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Nagorno-Karabakh: A Case Study Of Conflict Leading To Globalization

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“ How conflict and casualties of Nagorno-Karabkh lead to globalization?”

In this research paper one will go through the history of the two states and their role during the Soviet Era.One will also undergo the casualties faced by the troops on the both sides, Armenians as well as Azeris. Two Wars fought by Armenia and Azerbaijan other than the conflict that has occurred on the cause of negative Nagorno-Karabakh. One will discuss the role of Russia and Turkey in the peacekeeping and how these countries globalized to seek resolution for the conflict. One will also go through the role of United Nations and Pakistan in a very brief manner. Factors leading to resolution will also be discussed.

HISTORY

The mountainous territory of Nagorno and Karabakh having Armenian Christian majority and ruled by Muslim Azeri ruler, called, Khan. It is in south west of Azerbaijan. In early 1800s, control was passed to Russian Empire and then to Soviet Union following Bolshevik revolution in 1918 after World War I. After World War I, in the middle of confusion and chaos pf Russian civil war, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence. From then the real conflict originated. There was often clash for territories among two states. Nagorno-Karabakh was one of them. Russia called a territory Caucasus, was surrounded by red army. Stalin being native of that area. Borders of Karabakh were assigned in 1923 and Nagorno-Karabakh sovereign territory became a part of Azerbaijan S.S.R(Soviet Socialist Republic). Due to this settlement an area called Naxcivan came into being which is sandwiched between Armenia and Iran but, does not define properly, the border of Azerbaijan. At that time Nagorno-Karabakh was claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In 1918 ethno-religious rigidity arose between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thousands of Muslims were assassinated. Azerbaijan seek aid from Great Britain to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh.

WAR OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH (1920)

In 1920 a war was fought between Azerbaijan and Armenia for Nagorno-Karabakh. It all began when Armenia unpredictably launched attacks. But due to bad co-ordination the attacks failed badly and city of Shusha, Armenia was shattered into pieces.

THE SOVIET ERA

In July 1920, Soviet Union without any plebiscite decided the faith of Karabakh. It was decided to merge Karabakh in to Armenia, but later on this plan was cancelled. Many decisions were made to relocate the territories during the times of Stalin in 1923. Azeri people were largely discriminated by dominant Armenian population.

 WAR OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH (1991)

On September 26, 1991 Soviet Union dissolved which resulted in 15 independent republics. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent states. Military action between two countries continued and it was impacted by Russia. This war caused many casualties and both countries suffered harsh consequences. Thousands of people died on both sides. Countries like Russia, Kazakhstan and Iran tried mediation, even UN tried to resolve the issue which advanced to peace talks. In 1993 UN asked Armenia for ceasefire. Turkey deployed its forces on Armenian border to threaten Armenian forces forceasefire was signed but most of territory was still under Armenian forces. But this region is internationally known as Azerbaijani territory but it was under Armenian forces since 1994.

TOWARDS RESOLUTION(1994)

The search for solution to conflict was complicated due to territories political yearning and hope.

Territory of Nagorno-Karabakh announced independence in 1992 and held several elections yet it was not free from forces of the sides.

In 2008, Armenian president Serzh Sarkisyan and Azeri president signed a pact so intensify the efforts towards resolution. Despite of the efforts, many clashes occurred during 2010s.

Four days of war

In April 2016 there was a wave of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This war continued for four days but it was very destructive. It caused many deaths of military troops as well as civilians. More than 30,000 people were killed on both sides since 1992.

In 2019, new government came in Armenia after long term ruler Serzh Sarkisyan. But, there was disintegration in diplomacy which lead to a huge conflict in 2020.

NAGORONO-KARABAKH WAR OF 2020

July 12 2020, on the day of Sunday, conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan was once again initiated. Initial conflict initiated in Province Tavush in Armenia and Tovuz district in Azerbaijan, at the borders of two states. Armenia and Azerbaijan, both countries accused each other of re-engaging in the conflict. Ganja gap, a route that is economic, energy and transport corridor of Azerbaijan. Armenia , in that region revived its old military checkpoint. According to a source it was revealed that scrimmage was initiated by Armenia. This ignition disrupted the function of Ganja gap. These skirmishes caused many casualties. Many people went homeless, many died including military personnel and civilians.

