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Advisors propose new system to regulate China’s overseas investments

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A government-backed coalition of international advisors to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has recommended that China apply more stringent environmental controls over its outbound investments. If adopted, this would be a major departure from China’s usual approach of deferring to host country rules, many of them inadequate, for regulating its overseas investments. 

High-level advisors, including former UNEP chief Erik Solheim and green finance heavyweight Ma Jun, propose a system to categorise Chinese overseas investments based on their polluting, climate and biodiversity impacts.

The classification methodology was published on 1 December at a press conference organised by the BRI International Green Development Coalition (BRIGC) in Beijing. It would see coal-fired power plants given a firm red light, while other types of Chinese overseas investments, such as hydropower and railways would need to implement internationally recognised mitigation measures to earn “green” status. On the other hand, solar and wind power are considered green projects that advance the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.

How would the ratings system work?

The proposal states that BRI investments would be classified as follows:

Red projects require stricter supervision and regulation. These are regarded as creating “significant and irreversible environmental harm” in at least one of the areas of climate change, pollution and biodiversity, or the risk of such harm. Examples include coal-fired power, hydropower, petrochemical, and mining and metal smelting projects.

Yellow projects are environmental neutral with moderate impacts. These cause no significant harm, and remaining harms can be mitigated by affordable and practical measures, on a reasonable scale, within the project itself. Examples include waste-to-energy projects and urban freight transportation with emission standards above Euro IV/national IV standards.

Green projects are encouraged. These have no significant negative impact on pollution, climate change or biodiversity, and contribute positively to at least one of these, particularly if they benefit the aims of international environmental treaties and conventions. Examples include the development and use of renewable energy (wind, solar, etc).

Higher standards

Christoph Nedopil Wang, founding director of the Green BRI Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics and one of the lead authors of the classification methodology, told China Dialogue that the system combines multiple international approaches to green finance.

The categorisation system and an ensuing taxonomy of green, yellow and red projects take inspiration from international standards such as the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy, the Equator Principles and performance standards issued by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank Group. It also uses China’s own guidelines for green credit and green bond issuance as references.

For years Chinese companies and financial institutions working abroad have primarily adhered to the “host country principle” which emphasises compliance with host countries’ environmental and social regulations. The inadequacy of the safeguards in many Global South countries, which make up the majority of BRI participant countries, means that the principle is often used as an excuse to lower standards for China’s outbound investments. This creates a stark contrast between China’s domestic green transition and its footprints across the rest of the world. While clean energy is growing at a breathtaking speed inside China, a large portion of the energy infrastructure Chinese companies are building overseas is coal-based. Many such projects are of the low-efficiency type that China itself has gradually phased out. Biodiversity threats are also a main concern of many of the BRI’s linear infrastructure projects such as railways and roads that intersect with key protection areas. Domestically, China has implemented an ecological redlining system hailed as a model for reconciling development with the conservation of nature.

There are calls on Chinese actors to follow higher standards in their overseas investments, but so far the response has been limited. None of the major Chinese financial institutions involved in overseas lending, for example, has signed on to the Equator Principles, which requires international standards (such as the IFC’s performance standards) to be applied in low-income countries with underdeveloped safeguards. In 2019, major Chinese banks such as China Development Bank and ICBC signed on to the Green Investment Principles (GIP) which call for “acute awareness of potential impacts of investments and operations on climate, environment and society in the Belt and Road region”. But mechanisms to translate such awareness into action are yet to be developed.

“The GIP is more market driven”, comments Nedopil Wang, “while our [proposed system] is much more targeted at the regulators.”  

The system considers three dimensions of a project’s potential environmental footprint: pollution, climate change and biodiversity. Projects that are contrary to the Paris Agreement objectives, such as those which increase emissions or undermine climate mitigation measures, are considered to cause “significant harm”. Similarly, projects that encroach on key biodiversity areas are given a red rating.

The system has some flexibility built in to allow contextual considerations of a project’s environmental merits. Some projects types, such as railways, may initially raise a red flag for their potential high risks to biodiversity. But if developers can credibly demonstrate that mitigation measures are taken to prevent or reduce environmental harms, following international standards, they may get a green classification. However, the original red rating will remain as a reminder of the project’s intrinsic high risk.

