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Nagorno-Karabakh: A Case Study Of Conflict Leading To Globalization

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Karabakh

“ How conflict and casualties of Nagorno-Karabkh lead to globalization?”

In this research paper one will go through the history of the two states and their role during the Soviet Era.One will also undergo the casualties faced by the troops on the both sides, Armenians as well as Azeris. Two Wars fought by Armenia and Azerbaijan other than the conflict that has occurred on the cause of negative Nagorno-Karabakh. One will discuss the role of Russia and Turkey in the peacekeeping and how these countries globalized to seek resolution for the conflict. One will also go through the role of United Nations and Pakistan in a very brief manner. Factors leading to resolution will also be discussed.

HISTORY

The mountainous territory of Nagorno and Karabakh having Armenian Christian majority and ruled by Muslim Azeri ruler, called, Khan. It is in south west of Azerbaijan. In early 1800s, control was passed to Russian Empire and then to Soviet Union following Bolshevik revolution in 1918 after World War I. After World War I, in the middle of confusion and chaos pf Russian civil war, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence. From then the real conflict originated. There was often clash for territories among two states. Nagorno-Karabakh was one of them. Russia called a territory Caucasus, was surrounded by red army. Stalin being native of that area. Borders of Karabakh were assigned in 1923 and Nagorno-Karabakh sovereign territory became a part of Azerbaijan S.S.R(Soviet Socialist Republic). Due to this settlement an area called Naxcivan came into being which is sandwiched between Armenia and Iran but, does not define properly, the border of Azerbaijan. At that time Nagorno-Karabakh was claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In 1918 ethno-religious rigidity arose between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thousands of Muslims were assassinated. Azerbaijan seek aid from Great Britain to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh.

WAR OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH (1920)

In 1920 a war was fought between Azerbaijan and Armenia for Nagorno-Karabakh. It all began when Armenia unpredictably launched attacks. But due to bad co-ordination the attacks failed badly and city of Shusha, Armenia was shattered into pieces.

THE SOVIET ERA

In July 1920, Soviet Union without any plebiscite decided the faith of Karabakh. It was decided to merge Karabakh in to Armenia, but later on this plan was cancelled. Many decisions were made to relocate the territories during the times of Stalin in 1923. Azeri people were largely discriminated by dominant Armenian population.

 WAR OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH (1991)

On September 26, 1991 Soviet Union dissolved which resulted in 15 independent republics. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent states. Military action between two countries continued and it was impacted by Russia. This war caused many casualties and both countries suffered harsh consequences. Thousands of people died on both sides. Countries like Russia, Kazakhstan and Iran tried mediation, even UN tried to resolve the issue which advanced to peace talks. In 1993 UN asked Armenia for ceasefire. Turkey deployed its forces on Armenian border to threaten Armenian forces forceasefire was signed but most of territory was still under Armenian forces. But this region is internationally known as Azerbaijani territory but it was under Armenian forces since 1994.

TOWARDS RESOLUTION(1994)

The search for solution to conflict was complicated due to territories political yearning and hope.

Territory of Nagorno-Karabakh announced independence in 1992 and held several elections yet it was not free from forces of the sides.

In 2008, Armenian president Serzh Sarkisyan and Azeri president signed a pact so intensify the efforts towards resolution. Despite of the efforts, many clashes occurred during 2010s.

Four days of war

In April 2016 there was a wave of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This war continued for four days but it was very destructive. It caused many deaths of military troops as well as civilians. More than 30,000 people were killed on both sides since 1992.

In 2019, new government came in Armenia after long term ruler Serzh Sarkisyan. But, there was disintegration in diplomacy which lead to a huge conflict in 2020.

NAGORONO-KARABAKH WAR OF 2020

July 12 2020, on the day of Sunday, conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan was once again initiated. Initial conflict initiated in Province Tavush in Armenia and Tovuz district in Azerbaijan, at the borders of two states. Armenia and Azerbaijan, both countries accused each other of re-engaging in the conflict. Ganja gap, a route that is economic, energy and transport corridor of Azerbaijan. Armenia , in that region revived its old military checkpoint. According to a source it was revealed that scrimmage was initiated by Armenia. This ignition disrupted the function of Ganja gap. These skirmishes caused many casualties. Many people went homeless, many died including military personnel and civilians.