OPERATION IRON FIST

War of 2020 is named as “Operation Iron Fist” by Azerbaijan. It was an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was ignition of the past unresolved conflict. Armed confrontation began on September 27, 2020 on the line of control. Armenia and Azerbaijan, both announced martial law, and mobilization was also introduced by Armenia. Turkey, in order to increase its scope of influence supported Azerbaijan militarly. In this war types of modern warfare were used. Heavy artillery, drones and long range missiles were used. United Nations vigorously accursed both countries and advised for ceasefire.

PEACE TREATY

After the occupation of Shusha which is 2nd  largest occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh a peace treaty was signed between two countries with help of Russian President. On 10th  November 2020. It was decided in the peace treaty that Azerbaijan would keep the territory it occupied and Armenia will return the areas that it occupied in past (1994).

BREACHING OF PEACE TREATY

On November 26 2020, peace treaty was breached when 3 Azeri servicemen were killed Armenian forces. Same steps were followed on December 8, when another person was killed by Armenian forces. Russian peace keeping forces also witnessed breaching of ceasefire on December 11th.

TURKISH AND RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPING (PATH TOWARDS GLOBALIZATION)

Russia have good ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia as well and it had to defend Armenia in the recent conflict Russia contributed 2000 servicemen for peacekeeping mission. It was part of ceasefire agreement. ICRC was accompanied by Russian peacekeeping forces in collecting the dead bodies of people and soldiers. Turkey and Russia signed a memorandum for creating a monitoring center in Azerbaijan. Both countries are going to work together to enhance the phenomenon of “Globalization” Turkish parliament approved the request for deploying peacekeepers in Azerbaijan, the motion got approval. Turkish excavator came to Azerbaijan. Turkish defense minister and minister of foreign affairs of Russia agreed that both countries will work remotely in the monitoring center. On December 16th, 136 Turkish land troops were deployed in Azerbaijan. Further, Turkey has religious and ethnic ties with Azerbaijan. They also have some historical ties. Back then when Turkey was Ottoman empire it helped Azerbaijan regain independence from Russia in 1918.

Pakistan and Turkey are great allies. Pakistan firmly supported Azerbaijan on the cause of Nagorno-Karabakh.

This support influenced the diplomacy of Pakistan greatly.

CONFLICT LEADING TO GLOBALIZATION

 We saw how two countries globalized for peace process. Role of United Nations, Pakistan, Iran, Syria is worth mentioning. This conflict lead to globalization of many countries of world which  lead to resolution of the conflict.

 TOWARDS TRIUMPH

After the conflict that has continued for more than a century, even after ceasefires, conflict finally came to an end in 2020 when Azerbaijan was announced victorious after more than two wars  on the cause of disputed territories. Azeri people commemorated this triumph with great joy and vigor.

CONCLUSION

Conclusion of all this above held argument was that to describe the role of the two states in the conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan and Armenia have been facing many casualties since past times. More than two Wars were fought between the two countries. first war did not provide any fruit to either of the state but the second war which was initiated by Armenia itself decided the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Second war which was initiated in 2020 came with outcomes, Azerbaijan as the victor will Armenia as the loser. Control of Nagorno-Karabakh and other disputed areas was given to Azerbaijan subsequently peace Treaty which was signed between the two States with assistance of Russia. Wars are never joyous after-shots of War are unpredictable. The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan also resulted in many casualties including the death of many troops as well as civilians on both sides and destruction of houses and many buildings.

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Eastern Europe

Crisis in Armenia Provides Fertile Ground for Russian Meddling

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The immediate cause came on February 25, when Onik Gasparyan, Chief of General Staff of the Armenian Army, and other senior commanders released a statement calling for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to step down. Pashinyan responded by firing Gasparyan.

Yet the real cause of the uproar is Armenia’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War last year, which has triggered a deeply troubled and long-drawn-out period of soul-searching and consequent instability.

