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Digitalizing MSMEs in ASEAN Towards Post Pandemic Economy

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The COVID-19 pandemic, which has been ongoing for most of 2020, has had a significant impact on human life.Apart from infecting more than 10 million people and killing 1 Million people worldwide as of today as of this writing (28 October 2020), Initially in the pre-pandemic COVID-19, the world economy is projected to increase 0.4 percent to 3.3 percentin 2020 which was previously 2.9 percent in 2019. Then after the pandemic hit, world economic growth fell to -4.4 percent in 2020 as a result, the COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the global economy.The public health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an economic recession that has the potential to trigger a political and social crisis if not handled properly.

The economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was caused by many businesses closing or reducing their activities to avoid further transmission. As a result, the chain of economic activities such as production, distribution, and consumption is disrupted and results in an economic recession and the number of workers or employees being laid off to reduce production costs, this has resulted in high unemployment and low public consumption because people have to save their expenses considering that the majority have lost their jobs. due to termination of employment as the main source of income.

The impact of the economic recession due to the pandemic that hit all regional regions in the world, including Southeast Asia or ASEAN. Before the pandemic hit, the economy in ASEAN was predicted to grow by 4.7 percent based on an ADB report published in December 2019. Then when COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, economic growth was only 1.0 percent. This is due to a large number of MSMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises) as the backbone of the economy in ASEAN. MSMEs are the largest contributor to the percentage of GDP and employment for each of its member countries. The results of research on six ASEAN member countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei Darussalam) show that MSMEs contribute more than 50 percent of employment and contribute to GDP ranging from more than 30 to 50 percent per year. This shows how important the role of MSMEs is as the backbone of the economy in ASEAN.

MSMEs have limited capital and production capacity so that when the country experiences a recession due to a pandemic, MSMEs also reduce their production output because little or nothing buys their products. After all, consumers reduce their spending more to prioritize buying necessities, as a result, the profit margin is smaller and only can cover production and operational costs. To overcome this, MSME owners reduce their production output and lay off workers or employees which results in increased unemployment, owners will go out of business if these methods are not able to increase the margin of sales results with production costs. Termination of employment for MSME workers because their places of work are out of business or doing efficiency to reduce operational costs has contributed greatly to the high number of new unemployment, for example, the number of newly unemployed in Indonesia reached 9.77 million in August 2020, this number increased by 2.67 million people compared to the same period last year.

Many ASEAN member countries have realized how important the sustainability of MSMEs,and then strengthening their economic resilience because MSMEs contribute to GDP and large absorption of fields. Various short-term stimulus measures have been taken to save MSMEs amid a pandemic have been carried out by all member countries such as extension or postponement of tax reporting deadlines, direct financial assistance such as facilitating the provision of soft capital loans and providing wage subsidies or incentives for MSME employees and owners. Currently, the most important thing is implementing long-term structural steps to maintain the sustainability of MSMEs in the midst of implementing a new life order (new normal) that changes the lifestyle of the consumer community in the post-pandemic. Structural measures require collective effort for all ASEAN member countries because they change the overall structure of MSMEs to go hand in hand with changes in the lifestyle of the consumer society.

THE IMPORTANCE OF UMKM DIGITALIZATION FOR THE ECONOMY

Strengthening MSMEs cannot be separated from the implementation of SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) or Sustainable Development Goal 8 (eight), namely, promoting sustainable, inclusive economic growth and providing full and productive employment opportunities for all people. The presence of MSMEs expands economic goals, which is increasing the number of jobs. The addition of the number of new jobs by MSMEs provides benefits for the poor and vulnerable to get out of poverty and has an impact on increasing community income which brings success in achieving the first SDGs (eradicating poverty), second (ending hunger), fifth (gender equality), eighth itself, and ninth (increasing industrialization and sustainable innovation).

The results of research conducted by Mckinsey & Company suggest long-term steps that need to be taken by policymakers to prepare and encourage MSMEs to rise again. One of the long-term steps that need to be taken is to prepare MSMEs to implement digitalization in carrying out their economic activities again. This step needs to be taken because the COVID-19 pandemic has forced all businesses to close their physical facilities which are the center of their economic activity and online channels are the only way for MSMEs to survive amid limited physical activity to reduce the number of transmissions. The importance of digitalization for MSMEs to increase their income is evidenced by a survey from Mckinsey in 2018 showing 60 to 95 percent of digital income reaches 10 percent of all the largest corporate sectors. If MSMEs take into account a significant share of the region’s economic activity, this means that increased digital capabilities will also have an impact on increasing income.