OPERATION IRON FIST

War of 2020 is named as “Operation Iron Fist” by Azerbaijan. It was an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was ignition of the past unresolved conflict. Armed confrontation began on September 27, 2020 on the line of control. Armenia and Azerbaijan, both announced martial law, and mobilization was also introduced by Armenia. Turkey, in order to increase its scope of influence supported Azerbaijan militarly. In this war types of modern warfare were used. Heavy artillery, drones and long range missiles were used. United Nations vigorously accursed both countries and advised for ceasefire.

PEACE TREATY

After the occupation of Shusha which is 2nd  largest occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh a peace treaty was signed between two countries with help of Russian President. On 10th  November 2020. It was decided in the peace treaty that Azerbaijan would keep the territory it occupied and Armenia will return the areas that it occupied in past (1994).

BREACHING OF PEACE TREATY

On November 26 2020, peace treaty was breached when 3 Azeri servicemen were killed Armenian forces. Same steps were followed on December 8, when another person was killed by Armenian forces. Russian peace keeping forces also witnessed breaching of ceasefire on December 11th.

TURKISH AND RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPING (PATH TOWARDS GLOBALIZATION)

Russia have good ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia as well and it had to defend Armenia in the recent conflict Russia contributed 2000 servicemen for peacekeeping mission. It was part of ceasefire agreement. ICRC was accompanied by Russian peacekeeping forces in collecting the dead bodies of people and soldiers. Turkey and Russia signed a memorandum for creating a monitoring center in Azerbaijan. Both countries are going to work together to enhance the phenomenon of “Globalization” Turkish parliament approved the request for deploying peacekeepers in Azerbaijan, the motion got approval. Turkish excavator came to Azerbaijan. Turkish defense minister and minister of foreign affairs of Russia agreed that both countries will work remotely in the monitoring center. On December 16th, 136 Turkish land troops were deployed in Azerbaijan. Further, Turkey has religious and ethnic ties with Azerbaijan. They also have some historical ties. Back then when Turkey was Ottoman empire it helped Azerbaijan regain independence from Russia in 1918.

Pakistan and Turkey are great allies. Pakistan firmly supported Azerbaijan on the cause of Nagorno-Karabakh.

This support influenced the diplomacy of Pakistan greatly.

CONFLICT LEADING TO GLOBALIZATION

 We saw how two countries globalized for peace process. Role of United Nations, Pakistan, Iran, Syria is worth mentioning. This conflict lead to globalization of many countries of world which  lead to resolution of the conflict.

 TOWARDS TRIUMPH

After the conflict that has continued for more than a century, even after ceasefires, conflict finally came to an end in 2020 when Azerbaijan was announced victorious after more than two wars  on the cause of disputed territories. Azeri people commemorated this triumph with great joy and vigor.

CONCLUSION

Conclusion of all this above held argument was that to describe the role of the two states in the conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan and Armenia have been facing many casualties since past times. More than two Wars were fought between the two countries. first war did not provide any fruit to either of the state but the second war which was initiated by Armenia itself decided the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Second war which was initiated in 2020 came with outcomes, Azerbaijan as the victor will Armenia as the loser. Control of Nagorno-Karabakh and other disputed areas was given to Azerbaijan subsequently peace Treaty which was signed between the two States with assistance of Russia. Wars are never joyous after-shots of War are unpredictable. The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan also resulted in many casualties including the death of many troops as well as civilians on both sides and destruction of houses and many buildings.

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Eastern Europe

Ukraine’s EU-integration plan is not good for Europe

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Late this summer, Estonia, in the person of its president, Kersti Kaljulaid, became the first EU country to declare that Ukraine remains as far away from EU membership as it was after the “Revolution of Dignity” – the events of 2013-14 in Kiev, which toppled Ukraine’s vacillating pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych. Shortly after, the ambassador of Estonia’s neighbor, Latvia, in Ukraine, echoed Kaljulaid’s statement, although in a slightly softer form. This came as unpleasant news for the current authorities of Kiev, especially amid the celebration of Ukraine’s 30th independence anniversary and the “Crimean Forum,” which, according to President Zelensky’s plan, was supposed to rally international support for the country in its confrontation with Russia. However, during the past seven years, Ukraine has been a serious problem for the EU, which is becoming increasingly hard to solve.

