A major military conflict has infused in the heart of Asia. And this conflict may affect neighboring countries or the whole region. From the strategic view point, the area is much significant for both the countries. China has control of the Aksai Chen and east of Ladakh region and wants to build a road to connect its province Xinjiang and Western Tibet. It is a tri-junction between Bhutan, China and India. India has been objecting to China building a road in the region. Both China and India have been patrolling the area from time to time.
Line of Actual Control (LAC) is a rough demarcation of line which separates China controlled territory from Indian controlled territory. The exact area particularly Western Ladakh has remained a disputed zone. Both the sides have established their claims to the territory by militarizing the zone. Both the countries have built airstrips, roads, outpost stations, telephone lines and other infrastructure. The troops of both the side conduct patrolling their side regularly. China claims more than 90,000 km2 in Eastern Himalayan region and 38,000 km2 in the West Himalayas, both of which are disputed by India. The area is a high altitude and sparsely populated, borders Tibet, the home of Buddhist and destination of tourism where the situation is hostile.
India also needs a new route to the mountainous region of Kailash for less time and better travel facilities for Hindu pilgrims. It was also learned that, in November 2019, a new map published by India showed these areas as part of India. Meanwhile, India repealed Article 370 of the Constitution, after which Kashmir and Ladakh lost their former status.
On May 23, media reported that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had relocated 5,000 troops to the Himalayan border running along with Ladakh area of Kashmir. This is not a new development; it is first fatal clash since 1975 and most serious since 1967. The area always remained tense since June 2017 when Indian troops crossed the border and effectively attacked neighboring Bhutan where Chinese roads were being built. During the hostility an Indian officer pushed and fell in to the river Gorge. Then hundreds of troop from both the sides were called and fought with club and rocks.
It is very interesting that, India has now started such interference against Nepal. India unilaterally opened the road between Dharchola in the Indian state of Uttarakhand and Leplikh in Nepal. The road passes through the disputed Kalapani area and was inaugurated on May 8, 2020 by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. Nepal claims Lipoluk as its territory. The land belt of northwestern Nepal is connected to India and China. According to the Nepalese Foreign Ministry, after the end of the Anglo-Nepalese War, all areas east of the Mahakali River, including Lampiadhora, Kalapani and Leplikh, are part of Nepal under the 1816 Sagiuli Treaty.
Nepal has proposed India to resolve the black water issue, but India did not reply. In an immediate response to the Indian action, Nepal published its new political and administrative maps of the country on May 20, 2020, showing Leplikh, Kalapani and Lampiadhora as part of Nepal. Now this controversy has also given a new dimension to cartography. On the same day, the official spokesperson of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Anurag Srivastava, said: “The Government of Nepal released a revised official map of Nepal, which includes parts of the Indian mainland”.
The seriousness of China’s aims can be perceived from the satellite pictures, the significant changes has made at Ningari Ginsa Airport, just 200 kilometers from Lake Pengong. These changes took place over a six-week period, with the airport being expanded and new hangars being opened. J-11 and J-16 fighter jets can also be seen in pictures coming in early May. In addition, on May 25, China declared that it was beginning to repatriate its citizens from India. The announcement was made under the guise of measures to combat the corona virus, although the situation in Ladakh is a clear political one.
Chinese troops have entered in the five areas of Ladakh. Four of them are along the Galwan River and fifth is near Pengong Lake. This is the first time since the Kargil war between India and Pakistan when foreign troops have invaded in disputed territory. During the Kargil war Pakistan had withdrawn its troops because of United States pressure. Now the situation is more critical because Washington did not demonstrate it concerns as it had shown in past. Therefore, the conflict has enormous geopolitical consequent upon the regional states and for the world as well.
China and India are populous states of the world and are nuclear powers too. Both the governments have strong nationalist appearances and their armies have national status markers and pride. The loss of lives during the hostility has made the situation more complicated. Both the sides are accusing each other of violation; it may be much harder to push forward to minimize escalation moves.
In the same times, both the countries have domestic challenges such as the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Although China has controlled the spreading of Corona infection but hundreds of cases are reported in recent days. China has declined its economic relations with United State. On the other hand, India also has been suffering of Coronavirus with almost half million infected people despite of strict lockdown in the country. Indian economy is already falling down since the Coronavirus. India already has worst relations with Pakistan, unsettled border tension with Nepal, uneasy situation with Bangladesh and failure of Afghan strategy. The recent hostility with China is unfavorable for India.
