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Tigray: A Tussle For Power

Ethiopian refugees fleeing clashes in the country's northern Tigray region, rest and cook meals near UNHCR's Hamdayet reception centre after crossing into Sudan. © UNHCR/Hazim Elhag

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“Abiy controls the international narrative but not necessarily the country,” Getachew

The diplomatic escalation and fighting in Ethiopia have been widening the conflict by shattering the region and its people. Tigray was facing an autocratic regime for a long time now. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) which is a central government force came into conflict in an alleged Tigrayan attacks on an Ethiopian base in Mekelle and the Fifth Battalion barracks in Dansha. Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is one of powerful party in the Tigray region which tends to follow an authoritative rule. The party rejects the Federal government and considers the central power as a foreign rule.

The TPLF attacked the National Defence Force Base located in Tigray and attempted to rob military artilleries and equipment. Over the past months, there were provocations and incitement for violence by TPLF junta in the region. According to the Tigray Government, these had been nothing but false claims framed against the people of Tigray. There were a series of events that took place in November 2020. The Federal Government declared the creation of an interim government for the Tigray on the 7th of November as a measure against the ongoing clash. There was an airstrike in the north by the Ethiopian offensives accompanied to retake fallen towns and cities. Starting from November 14th, the Tigrayan forces launched rockets at the Eritrean capital of Asmara intending to involve foreign countries in the conflict. On the 18th of November, Abiy Ahmad claimed to capture the cities of Shire and Axum in the long battle of Mekelle. The Ethiopian forces further claimed to have taken south of the city as well. While on 26th, when the ultimatum ended, Abiy ordered federal military forces to launch an attack on Mekelle. On 28th, the Ethiopian government announced that it had taken control of the city, bringing “the last phase of its law enforcement operation” to an end. The TPLF refused to give up and declared to resume the fight. Meanwhile, Debretsion entrenched TPLF’s withdrawal from Mekelle. Many people were killed in the conflict and whereas around thousands fled to Sudan. South Sudan harboring Debretsion Gebremichael, led to the Ethiopian ambassador to South Sudan abruptly returning to Ethiopia. The South Sudanese diplomats in Ethiopia were given 72 hours to leave the country. And, on 2nd December, the United Nations were given humanitarian access to the federal held territory in the Tigray Region.

 The Massarce

Sam Dubberley, who is with Amnesty International’s Crisis Response Team, told DW: “We spent a good amount of time going through these videos, going through these photographs, making sure that they were they were taken recently, making sure that they weren’t from previous events from the region to really verify and to make sure we know what had happened in Tirgray.”

One of the horrifying incidents in the conflict includes the Mai Kadra Massacre. There were a series of ethnic cleansing and mass murders that took place in early November 2020 in Mai Kadra. The Massacre was reported to be led by Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Thousands of innocent people became the victim of the fault line war and most of the casualties were innocent migrant laborers and civilians. As a result, all the access to the region was blocked including phone lines, and the internet connection was shut down. The region has been boiling in difference of political opinion so far.

 According to Amnesty International, the number of death remains unclear. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) described the massacre as a “widespread and systematic attack directed against civilians” that took almost hundreds of lives. As the access to the region has been closed by the federal government the loss is difficult to measure. 

The Battle of Mekelle was successfully concluded by the Ethiopian National Defense Force, leading to the capture of the regional capital of Tigray region, and the defeat of the TPLF’s leadership in the region. Mekelle was considered to be the birthplace of armed struggles where Abiy Ahmad was seen as a hope to draw a line under the previous exploit.

 When the Prime Minister spoke that he had occupied Mekelle; the TPLF immediately launched the third missile attack towards Asmara and other Eritrean cities. Although the conventional war seems to be over there is a possibility that the defeated TPLF forces could wage a guerrilla war from the places where they pull out during the conflict. “There were no signs of gunshot wounds,” as stated by the Amnesty, citing witnesses as saying bodies were found on central streets and at “rental dormitories frequented by seasonal workers.” Inside Tigray, more than 2 million residents are dependent on humanitarian aid, estimates the UN. Some 11,000 Ethiopians have already sought refuge in neighboring Sudan. Debretsion Gebremichael, the leader of TPLF, denied the involvement of TPLF in the Mai-Kadra killings.  