Back in 2014, the Kremlin’s response to the overthrow of its ally, Yanukovych, was just as harsh as to the coming to power in Kiev of pro-Western elites. Without firing a single shot, Russia annexed Crimea, a major base for the Russian Black Fleet, and populated by a Russian-speaking majority, many of whom sincerely welcomed the region’s reunification with Russia. Meanwhile, a civil war broke out in Ukraine’s also Russian-speaking southeast where the local separatists were actively supported by Moscow. Europe then realized that it was now necessary to ramp up pressure on Russia and support the budding democratic transformations in Ukraine. However, the country’s successive pro-Western presidents, Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky, who shared European values, have since failed to achieve any significant results in European integration. Moreover, they became enmeshed in US electoral scandals and the war of compromising evidence, and they do not create the impression of being independent figures. Moreover, they were consistently making one mistake after another. In two major battles with separatists near Debaltsevo and Ilovaisk in 2014-15, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered a crushing defeat, despite the upsurge of patriotism backed by US and European support. The closure of the borders with Russia has divided families and left tens of thousands of people without jobs. An inept language policy and rabid nationalism split the Ukrainian nation, which had just begun to shape up, with wholesale corruption plunging the country into poverty.

In their clumsy effort to prove their adherence to European values, Petro Poroshenko, and after him Volodymyr Zelensky, both made clumsy attempts to prove their adherence to Western values, starting to prioritize the interests of the country’s LGBT community. As a result, gay people were given prominent positions in the country’s leadership, and the square outside the presidential palace became the venue of almost weekly gay pride parades. This open disregard for the conservative values ​​of the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians led to an even greater split between the ruling elites and the nationalists, who are now at loggerheads with the Zelensky administration on many issues – another gigantic problem hindering Ukraine’s European integration.

The fact is that Ukrainian nationalism has old and very controversial roots. Starting out as fighters for independence, the Ukrainian right-wingers quickly joined the camp of Hitler’s admirers and committed a number of serious war crimes not only in Ukraine proper, but on the territory of neighboring Poland as well. Their heirs now honor Hitler and Ukrainian collaborationists, deny many crimes of Nazism and espouse anti-Semitic views that are unacceptable for Europe. Moreover, they do not see Russia as their only enemy, actively provoking conflicts with the Poles and accusing them of the “genocide of the Ukrainians” during the 1930s in the territories that until 1939 were part of the Polish state.

In the course of the seven years of Ukraine’s “pro-Western turn” the local right-wingers, who already represented an organized force, were reinforced by veterans of the Donbass war, members of the country’s military and security forces. They were long regarded by the Washington as important allies in the fight against Russia, failing to see real neo-Nazis hiding under patriotic slogans. Now it is exactly these people, who are breaking up gay parades in Kiev and crippling LGBT activists. They feel no need for European values because they take much closer to heart the legacy of the Third Reich. Thanks to visa-free travel to Europe, they have become regulars, and often the striking force of neo-Nazi gatherings from Germany to Spain. They are ready to kill refugees from the Middle East and burn synagogues. Moreover, some of them have retained ties with their Russian neo-Nazi brethren, who, although in deep opposition to Vladimir Putin, continue to propagate the idea of superiority of the Slavic race.

President Zelensky and his administration are smart enough to distance themselves from the local right-wingers. Moreover, they are detained, and sometimes their rallies are broken up by police (albeit without any consequences for the leaders). Even though the ultra-nationalist Right Sector lost their seats in parliament in the last elections, they retained their hard-core base and influence. De facto neo-Nazi leaders maintain good contacts with the outwardly liberal presidential administration and are thus immune from prosecution. They also go to Europe, where right-wing sentiments are very popular.

Meanwhile, President Zelensky continues to pointlessly lose soldiers along the “contact line” with separatists, unable to “be strong with his weakness” and establish a full-fledged truce in a war he does not yet want to win. As a result, more and more illegal arms are seeping into the country’s central regions from the frontlines and many soldiers, fed up with the war, are now joining the ranks of right-wing militants! These are by no means pro-European activists. They will be just as happy to beat up LGBT members and destroy a refugee camp as the Russian embassy. The authorities simply cannot fight them in earnest because the ultranationalists have too many supporters in the state apparatus and too many activists capable of plunging Kiev into chaos in a matter of hours. Small wonder that such post-Soviet countries as Estonia and Latvia, which themselves had problems with both nationalism and the justification of local collaborationists, were the first to raise their voices criticizing Kiev.

