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From most dangerous place to favorite tourist destination

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Pakistan, once called as breeding ground of terrorism, recorded its lowest number of terror-related deaths in 2019. Since 2007, there is a 90% decline in deaths related to terrorist incidents, states Global Terrorism Index (GTI) Report 2020.  Most of the deaths form terrorism in Pakistan were from small-scale attacks that were not attributed to any particular group. The report highlights that out of 37 terror groups active in Pakistan in 2015, only ten were (partially) active in 2019. GTI report also points out that since 2014, the economic impact of terrorism declined by 95%.

Furthermore, the report assessed that the most impacted regions of Pakistan in 2019 were Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (erstwhile FATA); the two regions recorded 77% of attacks and 85% of deaths in 2019. The most frequent forms of terrorism in these regions were bombings and armed assaults targeting civilians, police and military personnel.

GTI report 2020 is a comprehensive analysis of terrorism impact in 163 countries covering period till end 2019. The latest edition of the report summarizes key global terrorism trends/patterns over the last 50 years. It covers over 17000 terrorist incidents from 1970 to 2019.

It is pertinent to note that the number of terrorist incidents reported by GTI in Pakistan (279) is half as compared to India (558). Here it must be flagged that it is a serious analytical concern that Indian statistics in GTI does not reveal India’s nefarious designs in Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan, as the report does not include state sponsored terrorism.

Although, the report does not reflect the accurate position due to certain research-based limitations, still the statistics of the report clearly indicate that Pakistan’s situation has improved. As per GTI report Pakistan ranking got better from 5th (2019) to 7th (2020).

Now this is a big turn-around. A country once known as a hub of terrorism, presenting itself today as a the most experienced in combating terrorism, all by itself, without any outside assistance. The question is how did the country managed to do so? What has happened in last few years that a country with an image of ‘most dangerous place’ is gushing with tourists in 2020. It has been declared as ‘favorite tourist destination’ by many.

The reduced terrorism trend in Pakistan can be rightly attributed the firm resolve of political leadership across the board and counter-terrorism operations undertaken by Pakistan military and other law enforcement agencies (LEAs). Since 2001, Pakistan’s Military launched series of operations to clamp down terrorist and establish the writ of the government. These operations include Operation Al-Mizan (2002-06), Operation Rah-e-Haq (November 2007), Operation Sher-e-Dil (September 2008), Operation Zalzala (2008-09), Operation Sirat-e-Mustaqeem (2008), Operation Rah-e-Raast (May 2009), Operation Rah-e-Nijaat (October 2009), Operation Koh-e-Sufaid (July 2011), Operation Zarb-e-Azb (2013) and then Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad, was launched on February 22, 2017.

After few years of initial chaos and uncertainty, finally in 2012, the Pakistan Army was able to take control of key towns of the Malakand Division and many areas of the tribal region. North Waziristan was the only quagmire left. When General Raheel Sharif succeeded General Kayani in November 2013, he gave the order to initiate Operation Zarb-e-Azb. By June 2014 the operation was underway. Operation Zarb-e-Azb was conducted against the following militant groups: Tehrik-i-Pakistan (TTP), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkestan Islamic Movement, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Al-Qaeda, Jundallah and the Haqqani Network.

SEEK-DESTROY-CLEAR-HOLD was the military strategy used for this grand and comprehensive operation. Seek and Destroy element is extracted the Vietnam War, while Clear and Hold constituent is from the Iraq War. Pakistan’s military fused the two doctrines together as one for the operation to be efficacious. The modus operandi for this was that the military would seek the target; once sought, it will be destroyed, then the infrastructure, bodies and weapons would be cleared and the area will be held both during and after its completion to ensure no resurgence of militants or militancy happen again.

After just one and a half years of launch of Zarb-e-Azb, remarkable success was realized. The terrorists’ spine was broken and their network dismantled. Nexus sleeper cells mostly disrupted and with the Intelligence Based Operations (IBOs), the residual of the sleeper cells was busted. Consequently, the overall security situation improved extraordinarily and the terrorist attacks nose-dived to a six-year low since 2008.

