those who were missing. Additionally, other forms of violence remained at record levels [16].
Internationalization of Crime
Initially, Columbian cocaine was shipped by sea and entered the United States through Florida. In the 1980s, the U.S. joined forces with governments in Latin America to combat the drug cartels. At first, these joint efforts enjoyed some success, but they resulted in the unintended consequence of deals being struck between Colombian cartels and Mexican criminal gangs. This resulted in Colombian drugs being trafficked by Mexican gangs into the U.S. through the Southern Border. Seeing the large sums of money the Columbians were earning, the Mexican cartels demanded to be paid in cocaine, which further increased the quantity of drugs hitting American streets. Mexican gangs then created their own distribution networks along the U.S. border, and with the additional money they were able to purchase more soldiers and guns, transforming themselves into sophisticated cartels [13] [17]. Now, through globalization and increased sophistication of the cartel business model, the menu of drug offerings includes fentanyl, cocaine, marijuana, and methamphetamine, with a certain amount of poppies and heroin.
Over the past few decades, criminal gangs have increasingly internationalized, until even the smallest local gang anywhere in the U.S. could be part of a larger TCO. The threat to U.S. national security posed by the transnational drug gangs increases with cooperation between drug trafficking groups, international terrorist groups, and transnational gangs such as MS-13 [18].
Transnational Drug and Criminal Organizations
The Mexican cartels purchase precursor chemicals from China [19]. In 2019, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission identified China as the number-one source of the fentanyl and fentanyl-related chemicals and products which find their way into the United States. Law enforcement officials have observed a growing trend of Chinese nationals working with drug gangs in both Mexico and the U.S. [20]. Chinese entities are also laundering Mexican drug money through the Chinese financial system. Thomas Overacker, executive director of the CBP Office of Field Operations, stated that most of most of the fentanyl entering the United States does so through the southwestern border [20].
The Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels manufacture most of the fentanyl which ends up in the United States [20]. The U.S. Treasury identified China as a primary threat for money-laundering risk, specifically citing their fentanyl business with Mexican cartels [21]. A 2020 report found that China was the world’s primary money launderer [20]. Once the drugs enter the U.S., the cartels use gangs such as MS-13 to transport and distribute them [4].
Weak Southern Border Policy
In February 2023, The House Committee on Oversight and Accountability held a hearing, in which U.S. Border Patrol chiefs testified about the situation at the southern border. Over the past two years, CBP has set records for seizures of narcotics, as well as the arrest of illegal border crossers and suspected terrorists. The Committee’s findings were that “President Biden and his administration’s policies created the worst border crisis in American history [22]. By removing deterrents, such as punishment for illegal entry into the U.S, the Biden administration has encouraged illegal entrances. Additionally, by providing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, he has increased the attractiveness of sneaking across the border. As the people entering the country in this way are often poor and desperate, cartels can easily force them into gangs or prostitution.
Conclusion
The theory that narcotrafficking is a form of terrorism and that it is a national security threat is well-supported by the evidence. In fact, even President Biden publicly acknowledged the fact that the opioid epidemic is a national security threat. The narcotrafficking organizations match the definition of transnational terrorist organizations. In their home countries, they utilize violence and threats of violence to impede law enforcement or bring about political change. As transnational terrorists, they smuggle drugs, weapons, and terrorists into the United States which kill and injure millions of Americans. Additionally, they coordinate with known U.S. threat countries, such as China. Given the size of the threat, its transitional nature, and coordination with threat countries, it can be said that the narcotrafficking organizations pose a national security threat to the United States.
On the one hand, these drugs kill Americans through overdoses, while destroying millions of lives through addiction. On the other hand, increased drug flow results in more crime in the U.S., owing to street gangs such as MS-13. In Mexico, cartels’ greater income means more soldiers and more violence, which is threatening to destabilize the Mexican government, unleashing an even greater refugee problem in the U.S. Additionally, a portion of the money earned by the cartels flows back to China for the purchase of precursor chemicals and money laundering services.
Since most of the organizations smuggling drugs into the U.S. are entering the country through the Southern border, it seems that the hypothesis is also correct, that a weak southern border policy is exacerbating the problem. Stronger policies would reduce human trafficking into the U.S., while curtailing the flow of illegal drugs.
U.S. government agencies are recognizing the need for stronger policies to protect the Southern border. “The Department of Homeland Security, requesting that the Department of the Defense provide assistance under our 284-authority, which is our drug smuggling authority, which allows the Department of Defense to build fences, roads and lighting along the southwest border” [23]. The U.S. could utilize the Southern Command to secure the southern border and put a moratorium on illegal immigration. This would staunch the flow of drugs into the U.S. and deprive the cartels of the income they earn from human trafficking. Less drug money for the cartels would mean less money for weapons and soldiers [17]. This would make it easier for the government of Mexico to eradicate the cartels.