The creators believe the two-step classification will better equip the system to respond to complex situations on the ground in most countries along the Belt and Road. “The idea is to make the system adaptive,” says Nedopil Wang, who believes that a black-and-white taxonomy may be too rigid in some circumstances. Therefore, “process standards” which detail how a risk should be managed, are also included.

Risky projects

According to the system, the construction and operation of coal-fired power plants will be given a red rating with no mitigation or compensation measures available to upgrade it. The same applies to the retrofit of coal-fired power plants designed to extend their operating life.

On the other hand, a hydropower station will be given an initial red rating but could earn a green rating if it applies “internationally relevant” hydropower standards for mitigating environmental damage, such as the IFC’s 2015 Hydroelectric Power Standard.

The research team provided an initial classification of 38 project types under 20 sectors, ranging from renewable energy to passenger transport and livestock farming. The grouping of the project types into positive (green), neutral (yellow) and negative (red) lists for the first time creates a simple taxonomy for BRI projects based on their environmental impacts.

“I can see the value of a taxonomy [for BRI projects] which raises environmental awareness for investors,” a Chinese expert familiar with international green finance safeguards, who is not authorised to take interviews, told China Dialogue. “At the very early stage of a project, when you have a project concept note in front of you, a taxonomy may help you make a snap judgment about whether a sector is in line with your strategy or should be excluded in the first place.”

But she cautioned that Chinese overseas projects are often large-scale and such a taxonomy may be too simplistic to capture their complex impacts, particularly social impacts.

Architects of the new system respond that the taxonomy is for demonstration purposes at this stage, created to illustrate how the classification system can be run. They are planning to refine the list with more technical details and application guidelines as a next step. One key recommendation from the advisors is to link the system with more comprehensive environmental impact assessments for red and yellow projects.

Adoption is key

The international team proposing the system also recommends it be embedded into China’s decision-making processes on Belt and Road projects. According to their analysis, central government agencies such as the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) all have power to regulate overseas investment, but currently environmental considerations are not reflected in their approval processes.

“The positive and negative list will provide a foundation for governmental bodies to make sure overseas investment is in line with climate and environmental goals,” says Wang Ye, a green finance analyst with the World Resources Institute (WRI), who co-created the system. One key recommendation from the team is to develop an “exclusion list” of projects irreversibly harming the environment.

Yuan Feng, deputy director general of the NDRC’s Department for Regional Openness, which oversees the development of the BRI, offered his blessing at the press conference where the system was presented.

But Nedopil Wang admits that the appetite of regulators to adopt such a system is hard to gauge. It is noteworthy that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) which hosts the BRIGC, does not have formal regulatory power over project development outside China’s borders.

Experts have also opined that green catalogues, which encourage certain types of investments, are easier for regulators to consider than exclusion lists, which often go beyond their legal authority. China’s own environmental laws have yet to regulate greenhouse gas emissions with binding force, they noted. Positive lists such as the green bond catalogue have so far been the mainstay of domestic actions to steer finance toward greener projects.

There are signs that some regulators might be more receptive of the recommendations. On 25 October, five central government agencies, including the central bank, the MEE and the banking regulator, issued a joint guidance for the country’s financing system to better serve China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal. It specifically encourages financial institutions to support low-carbon development along the Belt and Road.

There is hope that China’s financial sector may adopt the classification system and apply differential treatment to overseas projects: favourable financing conditions for “good practice” projects and stringent conditions for risky ones.

“The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has been involved in designing the system, so that’s a good sign,” Nedopil Wang told China Dialogue. “The de facto application [of the system] really depends on the specific champions within the different regulators.”

“Incorporating environmental risks into policy and finance practices requires these champions to push it relentlessly inside the system, like woodpeckers that always hit the same spot without getting a headache,” he said. “[Adopting the classification system] makes reputational sense and environmental sense for China today. But it requires a really different approach to some of the decision making.”