Delving into the details over what are the real reasons and who is to blame may anyway be futile in the cloudy political world of all three South Caucasus states (including Georgia and its current woes). While many Armenians believe that the protests are more about internal democratic processes, there is an undeniable geopolitical context too. Perhaps what matters most is the international ramifications of the conflict, especially as the early phases of the Russian-brokered November 2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan are now being implemented.

The political crisis in Armenia does not affect the implementation of the agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February 26. Other statements by the Russian leadership indicated that the Kremlin, which closely follows the internal development of its Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) ally and the fellow member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), is nevertheless remaining aloof for now.

Over the past year, Russia has confronted multiple crises along its border with some finesse, successfully managing near-simultaneous crises in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia-Azerbaijan.

In each case, the Kremlin has sought to extract geo-economic benefits. Take the current Armenian crisis. The opposition has some support, but not as much as the current leadership. Leaders from both sides have connections with senior Russian leaders, albeit the Kremlin was far more comfortable with the pre-Pashinyan Armenian political elite. They understood what Russia likes in the near-abroad – cautious leaders mindful of Russian sensitivities and unwilling to play the reformist and Western cards that Pahinyan has used since coming to power in 2018.

And yet however much illiberal Russia feels uncomfortable with the reformist Pashinyan government, it needs for now because his signature is on the November ceasefire agreement. With the early stages of the deal being implemented, Russia is keeping its eyes on the prize — most importantly, the agreement to reopen Soviet-era railways which potentially will reconnect Russia to Armenia via Azerbaijani territory. Chaos in Armenia can only jeopardize this key aim.

Russia also understands that Pashinyan is becoming increasingly dependent as time goes by and that it can exploit this vulnerability. Equally obviously, the opposition could prevail, and that would ultimately benefit Russia too.

In the long run, Russia has caught Armenia in a cycle. To stay in power, the government would need extensive Russian economic, diplomatic, and perhaps even military support. But any new government formed by the current opposition would likely demand even more weaponry from Russia to prepare for the next confrontation, however hypothetic, with Azerbaijan. In both cases, the price for more arms would likely be deeper integration of Armenia within the EEU. And whatever remained of Armenia’s policy efforts towards the West, already under grave pressure since the Karabakh defeat, would die.

Potentially, there is a yet-greater reward for Russia – persuading Azerbaijan to allow the Russian peacekeeping mission to remain on its soil beyond the end of 2025. In which case, an openly revanchist Armenian government formed by an opposition determined to build a battle-ready military capable of offensive operations would be a useful tool for the Kremlin to justify the continued presence of its units in Karabakh.

Author’s note: first published in cepa.org

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Caspian: Status, Challenges, Prospects

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An Analysis into the Legal Classification, Security and Environmental Concerns, Geopolitics and Energy Flow Impact of the Caspian Plateau

How has the world’s largest inland body of (salty) water escaped the economic and political notice for so long? And it is for a resource-rich area of a unique locality that connects Europe and Asia in more than just geography. Simply, the Caspian Basin is an underrated and underexplored topic with scarce literature on its geomorphology, mineral deposits and marine biota, its legal disputes, pipeline diplomacy,environmental concerns and overall geopolitical and geo-economic interplays.

As the former Minister of the Canadian government and Secretary General of the OECD – Honorable Donald J Johnston – states in the foreword, Caspian – Status, Challenges, Prospects“is a fitting title for a book that masterfully gives an objective, comprehensive overview of the region. The authors have compiled an analysis of Caspian’s legal classification, security and environmental concerns, geopolitical scenarios, and energy flow impacts as they affect the world’s largest continental landmass – Eurasia.”

From comprehensive but content intensive insights on Caspian littoral states Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Russiaand Turkmenistan, to external actors like Turkey, EU, China and the United States, readers are presented how separate actors and factors interact in this unique theater. The book elaborates on the legal classification of the Caspian plateau including the recent ‘Convention on Legal Status of the Caspian,’ to the numerous territorial and environmental security concerns.

Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic and his co-authors present Caspian as the most recent, fresh and novel way, in one stop-shop offering broad analysis on the Caspian region. It is a single volume book for which extensive information is exceptionally rare to find elsewhere. Following the read, authors are confident that a new expanse of scholarly conversation and actions of practitioners will unfold, not only focused on Caspian’s unique geography, but its overall socio-economic, politico-security and environmental scene.

Welcoming the book, following words of endorsements have been said:

The Caspian basin and adjacent Central Asian region (all being OSCE member states, apart from Iran) have, since the early Middle ages, acted as a crossroads between different civilizations and geopolitical spaces. In an increasingly interconnected world, growing geopolitical competition, economic interdependence and the emergence of new global challenges, particularly those related to water, energy and the climate emergency, have highlighted the relevance of this region, making it of increasing interest to researchers and academics. This book presents a thorough analytical compendium of historical factors, political dynamics, economic trends, legal frameworks and geopolitical interests which underpin, but also affect, the stability and development of this complex, diverse and strategically significant region.

Amb. Lamberto Zanier,Secretary-General, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (2011-2017)  OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (2017-2020)

A thoughtful, comprehensive and balanced analysis of the complex interplay between geopolitics and geo-economics in Central Eurasia, and pivotal energy plateau – that of Caspian. We finally have an all-in reader that was otherwise chronically missing in international literature, which will hopefully reverse the trend of underreporting on such a prime world’s spot.   

Hence, this is a must-read book for those wondering about the future of one of the most dynamic and most promising regions of the world and what it could entail for both reginal and external players. 
Andrey Kortunov Director General, Russian International Affairs Council

Although of pivotal geopolitical and geo-economic importance, Caspian energy plateau represents one of the most underreported subjects in the western literature. Interdisciplinary research on the topic is simply missing.  

Therefore, this book of professor Bajrektarevic and his team – unbiased, multidisciplinary, accurate and timely – is a much-needed and long-awaited reader: A must read for scholars and practitioners, be it from Eurasia or beyond.

It is truly a remarkable piece of work!  

Authors were able to tackle a challenging subject with a passion, knowledge and precision, and turn it into a compelling, comprehensive yet concise read which I highly recommend.   

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Kazakhstan Erzhan Kazykhanov, Ambassador Embassy of Kazakhstan, Washington dc, USA 

ARTNeT secretariat is pleased to see how our initial invitation to Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic to present at the ARTNeT Seminar Series in 2015 evolved. The talk was initially published as a working paper for ARTNeT (AWP 149). Now Prof. Bajrektarevic, in collaboration with another two co-authors, offers a comprehensive study on a nexus of legal, security, and environmental issues all emanating from and linked to energy cooperation (or lack thereof) in the subregion. This volume’s value extends beyond the education of readers on the Caspian Basin’s legal status (e.g., is it a sea or a lake?). It is just as relevant for those who want a more in-depth understanding of an interplay of economic, security, and political interest of players in the region and outside. With the global institutions increasingly less capable of dealing with rising geopolitics and geo-economic tensions, more clarity – even if only about some aspects of those problematic issues – should be appreciated. This volume offers such clarity.   

Mia Mikic, Director UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP) ARTNeT coordinator

It is my honor to reflect on this work on Caspian. Comprehensive and content rich, this book of professor Anis H. Bajrektarevic and his co-authors brings up comprehensively all the useful information on Caspian, with the geographical and historical background and cultural, economic as well as security aspects related to it.

Authors’ novel and unbiased approach shall certainly help decision makers in their bettered understanding of the region that has centuries-long history of peace and cordial neighbourly relations. Long needed and timely coming, I warmly recommend this reader to those who want to know, but more importantly to all those who want to understand, this pivotal region of the world.

Ali Asghar Soltanieh Former Ambassador of Islamic Republic of Iran to United Nations and other International Organizations in Geneva & Vienna

The book by Professor Bajrektarevic and his co-authors embodies a wide-ranging overview of the intertwined interests pursued by the young democracies of the Caspian basin, battling with inherited land and water disputes, and their interplay with regional and global powers. Apparently, supporting political independence of the formers and promoting their integration into the latter’s markets requires adequate analyses, timely outreach policies and consistent engagement. In this sense the publication serves as one of the scarce handbooks to understand diverse interests of stakeholders, dynamically changing security architecture of the region and emerging opportunities of cooperation around the Caspian Sea.