The material balance between China and India is totally different. In 2018, Chinese GDP $13600 billion was five times more than India of $2700 billion. In the same way Beijing has consumed $261.1 billion on its security in 2019, which is more than Indian $71.1 billion. Although India has grown up itself as a major power and a large economy but in fact, it has declined as compare with China. Furthermore, India has made strategic partnership with Chinese rivals particularly with Japan and United States. On the other hand China has strengthened its northern border with Russia. In addition, it is weakening United States authority in East Asia through modernization of military and Maritimes capability. It is amazing that both the sides are escalating tension on Sino-Indian border. A miscalculation from both the sides may lead to beat of war drum.
The rising nationalism around the world and ongoing fragmentation on global trade also will be a test of China-India relationship. China thinks that India is a big challenge to its ambitions of supremacy of Asia. China has been shaping as a regional hegemon and has also been crafting a narrative about its position in the ring of international power distribution. If, People Republic China appears as super power in the region then Chinese and Indian rivalry may turn into new cold-war because India is also seeking dominance in Asia. United States are forging economic and defense relations with India and both India and United States seem as natural ally against China in Asia. On the other hand, China has been attempting to express that its real competition is with United States not with India. It is stated by strategic experts, “The United States no longer enjoys the same hegemonic status as it enjoyed few decades ago”. Its position as a leader of international order is eroding gradually. Its European allies are shrinking their dependency and are revising their policy with United States. Therefore, India will not put all eggs in one basket and it should handle all issues with China by diplomatic way.
However, Modi and Xi never afford the exceedingly complex and long-standing dispute. The clash may deteriorate their economic ties as well, as India is also a big market for Chinese products. The long-lasting clash may grow anti-Chinese sentiments in India with call of boycott of Chinese product. India also can restrict Chinese foreign direct investment. At the same time, China never affords to lose its relationship with India while it is already in trade war with United States during the Coronavirus epidemic. To avert the conflict both the sides should pursue multifaceted strategy including summit diplomacy and the plate form of regional and international institutions such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Asian Development Bank. These institutions can play a vital role to de-escalate of tension and forestall of border violence but cannot address their core issues. If the issue prevails for long time, it would be difficult for their regional neighbors to decide to go with China or India where both the countries are playing on their own strength. It should be handled by purely diplomatic way and with negotiations.
Centenary of the Chinese Communist Party: 100 years of Prosperity and Greatness
Since its establishment, the Communist Party of China has made many national contributions and has become the main engine of Chinese progress since the revolution led by Chairman Mao Zedong and the policy of reform and opening up pursued by Deng Xiaoping up to the era of achievements laid down by current President Xi Jinping. In conjunction with the upcoming centenary of the Communist Party of China on July 1, China will launch the Shenzhou-12 manned spacecraft with three astronauts on board to the Chinese space station, whose construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2022, thus becoming the third country in the world to send humans into space with its own potential. Some political scholars from different backgrounds unanimously agree that the Communist Party is behind modern China, through the wise policy of governance and administration and the modern ideas presented by the philosophers of the Chinese Communist Party in economic and political structures and laying foundations for rational competition with countries and blocs opponents of China.
Within a hundred years, China has the second largest economy and is likely to rank first in the coming years, according to World Bank reports, a strong army that possesses advanced weapons capable of harming the enemy and achieving inevitable victories, a society in continuous prosperity through wise policy in poverty eradication and social welfare strategy, a fair and impartial political leadership. These and other elements of power were enough to transform China into a country that preoccupied the West and slew the most powerful countries. Some consider, out of ignorance, that communism is synonymous with backwardness and oppression, but the reality is otherwise. In communist China, human dignity is preserved and a person has value regardless of whether he/ she is poor or rich, and everyone shares the same rights and duties, in addition to freedom of belief and the practice of religious and social rituals. In some countries, cases of racial discrimination based on skin colour appear, the most recent of which was the George Floyd incident, which stirred the conscience of peoples, and cases of permanent indiscriminate killing and disrespect for public morals, which indicates a loophole in holding national security while claiming to maintain global security and spread the ideas of democracy.