From our partner chinadialogue

Ma Tianjie is China Dialogue managing editor in Beijing. Before joining China Dialogue, he was Greenpeace's Program Director for Mainland China where he was a regular commentator on China's environmental challenges contributing to a range of media organisations. He holds a master’s degree in environmental policy from American University, Washington D.C.

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Economy

The Future of Work and Skills in 21st Century Economy

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In today’s fast-paced and competitive economy, being specialized in one skill may not be enough to achieve success in your career or personal life. Having specific expertise is essential but it is also crucial to develop a broader set of skills to adapt to changing circumstances, to communicate with diverse people, and to avail new opportunities. The 21st-century economy is evolving swiftly, and along with it, the nature of work and the skills required to succeed are changing. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these changes, ushering in an increased focus on remote work and gig economy. The pandemic has also highlighted the importance of adaptability and agility in the face of disruption. As we navigate this post-pandemic landscape, it is critical to understand the skills that will be in demand in the future and how the current generation can prepare themselves for the challenges ahead.

One of the most significant shifts in the 21st-century economy is the rise of artificial intelligence. We live in a world of self-driving cars, chatbot assistants, and robot servers and cleaners. This transformation is already underway, and it is expected to accelerate in the coming years. The introduction of ChatGPT and Bard has revolutionized everything from education to business to daily life. Since machines are becoming increasingly capable of predictable tasks, human workers will need to focus on skills that machines cannot replicate, such as creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence. According to a report by McKinsey Global Institute, around 375 million workers worldwide may need to switch occupations or learn new skills by 2030 due to workforce disruptions caused by automation and AI. 

Another important trend is the growth of the gig economy and remote work. The pandemic has shown that many jobs can be done from any place, and this trend is likely to continue. The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the trend toward remote work and the gig economy. According to Future Workforce Pulse Report by Upwork, 41.8% of the American workforce was working remotely as of January 2021, up from 30% pre-pandemic. The report anticipated this to rise to 65% in the next 3 years. Due to the lockdown, an increasing amount of people turned to these platforms to continue earning. In its 2020 report, Forbes wrote that the value of a Fiverr share has increased by 356% in 2020 and Upwork recorded a 40% increase in its revenue in the third quarter of 2020. The post-pandemic popularity of platforms like Fiverr & Upwork shows that workers who can adapt to a flexible, remote work environment and have the skills to manage their own time and workload will be in high demand. Meanwhile, the gig economy is anticipated to grow by 17% over the next decade, according to a report by Intuit in 2020.

In addition to these broad trends, there are also specific skills that will be essential to excel in the 21st-century economy. One of the main ones is Digital literacy. As technology continues to play an increasingly central role in the workplace, workers must be comfortable with digital tools and platforms. A person must have sufficient mastery of basic apps and software like Microsoft Office, Canva, Adobe Illustrator, Teams, Zoom, etc. This includes not only technical skills like coding but also the ability to use digital tools to collaborate, communicate, and analyze data. The demand for digital skills is on the rise. A report by Burning Glass Technologies found that in 2020, 71% of middle-skill jobs required digital skills, up from 59% in 2014. McKinsey found out in their 2018 survey that “sixty-two percent of executives believe they will need to retrain or replace more than a quarter of their workforce between now and 2023 due to advancing automation and digitization”. This is evident in recent plans of big-tech firms. Google launched a program called “Grow with Google” to help Americans acquire the digital skills needed for the 21st-century workplace. In 2019, Amazon announced plans to spend $700 million to retrain 100,000 of its employees in skills for the digital age.

Another important skill not to be ignored is communication and collaboration. In a world where remote work and cross-functional teams are the new normal, effective communication and collaboration skills are critical. Workers must be able to communicate clearly and concisely, listen actively, and work effectively with colleagues from diverse backgrounds and cultures. Effective communication and collaboration skills are critical in today’s workplace. The list published by LinkedIn for the most in-demand skills of 2023, ranked communication at number 2 of most demanded skill by companies and hiring managers.

