EU wants less dependence on US dollar
On January 19 the European Commission released a preliminary plan which is designed to reduce the European Union’s dependence on the US dollar. In addition, the plan signals an intention to protect European companies from Washington-imposed extraterritorial sanctions. As a long-term strategy, it states an intention to “considerably” increase the role of euro as an international currency.
European officials, who are in charge of financial transactions, emphasize that the sanctions and tariff strikes carried out by the Trump administration against potential allies in the past couple of years point to the still high level of Europe’s dependence on the financial system with the American dollar in the center. Washington’s policy «had an outright negative impact on the EU’s and member countries’ capacity to promote their foreign policy interests».
At present, the American currency accounts for more than four fifths of all exchange transactions worldwide. As a result,, if Washington needs to block any financial transactions, all it needs to do is to enter individuals, organizations or countries on the “black list”, which will be sent to all banks across the globe. For fear of losing the possibility of making payments in dollars, an overwhelming majority of companies and financial institutions have to follow instruction from US authorities.
On December 3, 2020 the Directorate General for External Policies of the European Parliament published a special report on orders from the Committee on International Trade which says that «US extraterritorial sanctions against Russia, Iran and Cuba affect the interests of EU countries and are legally groundless». Such measures, the report points out, run counter to WTO regulations, while the American secondary sanctions, which block access to the dollar-based financial system, are estimated by the authors of the document as «a serious challenge to the 27 Union countries».
For a major protection measure the report calls for «increasing the share of payments in euros or terminating cooperation with the US in some areas».Under the document published on January 19, the European Commission expects that a general plan approved in the summer last year to rescue the EU economy from the consequences of coronavirus pandemic, along with the supplementary programs of financial restoration as part of the 7-year budget, will become key to an early consolidation of the EU financial policy. This, in turn, will set the stage for strengthening the international role of the euro.
The “rescue plan” was approved in the amount of 750 billion euros, and, for the first time ever, the EU members agreed to issue a common debt to finance it. It is expected that emission of new bonds, both by individual EU members, and by the Community as a whole, will contribute to «a considerable expansion of liquidity on the EU capital markets» and will attract investors.
While the history of top world reserve currencies goes back several centuries, none of them has ever occupied such a domineering position as the US dollar nowadays. In our time, the only instance of a relatively fast change of reserve currency – from the British pound to the US dollar – took place as a result of two world wars.
Overall, experts are unanimous that a country or a community of countries that claim the role of reserve currency emitter, must possess a large-scale, growing and sustainable economy, a developed financial market, which offers potential investors huge liquidity volumes and a variety of reliable assets, and must guarantee freedom of capital movement. Finally, they must demonstrate readiness and capability to play a leading role in international relations, that is, to have a substantial military and geopolitical weight.
Europe is doing well in terms of nominal economic growth and given the low cost of financial transactions, since reception and dissemination of information is transparent by nature. Meanwhile, even the most ardent supporters of a stronger financial and economic influence of the EU acknowledge that at present «major financial hubs, London and New York, are located beyond the bounds of the EU, while the capital markets within the EU are too segmented», – RBK says.
The euro, despite its 20-year history, has yet to reach the “clear parameters” of a regional currency. On the one hand, by 2019 the euro had made a tangible contribution to the weakening of the positions of the US dollar in global economy. According to the European Commission, at that time already one fifth of global currency reserves was denominated in the single European currency, while «60 countries and territories tie their currencies to it, in one way or other». The euro has also done well on the promising market of “green” bonds, of which nearly half are denominated in the common European currency, according to The Financial Times.
In November last year the inter-bank payments system SWIFT reported that «the dollar for the first time since 2013 ceased to be the most used currency in global payments». In October the system indicated that the dollar accounted for 37,6% of transactions, while the euro — 37,8%. In March payments in dollars made up nearly 45%.Bloomberg says a drop in the dollar rate, and a decrease in dollar payments are the result of crises in trade, an economic slump which was triggered by the pandemic, and “political instability”.
