Many scholars argue that what is happening between the major powers in East Asia at the present time is what actually happened between the major powers in Europe in 1914, and there is a rising power in East Asia causes a threat to other states
Historically speaking when a rising power challenges a global power the war is inevitable and sometimes it’s a matter of time. The situation in East Asia is a little bit like the situation in Europe in 1914, at that time there was a rising power-seeking for the hegemony and challenges the other major powers, so the war between them was unavoidable. Comparing that with what is happening in East Asia, we will find that in East Asia there is a rising power, and this power became a challenge to the major powers not only in East Asia but also in the global arena.
From realism theory perspective, as we know that relists focus on the international system and states, they explain that the international system is an anarchic system and state is the most important actor in this anarchic world, so states have to preserve its security and interests against any power when a state becomes too much powerful that cause a threat to other major powers, and that might cause a war between the rising state and other states, and that is a conflict to balance against the powerful state.
Apply the realism theory on the First World War, the First World War was unavoidable and that because of the collapse of the balance of power in Europe and the rising of other powers such as Germany and its challenge to the major powers as Russia and Britain. According to the classical realists, they argue that major wars can happen when a state has superiority or an overbalance of power. Germany after the collapse of the Bismarck system started to increase its power and challenge the major power in central Europe, the rise of Germany caused a shift to the balance of power at that time.
The realists also argue that what is happening in East Asia is like what happened in Europe in 1914. The classical realists argue that the balance of power in a multi-polar system is most stable, while neo-realists as Waltz argues that the bipolarity is most solid and most stable, a world controlled by two states is better than a world dominated by four, five, or six powers, and that because in the multi-polarity the alliances could give up on each other’s any time, moreover, in the bipolarity states don’t want to depend on other states military power, but they can depend on their own powers. In East Asia there is a change in the equilibrium system, some the states become too much powerful, for instance, China, China now is a rising power in East Asia, we can clearly see the economic growth of china, and the military forces, and the rise of China might cause a threat to its neighbors in East Asia, frankly speaking not only in East Asia but also cause a threat to other global powers as the United States and its European allies, in this regard, the realists they emphasize that the shifting of power in East Asia might cause a conflict or a war among states because the system is an anarchic global system. But if we will compare China with other major powers in the global arena as the United States we will find that China still not that powerful to cause a threat to the U.S., maybe China has economic ties with East Asia countries, but they still not a good alliances, while the United States has its alliances in both continents Europe and East Asia, and that is a reason that proves that it is might hard to see a conflict or war in East Asia. But what about the border conflicts, China till nowadays has border conflict with other states such as India, last May Chinese and Indian soldiers fought against each other in the Ladakh region and some Indian Soldiers were killed, also the maritime conflicts between China and its neighbors, these conflicts might cause a conflict between rising China and its neighbors including Japan, Philippines in the near future, and this conflict the United States will take part in it in order to help its allies.
John Mearsheimer as an offensive neo-realist, in his debates about the rising of China he always argues that China won’t rise peacefully, and the rise of China will lead to a direct confrontation between China and the United States and that because states in the international politics always want to preserve and maintain their security, they only care about their security, and also want to be a hegemony, in this regard, the U.S. won’t let China take its place in international politics, and won’t let China control Asia or other regions, and they might go war against one another. The scholar Steven Walt explains the Balance-of- Threat and argues that equilibrium anti the threat caused by other states in the international arena, China is a big country, large population, economic growth also military growth all of these elements cause a threat to its neighbors in East Asia. East Asia is a very important region to the United States and its allies, former America president Obama mentioned that before and said: “the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region. The Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority, and that’s creating jobs and opportunity for the American people.” From President Obama’s speech we can note how Asia is a very important region to the U.S. and its allies.
Although theories predict about a potential conflict between China and the U.S., one more thing to consider is the nuclear weapon, China and U.S. both have nuclear weapons and nuclear weapon plays a vital role in maintaining peace between them as what happened during the Cold War many scholars argue that what made the U.S. and the Soviet Union didn’t go to war was the presence of the nuclear weapon (nuclear weapon deterrence).
Unlike the realism theory that focuses on the international system and the structure of the system, and argues that the global system is anarchic, the state is the main actor in this anarchic system, and the state has to protect its own interests, thus, the state can go to war to preserve its interests and security. The liberalism theory focuses on the role of the institutions, organizations, etc., and how they can play a very vital role to maintain peace and stability in this anarchic world, liberalists interpret the role of the non-government organization in reducing the role of the state in the international politics in order to mitigate conflicts and wars among states. Moreover, liberalism focuses on peace and the means to achieve lasting peace among states in the global arena. For the liberal, economic integration plays a significant role to preserve peace, economic integration and interdependence make countries want to collaborate with each other, instead of fight against one another.
Liberalism explains the main reason for the outbreak of the First World War was the absence and lack of organizations and institutions at that time, and there no means to resolve the conflicts among countries. For Democratic Peace Theory, the war was most likely to occur and that because at that time not all the states were democratic states, and for that theory, the democratic states can fight and go to war against the non-democratic states, although Germany at that time started to be a democratic country, that didn’t help to prevent such a war, by contrast, helped Germany to enter in such a war and with the support of its people.
Apply the liberalism theory on East Asia we will find that East Asia countries in the twenty-first century are more independent, and they have economic ties with each other, and because of the economic interdependence between the countries in East Asia we will find that even they are rivals, but economic ties will play an important role to prevent a conflict or war between them. China as a rising power in East Asia its economy highly relies on its neighbors and other European countries such as the U.S., China after the reform and opening-up policy increased its economy. Although the rise of the volume trade exchange between China and its neighbors and China and the U.S., that didn’t prevent the tension between China and the U.S. as what happened between them because of the trade, the trade conflict between them that have started in 2018, the two countries have increased the tariffs, the United States increased the tariffs by approximately 25%, and China increased the tariffs to be 5% and 25%, this tension between the two counties has reduced the volume of trade between them, and some of the scholars explained that the trade conflict between the United States and China would have a great impact on the global trade.
The scholar Waltz argues that the economic integration and interdependence can’t prevent the conflict between the U.S. and China, go back to the First World War at that time there was economic ties between some of the European countries but that didn’t prevent the outbreak of the major war between the major powers, because the national security is more important than the economic. In Asia, there are some countries still non-democratic countries, to the democratic peace theory argues that the democratic states don’t go war and fight against each other, so they assert that U.S, Japan won’t fight, Japan and U.S. are allies, by contrast, China is a communist state that also might be a reason that leads to a conflict between China and U.S.
Constructivism theory doesn’t focus on the international system like realism theory, or the state and organizations like liberalism, Constructivism focuses on the ideas, values, and norms. Constructivist as Alex Wendt argues that global relations decided and fixed not by the nature of human beings but by the ideas, and how people share these ideas. Go back to the First World War, constructivism explains that states as Germany and other major powers had the same ideas at that time, the ideas were each country wanted to be powerful and expand its territory. They didn’t share the ideas with each other’s; instead they went to war against one another.
To conclude, what is happening in East Asia nowadays might be the same as what happened in Europe in 1914 and the rise of a major power in East Asia as the rise of China could cause a threat to major powers in Asia and Europe, but it does not mean that it will certainly lead to war. Anyway, in this unpredictable international arena, it is difficult to predict what will happen tomorrow and what changes the world will witness.