On December 4, 2020, the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) on its website, Muhsinlar, issued two statements that were dedicated to its removal from the terrorist list by the US a month ago. The first statement was on behalf of the Central Office of the Turkestan Islamic Party. The second statement was issued on behalf of the TIP’s Syrian branch. Despite the similar content of both statements, each of them should be analyzed separately, since they conceal the motives and goals of the Uighur resistance against the repressive policies of communist China, as well as their views on Islamic jihad in general.
How Uighur Jihadists became a bone of contention between the US and China?
It is worth noting, exactly one month earlier, on November 5, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the removal of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), also known as the Turkestan Islamic Party, from the Terrorist Exclusion List in accordance with the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). “ETIM was removed from the list because, for more than a decade, there has been no credible evidence that ETIM continues to exist,” a State Department spokesperson said. As is known, ETIM was designated as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council resolutions 1267 and 1390 on 11 September 2002 for its alleged association with al Qaida, Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. As part of the “global war on terror”, on Aug. 19, 2002, then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage designated ETIM as a terrorist organization in a similar manner. At that time, China skillfully took advantage of the situation after the 9/11 attacks and achieved recognition of ETIM as a terrorist group by many members of the US-led “war on terror”.
Predictably, the Trump Administration’s decision to remove ETIM from the blacklist has provoked a panic reaction from official Beijing, which is pursuing a harsh repressive policy against the Muslim minority in Xinjiang region, detaining more than one million Uighurs, Kazakhs and ethnic Kyrgyz in the so-called “re-education camps”.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry angrily criticized the US for delisting ETIM from its list of terrorist organizations, saying it reflected Washington’s “double standards” on fighting global terrorism. However, the Washington-based Uighur Human Rights Project (UHRP), which is the voice of millions of destitute Uighurs around the world, strongly supported the State Department’s decision calling it “long overdue” and a “definitive rejection of China’s claims”. UHRP also called on the UN “to remove ETIM from its Consolidated List through a formal delisting process.”
The first statement of the TIP’s Central Office
The first statement was made on behalf of the Central Office of Turkestan Islamic Party and is entitled “Appeal to Islamic Ummah and oppressed Muslims of East Turkestan on the occasion of removing our Jamaat from the terrorist list”.
The statement’s authors described the reason for the creation of ETIM as a defensive measure against the tyranny of the “criminal Chinese state”. To make it clearer for readers, we present this entire paragraph: “In our Motherland, East Turkestan, which is a part of the Islamic World, savage atrocities continue by the enemy, the Chinese aggressors. The Chinese Kafirs (infidel) martyred or enslaved Muslims who did not have even a broken iron in their hands. In order to counter this tragic aggression, the Turkestan Islamic Party, led by Hassan Mahsum, formed an armed Islamic Jamaat abroad and set out to take practical action against China. As a result, this Jamaat has been developing sharia, military, political and propaganda activities. The Jamaat acted and is continuing to act this in order to regain their rights in accordance with the will of Allah.”
Then the statement quotes Surah al-Hajj (39) of the Qur’an: “Permission ˹to fight back˺ is ˹hereby˺ granted to those being fought, for they have been wronged. And Allah is truly Most Capable of helping them ˹prevail.”
Further, in its statement, TIP explained the reasons for including the Uighur Salafi-Jihadi group of ETIM on the global terrorist list. According to TIP, this was carried out according to the devious designs of Beijing, which managed to convince the world with false statements “about terrorist acts by the Uighurs.” “In front of our people and the people of the world, the Chinese aggressors tried to present as the terrorist act all our just armed jihad against the Chinese, and in the end, they achieved some results, and under this condition, the East Turkestan Muslims were the victims of misinformation, but this became the reason for the understanding of the world’s peoples about the real face of China”, mentions the statement.
The statement noted the US government’s legitimate actions, which “removed us from the terrorist list, recognizing that they had wrongly put us on the list of terrorists because of fraud by the Chinese side.” “This means that the East Turkestan Muslims’ armed actions against the Chinese aggressors are righteous one from a humanitarian point of view as well”, the statement stated.