On the other hand, according to The Financial Times, the share of euro in global gold and currency reserves reduced from 23% in 2009 to 20% in 2019. In addition, the euro is now vying for a top currency with both the dollar and the yuan. In nearly ten years, by the end of 2019, The Economist says, debt obligations denominated in yuan had outnumbered the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen. But not the dollar.
For Europeans the number one “obstacle” is the geopolitical one. Despite all statements of late about the expediency of political consolidation, the EU is still far from transforming into an organization somewhat reminiscent of a confederation. Besides, the EU is unable to “exert political influence on other global economic hubs”, including the United States and China.
Judging by the published document, the European Commission hopes to maintain the pace of economic and financial integration which the EU acquired in the course of a joint struggle against the corona crisis. For the first time in history EU members have agreed on the emission of the Community’s common debt. As the USA and China move towards a “cold war” in the financial, commercial and technological spheres, the European currency and financial system as a whole may serve as a ‘safe haven’, a refuge for an ever growing number of countries and businesses which are striving to avoid losses in conducting payments and settlement transactions.
However, if it wants to compete with the dollar and yuan on the basis of parity, the EU ought to make a breakthrough in developing its own financial technology, which is, undoubtedly, one of the key features of authority and sovereignty. Many in Europe tend to interpret Washington’s policies under Trump as America’s bid for changing the global economic layout. And now, the idea of “nationalizing” vitally important technologies is gaining strength in all leader countries.
Europe is terribly behind the USA and China in the development of companies that offer services in managing social platforms, Internet commerce an finances. Bridging this technological gap in a few years is challenging, if not outright impossible. What is making the situation worse is the absence of a common European market of digital technologies and services. Given the situation, what could serve as an effective means of reducing this gap is “re-nationalization” of data – the major resource of the IT industry. In addition, the EU is trying to make the most of its position as a major market for IT giants, and de facto occupy the position of a trend setter in international regulation of their activities. In the future, this may come to signify “globalization” for “own” companies alone and administrative restrictions for “others”.
Echoing this are European Commission proposals concerning the launch of a digital euro under the patronage of the European Central Bank. According to a recent ECB report, the role of the dollar as an international payments currency may diminish considerably, if central banks agree on direct cross-border payments, through exchanging digital currencies.
At present, the European Central Bank is among the top three financial regulators that demonstrate considerable interest in developing block chain technology and introducing digital currencies. As for prospects for reducing dependence on the dollar, a matter of primary concern is the possibility of issuing the so-called Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). What is meant is virtual money, which is controlled by a national, or supra-national, as in the case of the ECB, central bank, and which does not exist in cash but only in the form of information recorded on computer memory chips.
The geopolitical consequences of the start of the emission of a digital euro may acquire fairly huge proportions. As soon as there appeared the first crypto currency – bitcoin, Washington sounded alarm that “America’s foes”, be it governments or non-governmental institutions, could succeed in setting up a financial network totally independent of the US dollar. In this case, the United States would lose a major instrument of non-military pressure, which it could use to influence its competitors and rivals.
Should countries or intergovernmental organizations begin to emit crypto currency, unilateral sanctions will become pointless. Just as a withdrawal of any nation, even as powerful as the USA, from multilateral agreements which hinge upon the threat of imposing sanctions, will make no sense either.
A digital euro undermines such a weighty instrument of US political pressure as the inter-bank payment system SWIFT because it guarantees instant payments without the dollar. 2020 reports said that the European Central Bank had created a working group to look into the possibility of establishing cooperation between national digital currency projects, with the participation of Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and Britain.
On the whole, the euro needs a “solid foundation” if it wants to successfully compete with the dollar and the yuan. The EU common budget should finally reach beyond the bounds of a fund that subsidizes member countries. It is also essential to balance the growth of the Eurozone in terms of its dependence on exports, “and on the corresponding export of capital”.
An agreement on the emission of Europe’s common debt “for the first time inspires hope of creating a substantial reserve of common European debt obligations”. But whether the decision to emit EU bonds will herald the formation of a supra-national ministry of finance is unclear. Until recently, discussions to this effect all but fueled differences in attitude between Eurozone governments.