The Communist Party of China has 91 million members from all over China, according to a report by the Xinhua News Agency. This number indicates satisfaction with the party’s performance and the great public turnout to contribute to the promotion of its ideas and principles. But according to my humble Chinese experience, it is not necessary to be a member of the Chinese Communist Party to believe in and defend its principles. This party is linked to national identity and constant struggle, so it is enough for you to be Chinese to be represented by this party. The Chinese Communist Party was founded in 1921 as a political and revolutionary movement by some revolutionaries who laid its foundations and general principles, including Li Dazhou 李大钊 and Chen Duxiu 陳獨秀. These two revolutionary men emerged from the May Fourth Movement of 1919 and joined Marxism after the victory of the Bolsheviks in 1917. During the turmoil across China in the twentieth century, some cadres of the Chinese Communist Party, including Mao Zedong 毛泽东, Liu Shaoqi 刘少奇 and Li Lisan 刘少奇, began organizing trade unions and founding the Chinese Revolution.
The Communist Party of China supervises the organs of government throughout China according to unified organizational rules and a centralized system of government. When this party was established in 1921, China was dominated by cases of political dependency and rampant extreme poverty. The Republic of China was established in 1912, but it was a weak and crushed country with no influence on the international community, and many groups at that time sought secession and independence. On May 4, 1919, the first public protest against the government was attended by more than three thousand students from 13 colleges in Beijing, denouncing the decision of the Versailles Peace Conference, which transferred concessions in Shandong Province from Germany to Japan. Under the banner of the Communist Party, the Chinese people have waged a long struggle to achieve national sovereignty and enhance China’s international standing at all levels. National dignity is not bestowed but gained. Indeed, the Chinese Communist Party has made great sacrifices in order to achieve national dignity and elevate China to the highest ranks.
Currently, all the streets of China are decorated with red banners that read “100”, the 100th anniversary of the founding, with the sickle and hammer emblem representing the Communist Party, and posters of Lei Feng 雷锋, who became a Chinese national hero and symbol no less important than the founding cadres of the Communist Party. Also, giant pictures of Chinese People’s Liberation Army soldiers shouting to go to fight. All these pictures and advertisements raise the national spirit and patriotism of the Chinese people and increase their attachment to the Communist Party, which has become an inseparable part of history, present and future. China has the second largest budget allocated to the military after the United States, which indicates the Chinese leadership’s awareness of the great risks that China can be exposed to in parallel with economic and technological progress. A strong military is an essential part of preserving national sovereignty.
High time for India to Reconsider the One-China Policy
Sino-Indian bilateral relations have seen major challenges in the recent years, beginning with the Doklam crisis to the current pandemic situation. The sugar-coated rhetoric of Beijing proved to be mere duplicity after tensions erupted along the Line of Actual Control where soldiers of both the states clashed in mid-2020, resulting in the martyrdom of several Indian jawans including a commanding officer. The other side also saw several casualties, though Beijing has kept the actual count under wraps. More recently, China suspended the state-run Sichuan Airlines cargo planes carrying medical supplies to India for 15 days citing the deteriorating situation in India due to COVID-19. This was after the Chinese government promised all the necessary help for India to battle the pandemic.
The People’s Republic of China under the leadership of Xi Jinping has been maintaining an aggressive posture with India even while making calls for ‘maintaining peace’. Its support for all-weather friend Pakistan has attained new peaks when it proclaimed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative passing through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, a territory claimed by India, despite New Delhi’s staunch opposition. It is in the light of all these events that the calls of the strategic community in India to review the recognition of One China policy has gained some attention.
India’s Sensitivity versus China’s Duplicity
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) under the Communist Party of China (CPC) claims itself as the only representative of the Chinese nation including the territories of Tibet and Taiwan among others. Any country having formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, also known as Republic of China shall be seen by China as challenging its sovereignty. The same parameter applies to any country recognizing Tibet or similar ‘autonomous regions’ under the Chinese control. This is known as the ‘One China Principle’ or ‘One China Policy’. India was one of the first countries to recognize the PRC in 1949 after the civil war as well as to accord recognition to its occupation of Tibet. However, China claims the whole of India’s Arunachal Pradesh as ‘South Tibet’, a claim that India has always rebuffed. Moreover, it occupies Aksai Chin which it captured during the 1962 war as well as the Shaksgam valley, ceded illegally to it by Pakistan in 1963.