The effort to digitize MSMEs to be able to adapt in the era of a new life order also faces many challenges. The challenges that must be faced in realizing digitalization include access to supporting infrastructures such as electricity supply, communication and information technology, and adequate internet access, which are very important in the effort to digitize MSMEs. Also, mastery of technology and information capabilities for human resources is something that needs to be considered because digitization and automation applied to all types of businesses including MSMEs can make many people lose their jobs, for ASEAN member countries there will be 878 thousand new unemployed in Malaysia; 4.5 million in the Philippines; 9.5 million in Indonesia; and 2.4 million people in Thailand. The solution to overcoming this problem is to facilitate new job skills training for job seekers and victims of layoffs (termination of employment) and increase funding and collaborate with companies engaged in technology and information to make this happen.

ASEAN STRATEGY IN DIGITALIZING MSMES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

Increasing digital capabilities or digitizing MSMEs is also a major concern for ASEAN which was emphasized at the ASEAN + 3 Summit (China, Japan, and South Korea) and the ASEAN Economic Ministerial Meeting. At the 37th ASEAN Summit in Vietnam on November 12, 2020, all ASEAN member countries agreed to launch the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework (ACRF). The ACRF aims as a coordinated ASEAN strategy that focuses on restoring the critical sectors and vulnerable groups most affected by the pandemic and identifying what actions should be taken in line with regional and sectoral priorities. ASEAN’s attention to the importance of increasing digital capabilities or digitizing MSMEs is reflected in the fourth ACRF strategy which focuses on accelerating inclusive digital transformation and is included in key priorities, namely, providing an online platform and implementing policies related to enhancing digital capabilities. Not only that, improving connectivity is a key priority related to digitizing MSMEs by providing supporting infrastructure and an affordable internet network. Besides, the launch of the ACRF at the 37th ASEAN Summit is an implementation of the 16th SDG which emphasizes international cooperation and an institutional framework in realizing sustainable development. The highest political forum such as a high-level conference (Summit) is a forum that provides political leadership, collective guidance, and recommendations in realizing sustainable development.

To realizing the strategy in these key priorities, there are 3 (three) stages, namely reopening, recovery, and resilience. The reopening stage, namely ACCMSME (ASEAN Coordinating Committee of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise) as an agency in ASEAN that coordinates MSME empowerment agencies in ASEAN member countries, conducts in-depth assessments to identify challenges and policy recommendations to support awareness of technology adoption and relevant digital tools among MSMEs; And supporting the integration of MSMEs into global value chains, including establishing mechanisms to help MSMEs increase exports. The identification results report will be followed by policy recommendations for improving the digital capabilities of MSMEs for ASEAN member countries and special recommendations for less developed member countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam (CLMV) to get assistance from the IAI (Initiative for ASEAN Integration).

In the recovery and resilient stages, ACCMSME will increase the amount and quality of relevant content in the ASEAN SME Academy. The ASEAN SME Academy is an online media portal for digital skills training for MSMEs launched by the US – ASEAN Business Council in collaboration with USAID (United States Agency for International Development) in March 2014. The ASEAN SME Academy aims to provide free training for MSMEs in ASEAN to improve access to financial products, global and regional markets, information services and business input, and technology and innovation. The training content and information in the ASEAN SME Academy are designed by Forbes 500 listed companies such as Google, Cisco, SAP, and HP. Currently, the ASEAN SME Academy is managed by ACCMSME and its presence will be more useful by improvising the amount and quality of content and translating the training content in it into local languages ​​so that it can be accessed by all groups and target more users as the implementation of ACRF’s fourth strategy.