Nevertheless, the corona crisis has given new impetus to political moods in favor of preserving and strengthening currency sovereignty. European politicians, interested in cementing the international role of the EU, have a good reason for their option in favor of financial and economic agenda. Europe’s dependence on the USA in military area is pervasive,, while in the economic and financial spheres Europe has been pursuing a more independent agenda in recent years. Now, the European Union seems to be nearing a point after which it may make new important steps in this direction.
From our partner International Affairs
Brick By Brick, BRICS Now a New Bridge for a New World
Measuring BRICS in single decades, in 2001, BRIC started as an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, and China; Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill claimed that by 2050 the four BRIC economies would come to dominate the global economy. So South Africa was added to BRIC in 2010. The following countries are now expressing interest in joining: Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Is this now the awakening of BRICS+ or BRICS power?
BRICS+ by 2030 will add dozen new members and carve new indices, and by 2040, it will lead to new intellectualism on geopolitics and socio-economies for the super complex 2050 age of smart living.
Historically, BRICS nations pushed on their people-power agenda over super-power titles. They made extreme value-creation economic models over focusing on powerful military-industrial complexes. They focused on nation-building and avoided special mandates to manage global affairs. They have been on a quest to upgrade them. They were feeding hungry mouths, as they were population rich, constantly up-skilling, and improving value creation as they were SME rich. They kept a steady watch to create multilateralism to uplift humankind.
They, too, made mistakes, as did the rest of the world
In the third decade of the third millennium, come 2020, three transformations erupted. First, futurism changed the rules on the ‘physicality of work’ and created a new imbalance with the ‘mentality of performance’; this has divided the workforce of world; the old system of over a billion commuting daily to the center of a complex maze to arrive daily at the sanctum of the company and create climate change. So now, in response, some 50% of the world’s workforce has chosen to stay away and work remotely in the surroundings of wide-open choices. Furthermore, technology uplifted micro-power-nations and exposed Western economies now stripped naked in bubble baths on slippery floors, they tippy-toe practicing conga-lines
Newly magnified economy: Behold, what microscopes exposed the magnified inner workings of the body. Similarly, the integrated networks have exposed the digital connectivity and working of millions of villages, cities, and nations with additional billions of people to interact, trade, improve grassroots prosperity and create a well-informed and opinionated citizenry. Some 100 years ago, if only 1% of the world’s population knew what was happening, today it is a dozen times more, and by 2030 double again. Why would these numbers change the global economic matrix when translated into micro-trading, micro-manufacturing, and micro-exporting? International opinion today is already strong enough to crush any national opinion of any nation still lingering under the illusion of a self-promoted victory.
When the SME sector already exists within each nation, the global markets are always hungry for good quality goods and services, and the rains of almost free digital technologies make such transformation a quick turnaround. Therefore, mindsets are critically essential; the need to define the difference between the job seeker mindset that builds the organizations and the job creator mindset that originates and creates that organization in the first place.
So what are the lessons, key features, and blueprints in sight?
Mistakes and new lessons: Last many decades, as the new world was rising, Western citizens felt like China experts, and their regular visits to local China towns restaurants in each city misguided them that Laundromat trained Chinese could only produce some chicken fried rice. Ever since the advent of the camera, the East was always projected as poor and dysfunctional; mesmerized by the media coverage during the last many decades, the West was equally convinced that India, a land of only snake charmers and fakirs, finally someday speak better English. The general perceptions about Asia, besides eating rice, if they could ever make cheaper products for the West. The rest is history, mistakes, and lessons.
After the big ding-dong nights of 2000 New Year’s Eve, today’s new story starts from the 20th chapter. Now China and India alone have created some 500 million new entrepreneurs, not by a magic pill or meta-crypto-wand but by National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism, a slow, painful deployment of SMEs across the nation, and by creating mobilization protocols to identify, classify, and digitizing based on multiple factors from type and size to the evaluation of their “respectable” role in future communities and economic factors. This methodology was far more advanced in strategy and stern management over the globalization frenzy from the West, where sudden exporting of manufacturing of the industrial plants to kill manufacturing and destroying the middle class out of the West already declared globalization a great success.