The statement underlined the plight of Uighur Muslims in East Turkestan living “under the material and spiritual oppression of the Chinese aggressors.” At the end of the statement, TIP called on Uighur co-religionists around the world “to take part in holy jihad, which frees oppressed people from Chinese tyranny and leads to Islamic freedom, and to support TIP materially and spiritually. At the end of the statement, TIP prayed on Allah Almighty to hasten and succeed in performing the blessed jihad against the Chinese aggressors.
The second statement of the TIP’s Syrian Wing
As we noted above, the Syrian branch of the Turkestan Islamic Party made a separate statement in response to the US government’s decision to remove the ETIM from the global terrorist list. It is worth noting that the content of the two statements and their anti-Chinese ideology are similar. In this regard, we have focused on precisely those thoughts and points in the TIP’s Syrian branch statement that do not echo the previous statement by its parent organization, the TIP’s Central Office.
At the beginning of its statement, the TIP’s Syrian branch noted that following the recent decision by the US government to exclude the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (i.e., Turkestan Islamic Party) from the terrorist list, they are going to act against China as a representative of the Eastern Turkestan Muslims. The statement says, «in this moment when all the people of Turkestan are happy with that decision by the U.S. government, besides thanking our Lord of Allah, we also thank to all the different states and organizations which contributed to make such a decision».
The statement noted that although Uighurs were included in the terrorist list of America and some other countries due to the trickery of the Chinese aggressors, who are enemies of the whole world, TIP with the help of the great Lord and the support of brothers from all parts of the world, continued to fight against the “Chinese enemies” until today.
The TIP’s Syrian branch further claims that they are not terrorists, but fighters for the future of the oppressed Uighur people. Therefore, the American government, making sure that “we are not terrorists, but fighters against oppression, fighters who demand their own true freedom and all human rights, announced the exclusion of us from the terrorist list.”
In this regard, the TIP’s Syrian branch expressed its pleasure with the decision of the US government and hopes that other countries around the world will make a wise decision like the American government and help the oppressed in Turkestan.
In addition, the authors of the statement called on their Uighur brothers and sisters around the world to stand together as one body against China, the “common enemy” of humanity. “Because the Chinese are not only the enemy of the people of Turkestan but also the common enemy of all states”, the TIP’s Syrian branch believes. Jihadists of East Turkestan noted that if before the Uighurs acted separately, now it is time to unite. The TIP’s subsidiary concluded its statement by citing the Holy Book of Islam, in which Allah says that “the believers are but one brotherhood, so make peace between your brothers” (Surah Al-Hujurat, 10, Quran).
It is unsurprising that the US State Department’s decision to de-blacklist ETIM inspired anti-Chinese rhetoric among Uighur jihadists. After that, the press service of TIP and its radio “Islam Avazi” through the Telegram channel began to give clear signals that the Uighur militant group is not conducting and does not intend to conduct jihad against the West. Abu Omar al-Turkistani, one of the TIP warlords in Syria’s Idlib, said, “We are not hostile to either the US or the West. We are hostile to China, which refused to grant us political rights.”
In this situation, it remains unclear whether the TIP leader Abdul Haq al-Turkestani has anything to do with the above two statements. Because, according to the US Treasury Department, he is a US and UN-designated terrorist and has been a member of al Qaeda’s elite Shura Council since 2005. For many decades, Abdul Haq al-Turkistani has been openly loyal to the Taliban’s top leader Haibatullah Akhunzada and the al Qaeda’s emir Ayman al-Zawahiri. Today, all three top emirs are successfully continuing their faithful fellowship in jihad.
It is, however, not expected that following the US government’s decision, the UN and other countries of the post-Soviet space, including Putin’s Russia, will decide to lift the sanctions from ETIM. Particularly, China’s Central Asian neighbors, most notably Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, which have huge debt to Beijing and highly dependent on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), met the news on Uighur jihadists de-blacklist very cautiously and suspicious. Therefore, they will continue to fully support China’s war against three evils: terrorism, extremism, and separatism within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The role of maritime power
The maritime environment is both a means of transport and a resource. The first aspect is obviously expressed through what is transported by ship: containers, oil, minerals, many objects and many resources of our daily life have passed through the sea before we use them. Data also crosses the sea, since submarine cables are the heart of the Internet, constituting the “real” face of the “virtual” world. For the second aspect, that of resources, it is either food, with mainly fishing, energy, fossil with oil and gas, or renewable with wind turbines and tide turbines, or minerals, starting from sand, whose exploitation is little known, but essential for many activities including construction.