In addition to the improvised development of the ASEAN SME Academy, ACCMSME has also launched the ASEAN Go Digital program in June 2020. This program is a collaboration between ACCMSME and The Asia Foundation and Google. The main objective of this program is to improve information and communication technology capabilities for MSME owners to increase their productivity and individuals who do not have permanent jobs to participate in the digital economy and help senior stakeholders understand the potential of MSMEs in the digital era. The targets of this program are 200 thousand farmers, agricultural cooperatives, home handicraft producers, and owners of other traditional businesses, totaling 200 thousand people across ASEAN. In carrying out this program, ACCMSME has coordinated with its partners consisting of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and government organizations in various ASEAN member countries. The Asia Foundation being the main partner of ACCMSME has a role to play in tailoring the training program so that it meets the needs of each country and suits the local context, and works closely with teams of local technology professionals and volunteers in providing training. Realizing the digitization of MSMEs requires adequate supporting information and communication technology infrastructure, namely the internet. Bearing in mind the low internet penetration in several ASEAN member countries such as Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, it has created inequality among member countries. To overcome this, ASEAN through the ASEAN Digital Senior Officials Meeting (ADGSOM) or the ASEAN Communication and Digital Ministers Meeting and the ASEAN Telecommunication Regulators Council (ATRC) or the ASEAN Telecommunication Regulatory Council will coordinate each of the telecommunications and digital ministries of member countries in implementing efforts to increase internet penetration in rural and remote areas with the new Universal Service Obligation framework (USO 2.0). Also, to ensure internet affordability for all, ADGSOM and ATRC have prepared a regional policy framework in providing transparent and affordable international roaming services.

Empowering MSMEs through increasing digital capabilities is an important priority for ASEAN in its efforts to restore the economies of member countries because MSMEs are the backbone for almost all ASEAN member countries. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has changed the way of life of all people around the world, has made MSMEs have to adapt to maintain their business continuity. Therefore, structural handling is needed in maintaining the continuity of MSMEs as the backbone of the economy, such as cooperation at the regional level such as ASEAN as a forum for cooperation and collective action for member countries in the Southeast Asia region. The policy framework that was launched based on consensus at the 37th ASEAN Summit became a guide for ASEAN agencies related to MSMEs (ACCMSME) and digital connectivity (ADGSOM and ATRC) in coordinating government agencies of each member country involved in increasing digital capacity and digital connectivity infrastructure who supports it. This shows that ASEAN has implemented the 16th SDG which emphasizes international cooperation in realizing development, namely increasing the digital capabilities of MSMEs which are closely related to SDG 8 which promotes inclusive economic growth, and MSMEs are a means of expanding employment opportunities for the poor which are closely related to growth. an economy that is inclusive or has an impact on the people.

Adyuta Banurasmi is a senior year undergraduate student of international relations major at Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Yogyakarta. He has interests on Politics of Development, Political Thoughts, Public Policy, and History.

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Can e-commerce help save the planet?

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If you have logged onto Google Flights recently, you might have noticed a small change in the page’s layout. Alongside the usual sortable categories, like price, duration, and departure time, there is a new field: CO2 emissions.

Launched in October 2021, the column gives would-be travellers an estimate of how much carbon dioxide they will be responsible for emitting.

“When you’re choosing among flights of similar cost or timing, you can also factor carbon emissions into your decision,” wrote Google’s Vice President of Travel Products, Richard Holden.

Google is part of a wave of digital companies, including Amazon, and Ant Financial, encouraging consumers to make more sustainable choices by offering eco-friendly filter options, outlining the environmental impact of products, and leveraging engagement strategies used in video games.

Experts say these digital nudges can help increase awareness about environmental threats and the uptake of solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.   

“Our consumption practices are putting tremendous pressure on the planet, driving climate change, stoking pollution and pushing species towards extinction,” says David Jensen, Digital Transformation Coordinator with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

“We need to make better decisions about the things we buy and trips we take,” he added. “These green digital nudges help consumers make better decisions as well as collectively drive businesses to adopt sustainable practices through consumer pressure.”

Global reach

At least 1.5 billion people consume products and services through e-commerce platforms, and global e-commerce sales reached US$26.7 trillion in 2019, according to a recent UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report.

Meanwhile, 4.5 billion people are on social media and 2.5 billion play online games. These tallies mean digital platforms could influence green behaviors at a planetary scale, says Jensen.

One example is UNEP-led Playing for the Planet Alliance, which places green activations in games. UNEP’s Little Book of Green Nudges has also led to more than 130 universities piloting 40 different nudges to shift behaviour.

A 2020 study by Globescan involving many of the world’s largest retailers found that seven out of 10 consumers want to become more sustainable. However, only three out of 10 have been able to change their lifestyles.

E-commerce providers can help close this gap.

“The algorithms and filters that underpin e-commerce platforms must begin to nudge sustainable and net-zero products and services by default,” said Jensen. “Sustainable consumption should be a core part of the shopping experience empowering people to make choices that align with their values.”

Embedding sustainability in tech

Many groups are trying to leverage this opportunity to make the world a more sustainable place.