Even after the war and the re-establishment of cordial bilateral relations, China has continued to repeat its illegitimate claims and nibble into India’s territory. India’s protests fell on deaf ears and this is despite India recognizing the One China Policy. India stopped mentioning the policy since 2010 in its public announcements and publications, however, without repealing it. Taking undue advantage of this China pays little concern to Indian sentiments. This view in India, to challenge China’s One China Policy, has been strengthened by aggressive diplomatic postures of China as well as its regular incursions along the disputed border while continuing to support Islamabad on all fronts – overtly and covertly, encircling India.
The government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi refused to give in to the bullying attempts by China by allowing the Army to go ahead with offensive countermeasures against Chinese incursions in 2017 as well as in 2020, in addition to taking measures including banning dozens of Chinese mobile applications. It has also started actively taking part in initiatives like Quadrilateral Dialogue as well as strengthening relations with ASEAN states. However, a dominant section within the strategic community in India feel that these measures are not enough to knock China into its senses.
Challenging the One China Policy
The most significant among the measures suggested in this regard has been to review India’s adherence to the One China policy. In an atmosphere where China does not recognize the One India policy comprising of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territories, experts argue the need of reciprocity. Initiatives such as providing greater global visibility and access for Tibetans including the 14th Dalai Lama, using Buddhist history and traditions as a trump card since New Delhi has the advantage of having the Dalai Lama on its side, provides legitimacy for India unlike China. India can facilitate the appointment of the next Dalai Lama and extend protection for the existing and the next Dalai Lama. The repeal of the recognition for Chinese occupation of Tibet can also send major tremors in Beijing but that seems to be a distant dream. The new democratic Tibetan government under President Penpa Tsering should be given greater official acknowledgment and publicity. India has already taken small steps in this regard by acknowledging the involvement of the elite Special Frontier Force (SFF), majorly comprising of exiled Tibetans, in a game changing operation to shift the balance against China during the recent border crisis. The funeral of an SFF commando attended by a Member of Parliament and leader from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Ram Madhav was an overt signaling to China that Indians are not refraining from openly recognizing Tibetan contributions to the state of India. Another sensitive issue for China is the Xinjiang’s Uyghur Muslims being allegedly tortured and deprived of their basic human rights in the ‘re-education camps’ by the CPC and a state sponsored genocide being carried out against them. India can take up the issue vigorously at international forums with like-minded countries, increasing the pressure on China. Similarly, the pro-democracy voices in Hong Kong, pro-Mongol movements such as the protest against Mandarin imposition in the school curriculum of Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region, can also be encouraged or given moral support. India, a country which upholds its virtue of unity in diversity must take a strong stand against the ‘cultural assimilation’ or ‘liberation’ as the Chinese say. This is nothing but cultural destruction imposed by China using the rhetoric of ‘not being civilised’ and branding the non-Han population as barbaric in China and the regions it illegally occupies.
India can also stir the hornet’s nest by engaging more formally with the Taiwanese leadership. Taipei has always been approached by New Delhi keeping in mind the sensitivities of China in mind. However, it does not have to do so for a power that bullies both the nations with constant threats and provocations by its action. It is a well-known fact that Taiwan is a center of excellence in terms of the semi-conductor industry and high-end technology. Engaging more with Taiwan will not only hurt Beijing, but also will help India counter the strategic advantage possessed by China in terms of being the major exporters of electronic goods and telecommunication hardware to India. India can also attain more self-sufficiency by boosting its own electronics industry using the Taiwanese semiconductor bases. India can use this leverage to shed its overdependence on China in critical sectors, balance the trade deficit to some extent, while also securing its networks from Chinese intelligence. India must also focus on working with the states having stake in the South China Sea such as Philippines and Malaysia who regularly face aggression in their airspace and Exclusive Economic Zones from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces and China’s maritime militia, questioning their territorial sovereignty, imposing the One China Policy. New Delhi must pressurize China by working with the western nations, whose legislators have openly declared support for the Tibetan President in exile, to question China’s occupation of Tibet and attempts at homogenizing the population. Long term measures and strategies will have to be sought to end the dependence on China while seeking alternatives and becoming self-reliant over time.