It was from the fifteenth century, which corresponded to the beginning of the great discoveries, that the control of the seas became an important topic. At that time, the British Sir Walter Raleigh theorized its importance: “Whoever owns the sea holds the trade of the world; whoever holds the trade holds the wealth; whoever holds the wealth of the world owns the world itself ”. Gradually, the United Kingdom becomes the maritime superpower par excellence, supplanting a Spain and Portugal soon exhausted by the colonization of a South America too big for them and unable to compete with a France that is too terrestrial. At the end of the 19th century, Britain controlled major sea routes and her empire was vast, with the great outdoors of Australia and Canada and the British Indies.
But the entry into the twentieth century coincided with the arrival of a new actor in the oceans, the United States. The theorist in charge here is Alfred Mahan, who has updated Raleigh’s theory by specifying that control of the sea passes through that of sea routes and that in this matter everything is played at the level of the straits. The pivotal year in this sense is undoubtedly 1914: it corresponds to the inauguration of the Panama Canal, a maritime passage controlled by Uncle Sam, but also to the beginning of the First World War, which at the same time weakens the United Kingdom, due to of the energy spent in the conflict that does not compensate for territorial gains in Africa, the Middle East and the Pacific. The turning point that completes the transformation of the United States into the great maritime power of the second half of the 20th century is World War II. Europeans, including those belonging to the victorious camp, are too weakened to maintain their historical prerogatives, especially when colonial empires become complicated to maintain for political as well as demographic reasons.
The United States emerged from the war with a colossal military and merchant fleet (thanks, among other things, to the Liberty ships), and was able to reconstitute those of its new allies in the Western camp. Moreover, this aid does not prevent the Americans from making their own interests prevail over those of their allies, as with the Suez crisis where they countered the Franco-British intervention that had militarily managed to regain control of this strategic channel with diplomatic means. This domination of the seas was hardly contested by the Russians, reduced to an asymmetrical confrontation, symbolized by submarines. It is important to stress that Russia does not have direct access to the oceans, a resource of the United States.
In 1990, the Soviet Union collapsed, but a phantom threat already hovered over the almighty awakening of America, that of China. Under the impact of Deng Xiao Ping’s reforms, its economy was starting to become competitive and the country was using its huge pool of cheap labor to become “the factory of the world”. This economy is export-oriented and generates colossal shipping traffic, to which the Dragon is adding its touch: rapidly, Chinese shipping companies and shipbuilding are becoming key players in their respective sectors. From a military point of view, the Middle Kingdom had an almost insignificant navy in the late 1980s, but today it is second in the world behind the United States, even if the latter maintain a good advantage.
On land, the Chinese strategy consists first of all in controlling the space contained within a first chain of islands corresponding to the East China Sea and the South China Sea, even if in the latter it means not respecting the rights of other coastal states. or even intimidate Taiwan, the “rebel province”. The next step is to dominate the space within a second chain of islands located further offshore, which would put China in direct contact with US possessions, with the risk of confrontation that this entails. The so-called “pearl necklace” strategy, consisting in the development of Chinese infrastructures in the Indian Ocean, also connects the Middle Kingdom with another competitor, India, which wishes to assert its rights in this space that India considers its courtyard. Finally, China inaugurated its first overseas naval base in Djibouti in 2018, and others may follow in the years to come, such as Walvis Bay in Namibia. This expansion solidifies China’s rank as a world power, while Russia has lost most of its network of naval bases around the world with the collapse of the USSR.
The power of the sea is composite, made up of elements that multiply each other more than they add up. The first of these is access to the sea, without which nothing is possible. Therefore, the United Kingdom, an island country, is naturally predisposed to the projection of maritime power. The United States, bordered by two large maritime spaces, is also favored. For Russia, things are less obvious, as for China; in fact, the goal of the pearl necklace strategy is both to allow access to the sea from peripheral regions such as Xinjiang and to control sea routes. Moreover, in its time, Russia had tried to develop its access to the sea with “the race for warm seas”.