Pakistan’s military under-went a massive experience during the past decade in the backdrop of terrorism and militancy in the country. The experience speaks for itself, as each of the operation proved to be more successful than the previous one. Being trained as a force for conventional warfare, currently the military forces have become well equipped and trained to fight unconventional warfare effectively. The ground forced are now well acquainted with the terrain, surrounding areas and local tribal population.

Though, these operations witnessed a huge loss of civilians and military personnel, but it appears to be the hardest and most effective training the Pakistan Army would or could undergo. More sophisticated and precise weapons have been used by the Pakistan Army in the recent combat missions. Among all major military operations in Pakistan, Operation Rah-e-Raast and Zarb-e-Azb have been the most successful in eliminating terrorists.

As per Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) – the media and public relations wing of Pakistan Armed Forces, Operation Zarbe-Azb was the biggest and most well-coordinated operation ever conducted against terrorists. It is a war of survival; hence, this operation held greater significance among all the operations conducted so far.

Later, combined military operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (elimination of strife) was initiated on February 22, 2017, to disarm and eliminate the terrorist sleeper cells across the country. It also aimed to eliminate the threat of terrorism, consolidating the gains of Operation Zarb-e-Azb and ensuring the security of Pakistan’s borders. Countrywide disarmament and explosive control were also given as additional objectives of the operation. This Operation has been mostly acknowledged one after Operation Zarb-e-Azb.

It helped preserve stability and consolidate peace across the country with an additional lens of prevention of militancy and terrorism’s resurgence. Now, as the country is breathing peacefully, it is time to plug in economic approach robustly, in parallel, as not to let roll back the gains made so far.

The author Saddam Hussein is a Research Economist at Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad. He graduated from the School of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU) and also holds Master of Philosophy degree in Public Policy from PIDE. Hussein writes regularly for national and international print media, frequently appears on TV for expert analysis and conducts training workshops on a wide range of thematic areas.

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Terrorism

A Virus Yet to Be Eradicated

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Much as everything in this world, human memory knows its limits. Increasingly receding into a background of the past, episodes of our life—be they thrilling at the thought or intensely dramatic—grow faint and fade, as they are gradually eclipsed by latest events and fresh experiences.

On September 11, 2001, I happened to be a first-hand witness to the most heinous terrorist attack in humanity’s contemporary history—the hijacked passenger jets heading to crash into the towers of the World Trade Center in lower Manhattan. Twenty-one years later, I’m somewhat in doubt that all of this happened to me for a fact: blinding flares of orange against the backdrop of a blue September sky, swirls of smoke and dust slowly blanketing the city’s downtown narrow streets, a high-pitched cacophony of fire-truck and police sirens, crowds of disoriented people having no idea where to run and what the next moment might bring.

In the wake of 9/11, international terrorism has predictably become a thing to bandy about. Like many of my colleagues, I was attending numerous conferences and seminars as well as partaking in various research projects on the subject. Besides, a stroke of fate gave me a rare opportunity to have personal conversations with such heavyweights of world politics as Vyacheslav Trubnikov, Richard Armitage, Thomas R. Pickering, Kofi Annan and others, who made their meaningful contribution to fostering cooperation in countering the terrorist threat. In a way, their efforts have borne fruit as the world has seen nothing similar to 9/11 since 2001.

Still, we have to admit that the war on terror has not ended in a decisive victory. Terrorist attacks no longer claim lives of thousands—however, hundreds have died in the massive attacks in Paris and in Madrid, in Bagdad and in Berlin, in Beslan and over Sinai, in Gamboru (Nigeria) and in Mumbai (India), with new names added to this tragic list every so often. Large-scale terrorist attacks are now few and far between in the United States, but there have been more of them in Europe, let alone in the Middle East. The recent suicide bombing near the Russian Embassy in Kabul is yet another reminder that the terrorist threat is still here. Why, then, is the goal to wipe out terrorism—now dating two decades—not achieved so far?

In the first place, the international community has failed to agree on a common definition of terrorism’s origins, driving forces and character. What some actors explicitly dub as “terrorist” may look like a national liberation struggle for others. Bring up the issue of terrorism in Kashmir in a conversation with Indians and Pakistani, only to see there can hardly be a common denominator in this matter.