However, India will face several serious challenges to implement the above-mentioned measures. There is a deep lack of mutual trust among major powers like USA, UK, France and Russia through whom India can build a coalition. The American President Joe Biden is seemingly interested in partly co-operating with China and has a softer stance unlike the former President Trump. Nevertheless, the QUAD is a welcome step in this regard and India must undertake a greater role in pressurizing China through such forums, albeit not openly. India also has a serious issue of possibly having to incur heavy economic losses on having to limit Chinese goods and investments and finding similarly cheap and easy alternatives. These fault lines are exactly what is being exploited by China to its advantage. Thus, the Indian state and its diplomacy has the heavy task of working between all these hurdles and taking China to task. However, since China seems remotely interested in settling the border disputes like it did with its post-Soviet neighbours in the previous decades and instead gauge pressure against India. So, New Delhi will have to pull up its sleeves to pay back China in the same coin.
The views expressed are solely of the author.
Who would bell the China cat?
If the G-7 and NATO china-bashing statements are any guide, the world is in for another long interregnum of the Cold War (since demise of the Soviet Union). The G-7 leaders called upon China to “respect human rights in its Xinjiang region” and “allow Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy” and “refrain from any unilateral action that could destabilize the East and South China Seas”, besides maintaining “peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits”.
China’s tit-for-tat response
The Chinese mission to the European Union called upon the NATO not to exaggerate the “China threat theory”
Amid the pandemic, still raging, the world is weary of resuscitating Cold War era entente. Even the G-7 members, Canada and the UK appear to be lukewarm in supporting the US wish to plunge the world into another Cold War. Even the American mothers themselves are in no mood to welcome more coffins in future wars. Importance of the G-7 has been whittled down by G-20.
Presumptions about the China’s cataclysmic rise are unfounded. Still, China is nowhere the US gross National Product. China’s military budget is still the second largest after the US. It is still less than a third of Washington’s budget to be increased by 6.8 per cent in 2021.
India claims to be a natural ally of the G-7 in terms of democratic “values”. But the US based Freedom House has rated India “partly free because of its dismal record in persecution of minorities. Weakened by electoral setbacks in West Bengal, the Modi government has given a free hand to religious extremists. For instance, two bigots, Suraj Pal Amu and Narsinghanand Saraswati have been making blasphemous statements against Islam at press conferences and public gatherings.
India’s main problem
Modi government’s mismanagement resulted in shortage of vaccine and retroviral drugs. The healthcare system collapsed under the mounting burden of fatalities.
Media and research institutions are skeptical of the accuracy of the death toll reported by Indian government.
The New York Times dated June 13, 2021 reported (Tracking Corona virus in India: Latest Map and case Count) “The official COVID-19 figures in India grossly under-estimate the true scale of the pandemic in the country”. The Frontline dated June 4, 2021 reported “What is clear in all these desperate attempts is the reality that the official numbers have utterly lost their credibility in the face of the biggest human disaster in independent India (V. Sridhar, India’s gigantic death toll due to COVID-19 is thrice the official numbers”, The frontline, June 4, 2021). It adds “More than 6.5 lakh Indians, not the 2.25 lakh reported officially are estimated to have died so far and at best a million more are expected to die by September 2021. The Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that actual Indian casualties may be 0.654 million (6.54 lakh), not the official count of 0.221 million (2.21 lakh as on May 6 when the report was released. That is a whopping three times the official numbers, an indicator of the extent of under-reporting”.
Epidemiologist Dr. Feigl-ding told India Today TV on April, 16, 2021 that “actual number of COVID-19 cases in India can be five or six times higher than the tally right now” (“Actual COVID-19 cases in India may be 5 to 10 times higher, says epidemiologist. India Today TV April 16, 2021).
India’s animosity against China is actuated by expediency. There is no chance of a full-blown war between China and India as the two countries have agreed not to use firepower in border skirmishes, if any. Modi himself told the All-party conference that not an inch of Indian territory has been ceded to China. In May this year, the Army Chief General M M. Naravane noted in an interview: “There has been no transgression of any kind and the process of talks is continuing.”
It is not China but the Quad that is disturbing unrest in China’s waters.
History tells the USA can sacrifice interests of its allies at the altar of self interest. India sank billions of dollars in developing the Chabahar Port. But, India had to abandon it as the US has imposed sanctions on Iran.
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