Once you have mastered access to the sea, it is necessary to be able to move, thanks to the sea routes and more particularly to the strategic passages. Today, the Americans retain control of it, although the Middle Kingdom tries to weave its web. For example, instead of wanting to get its hands on the Panama Canal, China is supporting a competing canal project in Nicaragua, even if the latter is stopped for the moment. Traffic also requires a merchant fleet, and China is among the champions of shipping and also shipbuilding, where Americans are largely left behind, held back by a protectionist Jones Act that maintains a significant merchant fleet, but marginalized in the globalization.
In general, where terrestrial space is largely controlled by our human societies, the sea escapes this phenomenon much more, to the point that it is still a space to be conquered in many ways. The polar regions, especially the icy Arctic Ocean, but also the seas surrounding the Antarctic continent, constitute a new frontier for humans. The seabed and its mineral resources are also often less known than terrestrial space.
Finally, one last consideration: the Italy – with the exception of the maritime republics – has not been able to exploit its projection of maritime power. And this is one of the reasons, certainly not the only one, that has prevented – and prevents – Italy from having a credible, authoritative foreign policy and above all capable of stopping Turkish hegemonic ambitions.
Indian Chronicle: Exposing the Indian Hybrid warfare against Pakistan
In recent years Indian hybrid warfare against Pakistan has intensified manifold to malign Pakistan Internationally through disinformation and propaganda tactics. Hybrid warfare has mainly been described as achieving war-like objectives with the help of fake news, disinformation, and propaganda. The Objectives of Hybrid warfare are mostly to secure long term victory against the opponent. Similarly, India has launched massive hybrid warfare against Pakistan, which was uncovered by EU DisinfoLab in its report called “Indian Chronicle”.
EU DisinfoLab is an independent organization working to expose and tackle disinformation campaigns targeting the European Union and its member states. The organization has claimed that the disinformation campaign against Pakistan has been active since 2005, “a massive online and offline 15-year ongoing influence operation supporting Indian interests and discrediting Pakistan internationally”.
In a recent investigation EU DisinfoLab has exposed a malicious Indian campaign against Pakistan. In the report, “Indian Chronicle” EU DisinfoLab has exposed the dubious use of media outlets, NGOs, and fake personnel by India to malign Pakistan. The disinformation campaign mainly targeted the United Nations and the European Union through more than 750 fake media outlets and 10 fake NGOs. According to the report, “uncovered an entire network of coordinated UN-accredited NGOs promoting Indian interests and criticizing Pakistan repeatedly. We could tie at least 10 of them directly to the Srivastava family, with several other dubious NGOs pushing the same messages.”
According to the report the disinformation campaign is supported by the Srivastava group. The Srivastava group has helped in “resurrected dead NGOs” to spread fake news. The report says that “Our investigation led to the finding of 10 UN-accredited NGOs directly controlled by the Srivastava Group, which our full report introduces at length. Their common trait? The fact that they all rose from the ashes of real NGOs. Indian Chronicles effectively benefited from the track record of these organizations while pursuing their agenda: discrediting Pakistan and promoting Indian interests at UN conferences and hearings,”.
Moreover, Asian News International (ANI), a major news agency in India has provided a platform for suck fake news campaigns. The aim of the Srivastava group and ANI media outlet is “to reinforce pro-Indian and anti-Pakistan (and anti-Chinese) feelings” in India, and “internationally, to consolidate the power and improve the perception of India, to damage the reputation of other countries and ultimately benefit from more support from international institutions such as the EU and the UN”.
The report claim that the organizations funded by the Srivastava group-sponsored trips for European Parliament members to Kashmir. “The organizations created by the Srivastava Group in Brussels organized trips for Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to Kashmir, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. Some of these trips led to much institutional controversy, as the delegations of MEPs were often presented as official EU delegations when they were in fact not traveling on behalf of the Parliament,”. Such sponsored trips aimed to build a positive image of India, while spreading disinformation about the alleged claims of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir.