In a rapidly changing economy, workers must be prepared to continually upskill and reskill throughout their careers. This requires a growth mindset and a willingness to embrace new technologies and ways of working. Lifelong learning is becoming increasingly vital to thrive in a professional career. According to a report by the World Economic Forum, 50% of all employees will need reskilling by 2025, and the average employee will need to devote 101 days to reskilling by 2022. It also listed the top skills of 2025, all of them belonging to one of the following four categories: Problem-solving, Self-Management, Working with People, and Technology Use. Many companies are investing in employee training and development programs to meet this need, such as PwC’s “Digital Fitness” program.

 The ability to pivot quickly in response to changing circumstances will be essential in the 21st-century economy. This has been reinforced by the pandemic and volatile global situation. Workers must be able to adapt to new roles, industries, and technologies as needed, and be comfortable with uncertainty and ambiguity. The speed of change in the current era is potentially faster. The major challenge confronting every economy, particularly advanced economies, will be to retrain and dispatch millions of mid-career, middle-aged workers which seems like a daunting task.

Preparing for the future of work will require a joint effort from the people, educators, and employers. People must take responsibility for their own learning and development, seek out opportunities to acquire new skills, and stay up-to-date with industry trends. Educators must adapt their curriculum to prepare students for the changing demands of the workplace, emphasizing digital literacy, communication, and critical thinking skills. Employers must create a culture of learning and development, providing employees with the tools and resources they need to succeed in a rapidly evolving economy.

The future of work is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the skills required to succeed in the 21st-century economy will be different from those that have been valued in the past. Gone are the days when mastering one field guaranteed your professional success. By embracing lifelong learning, cultivating adaptability and agility, and developing the digital literacy and communication skills needed to thrive in a remote, technology-driven workplace, people can prepare themselves for success in the years to come.

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The rise of electrical vehicles and its impact on green economy

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The world is going through a critical change in transportation as the reception of electric vehicles (EVs) speeds up. The ascent of electric vehicles isn’t just reshaping the manner in which we drive yet in addition affecting the worldwide economy and the climate. With the earnest need to moderate environmental change and decrease ozone harming substance discharges, electric vehicles have arisen as a promising answer for progress towards a greener economy.

Electric vehicles offer various advantages over customary gas powered motor (ICE) vehicles. By supplanting non-renewable energy source fueled motors with electric engines and batteries, EVs fundamentally diminish hurtful discharges, including carbon dioxide and air toxins. This decrease in discharges further develops air quality, relieve environmental change, and limit the unfavorable wellbeing impacts related with contamination.

The effect of electric vehicles reaches out past the natural circle. The fast development of the EV market is reshaping different businesses, including car fabricating, energy creation, and framework advancement. Accordingly, this shift is animating monetary development, setting out new position open doors, and filling advancement in clean energy advancements.

In this article, we will dive into the ascent of electric vehicles and investigate their effect on the green  economy. We will inspect the advantages that electric vehicles bring, like diminished discharges and further developed air quality. Moreover, we will examine how the auto business is adjusting to this change, including the development of new players and the speculations made in charging foundation. Moreover, we will examine the effect of electric vehicles on the energy area, especially concerning environmentally friendly power reconciliation and the improvement of shrewd network advancements.

While the ascent of electric vehicles presents promising open doors, it additionally presents difficulties. We will look at the hindrances upsetting their inescapable reception, for example, the underlying significant expense of EVs, range uneasiness concerns, and the requirement for an extended charging organization. By understanding both the likely advantages and hindrances, we can foster a thorough comprehension of the electric vehicle insurgency and its effect on the green economy.

All in all, the ascent of electric vehicles addresses a groundbreaking movement towards a more supportable and harmless to the ecosystem transportation framework. The development of this industry adds to moderating environmental change as well as presents monetary open doors and encourages mechanical advancement. By investigating the different parts of this change, we can all the more likely understand the significant effect of electric vehicles on the green economy and prepare for a cleaner and greener future

1. The advantages of electric vehicles:  

  – Decreased emanations: Electric vehicles produce lower or zero tailpipe discharges contrasted with regular vehicles. They assist with decreasing ozone harming substance outflows and battle environmental change.

   – Further developed air quality: The reception of electric vehicles adds to cleaner air, as they produce no poisons, for example, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter that add to respiratory and medical problems.

   – Diminished dependence on non-renewable energy sources: Electric vehicles decrease reliance on petroleum derivatives, which are limited assets and add to international contentions. They offer the potential for a more economical and energy-different future.