Well, Ukraine could and should be viewed as a potential new EU member. However, it must be forced to root out Nazism, instead of holding staged gay prides in downtown Kiev just for show to demonstrate the elites’ adherence to European values! Otherwise, we would have a faction of real neo-Nazis in the European Parliament, compared to whom any members of the European Far Right would look like moderate conservatives. In addition to stamping out corruption, President Zelensky needs to eradicate neo-fascism, which threatens Europe just as it does his own country. Only then can we talk about European integration. Meanwhile, we have to admit that, just as the Estonian president said, seven years of “European democracy” have not brought Ukraine one step closer to the United Europe…

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Prospects of Armenia-Turkey Rapprochement

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Potential Armenia-Turkey rapprochement could have a major influence on South Caucasus geopolitics. The opening of the border would allow Turkey to have a better connection with Azerbaijan beyond the link it already has with the Nakhchivan exclave. Moscow will not be entirely happy with the development as it would allow Yerevan to diversify its foreign policy and decrease dependence on Russia in economy. The process nevertheless is fraught with troubles as mutual distrust and the influence of the third parties could complicate the nascent rapprochement.

Over the past month Armenian and Turkish officials exchanged positive statements which signaled potential rapprochement between the two historical foes. For instance, the Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan said that he was ready for reconciliation with Turkey “without preconditions.” “Getting back to the agenda of establishing peace in the region, I must say that we have received some positive public signals from Turkey. We will assess these signals, and we will respond to positive signals with positive signals,” the PM stated. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara could work towards gradual normalization if Yerevan “declared its readiness to move in this direction.”

On a more concrete level Armenia has recently allowed Turkish Airlines to fly to Baku directly over Armenia. More significantly, Armenia’s recently unveiled five-year government action plan, approved by Armenia’s legislature, states that “Armenia is ready to make efforts to normalize relations with Turkey.” Normalization, if implemented in full, would probably take the form of establishing full-scale diplomatic relations. More importantly, the five-year plan stresses that Armenia will approach the normalization process “without preconditions” and says that establishing relations with Turkey is in “the interests of stability, security, and the economic development of the region.”

So far it has been just an exchange of positive statements, but the frequency nevertheless indicates that a certain trend is emerging. This could lead to intensive talks and possibly to improvement of bilateral ties. The timing is interesting. The results of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war served as a catalyzer. Though heavily defeated by Azerbaijan, Armenia sees the need to act beyond the historical grievances it holds against Turkey and be generally more pragmatic in foreign ties. In Yerevan’s calculation, the improvement of relations with Ankara could deprive Baku of some advantages. Surely, Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance will remain untouched, but the momentum behind it could decrease if Armenia establishes better relations with Turkey. The latter might not be as strongly inclined to push against Armenia as it has done so far, and specifically during the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. The willingness to improve the bilateral relations has been persistently expressed by Ankara over the past years. Perhaps the biggest effort was made in 2009 when the Zurich Protocols were signed leading to a brief thaw in bilateral relations. Though eventually unsuccessful (on March 1, 2018, Armenia announced the cancellation of the protocols), Ankara has often stressed the need of improvement of ties with Yerevan without demanding preconditions.

Beyond the potential establishment of diplomatic relations, the reopening of the two countries’ border, closed from early 1990s because of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Turkey’s solidarity with and military and economic support for Azerbaijan, could also be a part of the arrangement. The opening of the 300 km border running along the Armenian regions of Shirak, Aragatsotn, Armavir, and Ararat could be a game-changer. The opening up of the border is essentially an opening of the entire South Caucasus region. The move would provide Armenia with a new market for its products and businesses. In the longer term it would allow the country to diversify its economy, lessen dependence on Russia and the fragile route which goes through Georgia. The reliance on the Georgian territory could be partially substituted by Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey route, though it should be also stressed that the Armenia transit would need considerable time to become fully operational.

Economic and connectivity diversification equals the diminution of Russian influence in the South Caucasus. In other words, the closed borders have always constituted the basis of Russian power in the region as most roads and railways have a northward direction. For Turkey an open border with Armenia is also beneficial as it would allow a freer connection with Azerbaijan. Improving the regional links is a cornerstone of Turkey’s position in the South Caucasus. In a way, the country has acted as a major disruptor. Through its military and active economic presence Turkey opens new railways and roads, thus steadily decreasing Russian geopolitical leverage over the South Caucasus.