The Green Digital Finance Alliance (GDFA), launched by Ant Group and UNEP, aims to enhance financing for sustainable development through digital platforms and fintech applications. It launched the Every Action Counts Coalition, a global network of digital, financial, retail investment, e-commerce and consumer goods companies. The coalition aims to help 1 billion people make greener choices and take action for the planet by 2025 through online tools and platforms.

We will bring like-minded members together to experiment with new innovative business models that empower everyone to become a green digital champion,” says Marianne Haahr, GDFA Executive Director.

In one example, GDFA member Mastercard, in collaboration with the fintech company Doconomy, provides shoppers with a personalized carbon footprint tracker to inform their spending decisions.

In the UK, Mastercard is partnering with HELPFUL to offer incentives for purchasing products from a list of over 150 sustainable brands.

Mobile apps like Ant Forest, by Ant Group, are also using a combination of incentives and digital engagement models to urge 600 million people make sustainable choices. Users are rewarded for low-carbon decisions through green energy points they can use to plant real trees. So far, the Ant Forest app has resulted in 122 million trees being planted, reducing carbon emissions by over 6 million tons.

Three e-commerce titans are also aiming to support greener lifestyles. Amazon has adopted the Climate Pledge Friendly initiative to help at least 100 million people find climate-friendly products that carry at least one of 32 different environmental certifications.

SAP’s Ariba platform is the largest digital business-to-business network on the planet. It has also embraced the idea of “procuring with purpose,” offering a detailed look at corporate supply chains so potential partners can assess the social, economic and environmental impact of transactions.

“Digital transformation is an opportunity to rethink how our business models can contribute to sustainability and how we can achieve full environmental transparency and accountability across our entire value chain,” said SAP’s Chief Sustainability Officer Daniel Schmid.

UNEP’s Jensen says a crucial next step would be for mobile phone operating systems to adopt standards that would allow apps to share environment and carbon footprint information.

“This would enable people to seamlessly calculate their footprints across all applications to develop insights and change behaviours,” Jensen said. “Everyone needs access to an individual’ environmental dashboard’ to truly understand their impact and options for more sustainable living.”

Need for common standards

As platforms begin to encode sustainability into their algorithms and product recommendations, common standards are needed to ensure reliability and public trust, say experts. 

Indeed, many online retailers are claiming to do more for the environment than they actually are. A January analysis by the European Commission and European national consumer authorities found that in 42 per cent, sustainability claims were exaggerated or false.

To help change that, UNEP serves as the secretariat of the One Planet network, a global community of practitioners, policymakers and experts that encourages sustainable consumption and production.

In November, the One Planet network issued guidance material for e-commerce platforms that outlines how to better inform consumers and enable more sustainable consumption, based on 10 principles from UNEP and the International Trade Centre.

The European Union is also pioneering core standards for digital sustainability through digital product passports that contain relevant information on a product’s origin, composition, environmental and carbon performance.

“Digital product passports will be an essential tool to strengthen consumer protection and increase the level of trust and rigour to environmental performance claims,” says Jensen. “They are the next frontier on the pathway to planetary sustainability in the digital age.”

UNEP

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2022: Small Medium Business & Economic Development Errors

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Calling Michelangelo: would Michelangelo erect a skyscraper or can an architect liberate David from a rock of marble? When visibly damaged are the global economies, already drowning their citizenry, how can their economic development departments in hands of those who never ever created a single SME or ran a business, expect anything else from them other than lingering economic agonies?

The day pandemic ends; immediately, on the next day, the panic on the center stage would be the struggling economies across the world.  On the small medium business economic fronts, despite, already accepted globally, as the largest tax contributor to any nation. Visible worldwide, already abandoned and ignored without any specific solutions, there is something strategically wrong with upskilling exporters and reskilling manufacturers or the building growth of small medium business economies. The SME sectors in most nations are in serious trouble but are their economic development rightly balanced?   

Matching Mindsets: Across the world, hard working citizens across the world pursue their goals and some end up with a job seeker mindset and some job creator mindset; both are good. Here is a globally proven fact; job seekers help build enterprises but job creators are the ones who create that enterprise in the first place. Study in your neighborhoods anywhere across the world and discover the difference.

Visible on LinkedIn: Today, on the SME economic development fronts of the world, clearly visible on their LinkedIn profiles, the related Ministries, mandated government departments, trade-groups, chambers, trade associations and export promotion agencies are primarily led by job seeker mindsets and academic or bureaucratic mentality. Check all this on LinkedIn profiles of economic development teams anywhere across the world.