2. The effect on the vehicle business:

   – New players: The ascent of electric vehicles has drawn in new participants to the auto business, including tech organizations and new companies, testing the strength of conventional automakers.

   – Interest in foundation: Electric vehicle reception requires the improvement of charging framework, including public charging stations and home charging arrangements. This speculation animates work creation and business open doors.

 – Fabricating changes: Electric vehicles have various parts and assembling prerequisites contrasted with customary vehicles. This shift requires changes in assembling cycles and supply chains, possibly prompting new position jobs and expertise necessities.

3. The effect on the energy area:

   – Environmentally friendly power combination: Electric vehicles give a potential chance to coordinate sustainable power sources, for example, sunlight based and wind, into the lattice. They can act as versatile energy stockpiling gadgets, taking into account better use of irregular sustainable power.

   – Framework modernization: The far and wide reception of electric vehicles requires an updated and keen matrix foundation to help expanded charging requests and oversee load adjusting successfully.

   – Request reaction and vehicle-to-network (V2G) innovation: Electric vehicles outfitted with V2G abilities can go about as energy stockpiling units, considering bidirectional energy stream between the vehicle and the framework. This innovation offers valuable open doors for request reaction and framework adjustment.

4. The effect on the economy:

   – Work creation: The development of the electric vehicle industry sets out new position open doors in assembling, innovative work, charging framework establishment and upkeep, and related administrations.

   – Diminished reliance on unfamiliar oil: Electric vehicles decline dependence on imported petroleum products, improving energy security and decreasing import/export imbalances related with oil imports.

   – Worked on general wellbeing: Electric vehicles’ lower discharges add to further developed general wellbeing results, diminishing medical services costs related with air contamination related ailments.

5. Difficulties and boundaries:

   – Cost: The underlying price tag of electric vehicles can be higher than that of ordinary vehicles, despite the fact that declining battery costs are making EVs more reasonable.

   – Range uneasiness: Worries about restricted driving reach and the accessibility of charging framework can hinder potential EV purchasers. Be that as it may, headways in battery innovation and the development of charging networks are reducing these worries.

   – Charging foundation: The improvement of a strong and open charging framework network is vital for boundless EV reception. Guaranteeing satisfactory charging choices in metropolitan and rustic regions is fundamental.

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Why Countries are Accelerating ‘De-Dollarization’?

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Trading with local currencies is now a common practice in the world economy. Local Currency Trade (LCT) has gained so much traction that bilateral LCT agreements between countries are now widespread. Particularly in the wake of the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, several middle and small nations are now participating in LCT. Russia and Bangladesh recently announced intentions to repay payments in Yuan in order to get over challenges imposed by US sanctions against Russia. Prior to that, Bangladesh and India had inked an LCT agreement to conduct rupee-based trade. LCT is now preferred in many Eastern nations, not just Bangladesh, India, and Russia. Additionally, there are proposals about creating a new currency to replace dollar trading. In regard to this, it is important to look into the underlying reasons for the de-dollarization. And why the majority of countries in the global south wish to abandon the dollar—the dominant international currency.

De-Dollarization

The term “de-dollarization” refers to the process of shifting away from the use of the dollar in international trade. In order to lower risk and vulnerability in transactions, the dollar has traditionally been used for international trade. In addition, it is a result of US supremacy in terms of soft power and the world economy. De-dollarization is a strategy once used by nations to challenge the US. However, in the Post-Covid period, fluctuating foreign exchange reserves (forex) and the global dollar crisis are some of the main causes driving the current de-dollarization process. Geopolitical rivalry and dwindling confidence in the dollar, however, are also contributing factors at the moment to this process.

De-Dollarization Efforts

Local Currency Trade, or LCT, is a popular de-dollarization approach. LCT refers to cross-border local currency trade. Here, currencies are converted directly based on their exchange rates. The rupee-based trade agreement between Bangladesh and India is an example of LCT.

Aside from LCT, trade-in third currency is currently another aspect of the de-dollarization process. One instance is the repayment between Bangladesh and Russia in the Chinese Yuan. Bangladesh and Russia have decided to use Yuan to settle loans in order to evade US sanctions on Russia’s usage of the global gateway- Swift.