As mentioned, both Ankara and Yerevan will benefit from potential rapprochement. It is natural to suggest that the potential improvement between Turkey and Armenia, Russia’s trustful ally, would not be possible without Moscow’s blessing. Russia expressed readiness to help Armenia and Turkey normalize their relations, saying that would boost peace and stability in the region. “Now too we are ready to assist in a rapprochement between the two neighboring states based on mutual respect and consideration of each other’s interests,” the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said. Yet, it is not entirely clear how the normalization would suit Russia’s interests. One possibility is that the Armenia-Turkey connection would allow Russia to have a direct land link with Turkey via Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, here too the benefits are doubtful. The route is long and will likely remain unreliable. For Russia trade with Turkey via the Black Sea will remain a primary route.

Presenting a positive picture in the South Caucasus could however be a misrepresentation of real developments on the ground. The Armenian-Turkish rapprochement is far from being guaranteed because of ingrained distrust between the two sides. Moreover, there is also the Azerbaijani factor. Baku will try to influence Ankara’s thinking lest the rapprochement goes against Azerbaijan’s interests. Moreover, as argued above, Russia too might not be entirely interested in the border opening. This makes the potential process of normalization fraught with numerous problems which could continuously undermine rapport improvement.

Thus, realism drives Turkish policy toward Armenia. Ankara needs better connections to the South Caucasus. Reliance on the Georgian transit route is critical, but diversification is no less important. The results of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war present Turkey and Armenia with an opportunity to pursue the improvement of bilateral ties. Yet, the normalization could be under pressure from external players and deep running mutual distrust. Moreover, the two sides will need to walk a tightrope as a potential blowback from nationalist forces in Turkey and Armenia can complicate the process.

Author’s note: first published in caucasuswatch

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Tighter Ties with China Signal Ukraine’s Multi-Vector Foreign Policy

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Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Ukraine is eager to cut deals with China as it confronts the West’s moves to allay Russian concerns. Whether Kyiv’s moves are a sign of a larger foreign policy adjustment or just a bluff aimed to mitigate faltering ties with the EU and the US, they could beget big consequences.

‘Chinese Card’

On June 30, Ukraine touted an agreement with China, which proposes revamping the country’s decrepit infrastructure. The decision comes following a US-German resolution to finish the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite longstanding concerns of Kyiv and other CEE nations. Yet, perhaps the biggest motivation was the growing unwillingness in the West to advance Ukraine’s NATO/EU aspirations.

The current state of affairs pushes Ukraine to find alternatives in foreign policy. China, with plenty of cash and political clout, comes as an obvious choice resulting in the signing of the bilateral agreement in June. The document outlines China’s willingness to invest in railways, airports, and ports, as well as telecommunications infrastructure across Ukraine. But otherwise, the agreement details few specifics.

The available details from the deal fit comfortably into the pattern China has been following across Eurasia. For example, China signed similar deals with Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia among others, demonstrating its willingness to penetrate those states’ vital infrastructure. Still, the documents can be also characterized as an umbrella agreement that serves as a roadmap rather than an accord listing concrete details and commitments.

The China-Ukraine agreement is all the more surprising as Kyiv rebuffed earlier this year a Chinese proposal to buy a Ukrainian aerospace company, Motor Sich.

Nevertheless, there are several reasons behind the rapprochement. First and foremost, it is about Ukraine adjusting its foreign policy stance to the state of economic relations. China is now Ukraine’s biggest single-country trade partner outstripping Russia and having a 14.4 percent share of the country’s imports and 15.3 percent of its exports. Perhaps fearful of possible Chinese countermeasures over the Motor Sich decision, Kyiv has been open to mending ties with Beijing with the June agreement.

Secondly, it paves the way for a more active role in China’s near-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims at connecting China with the European market across the heart of Eurasia. Ukraine was among the first to endorse the initiative but has avoided signing memorandums on cooperation similar to what China has done with many others.

More immediately, the tilt toward China follows Kyiv’s decision to remove its name from an international statement about human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang. While Ukraine initially joined the initiative, together with 40 other states, Kyiv abruptly changed its mind on June 24. It has been confirmed that the withdrawal followed Chinese threats to limit trade and deny access to COVID-19 vaccines for which Ukraine had already paid.