Second, any success in the fight against terrorism entails a high level of trust between the interacting parties—simply because they would have to exchange sensitive and confidential information. In today’s world, trust is thin on the ground. An apparent and mounting deficit of this resource is not only present in the relations between Moscow and Washington; it also takes its toll on the relations between Beijing and Brussels, between Riyadh and Teheran, between Cairo and Addis Ababa, between Bogota and Caracas, and the list goes on.

Third, international terrorism is far from an issue that is set in stone. It is gradually changing and evolving to become more resilient, sophisticated, and cunning. Similar to a dangerous virus, the terrorist threat is mutating, generating ever new strains. Ironically, what is especially dangerous today is the kind of terrorism bred by anonymous mavericks and amateurs rather than the sort represented by well-known transnational extremist movements—individualists are the hardest to track and neutralize, while plans of amateurs are harder to reveal.

The current progress in military technology, coupled with other trends in the contemporary international arena, portend a new spike in terrorist activities in the coming years. Modern and increasingly complex social and economic infrastructure, especially in large metropolitan areas, is an enabling environment for hard-hitting terrorist attacks. Besides, international and civil conflicts—like the one raging in Ukraine—drastically heighten the accessibility of modern arms for would-be terrorists.

Add to this a comprehensive setback in the resilience of global economy, which may be fraught with more social tensions and an inevitable rise of pollical radicalism and extremism in a broad range of countries. An obvious foretelling: In this “nutrient broth”, the virus of terrorism, which has not been wholly eradicated, stands all the chances for an “explosive” growth.

It may well be possible that all of us will in the years ahead be lucky enough to avoid a second edition of the events that shattered the world on September 11, 2001. Still, taking terrorism off the agenda is only possible if humanity effects a transition to a new level of global governance. It is either that the leading powers are wise and energetic enough for this, or the tax that international terrorism imposes on our common civilization will be progressively higher.

From our partner RIAC

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Terrorism

ISIS Rises from the Dust in the Syrian Desert

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Over the last few months Syria’s northeast has been spiraling downwards to chaos amid the surge of violence and terror attributed to Islamic State (IS). After almost five years of dormant existence the terror group is once again making its way to prominence in Syria. With the so-called territorial califate no longer viable, the IS members have switched to hit-and-run attacks on remote outposts and prolific use of improvised explosive devices (IED) against vehicles. These attacks target both US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian army units operating in the northeastern provinces of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. At the same time the terrorists managed to restore afinancial safety net by extorting money from local professionals, including small business owners, doctors and teachers. Those who refuse to pay are subjected to threats and torture. The resulting insecurity enables the terror group to widen the scope of its activities even further.

The deterioration of the security situation in Syria went almost unnoticed by the international community distracted by the Ukrainian conflict. Under these circumstances the U.S. has a window of opportunity to curb the Russian influence in Syria and undermine theimage of power projected by Moscow in the Middle East.

Indeed, the areas held by the Russians and the Syrian army in Deir Ezzor and Homs have witnessed an increase in bloody attacks, supposedly carried out by IS fighters. The terrorists were able to avoid retaliation by retreating to no man’s land in the areas abutting the U.S. bases, namely Al-Shadadi, the Green Zone near Abu-Kemal border crossing and Al-Tanf base. Moreover, previously each IS attack in US-controlled areas had been followed by joint raids of SDF and the US special forces. It is no longer so. Considerable resources that might otherwise have been used for counterinsurgency operations are allocated to maintaining security in Al-Hol camp, where some 12,000 IS fighters and their family members are held. Add to that the imminent threat of Turkish invasion from the north. The SDF was led into a deadlock and is loosing the grip on the region. Meanwhile IS sleeper cells exploit the situation to their advantage and infiltrate territories controlled by the Syrian army.

These suspicions are confirmed by a high-ranking source in the Syrian intelligence. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the source claimed that the U.S. helicopters transported 200 former IS fighters from prisons in Haseke to the 55-km security zone around Al-Tanf. The terrorists will be split up into groups of 10 – 15 people. These groups will be then sent to provinces with Russian presence including Homs, Latakia, Tartus and Damascus with the task of conducting terror attacks with IEDs at the Russian military sites. Most of the selected militants originate from Northern Caucasia or Central Asia and therefore are fluent in Russian.

The source added that the list of the primary targets of the terrorists includes the phosphate mines in Hneifis guarded by Russian security companies as well as Russian military bases in Lattakia, Tartus, Damascus and Aleppo.

