Unfortunately, it seems that the Lebanese economic scenario is similar to the Venezuelan scenario. I am not optimistic. There is no glimmer of hope on the horizon, and it is likely that 2021 will be “the year of the major Lebanese economic setback.” COVID-19 has established new economic rules on many countries with fragile economies, including Lebanon, as many of the huge global institutions have gone bankrupt and the world has turned to a social welfare system, especially in the days of quarantine and lockdown. However, the Lebanese crisis began before the pandemic. The Lebanese media has been equipped with psychological weapons to spread poisons against the Lebanese authority, and the scenes of riots, cracking, and insults supported both externally and internally have not ended. These tools perfectly performed their destructive mission.
The Lebanese economic crisis is due to an external decision taken by the United States administration, the decision to impoverish and starve. President Trump’s administration prevented the transfer of funds from abroad to Lebanon in dollars, thus receiving the money in Lebanese pounds coincided with the increase in the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound against the dollar. The second step is to prevent Lebanese banks from delivering deposits to depositors in dollars, so the depositor loses more than half the value of the deposits if he/she agrees to withdraw money according to the exchange value determined by the bank. The third step is to prevent international aid to Lebanon, both Arab and foreign. The World Bank has linked aid to Lebanon to crippling conditions such as demarcating the borders with Israel, while insisting on the maritime borders that contain oil but according to international conditions, in addition to keeping the Syrian refugees and passing demands such as resettlement. These conditions thwarted the efforts of the Lebanese delegation to the World Bank.
It is true that the Lebanese system is “democratic,” but the banking system in Lebanon is a “disguised dictatorship.” So the governor of the Banque du Liban is a ruler by his order, it is a detachment from state authority. Article 26 of the Monetary and Credit Law and the Establishment of the Central Bank stipulates that the ruler enjoys the broadest powers to manage the Central Bank and conduct its business. Consequently, no one is capable of stopping or putting an end to the governor of the Banque du Liban. The Central Bank has its own authority, which is independent of the rest of the Lebanese authorities. The governor of the bank exercises his authority alone and in some cases within agencies, but the final decision is up to him. The governor has acquired broad powers and continues to aspire to expand his powers even more despite the total economic collapse in Lebanon. The role of the governor’s four deputies is advisory and does not affect the ruler’s decisions. He appoints and dismisses employees and the implementation of the Monetary and Credit Law depends on him. The Lebanese law granted the bank’s governor many and wide powers, and he also became the custodian of the state’s financial and monetary policies.
Some point out that Lebanon is a cash-sufficient country, and the Lebanese state possesses immovable capital that pumps huge amounts of money, and I support this proposal. The Lebanese banks are filled with huge amounts of money from local, Arab and international depositors, in addition to the permanent remittances of expatriates, which constitute a vital economic artery to Lebanon in dollars. Consequently, the ruler’s suggestion that Lebanon is a collapsed and economically bankrupt country is a fragile part of the US scenario, which aims to “impoverish and starve” the Lebanese people by draining the Lebanese market of dollars by means previously mentioned, and then co modifying the dollar and manipulating its exchange rate. Every Lebanese banker who has agreed to implement these unfair economic decisions against Lebanon is a traitor and worse than the enemy against the Lebanese people. Honour requires stepping down and not behaving in the dark tunnel.
The official Lebanese system has always been directly or indirectly loyal to the West, for France was the guardian of Lebanon, and it is the country that granted Lebanon its independence, and a large group of Lebanese are still associated with this state. France is still morally present in Lebanon. The deteriorating political situation forced French President Emmanuel Macron to personally come to Lebanon and gather all political leaders and draw up a road map. Lebanon has been linked economically with the Arab Gulf states, as these countries were the main financiers for Lebanon in the reconstruction, financing of economic projects and the promotion of tourism. A large part of the Lebanese workforce is in the Gulf countries, as they transfer money in US dollars to Lebanon. Saudi Arabia, for example, was a sponsor of national reconciliation in the past, and it called for the Taif Agreement to end the Lebanese civil war, and the Lebanese government’s presidency has a moral connection with Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Saudi satisfaction is a permanent condition for the formation of governments in Lebanon. The US is the party with the greatest influence through Lebanon’s financial links and banking laws. The US has an economic and political moral force that greatly affects Lebanon. The current crisis that Lebanon is going through is mainly related to decisions of the US administration, just as it is the case with Venezuela, Iran and others.