Multi-Vector Policy

Some larger geopolitical dynamics are also at play, such as Kyiv’s attempt to acclimate to the changing world order and the growing global competition between Beijing and Washington. In this environment, Ukraine might want to carve out an equidistant place between the two powers so as to avoid possible backlash from siding clearly with either of them.

As such, Ukraine appears to be embarking on a multi-vector foreign policy. It would allow Kyiv to alleviate its dependence on the West and seek lucrative economic and political ties with large Eurasian states. Put simply, relations with the West did not deliver on the expected benefits. The country was not offered NATO or EU accession, while the collective West’s consistent concessions to Russia undermine Ukraine’s interests. Ukraine has also often tended to look at China and other Eurasian powers from the ‘Western perspective’, which limited its options.

In Kyiv’s understanding, elimination of this obstructive dependence would enable it to find new partners able to bring in investments and ideally political support in multilateral organizations. China undoubtedly can be such a partner.

Kyiv’s calculations are more understandable when taken in view of its larger diplomatic readjustment in the region. For example, Ukraine recently began building closer relations with another Eurasian power in Turkey. When Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky visited Istanbul in April 2021, nascent bilateral military ties were seen as a new chapter in the countries’ relations. Most indicative of this shift, a memorandum was signed on the creation of joint defense-industrial projects, which includes joint development of unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine.

The story of Turkey could serve as a microcosm, whereby Kyiv displayed that it is more interested in balancing the pressure from Russia and mitigating the failures in its pro-Western foreign policy course. Ukraine thus foreshadowed its increasingly multi-vector foreign policy as a solution to its geopolitical problems. In Kyiv’s understanding, rapprochement with China and Turkey could mitigate threats emanating from Russia as both Beijing and Ankara enjoy closer ties with Moscow, but nonetheless consider it a competitor.

The multi-vector foreign policy for Ukraine however does not mean abandoning its pro-Western cause. It rather involves seeing its NATO/EU aspirations as complementary with the closer economic ties with China and others. It will require an agile foreign policy and leveraging the country’s geopolitical assets.

New Type of Bilateral Relations 

Ukraine’s behavior might herald the birth of what could be characterized as a Eurasian model of bilateral relations. Across the continent, the notion of traditional alliances is being gradually replaced by partnerships. Devoid of formal obligations, China, Iran, Turkey and Russia find more space for interaction and see a larger pool of opportunities across the vastness of the supercontinent. Bigger maneuverability makes their foreign policy more agile in finding a common ground for cooperation.

The Eurasian model is a byproduct of an evolving global order in which each state with geopolitical influence recalibrates its foreign ties to fit into the post-unipolar world. Russia and China officially refuse to have an alliance – indeed, they claim an alliance would undermine their purportedly benevolent intentions toward one another. More specifically, the concept relates to how China sees the future world order. It opposes alliances – the ‘relic’ from the Cold War era.

Thus, the shift in Kyiv’s foreign policy could be part of this Eurasian trend where Ukraine seeks to construct its Asia policy which would better correspond to the unfolding China-US competition, Asia’s economic rise, and most of all, the failure to become a NATO or EU member state.

Reality Check

However, closer ties with China and most of all the dependence on Beijing’s investments also involves risks. China’s infrastructure projects are mostly financed through loans, which poorer and weaker countries are unable to repay. Often, ownership of the sites ends up in Chinese hands.

Chinese involvement in Ukraine’s critical infrastructure could also risk giving control over strategic technologies to Beijing, which would be channeled to China and successfully used to advance Chinese interests.

For Kyiv, dependence on Beijing also involves risks because of China’s close partnership with Russia. Dangers could be manifested in a concerted pressure on Ukraine in international organizations, or even China heeding Russian fears and abandoning infrastructure projects which would harm Russian interests.

The June agreement is an umbrella deal that lays out the foundation for deeper cooperation, but in no way guarantees its fulfillment. This could mean that Ukraine only sought to restore worsening bilateral relations with China following the Motor Sich saga. Alternatively, Kyiv might merely be trying to raise stakes in its stagnated relations with the West and hold Washington to account, signaling that it can successfully navigate between geopolitical poles if need be. One way or another, China looks set to play a bigger role in Ukraine‘s foreign policy.

Author’s note: first published at chinaobservers

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