The other mistake is to assume this is an economic or an academic study, at best, like an Oscar Slap on sleepy rotundas occupied with endless printing of money across the Western economies. Instead, this is an entrepreneurial response for the entrepreneurial nations to awaken hidden entrepreneurial talents in up-skilling SMEs and re-skilling manufacturers at national levels.
Recommendations and warnings: No airline can survive with only Flight Engineers and Frequent Flyers stuffed inside the cockpits; that space is only reserved for highly trained pilots. Henceforth, across the world, any economic development of any size, shape, or authority may find other more suitable alternate paths of occupation if they still cannot demonstrate any levels of understanding, applicable skills, or mobilization mastery on the National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism to up-skill exporters and re-skill manufactures and uplift national SME sector as the most prominent economic contributor of the nation. Study the biggest error of economic thinking
Underestimating the hidden powers of early thinking and starting a tiny unknown SME is a mistake of mindsets; here, entrepreneurialism like a saga unfolds, like a voluminous piece of literature but demanding literacy, understanding the job seeker mindsets and the ability to differentiate with entrepreneurial job creator mindset is already winning half the battle. Study the Mindset Hypotheses
Nations failing to realize the power of the billion SME rising in Asia and still unable to declare a national agenda of national mobilization of SMEs now must acquire an understanding of the 4B Factor: a billion displaced due to the pandemic, a billion replaced due to technology, a billion misplaced in wrong jobs now a billion on starvation watch. Furthermore, this 4 billion ever digitally connected mass of people ever in the history of humankind is now the most significant force of global opinion. Notice nations are already intoxicated with joy over the popularity of their national public opinion while having just an opposite international opinion on the world stage.
Recommendation; everyone is born an entrepreneur; our system chips away at this talent. Nevertheless, 10% to 50% high potential SMEs of any nation once are identified, classified, and digitized within 100 days. The uplifting digital platforms of up-skilling exporters and re-skilling manufacturers will result in 10% to 50% quadrupling their performance, productivity, and profitability. Imagine how much-regimented efforts will activate a positive national economic revolution based on real value creation, uplifting grassroots prosperity. How soon is a nation ready for a significant change? The rest is easy.
Promoting Economic Security: Enhancing Stability and Well-being
The stability and well-being of people, communities, and countries are critically dependent on economic security. It covers a range of topics, such as access to necessities, work opportunities, stable incomes, and defense against economic shocks. The need of guaranteeing economic security has increased significantly in the modern world, which is characterized by technical developments, geopolitical shifts, and unexpected disasters. The importance of economic security is examined in this article, along with important tactics for promoting adaptability and preserving people’s quality of life.
The value of economic security to individuals, communities, and countries cannot be overstated. By fostering an atmosphere where people and families can achieve their basic needs without suffering undue stress, it promotes stability. Because of this stability, people can recuperate and start over after severe shocks like economic downturns, natural disasters, or health crises.
Furthermore, economic security contributes to social cohesion by reducing inequality and fostering inclusivity. When individuals feel economically secure, they are more likely to actively participate in society, contribute to their communities, and engage in productive endeavors. This sense of security leads to greater social harmony and a collective feeling of prosperity.
Moreover, economic security is vital for long-term sustainable development. It enables individuals and societies to invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation. These investments drive economic growth, improve overall well-being, and create the foundation for a prosperous future. By ensuring economic security, countries can build resilient and sustainable economies that benefit their citizens and contribute to global progress.
To enhance economic security, several key strategies can be implemented. Firstly, governments and businesses should prioritize diversifying their economies by promoting sectors with growth potential and resilience. By reducing reliance on a single industry or market, countries can mitigate the impact of economic downturns and build a more robust and diversified economy.
Investing in education and skills development is another crucial strategy. Governments and organizations must focus on providing quality education, vocational training, and lifelong learning opportunities. Equipping individuals with the necessary tools and knowledge enables them to adapt to changing economic landscapes and remain competitive in the job market.
Strong social safety nets are necessary to protect people during times of economic upheaval. The most disadvantaged populations should be given priority in the design and implementation of comprehensive social welfare systems by the government. Creating a safety net for all citizens entails implementing programs for income support, healthcare coverage, and unemployment benefits.