The Chronicles Of The Past

The TPLF was formed in 1975 with a cause to the people of Africa and the Middle East who were demanding liberation. The revolution was inspired by Marxist-Leninism for national identity demanding for the revival world for the country. There had been a long pique in Tigray regarding the faculty of the centralized Ethiopian state. Debretsion Gebremichael, who was then a wireless operator and propagandist for the insurgents, is now the leader of TPLF. Activities of the military Junta often disturb the country’s democratic balance and international image mostly amongst African union.

Later, the rebel group Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led to a coalition formed with the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) from 1989 to 2018. With the help of its former ally, the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), EPRDF overthrew the dictatorship of the People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (PDRE) and established a new government in 1991. The Federal-state relations deteriorated considerably after the region held local elections in September 2020. After the elections, the government proclaimed the election as illegitimate and illegal. The federal government declared the regional elections that took place was extra-constitutional and neither free nor fair but the regional government argued that the federal government did not uphold the constitution which stated that elections should occur every 5 years and the by rendering its authority null and void.

 “Taking law-enforcement measures based on ethnicity and identity is something that we… would condemn, this is not acceptable”Mamo Mihretu, Adviser to Ethiopia’s prime minister.

Abiy Ahmad who was elected as the federal democratic minister of Ethiopia in 2018 was fully committed to reuniting the ethnic fraction, undergoing several conflicts and violence to bring a democratic upsurge. The refugee crisis and attacks by TPLF on Etheria were destabilizing the country in a great manner.  In March, Abiy’s government postponed elections due to the pandemic but the TPLF held it anyway which escalated into further conflicts. The major fear was the involvement of neighboring countries and outside power which already made it a bloody war. The reason for attacking Eritrea was that the TPLF considers them pro-federal. Abiy Ahmad who is a noble peace prize winner was heavily accused of starting the war by many people in the region.

Conclusion

“We won’t rest till this junta is brought to justice”- Abiy Ahmad wrote on twitter.

The year 2020 has been destructive for the people worldwide. There has been a massive humanitarian crisis amid the pandemic with economic breakdown. With the increasing influx of refugees and shadow pandemic; the crime against humanity is gross. Tigray conflict is a result of an unresolved clash between the center-state where civilians became the victims. Inflicting neighboring countries has been the worst-case scenario. The faulty aggressions amongst the people misled to a mishap that might take years to recover. Lately, the world is seen losing faith in democracy and peace. Some say that the conflict could have been avoided by the federal government besides it’s difficult to put forward a statement without evidence. The failing federalism and gross human rights violation in the region have eventually disturbed the political, economic, and social environment in Ethiopia. The further involvement of the international community in domestic politics will make the scenario worst. The region has also seen famine in the past and it is approaching again. Ethiopia already falls under the category of least developed countries and low human rights index. The proposition to resolve must be defensive from both sides. A democratic strategy must be adopted to dissolve the military rule in Tigray for the growth and development of the country.

The author is a post-graduate scholar who completed her M.A in politics and International Relations from Pondicherry University, 2020. She has published articles on various topics related to the field of study and analysis in different platforms

Africa

Mozambique’s Crisis and its Humanitarian Aid

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Escalating conflict and a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado has left communities completely reliant on humanitarian assistance. According to the Government, attacks by non-state groups have forced more than 565,000 people to flee their homes and villages, abandoning their crops and livelihoods.

Last December, the United Nations Regional Directors for Eastern and Southern Africa visited Mozambique to assess the plight and needs of displaced populations as well as of host communities in northern Cabo Delgado province, and met government officials in Maputo.

They expressed their deep concerns about the unfolding humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado where violence has exposed people to human rights violations and left people with very limited access to food and livelihoods. The growing insecurity and poor infrastructure have meant that reaching out to people in need has become harder and coupled with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the crisis has become even more complex.

“We need to urgently increase our presence in Cabo Delgado in order to help those in need, especially women and children,” said Lola Castro, WFP Regional Director for southern Africa.

The joint mission with Regional Directors of FAO, IFAD, IOM, UNFPA, UNHCR and WFP, as well as by the UNDP Resilience Hub Manager and members of the UN Country Team, allowed participants to witness firsthand the impact of continuing violence in Cabo Delgado and to show support for affected communities and the Mozambican people.

