As US President elect, Joe Biden gets ready to take over, he faces numerous foreign policy challenges. A lot of attention is currently focused on Washington’s approach vis-à-vis Tehran, under a Biden Administration.
During the course of the presidential campaign, and even in recent media interviews, Biden has spoken about conditional entry into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA/Iran agreement from which Donald Trump withdrew in 2018 – subject to Iran returning to full compliance to the deal. There have been indicators, that Biden may get on board the agreement unconditionally to give some space to the current government of Hassan Rouhani which will face elections in June 2021. Sanctions have taken their toll on the Iranian economy (Foreign Minister Javad Zarif recently stated, that sanctions have inflicted damage to the tune of 250 Billion USD), and hardline voices in Iran have become stronger – the last thing the US would want is hardliners capturing power.
For the US and it’s allies, the concern is about Iran’s nuclear program. In an interview to New York Times on December 2, Biden said:‘the best way to achieve getting some stability in the region” was to deal “with the nuclear program”.
For Iran, one of the major concerns is the fact, that the country’s economy is in doldrums. Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif have indicated this, on more than one occasion. After parliament recently gave a go ahead to a law, which also got approval from the country’s guardian council, which threatened to not permit UN inspections and to increase the level of uranium enrichment beyond the 2015 deal — in case sanctions were not removed within two months. Zarif clearly stated that these laws were not ‘irreversible’. Said Zarif:
‘The Europeans and USA can come back into compliance with the JCPOA and not only this law will not be implemented, but in fact the actions we have taken … will be rescinded. We will go back to full compliance.’
This law, which according to many would make it tougher for the Biden Administration to joining the JCPOA killing was the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on November 27, 2020.
Saudi factor
US dealings with Iran hinge on the overall geo-political dynamics of the Middle East, and have been influenced by the relations of Israel and Saudi Arabia with Tehran. During the Trump Administration, Israel and Saudi Arabia had a strong influence over US’ Iran policy. Even as Trump prepares to demit office, he is making it clear, that there will be no change in US ‘maximum pressure’ policy vis-à-vis Iran (in fact Iran has been projected as the main threat to security in the middle east). This includes imposition of sanctions, and also upping the ante vis-à-vis Iran via Saudi Arabia and Israel (serving and retired US officials point to an Israeli hand in the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh which would make US diplomacy vis-à-vis Iran tougher)
Biden too has indicated, that he will consult other countries with regard to his Iran policy. In his interview to the New York Times, the President elect said:‘In consultation with our allies and partners, we’re going to engage in negotiations and follow-on agreements to tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program,’
The key question is to what degree will Biden consult other stakeholders in the Middle East, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. According to observers, neither will have a veto over Biden’s Iran policy, as they did have during the Trump Administration (Trump had a strong personal rapport with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as the Saudi royal family). Here it would be pertinent to point out that while no US President can afford to neglect Israel or Saudi Arabia, Biden has been critical of Saudi Arabia, specifically in the context of its Human Rights record, in the past.
Saudi Arabia and the Biden Administration
Keeping this in mind, Saudi Arabia has sought to build a perception, that it is open to removing the economic blockade vis-à-vis Qatar (the blockade was imposed by Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries in June 2017) . A statement was made by the Saudi Foreign Minister regarding possible headway between Qatar and other countries which had imposed a blockade.
days after Jared Kushner’s visit to the Middle East, where he met with the Saudi Crown Prince as well as the Emir of Qatar, and is supposed to have discussed the resumption of Qatari planes using Saudi and UAE’s airspace. Said the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud:
“We have made significant progress in the last few days thanks to the continuing efforts of Kuwait but also thanks to strong support from President Trump’
Senior Qatari officials, including the Foreign Minister, said that while a resolution was welcome it needed to be based on ‘mutual respect’. Interestingly, Iran which shares cordial ties with Qatar welcomed the possibility of removal of the blockade. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Saeed Khatibzadeh, stated:
‘We straightforwardly and promptly welcomed any settlement of tensions in the Persian Gulf region. The Iranian foreign minister adopted a stance on the issue and said that within the framework of the good-neighbourliness policy, we embrace any move at any level to politically resolve the crisis in the Persian Gulf’
Statement regarding being consulted for US getting on board JCPOA
Saudis have also indicated, that they would like to be consulted with regard to US getting on board the JCPOA. Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan while speaking at a conference stated:
“I think we’ve seen as a result of the after-effects of the JCPOA that not involving the regional countries results in a build-up of mistrust and neglect of the issues of real concern and of real effect on regional security.”
While the foreign minister indicated that Saudis have not been consulted so far by Biden, he also stated that Riyadh was willing to work with Biden.
Conclusion
Biden unlike Trump is likely to consult important stakeholders but on the Iran issue, he will have limited space and can not allow other countries to exercise inordinate influence. Biden is likely to work closely with US allies, and is likely to go by the advice of the European Union in general and the E3 in particular. Statements from Tehran indicate, that in spite of the Trump Administration’s aggressive approach vis-à-vis Iran, there is space for negotiation though Biden may have to give up on his earlier conditionalities of getting on board the JCPOA. Iran on its part should not allow hardliners to dominate the narrative.