Moreover, India has been actively involved in portraying Pakistan as a terrorist-sponsored state through its disinformation and fake news technique. For instance, India is lobbying strongly at FATF to put Pakistan on the blacklist.
India has also supported and sponsored Baloch separatist leaders and spread disinformation through their fake media outlets as mentioned in the EU DisinfoLab report.“These UN-accredited NGOs work in coordination with non-accredited think-tanks and minority-rights NGOs in Brussels and Geneva. Several of them – like the European Organization for Pakistani Minorities (EOPM), Baluchistan House, and the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF) – were directly but opaquely created by the Srivastava group,”one of the examples is Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian spy who was captured in Pakistan.
The Indian Chronicle report has exposed the dubious face of India and the administrative structure of the United Nations and the European Union. Indian involvement in the spread of disinformation and resurrection of dead people and NGOs has exposed its long-standing for Human rights and democracy. Meanwhile, the reports have also exposed the administrative structure of the UN and EU, as they failed to notice the activities of fake UN-accredited NGOs and spread of disinformation through their affiliated NGOs.
Hybrid Warfare: Threats to Pakistani Security
‘Victory smiles upon those who anticipate the changes in the character of war’-Giulio Douhet
Hybrid threats are becoming a norm in Pakistan and if we want to move forward in this age of technological advancements, cybercrimes, and the use of social media, we must have a wholesome response mechanism.
Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that employs not only conventional forms of warfare but irregular with it as well. It involves propaganda, cyber-attacks, state-sponsored terrorism, electoral intervention, and many more means of multi-dimensional approaches towards war which are used by militarized non-state actors. The term ‘Hybrid’ came into use around 2005-2006 due to the Israel-Hezbollah war (“Lessons from Lebanon: Hezbollah and Hybrid Wars – Foreign Policy Research Institute” 2016) and became a hot-topic in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. Using non-confrontational means can lead to internal struggles and crumbling of the target. What direct force won’t get you can be easily achieved by infiltration and multi-faceted resources. It’s neither character of war nor its outcome that defines it as a hybrid war, but the changing tactics (“State and Non-State Hybrid Warfare” 2018). In a world where everyone, from wealthy states to those caught in throes of hunger, is armed to the teeth, there are ways to achieve socio-political objectives through the use of violent and non-violent non-state actors.
Pakistan – A Target
Pakistan has risen to incredible heights despite it being a relatively young nation and this is only proved further by the interest international players have in its internal workings. Several factors contribute to the important stature Pakistan holds in the international community such as the Pak-China alliance, its geostrategic location, military aptitude, Russian interests in the Indian Ocean, Deep Sea Gwadar Port (One Belt One Road Project), neighbor to Afghanistan (a country existing as a battleground for proxies), etc. All these reasons make sure to keep Pakistan on the radar.
Though it may be secure militarily, Pakistan is still vulnerable to hybrid threats due to internal dynamics, numerous conflicting interests of nations in state-affairs, and increasing non-state actors. South Asian nuclearization has all but guaranteed that a full-fledged war between Pakistan and India is unlikely therefore the latter uses hybrid warfare to weaken Pakistan from within.
Evolutionary Nature of War
There was truth to Heraclites’s words when he claimed that change is the only constant in our world. The social theory of evolutionary change tells us that individuals, communities, societies, and states are always in a state of motion, continuously evolving according to the era. War is born from man, it is only fair that if a man changes, so shall war. It has become more complex; the stakes have raised from territorial boundaries to the maintenance of world order and preservation of state sovereignty. Wars are no longer fought on the borders, skirmishes aside, the real destruction takes place within. Due to the paradigm shift after the Cold War (Ball 2018), there rose a need for legal, economical, socio-political, and informational means of warfare. It is used as a way to undermine other nation-states in pursuit of national power; the international system is not only a race but also a way to tear others down.
Threats to Pakistani Security
To secure Pakistan from all sides, we must first analyze the threats it faces from all sides. Conventional Warfare used to be seen as one dimensional and it only perceived assault to be done through the land, air, or sea channels. However, now it is fought in various intangible zones.
