The change in the US regime has arguably been one of the most erratic moments in the history of the country. Just when the pandemic proved the foreign and fragile nature of the world, the tumultuous transfer of power amidst fears of a rebounding spiral of attacks on the Capitol building made true on the year 2020 leaving its sinister imprint on the following year. However, while the worst is safely behind and the replenished government of the United States is ready to take change under the leadership of President Joseph Robinette Biden, a few marks are left by the preceding government as well. What to make of the situation at hand, rests on both perspective and strategy, the new government chooses to adopt.
The fundamental aspect of Trumps notoriety was the haste-ridden decision-making that was purely described by Mr. Bidden as a ‘decision at whim’; highly unorthodox coming from the Chief of State. Such was a decision in May 2018 when the most unprecedented announcement casted a gloom on global politics. Mr. Trump abruptly pulled US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Under the clauses of the agreement, also known as the ‘Nuclear Deal 2015’, Iran promised to limit its Uranium enrichment to a maximum of 3.67% whilst simultaneously not building any heavy-water facilities for a span of 15 years. The deal, in return, promised economic relief to Iran from the US, European Union and the United Nations.
The sudden departure of US led to a quiver in the relations, not just with Iran, but other nations part of the JCPOA: France, Russia, China, UK and Germany. The result was the expected violations from Iran which resorted to up the ante by enriching Uranium to an estimated 20% purity; a level closer to its pre-deal stage. Moreover, Iran has been vigilant in its retaliation by impeding the inspections dictated by the JCPOA; a move that has alerted the regional countries along with the United Nations Security Council. The Bidden administration faces a challenge to strategize the next move with Iran. While President Bidden has been a popular proponent of the Nuclear Deal, given he was the Vice President to Barak Obama when the deal was originally penned back in 2015. However, the era and circumstances are now drastically different. Iran complied to the deal on the promise of loosening sanctions; a promise that was shattered without any reasonable justification. Iran’s current stance to return to the same Nuclear Deal is quite clear from the statement of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei: “We will assess, and if we see that they have acted faithfully in this regard [Abolished all sanctions], we will return to our commitment [Nuclear Deal]”. President Bidden has been vague on the procedure to return to the deal and it hinges on the strategy adopted to return to the table for negotiations.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration pumped the efforts to end the years long involvement in Afghanistan: peace talks in Doha catalysing the ultimate exit of the United States Army from the terrain of Afghanistan. However, while Mr. Trump visibly showed the impatience to expedite the process before his exit from the office, both the Afghan government and the Taliban have showed minimal interest to speed up the negotiations. Evident from the absence of top leadership of the Taliban Committee from the second round of talks in Doha, the process is dormant and up for a rugged road ahead. The talks were widely advocated yet the swift withdrawal of forces was massively criticised by both the NATO and the Republican Party. Now that Mr. Bidden wield the crown for the republicans, a dilemma is posing as the biggest opportunity masked as the trickiest of puzzles to crack.
As more than 5000 Taliban prisoners have been acquitted by the Ghani-regime on insistence and reassurance from the United States, the promise of a temporary ceasefire is all but a hoax given the current situation. Several journalists, politicians and clerics have been assassinated during the stalled phase of the Doha talks. The recent killing of 21 government officials seriously puts things into perspective regarding the level of sincerity associated to the negotiations and would the violence actually end given the successful negotiations are achieved?
The deadlock faced by the US regime is one to marvel yet dread equally. For one Iran harkens for dismantling all sanctions to return to the nuclear deal while simultaneously building up to its nuclear potential. The ticking clock hangs on US to negotiate fast before the Iranian-government transitions in the upcoming elections in July. Risking a rejection to face a more hardened opposition in place of the Rouhani-regime in Iran could be devastating for the nascent government of Mr. Bidden while accepting the proposition and dropping all sanctions to kickstart the negotiations does not guarantee a safe said either. On the other front, skimming down forces from 13000 in 2019 to mere 2500 with a promise of full retreat from Afghanistan by April is a crisis in its own. With violent escalations and no sign of compliance, a retreat seems futile. However, rescinding the talks could mean another bout of chaotic warfare in Afghanistan. How to wade through each impasse would be a true testament to the legacy of Mr. Joe Bidden.