Will jumbo-pilots do heart transplant, after all, economic performance depends on matching right competency; Needed today, post pandemic economic recovery demands skilled warriors with mastery of national mobilization to decipher SME creation and scalability of diversified SME verticals on digital platforms of upskilling for global age exportability. This fact has hindered any serious progress on such fronts during the last decade. The absence of any significant progress on digitization, national mobilization of entrepreneurialism and upskilling of exportability are clear proofs of a tragically one-sided mindset.

Is it a cruise holiday, or what? Today, the estimated numbers of all frontline economic development team members across 200 nations are roughly enough to fill the world-largest-cruise-ship Symphony that holds 6200 guests. If 99.9% of them are job-seeker mindsets, how can the global economic development fraternity sleep tonight? As many billion people already rely on their performances, some two billion in a critical economic crisis, plus one billion starving and fighting deep poverty. If this is what is holding grassroots prosperity for the last decade, when will be the best time to push the red panic button? 

The Big Fallacy of “Access to Finance” Notion: The goals of banking and every major institution on over-fanaticized notions of intricate banking, taxation are of little or no value as SME of the world are not primarily looking for “Access to Capital” they are rather seeking answers and dialogue with entrepreneurial job creator mindsets. SME management and economic development is not about fancy PDF studies of recycled data and extra rubber stamps to convince that lip service is working. No, it is not working right across the world.

SME are also not looking for government loans. They do not require expensive programs offered on Tax relief, as they make no profit, they do not require free financial audits, as they already know what their financial problems are and they also do that require mechanical surveys created by bureaucracies asking the wrong questions. This is the state of SME recovery and economic development outputs and lingering of sufferings.

SME development teams across the world now require mandatory direct SME ownership experiences

The New Hypothesis 2022: The new hypothesis challenges any program on the small medium business development fronts unless in the right hands and right mindsets they are only damaging the national economy. Upon satisfactory research and study, create right equilibrium and bring job seeker and job creator mindsets to collaborate for desired results. As a start 50-50, balances are good targets, however, anything less than 10% active participation of the job creator mindset at any frontline mandated SME Ministry, department, agency or trade groups automatically raises red flags and is deemed ineffective and irrelevant. 

The accidental economists: The hypothesis, further challenges, around the world, economic institutes of sorts, already, focused on past, present and future of local and global economy. Although brilliant in their own rights and great job seekers, they too lack the entrepreneurial job creator mindsets and have no experience of creating enterprises at large. Brilliantly tabulating data creating colorful illustrative charts, but seriously void of specific solutions, justifiably as their profession rejects speculations, however, such bodies never ready to bring such disruptive issues in fear of creating conflicts amongst their own job seeker fraternities. The March of Displaced cometh, the cries of the replaced by automation get louder, the anger of talented misplaced by wrong mindsets becomes visible. Act accordingly

The trail of silence: Academia will neither, as they know well their own myopic job seeker mindset. In a world where facial recognition used to select desired groups, pronouns to right gatherings, social media to isolate voting, but on economic survival fronts where, either print currency or buy riot gears or both, a new norm; unforgiveable is the treatment of small medium business economies and mishmash support of growth. Last century, laborious and procedural skills were precious, this century surrounded by extreme automation; mindsets are now very precious.  

Global-age of national mobilization: Start with a constructive open-minded collaborative narrative, demonstrate open courage to allow entrepreneurial points of views heard and critically analyze ideas on mobilization of small mid size business economies. Applying the same new hypotheses across all high potential contributors to SME growth, like national trade groups, associations and chambers as their frontline economic developers must also balance with the job creator mindset otherwise they too become irrelevant. Such ideas are not just criticism rather survival strategies. Across the world, this is a new revolution to arm SME with the right skills to become masters of trade and exports, something abandoned by their economic policies. To further discuss or debate at Cabinet Level explore how Expothon is making footprints on new SME thinking and tabling new deployment strategies. Expothon is also planning a global series of virtual events to uplift SME economies in dozens of selected nations.

Two wheels of the same cart: Silence on such matters is not a good sign. Address candidly; allow both mindsets to debate on how and why as the future becomes workless and how and why small medium business sectors can become the driving engine of new economic progress. Job seekers and job creators are two wheels of the same cart; right assembly will take us far on this economic growth passage. Face the new global age with new confidence. Let the nation witness leadership on mobilization of entrepreneurialism and see a tide of SME growth rise. The rest is easy.