India is a budding regional hegemon due to its political and economic growth including hidden agendas. Pakistan is perceived to be a direct threat to India especially after the launch of the CPEC project, perceived to be undermining its hold over the region, which is why it is employing stratagems of hybrid warfare to internally weaken Pakistan. Till now India has used State-Sponsored terrorism, funded insurgencies, operated terror cells, and even sent fighter jets into Pakistani Airspace as an attempt to ruin its reputation in the international community.
There has been growing instability in Afghanistan which has led to mass migrations across the porous border into Pakistan, with around 1.4 million registered Afghans (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 2018) and 1 million unregistered (“Amnesty International” 2019). India has its claws in Afghan matters as well and will use it to exploit Pakistan’s weaknesses even after US forces leave the arena. Afghan Government’s poor administrative capability especially after the return of DAESH (Tribune 2020) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan are threats to Pakistan as well as regional peace and are a major cause of lawlessness in the country and has a spillover effect for its neighbors.
Ideologically speaking, Iran is a sectarian threat to Pakistan and its Port Chahbahar stands to lose active traffic once CPEC is fully functional which means it stands as an instigator of hybrid warfare and it would be a risk to overlook it based on past good relations.
Even after the Cold War, strategic rivalry and animosity between the powers including Russia, America, and China still exist. The emergence of China as an economic superpower is perceived as a threat to the US due to which there is a major shift in its defensive posture towards the region.
The US has shown significant interest in Pakistan due to its geo-strategic location but not all interest has yielded positive results. They carried out a surgical strike for the capture and assassination of Osama-Bin-Laden. Such a breach of sovereignty and security is a hybrid threat.
There are several lobbies in Pakistan all vying for their own cause. The Iranian lobby has sectarian undercurrents. Sectarianism has always been one of the leading factors of the divide in the Muslim civilization and is the rising trend of terrorism.Such conflict itself is volatile and is deepening the rift between different sects(Shia-Sunni) of Pakistan, causing unrest.
Rising prices of commodities such as flour and sugar can lead to social unrest and discord. Such industries and their stocks are under the thumb of a select few, the elites. With the right bribes and conditions, even they would agree to sell out society.
Non-state actors are groups or organizations that have influence in the state but work independently and have their socio-political agendas (“Towards a Typology of Non-State Actors in ‘Hybrid Warfare’: Proxy, Auxiliary, Surrogate and Affiliated Forces” 2019). They work on political opportunities and mobilized grievances. Groups like BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army), TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan), and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are some of the major actors. Pakistan needs to focus on curbing Jihadist Terrorism as it is keeping it from leaving the grey list of FATF.
It refers to the spread of miscommunication. Propaganda and circulation of false news through social media are a relatively common way to cause turmoil in a community. Once a rumor is circling, there is no way to erase it. India claims that Pakistan is spreading the false narrative of ‘Islam being in danger’ to justify its actions, although untrue, is something that the Indians fully believe now. That Pakistani Intelligentsia is made solely to create narratives under which to attack India. Such beliefs further antagonize the states against each other.
Indian Chronicles are a prime example of information warfare being waged against Pakistan.
Channels such as Cyber-Jihad and Dark Web come under the purview of cyber warfare and are a threat to the fabric of society and its security in Pakistan.
Given the above discussed bleak prevailing internal security situation, Pakistan needs to formulate a short to mid and long-term response that curbs all external and internal parties alongside proxies from infiltrating and influencing the working of the state and affecting the masses.
For a full-spectrum approach, all domains should be covered such as diplomacy, defense, internal and external security, economic, informational, cyber, and media security.
There are steps to be followed through for active and effective quelling of hybrid threats. First, a strategy must be put for, then tactical action should be taken and lastly, the implementation process should be supervised and fully followed through.
The main focus of the state should be on deterrence towards, protection from, and prevention of hybrid threats to the state.
One must not forget that Hybrid war is a mix of both unconventional and conventional warfare, therefore a nation-wide response should include the intertwined operational capabilities of armed forces alongside political actors. Pakistan sees its security being threatened both by internal factors and external hostile/proxy elements. This is hampering state development. State-building and nation-building must go hand in hand if counter and deter such threats effectively.
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