Ultimately, the recruitment of IS members to create disturbance for the Russians would only become a logical development of the proxy policy adopted by the U.S. in Syria. After all, Washington is killing two birds with one stone by destabilizing the area of Russian influence and making use of the IS prisoners. However, there is another conclusion to be made: Washington has failed in its initial mission to defeat IS and is now resorting to the use of terror group splinters in its political power games.

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Terrorism

Pakistan is a victim of terrorism

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Terrorism

A High-Level Ministerial the first Session of the UN Global Congress of Victims of Terrorism was held on 8 September 2022, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s remarks:- 

“I am honored to speak today at the first UN Global Congress of Victims of Terrorism. This subject has special resonance for me personally, having lost my illustrious mother, the first woman Prime Minister of Pakistan, in a dastardly act of terrorism.

2.​ The Government and the people of Pakistan pay solemn tribute to all those who have suffered at the hands of terrorists. I express my profound support and solidarity with the victims and families of those who have been affected by this scourge.

3.​ The international community has an abiding responsibility to protect and support victims of terrorism. This has to be the basic tenant of our efforts to promote peace and security in the world.

4.​ While waging kinetic efforts to eradicate terrorist groups is imperative, we cannot fully win the fight against terrorism without preserving the rights of millions of innocent, defenseless, and vulnerable people who have suffered immensely because of terrorism. There should be more focus on retribution and rehabilitation and justice. Equally important is the need to work together to prevent further attacks, hold terrorists to account, and adopt a uniform victim-centric approach while addressing the challenges faced in conflict zones.

5.​ It is also unfortunate that political expediency and real politick have been allowed to dictate international response towards terrorism. Our tolerance for terrorism must not be a function of our foreign and domestic policies. This selective approach toward terrorism is the biggest injustice to the victims of terrorism.

6. ​For the last two decades, Pakistan has been one of the worst victims of terrorism – with over 80,000 causalities and economic losses exceeding $150 billion. We pay tribute to the families of martyrs of our law enforcement agencies and armed forces, who have rendered invaluable sacrifices while defending our motherland.

7.​ If we are to chart a way forward for victims, we must look beyond narrow political interests and geo-political agendas. We must examine why, despite global strategies, the terrorist threats continue to proliferate and give rise to the number of victims.

8.​ To further debate this issue, I would like to make a few points: First, we must address the root causes of terrorism and conditions conducive to terrorism. Second, we must distinguish terrorism from legitimate struggles for self-determination. Third, we must address state-sponsored terrorism, especially in cases of foreign occupation, and reject occupying powers’ propensity to use brute force against occupied people in the name of counter-terrorism operations. Fourth, we must have a consensus definition of terrorism and take into account new and emerging threats. Fifth, we must address challenges emanating from the use of new technologies by terrorists, especially on social media and the dark web. And finally, we must counter disinformation campaigns.

9.​ Pakistan condemns terrorism in all forms and manifestations including right-wing, Islamophobia, racially and ethnically motivated, and state-sponsored terrorism.

10.​ Terrorism can only be completely eradicated by fighting extremism and the mindset that breeds violent extremism. I would like to urge that this global problem requires continuing international cooperation without any prejudices or preconceived notions against any particular religion, race, civilization, or country.

11.​ I would also like to take this opportunity to pay special homage to the oppressed people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) and Palestine who deserve our special attention for their continuing suffering as victims of the worst forms of state-terrorism. The international community must hold the perpetrators of such state terrorism, and crimes against humanity, to account.

12. ​Our inability to address these issues will continue to increase victims and add to their suffering. It will also add to the physical and psychological trauma that may outlive many conflicts. The international community owes it to the victims of terrorism to take effective steps to address terrorism, wherever it may be, in whatever form it exists, without political considerations. This is our moral as well as legal obligation.”

Pakistan’s sacrifices in the Afghan war are much more than the collective damages caused to the 46 nations alliance led by the US in Afghanistan. Pakistan suffered the loss of around 80,000 precious human lives and an economic loss of estimated worth US Dollars 250 billion, in addition to the menace of terrorism, drugs, and gun cultures. The international community should acknowledge Pakistan’s sacrifices and compensate.

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