Ambassador GalibIsrafilov Permanent Representative to the UN Vienna and to the OSCE Embassy of Azerbaijan to Austria

Caspian: Status, Challenges, Prospects

An Analysis into the Legal Classification, Security and Environmental Concerns, Geopolitics and Energy Flow Impact of the Caspian Plateau

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Eastern Europe

As Georgians Fight Each Other, Russia Gleefully Looks On

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Earlier today, the leader of Georgia’s major opposition party – United National Movement (UNM) – was detained at his party headquarters by government security forces, the most recent escalation in a drawn-out political crisis. This could well be the beginning of a new troubled period in the country’s internal dynamics, with repercussions for the country’s foreign policy.

The optics favor the opposition. Images of armed and armored police storming UNM’s headquarters was damaging to the ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD). Western diplomats expressed grave concern over the events and their repercussions. Protests have been called, and will likely be covered closely in Western media.

What comes next, however, is not clear.

Much will depend on what long-term vision for the country the opposition can articulate in the aftermath of the most recent events. It was not that long ago that UNM was declining as a political force in Georgian politics. There is a real opportunity here. But the burden is on the opposition to make a play for the loyalty of voters beyond its circle of already-convinced supporters.

Appealing to ordinary Georgian voters is ultimately the key to resolving the crisis. Beyond the intra-party clashes about the legitimacy of the most recent elections, there is a growing chasm between political elites and the challenges faced by people in their daily lives. And tackling these challenges successfully will not be easy.

Both the ruling party and the opposition have been facing declining support from the public at large. Long-term economic problems, which have been greatly exacerbated by the pandemic, have not been credibly addressed by either side. Instead of solutions, both sides have engaged in political theatrics. For many voters, the current crisis is more about a struggle for political power, rather than about democracy and the economic development of the country. No wonder that most people consider their social and economic human rights to have been violated for decades no matter which party is in power. These attitudes help explain high abstention rates during the most recent election. Despite remarkable successes in the early years after the Rose Revolution, Georgia has lacked a long-term policy for reimagining its fragile economy since its independence and the disastrous conflicts of the 1990s.

None of this, however, should minimize the threats to Georgian struggling democracy. Today’s arrests reinforce a longstanding trend in Georgian politics: the belief that the ruling party always stands above the law. This was the case with Eduard Shevardnadze, Mikheil Saakashvili, and is now the case with the current government. For less politically engaged citizens, plus ça change: Georgian political elites for the last 30 years have all ended up behaving the same way, they say. That kind of cynicism is especially toxic to the establishment of healthy democratic norms.

The crisis also has a broader, regional dimension. The South Caucasus features two small and extremely fragile democracies – Armenia and Georgia. The former took a major hit last year, with its dependence on Moscow growing following Yerevan’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War. Today, Russia is much better positioned to roll back any reformist agenda Armenians may want to enact. Armenia’s current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been weakened, and easily staged protests are an easy way to keep him in line.

Georgia faces similar challenges. At a time when Washington and Brussels are patching things up after four years of Trump, and the Biden administration vigorously reiterates its support for NATO, Georgia’s woes are a boon for Moscow. Chaos at the top weakens Georgia’s international standing and undermines its hopes for NATO and EU membership. And internal deadlock not only makes Georgia seem like a basket-case but also makes a breakthrough on economic matters ever more unlikely. Without a serious course correction, international attention will inevitably drift away.

At the end of the day, democracy is about a lot more than finding an intra-party consensus or even securing a modus vivendi in a deeply polarized society. It is about moving beyond the push-and-pull of everyday politics and addressing the everyday needs of the people. No party has risen to the occasion yet. Georgia’s NATO and EU aspirations remain a touchstone for Georgian voters, and both parties lay claim to fully representing those aspirations. But only through credibly addressing Georgia’s internal economic problems can these aspirations ever be fully realized. The party that manages to articulate this fact would triumph.

Author’s note: first published in cepa.org

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