Unfortunately, despite Lebanon’s historical ties with its Western allies, the recent decision was to abandon Lebanon and pursue a policy of impoverishment and starvation against a culturally, religiously and socially diverse country. A true friend is at a time of adversity and difficulties. It has become evident that Lebanon is nothing more than a tool in the hands of the West to achieve goals and pass interests in the Middle East. It seems that this tool is no longer useful and it has been abandoned. However, in the eastern part of the globe, states, governments and peoples have never followed the path of domination and imposing decisions on their friends, and I particularly mention the Chinese state. China’s foreign policy stipulates the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of others, respect for the sovereignty of other countries and mutual benefit. All powerful countries in ancient and contemporary history enslaved people, plundered wealth, and widened the rift between them and the poor countries. However, it is clear that China does not aspire to be a pole or to rule the world alone as the US and its predecessors did. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that China aspires to build a “participatory society with a shared destiny.”The Chinese state takes into account the interest of all nations and is therefore not selfish.
Lebanon has a bitter and unsuccessful experience with the West. The established alliances with most Western capitals led to economic collapse and catastrophic failure on all levels. On the other hand, the Chinese were and are still open to a partnership with Lebanon. Chinese Ambassador to Lebanon Wang Kejian indicated that China is open to partnering with Lebanon on the condition of formal governmental cooperation with the Chinese side. The most important Western and Arab capitals are moving east and expanding their economic and political relations with the Chinese, but it seems that Lebanon is forbidden to go east. The US decision was taken years ago to prevent Lebanon from allying with the Chinese or establishing a strategic partnership because that contradicts US interests, taking into account the geopolitics of Lebanon on the borders with Syria, Israel and the Mediterranean. The Lebanese government had previously requested a postponement of the partnership with the Chinese, while the neighbouring countries from all sides were flocking to partner with China, to name but a few: Egypt, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and others.
Some Lebanese still prefer everything coming from the West. This bad habit has brought the homeland through a dark tunnel, and a segment of the Lebanese is still insistent on partnering with the West and believes that there is no point in partnering with eastern countries. Lebanon at this stage lies in the abyss. It is not in an alliance with the East and is mortgaged to the West. This reality should not continue. Therefore, a bold decision must be made, either total dependence of the West and complete surrender or alliance with the East, thus replacing the Western allies with Eastern allies while retaining some Friendships and good relations with Western countries that respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and do not interfere with its internal affairs. My vision is that the only way out for a new Lebanon is through new alliances and a new system that will hand over the reins of affairs to specialized youth, away from political and official interference. This coincides with the proposal of the Chinese delegation regarding its partnership with Lebanon.
We do not have to wait and waste time. The time factor has become negative for Lebanon. It worsens the deterioration of the economic situation. I turn to His Excellency the President of the Republic to take this frank message into consideration, “The salvation of Lebanon is to go east and reach out to the Chinese.” On the election of the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed him with a message on November 4, 2016 stating, “I attach great importance to developing Sino-Lebanese relations in order to make joint efforts with you to further develop friendly relations and mutual cooperation between China and Lebanon, which is beneficial on the two countries and the two peoples better.”The Chinese are open to cooperation, but this partnership will not become a reality except with official Lebanese cooperation, as Ambassador Wang Kejian pointed out. The issue of the Lebanese-Chinese partnership will remain present and we will not stop calling for it until it turns into a full partnership and that the Lebanese-Chinese relations rise to the level of the extraordinary relationship.