Promoting entrepreneurship and innovation can create new opportunities for economic growth and job creation. Governments can support aspiring entrepreneurs by providing access to capital, mentorship programs, and favorable regulatory environments. Embracing technological advancements and fostering a culture of innovation further enhances economic security, particularly in an increasingly digital world.
International cooperation is essential since economic security is a global issue. Cooperation between nations is necessary to advance ethical business practices, lessen economic inequality, and improve financial stability. Initiating discourse, coordinating policy, and assisting nations in economic crises are all important functions of multilateral organizations.
Societies can improve their economic security and create a more secure and prosperous future by putting these strategies into practice: diversifying the economy, investing in education and skills, creating social safety nets, encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation, and fostering international cooperation.
Having economic security is crucial in a world that is uncertain and changing quickly. Governments, corporations, and individuals may all work together to create an environment that promotes economic security by putting a priority on stability, resilience, and inclusivity. We can create a more resilient and prosperous future for everybody through diversity, education, social safety nets, entrepreneurship, and international cooperation. By making investments in financial stability, we build a more just and sustainable world.
The Impact of Globalization on the South Asian Economy
Globalization refers to the process by which economies, societies, and cultures from different countries become integrated with one another. The economies of the countries that make up South-East Asia, which include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, have been significantly impacted by the spread of globalization in recent decades. The effects of globalization on the economies of South Asian countries have been mixed, with some positive and some negative results.
Positive Impacts of Globalization on the South Asian Economy
The expansion of South-East Asia’s trade and investment opportunities is one of the aspects of globalization that has had the most positive impact on the region’s economy. Because of its large consumer base, low labor costs, and strategic location, the region has become an attractive destination for foreign investors. As a consequence of this, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Asia has significantly increased, which has led to the development of new industries and the production of new jobs.
The expansion of the service industry in Sout-East Asia can also be attributed to the effects of globalization. South Asian countries have emerged as a hub for the outsourcing of services such as information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing as a result of the emergence of new technologies and the increased availability of skilled labor (BPO). As a direct consequence of this, the area has benefited from an increase in both the number of available jobs and the amount of money it brings.
Last but not least, globalization has facilitated greater cultural interaction and integration throughout South-East Asia. The region possesses a significant cultural legacy, and the advent of globalization has made it possible for South Asian music, films, and cuisine to become popular all over the world. This has not only contributed to a greater awareness of the region’s cultural heritage, but it has also opened up new doors for the travel and hospitality industry.
Negative Impacts of Globalization on the South-East Asian Economy
Even though there have been some positive effects, there have also been some negative effects that globalization has had on the South Asian economy. The widening gap between rich and poor is one of the most pressing problems that we face today. The advantages brought about by globalization have accrued almost entirely to a relatively small number of people, which has contributed to a widening income gap. As a consequence of this, social unrest and a wider gap in incomes have emerged.
Another significant obstacle that has been presented is the displacement of workers and traditional industries. Due to the effects of globalization, many smaller businesses have been forced to shut down, and their employees have been relocated to larger companies that are more productive. As a consequence of this, there has been an increase in unemployment as well as social unrest, particularly in rural areas.
Globalization has contributed to the deterioration of the environment in South Asia. The region has seen a growth in industries such as the textile industry, both of which have had a significant impact on the environment as a result of their expansion. The population’s health and well-being have suffered as a direct result of environmental degradation, which can be traced back to the increased consumption of natural resources and the improper disposal of waste produced by industrial processes.
The economy of the South-East Asian region has been affected in both positive and negative ways by the phenomenon of globalization. While it has resulted in the growth of industries and increased cultural exchange, it has also resulted in the displacement of workers and the widening of income inequality. While it has contributed to the growth of industries and increased cultural exchange, it has also resulted in the displacement of workers. In order to address these challenges, policy interventions that foster inclusive growth, protect the environment, and create new opportunities for the population will be required. By acting in this manner, countries in South Asia will be able to take advantage of globalization’s positive aspects while mitigating some of its more damaging effects.
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