They heard extremely moving accounts from displaced men, women and children in the city of Pemba, the capital of Cabo Delgado, and in the districts of Ancuabe and Chiúre, whose lives have been upended by conflict and insecurity. They also met communities accommodating the displaced, visited planned resettlement areas and held discussions with the provincial governor and Secretary of State, as well as with religious leaders and representatives of civic organisations.

The crisis in the north of the country is a complex security, human rights, humanitarian and development emergency, underscoring the imperative of continuing to provide life-saving assistance while collectively supporting government-led long-term resilience building.

While acknowledging that much has been done to help victims of the crisis, the Regional Directors stressed that with displacement increasing daily, the lack of adequate food, water, sanitation, shelter, health, protection and education was exacerbating an already dire situation – one set to be further compounded by the imminent rainy season in a country particularly prone to climate extremes, as cyclones Idai and Kenneth devastatingly illustrated in 2019.

Most recently, tropical storm Chalane, which hit the same populations last December, as cyclone Idai did less than two years ago, was a harsh reminder of the climate threat Mozambicans are facing and of the urgency to massively scale up investments in recovery and resilience

With COVID-19 keeping most schools closed, the importance of robust investment in education to build Mozambique’s social and human capital is a growing concern.

There is an urgent need to expand protection, health, food and nutrition programmes for vulnerable children and women, and vaccination and immunisation interventions and psycho-social counselling, and of working to enable displaced farming and fishing families re-establish sustainable livelihoods.

The Regional Directors urged support for the adequate resettlement of uprooted families straining the already limited resources of impoverished host communities and slowing government efforts to effectively register and assist the displaced.

They noted that urgent investments in development and resilience-building are required to not only promote human rights and social justice, but also to limit the impact of current crises and help prevent future ones.

To curb violent extremism, they called for development initiatives to be transnational in approach and to prioritise the economic empowerment and social and political inclusion of women and young people.

They urged the Government of Mozambique and the international community to step up efforts to end all forms of violence in the country, including gender-based violence and child marriage, and to invest more in women and girls as agents of progress and change.

The Regional Directors expressed gratitude to the government for its role in helping to meet the humanitarian needs of people in the north of the country and re-affirmed the commitment of the United Nations to upholding human rights and promoting peace and sustainable development for all Mozambicans.

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Africa

What Social Movements Mean for African Politics

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Africa’s transition from a continent of colonial protectorates to independent states has been met with developmental and political challenges. From the 1960s, the political trajectory of Africa witnessed many regimes, regimes that have made their mark on the continent. The struggle for the legitimacy of state power between the African people and the regimes whose policies have shaped the political history of the continent oscillated between nationalistic interest and arbitrariness, at a time when the newly independent states needed a definite political direction.

For instance by 2002, the nationalistic government of Robert Mugabe had left Zimbabwe groveling in the drought stricken velds from bad economic policies. Today, Uganda is still reeling from the administrative recklessness of the Idi Amin regime. Considering the dark regimes that have been etched into the history of some states in Africa, democracy was a light that was to lead into a new dawn.

With democracy, came promises that would ensure the emancipation of dissident voices. The promises that democracy bore for African states were the development of state institutions and the improvement of state responses to the general will. For the people of Africa, the advent of democracy signified that a leader had to prove themselves, while for the leaders, it proved a paradigm shift in the management of power; a loss of the insularity of state politics. It meant that leaders had to show accountability, not only to their people, but also to external powers that existed as international institutions and hegemonic states with pro-democratic foreign policies.

Many issues with the African conception of democracy remain unresolved even despite many years of political transitioning for Africa’s largest economies. One of the issues that have remained unresolved in the African democracy is the perception of institutions by the individuals occupying them, another of these issues is the sensitivity of the African democracy to vibrant social movements where the protection of human rights is concerned.

In contemporary African democracies, there exists a new democratic space where social movements have engaged the political realities. One of the most empowering facts for social movements in Africa is the globalized effect of the social media and its pivotal role in ensuring government accountability.

In safe-guarding human rights and ensuring the protection of the rule of law in Africa, social movements have a huge role to play, as they are essential to achieving governmental accountability through a sustained engagement and with the power of collective insistence. In African states where the government is autocratic, social movements are a threat to state power and are thus met with violent resistance.