Endnotes
[1] Ainsley, J. (2022, October 22). “Migrant border crossings in Fiscal Year 2022 topped 2.76 million, breaking previous record.” NBCNews.com. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/migrant-border-crossings-fiscal-year-2022-topped-276-million-breaking-rcna53517
[2] The White House (2023, January 11). “Dr. Rahul Gupta Releases Statement on CDC’s New Overdose Death Data.” https://www.whitehouse.gov/ondcp/briefing-room/2023/01/11/dr-rahul-gupta-releases-statement-on-cdcs-new-overdose-death-data-2/
[3] Office of Governor Janet T. Mills. (2023). “Administration Statement on January-December 2022 Drug Overdose Report.” https://www.maine.gov/governor/mills/news/mills-administration-statement-january-december-2022-drug-overdose-report-2023-02-02
[4] Zemek, A. (2022, May 18). “Murderous Cartels, Illicit Drugs, and Human Trafficking: The Threat and Atrocity of America’s Porous Southern Border.” America First Policy Institute, May 18, 2022. https://americafirstpolicy.com/latest/20220518-murderous-cartels-illicit-drugs-and-human-trafficking-the-threat-and-atrocity-of-americas-porous-southern-border
[5] Congressional Research Service. (2019, August 15). “Mexico: Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking Organizations.” https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41576/37
[6] Barr, W. (2023, March 2). “The U.S. must defeat Mexico’s drug cartels.” Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-us-must-defeat-mexicos-drug-cartels-narco-terrorism-amlo-el-chapo-crenshaw-military-law-enforcement-b8fac731
[7] Rogers, Z. (2022). “Cartels making $13 billion a year smuggling migrants across border, report says.” WPDE. https://wpde.com/news/nation-world/cartels-making-13-billion-a-year-off-smuggling-migrants-through-border-nyt-report-says-mexio-immigrants-coyote-texas
[8] Vallarta Daily News. (2022, March 11). “Mexican drug traffickers launder 25 billion dollars a year.” https://www.vallartadaily.com/mexican-drug-traffickers-launder-25-billion-dollars-a-year/
[9] Duncan, G. (2022, October 7). “Beyond ‘plata o plomo’: Drugs and State Reconfiguration in Colombia.” Cambridge Core. https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/abs/beyond-plata-o-plomo/638DE2FB4FAC3A1A529D00D5DB7B7039
[10] Center for Preventive Action (2023, January 6). “Criminal Violence in Mexico.” Council on Foreign Relations https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/criminal-violence-mexico
[11] Suárez, K. (2022, September 24). “Outbreak of Mexican cartel violence targeting innocents raises worries of what’s to come.” USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2022/09/24/cartel-violence-mexico-hitting-innocents-raises-worry-future/8083730001/
[12] Blears, J. (2022, December 3). “Violent crime on the rise in Mexico.” Vatican News. https://www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2022-12/mexico-homicides-increase-drug-cartels.html
[13] Rizer, A. 2015. “Hannibal at the Gate: Border Kids, Drugs, and Guns – and the Mexican Cartel War Goes on.” St. Thomas Law Review, March 22, 2015. https://law-journals-books.vlex.com/vid/hannibal-at-the-gate-636909249
[14] Abi-Habib, M. and O. Lopez (2022, August 31). “‘Absolute Warfare’: Cartels Terrorize Mexico as Security Forces Fall Short.” New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/31/world/americas/mexico-cartels-violence.html
[15] Buschschlüter, V. (2022, May 24). “Mexico shooting: Gunmen open fire at hotel in Celaya.” BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-61562286
[16] Resendiz, J. (2022, December 30). “Murders down in Mexico, but violence still at near-record levels.” Fox 5. https://fox5sandiego.com/news/border-report/murders-down-in-mexico-but-violence-still-at-near-record-levels/
[17] Bensman, T. (2022, December 27). “Biden’s Border Crisis Is Fueling Growing Cartel Armies.” Center for Immigration Studies. https://cis.org/Bensman/Bidens-Border-Crisis-Fueling-Growing-Cartel-Armies
[18] Hesterman, J. L. (2013). The Terrorist-Criminal Nexus: An Alliance of International Drug Cartels, Organized Crime, and Terror Groups. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
[19] Standaert, M. (2021, February 28). “China’s fentanyl connection: the suppliers fuelling America’s opioid epidemic.” South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/3123109/chinas-fentanyl-connection-suppliers-fuelling
[20] Greenwood, L., and K. Fashola. (2021, August 24). “Illicit Fentanyl from China: An Evolving Global Operation,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/Illicit_Fentanyl_from_China-An_Evolving_Global_Operation.pdf
[21] U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2022, May). “National Strategy for Combating Terrorist and Other Illicit Financing.” https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/2022-National-Strategy-for-Combating-Terrorist-and-Other-Illicit-Financing.pdf
[22] The House Committee on Oversight and Accountability. (2023, February 7). “Border Patrol Chiefs: Biden’s Border Crisis Is ‘Overwhelming.’” https://oversight.house.gov/release/border-patrol-chiefs-bidens-border-crisis-is-overwhelming/
[23] Media Roundtable Background Briefing on DHS Request for DOD Assistance in Blocking Drug-Smuggling Corridors Along the Southern US Border. (2020). In U.S. Department of Defense Information / FIND. Federal Information & News Dispatch, LLC.
-
Finance4 days agoThe Spectator: Why the economic war against Russia has failed?
-
Economy3 days agoIs U.S. housing market going to crash?
-
International Law3 days agoRussia-Ukraine conflict: Perspective of International Laws of Use of Force
-
World News4 days agoTurkish presidential election and foreign policy
-
Defense4 days agoFinland’s accession to NATO: What it means and why it matters?
-
East Asia3 days agoThe Mongolian Candidate
-
South Asia3 days agoThe Reasons Behind Pakistan’s Reluctance to Establish Diplomatic Ties with Israel
-
New Social Compact3 days agoThe Social Ostracism of the Disabled: A Tale of Discrimination, Deprivation, and Disregard