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Rebalancing Act: China’s 2022 Outlook

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Authors: Ibrahim Chowdhury, Ekaterine T. Vashakmadze and Li Yusha

After a strong rebound last year, the world economy is entering a challenging 2022. The advanced economies have recovered rapidly thanks to big stimulus packages and rapid progress with vaccination, but many developing countries continue to struggle.

The spread of new variants amid large inequalities in vaccination rates, elevated food and commodity prices, volatile asset markets, the prospect of policy tightening in the United States and other advanced economies, and continued geopolitical tensions provide a challenging backdrop for developing countries, as the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report published today highlights.

The global context will also weigh on China’s outlook in 2022, by dampening export performance, a key growth driver last year. Following a strong 8 percent cyclical rebound in 2021, the World Bank expects growth in China to slow to 5.1 percent in 2022, closer to its potential — the sustainable growth rate of output at full capacity.

Indeed, growth in the second half of 2021 was below this level, and so our forecast assumes a modest amount of policy loosening. Although we expect momentum to pick up, our outlook is subject to domestic in addition to global downside risks. Renewed domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, including the new Omicron variant and other highly transmittable variants, could require more broad-based and longer-lasting restrictions, leading to larger disruptions in economic activity. A severe and prolonged downturn in the real estate sector could have significant economy-wide reverberations.

In the face of these headwinds, China’s policymakers should nonetheless keep a steady hand. Our latest China Economic Update argues that the old playbook of boosting domestic demand through investment-led stimulus will merely exacerbate risks in the real estate sector and reap increasingly lower returns as China’s stock of public infrastructure approaches its saturation point.

Instead, to achieve sustained growth, China needs to stick to the challenging path of rebalancing its economy along three dimensions: first, the shift from external demand to domestic demand and from investment and industry-led growth to greater reliance on consumption and services; second, a greater role for markets and the private sector in driving innovation and the allocation of capital and talent; and third, the transition from a high to a low-carbon economy.

None of these rebalancing acts are easy. However, as the China Economic Update points out, structural reforms could help reduce the trade-offs involved in transitioning to a new path of high-quality growth.

First, fiscal reforms could aim to create a more progressive tax system while boosting social safety nets and spending on health and education. This would help lower precautionary household savings and thereby support the rebalancing toward domestic consumption, while also reducing income inequality among households.

Second, following tightening anti-monopoly provisions aimed at digital platforms, and a range of restrictions imposed on online consumer services, the authorities could consider shifting their attention to remaining barriers to market competition more broadly to spur innovation and productivity growth.

A further opening-up of the protected services sector, for example, could improve access to high-quality services and support the rebalancing toward high-value service jobs (a special focus of the World Bank report). Eliminating remaining restrictions on labor mobility by abolishing the hukou, China’s system of household registration, for all urban areas would equally support the growth of vibrant service economies in China’s largest cities.

Third, the wider use of carbon pricing, for example, through an expansion of the scope and tightening of the emissions trading system rules, as well power sector reforms to encourage the penetration and nationwide trade and dispatch of renewables, would not only generate environmental benefits but also contribute to China’s economic transformation to a more sustainable and innovation-based growth model.

In addition, a more robust corporate and bank resolution framework would contribute to mitigating moral hazards, thereby reducing the trade-offs between monetary policy easing and financial risk management. Addressing distortions in the access to credit — reflected in persistent spreads between private and State borrowers — could support the shift to more innovation-driven, private sector-led growth.

Productivity growth in China during the past four decades of reform and opening-up has been private-sector led. The scope for future productivity gains through the diffusion of modern technologies and practices among smaller private companies remains large. Realizing these gains will require a level playing field with State-owned enterprises.

While the latter have played an instrumental role during the pandemic to stabilize employment, deliver key services and, in some cases, close local government budget gaps, their ability to drive the next phase of growth is questionable given lower profits and productivity growth rates in the past.

In 2022, the authorities will face a significantly more challenging policy environment. They will need to remain vigilant and ready to recalibrate financial and monetary policies to ensure the difficulties in the real estate sector don’t spill over into broader economic distress. Recent policy loosening suggests the policymakers are well aware of these risks.

However, in aiming to keep growth on a steady path close to potential, they will need to be similarly alert to the risk of accumulating ever greater levels of corporate and local government debt. The transition to high-quality growth will require economic rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green investments. If the past is any guide to the future, the reliance on markets and private sector initiative is China’s best bet to achieve the required structural change swiftly and at minimum cost.

First published on China Daily, via World Bank

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