According to a study by Guillermo A O’Donnell, state repression have proven to be the constant response to social movements. This is because the greatest strategy of autocratic governments in stifling resistance that could lead to an explosive demonstration of popular discontent, is in the use of threats, intimidation and persecution. According to Human Rights Watch, in 2016, there was a violent suppression of peaceful protests in East Africa. In Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya, the governments responded to peaceful protesters with deadly force which led to the death and the injury of many protesters. In 2020, the Nigerian government engaged protesters and activists during the EndSARS protests with the state security forces, which led to the deaths of unarmed protesters at the Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos. The aftermath of the protests saw the Nigerian government intimidating activists that were thought to have been at the forefront of the End SARS protests and attempting to muzzle the media.

One of the greatest challenges of democracy in Africa is the imbalance of power in the governmental structure. The imbalance in the allocation of power between arms of government or in the monolithic representation of power has resulted in the overexploitation of power. This has made it difficult for the African states that are yet to transit to democratic status to do so, and for those that have transited, to perfect their democratic act.

The power imbalance which could be attributed in some African countries like Nigeria to constitutional deficiencies was demonstrated when Obasanjo who became Nigeria’s president in 1999, tried to adjust constitutional term limits so that he could contest elections for a third term.  Social movements in Africa have toppled regimes in Africa and they have tremendous capacity to change the political course of a state.

 This could be achieved when social movements are popular and when they represent a general interest, then the interest which a government might claim it represents become invalidated by the shift in the alliance of the people. This is usually the case when there is a common agreement that the government in power no longer serves the interest of the people who elected such government.

The fear that spurs an autocratic government into attempting to repress social movement is that it might become popular. Social movements are powerful and could be harnessed for political change since they signal the activation of the collective power. At the level of the social movement, it is not a call to negotiation, but a call to swift action which both the government and the people recognize as it becomes insistent.

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Africa

Review: As Coronavirus Rise Past Three million, Africa Hopes for Vaccine

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Migrant women and their children quarantine at a site in Niamey, Niger. © UNICEF/Juan Haro

With its large population and fragile health systems, Africa has recorded more than three million Covid-19 cases, still less deadly as compared to other regions in the world, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). According to Africa CDC, Africa’s coronavirus tally was 3,021,769 as of January 10. The death toll was 72,121 and the number of recoveries was 2,450,492. The biggest number of coronavirus cases were reported from South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, and Ethiopia.

South Africa, with more than 1.2 million reported cases, including 32,824 deaths, accounts for more than 30% of the total for the continent of 54 countries and 1.3 billion people. The high proportion of cases identified in South Africa, were attributed to more tests carried out than many other African countries.

African countries are expecting to get medical equipment, most especially vaccine, to help them out of the pandemic. These they expect from external sources. During January 4-9, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi paid official visits to Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, Botswana and Seychelles. Wang Yi emphasized that China is willing to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation in diverse spheres with Africa. For example, China’s efforts to create a new image in Africa through China-European Union Cooperation in vaccine.

Both China and the EU vow to work as a global collaboration under the World Health Organization in terms of accelerating the development and manufacture of Covid-19 vaccines, and assuring fair and equitable access for every country in the world. It’s about making the vaccine a global public good.

Last December, during his annual media conference, President Vladimir Putin made it known that Russia’s readiness to help foreign countries including Africa. With regard to cooperation with other countries, it would boost the technological capabilities, enterprises to produce the vaccine, foreign countries would invest their own money into expanding their production capacities and purchasing the corresponding equipment, he explained.

Foreign countries would be investing in these projects: the enlargement of production facilities and the purchase of equipment. “As for cooperation with foreign countries: nothing is stopping us from manufacturing vaccine components at facilities in other countries precisely because we need time to enhance technological capacities of our vaccine manufacturing enterprises. This does not hinder vaccination in the Russian Federation in any way,” Putin said.

According to January report from the Tass News Agency, the Russian Direct Investment Fund has only registered the first Russian vaccine Sputnik V in Africa. “Russian Direct Investment Fund announces the first registration of Sputnik V in Africa. Ministry of Pharmaceutical Industry of Algeria registered Sputnik V on January 10th,” as follows from a post on their official Twitter account.

According to the Russian Direct Investment Fund, the registration was done under the accelerated Emergency Use Authorization procedure. This procedure was also used to register this vaccine in Argentina, Bolivia, and Serbia. The Fund said that supplies to Algeria would be possible thanks to its international partners in India, China, South Korea and other countries.