60 countries today are engaged in trading in their respective currencies. It is also being practiced by several of the US’s longtime allies in the global south, like India. India presently has LCT agreements with 19 countries. Saudi Arabia has begun to accept Yuan in the trade of oil. Other Gulf States are thinking about allowing yuan in the oil trade as well. Previously, oil was only sold by Gulf nations in US dollars. However, it appears that they are now thinking about taking additional currencies. Brazil and China have lately announced plans to trade in Yuan.

The idea of creating a new currency is another noteworthy initiative in the ongoing de-dollarization process. To facilitate trade among its members, BRICS has been working to launch a new currency. BRICS presently accounts for 41% of the global population and 31.5% of the global GDP. To decrease its reliance on the dollar, Indonesia is adopting the BRICS model.

Additionally, a new single currency known as the “sur” has been preliminarily adopted in Latin America. Brazil and Argentina, two Latin American giants, want to begin using the currency in their bilateral trade to reduce their dependency on the dollar.

Why Countries are Moving Away from Dollar?

The existing process didn’t happen over the course of a day or a year. Instead, it was a long-term process that lasted the past 20 years. The percentage of global reserves held in dollars is gradually decreasing. According to Bloomberg, the percentage of dollars held in foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 73% in 2001 to 58% by 2023. According to a further breakdown, the representation has decreased by 11% since 2016. And of this, 11%, 8% took place only in one year- 2022.

While the dollar’s portion in global reserves is declining, the Yuan’s stake is gradually increasing and presently ranks fifth in the world with a share of 3%. Yuan has overtaken the Euro as Brazil’s second-largest foreign currency in its forex reserve, which is one of the main drivers behind their LCT deal. China’s portion of the global FX reserve is growing along with its international commerce and investment. Additionally, a lot of nations are beginning to believe in the Yuan as a reliable and trustworthy currency. As a result, many countries are picking the Yuan over the dollar because using the Yuan in international trade also helps the nation keep a balance in its foreign exchange reserves.

In addition, the US has been leveraging its financial system to subjugate its geopolitical adversaries, particularly in the conflicts with China and Russia. This ‘weaponization’ of the currency is eroding international trust. The geopolitical usage of the dollar, which is seen as a universal good, is making the Chinese and Russians nervous. Russia is already prohibited from using Swift, making it difficult for it to conduct business with other countries.

The US administration’s unilateral actions and choices regarding the dollar further exacerbate the current dollar crisis on the global market. The US increased its interest rate eight times in the past year, which led to high exchange rates that affect people who use the dollar around the world. Political Scientist Fareed Zakaria also believes that the US itself is responsible for such a decline in dollar use because of its geopolitical use and weaponization.

However, in addition to geopolitical and trust issues, the de-dollarization process is also driven by high exchange rates and decreasing foreign exchange reserves in developing nations. Economy are already struggling in the post-Covid era and in the context of the crisis in Ukraine. They are turning to LCT to preserve their hard-earned dollars in order to prevent future distress. Additionally, these nations have grown to depend on both Russia and China in a complex manner. Therefore, they cannot simply disregard their commercial relations with these US competitors. They are using either LCT or yuan to keep these trade links going. For instance, Bangladesh pursues a foreign policy that is neutral and balanced toward the major nations. It must pay for a $12 billion nuclear project it has with Russia. So, Bangladesh and Russia are resorting to yuan to avoid sanctions-related complications. Same goes for Brazil, as it intends to utilize its reserve of yuan.

Even though the dollar’s share in global forex is declining, the ideas of launching new currencies are coming forward, trade in yuan is gradually increasing, and LCT are also increasing, Dollar still remains the single largest share holder in the market with 58%, with no eminent competitor. It’s closest competitor, Euro only has 20% share. Therefore, the current process can be termed as an ‘inception’. It is still to early to tell whether the process would end Bretton Wood system or not. Yet, there is no denying that Zakaria believes also, the US itself is to blame for the de-dollarization as it is failing to maintain trust, and has weaponized a public good.

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