Writing under the headline “Africa’s Road to Recovery in 2021 Is a Fresh Start” published originally by Chatham House, Dr Alex Vines, the Director for the Africa Program at Chatham House, said many African countries would be much more seriously affected by the socioeconomic consequences of the global economic slowdown triggered by the pandemic. Even before Covid-19 hit, an increasing number of African countries were indebted and financially stressed.

He wrote that African debt would become a greater global concern in 2021 as many African states remain the world’s poorest and most fragile and have been hard hit by the economic and financial costs imposed by the pandemic.

In his analysis, Dr Vines further pointed out that 2021 will also see increased geopolitical rivalry for influence in Africa. This will include competition over generosity, ranging from positioning over debt cancellation to providing Covid-19 vaccines. China has its Sinopharm vaccine and has already signed up to Covax, the international initiative aimed at ensuring equitable global access. The Russians have their Sputnik V vaccine, the UK has its AstraZeneca and University of Oxford vaccine, and the US the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech (with Germany) vaccines.

Reports from Quartz also said Africa appears not part of the supply priorities of the Pharmaceutical companies producing the foremost Covid-19 vaccines. While Pfizer-BioNTech has offered to supply just 50 million Covid-19 vaccines to Africa starting from March to the end of this year, Moderna and AstraZeneca have not yet allocated supplies for Africa. AstraZeneca directed the African Union (AU) to negotiate with the Serum Institute of India for its vaccine to see if they can get a deal. Serum Institute of India has earlier obtained the license to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The Quartz report said most African countries mainly relied on the COVAX co-financing public-private facility backed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to enable rapid and equitable access to Covid-19 vaccines for lower income countries. The facility promised access to vaccines for up to 20% of participating countries’ population with an initial supply beginning in the first quarter of the year to immunize 3% of their population. However, COVAX is underfunded, and these countries must look for other avenues to access more doses to vaccinate the 50% of their population in order to reach immunity.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, several countries around the world have been making efforts to facilitate local vaccine development, clinical trials, and some had made upfront payments for vaccines to encourage early production. Outside of South Africa, most African economies have played too little or no role at all in the development of Covid-19 vaccines and had likewise made little or effort to secure vaccines while other economies around the world were doing so.

For instance, a globally respected genomic and infectious disease laboratory in Nigeria announced the development of a Covid-19 vaccine in September that is 90% effective against the virus in the preclinical trial but it has not been able to carry out clinical trials due to lack of support and funding.

While Kenya recently announced that through the COVAX facility, it ordered 24 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, with supply expected to start arriving in the second week of next month, several African countries are opting for vaccines from India, Russia, and China. This is despite skepticism about the vaccines from Russia and China in particular. Both countries rolled out their vaccines without phase 3 clinical trial results that confirm the vaccine effectiveness.

South Africa said it made a deal with Serum Institute India and will be getting 1.5 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine for its health workers starting this month. The country, which is going is also in talks with Russia and China to procure vaccines. Currently, Guinea is testing the Russian vaccine, Sputnik V and has ordered 2 million doses.

Morocco has ordered 65 million doses of the Sinopharm vaccine from China, and AstraZeneca vaccine from Serum Institute India. Egypt plans to buy 40 million doses of the Sinopharm vaccine, has already received 50,000 doses of the vaccine in December, and expecting another 50,000 in the second or third week of this month when vaccination will commence. Nigeria says vaccine access was in its discussions this week with the Chinese foreign minister during his visit to the county, according to the report from Quartz.

Besides the fact that Africa has registered its three million cases, Africa still behind the United States and European countries, and Asian countries such as China and India when it comes to the Covid-19 outbreak. For many African countries, it is still the time to reflect on African countries’ responses to Covid-19. Although it has abundant resources, Africa remains the world’s poorest and least developed continent, and worse with poor development policies. It is time to prioritize and focus on sustainable development.

Significantly, the global pandemic has exposed the weaknesses in Africa’s health system, adversely affected its economic sectors, it is therefore necessary for African leaders, the African Union (AU), regional organizations and African partners be reminded of issues relating to sustainable development and integration. It sets as a reminder to highlight and prioritize the significant tasks set out by the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the African Union’s Agenda 2063.

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