The African continent has been on top of the agenda of the policymakers in all periods. From the historical aspect, the conflict of interests was emerged in the era of colonization, when the global powers did not hesitate to conquer various parts of Africa for valuable resources such as gold, ivory, salt, and more. They all wanted these resources because they needed them for manufacturing. As time went on, Africans wanted to design their destiny by themselves, so today’s 54 African states emerged mainly starting from the middle of the 20th century. In modern times, however, with the sovereignty of African countries, the rules have changed so that familiar and new powers came not to conquer their lands but to invest in their markets.
Why is Africa so important?
In the global dimension, the resource-rich African continent is one of the fastest-growing consumer markets since household consumption has risen even faster than its GDP in the past years. Furthermore, the average annual gross domestic product growth has consistently surpassed the world average. Numerically, on the potential market of 1.35 billion people, since 2010, at a compound rate, consumer expenditure has increased 3.9 % annually and reached US$1.4 trillion in 2015. This figure’s expected level is US$2.1 trillion by 2025 and US$2.5 trillion by the end of 2030.
On the other hand, a massive increase in the continent’s youthful age segment in a rapidly growing population creates a suitable environment for industrial development. The median age on the continent is 19.7, while this number is 37.4 in China, 38.1 in the U.S., 42.9 in the EU, and 30.6 globally. Moreover, the significant youth factor enables the faster spread of access to the internet and mobile phones. Besides the traditional spheres, apparently, the digital industry’s future is bright as well in Africa.
Africa’s significance partly lies in its geographical position, and thus the potentials it creates. The African ports are the vital gateways for domestic and worldwide export and import operations. Albeit currently, the African economies’ exports are mainly commodity-based; in the long run, monoculture economies will diversify as they will grow. So, the ports will play an essential role in ensuring the sustainability of the more robust, resilient, and diverse economic dynamics in the continent’s economies through the exports and imports of industrial products and other manufactured goods. Additionally, these ports will not solely serve African economies; it will substantially contribute to the global supply chain systems as modern transportation facilities.
The traditional and new players in Africa
Africa is very attractive for investors with respect to the positive trends and opportunities in economic growth. The EY’s 9th edition of the Africa Attractiveness report published in September 2019, denotes the African continent in the first place in the world according to the 2018 FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) to GDP data.
According to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2020, the top 5 investors in the African continent are respectively the Netherlands (US$79 billion), France (US$53 billion), the United Kingdom (US$49 billion), the United States (US$48 billion) and China (US$46 billion). Interestingly, while other countries in the list lessened their direct investments between 2014 and 2018, only the Netherlands (US$20 billion) and China (US$14 billion) have increased their investments in Africa.
The flow of investments is engrossingly intricate. The US has been warning countries that some security risks might accompany technology developed by Chinese firms like Huawei and ZTE. Nonetheless, Huawei and ZTE built and laid fiber-optic and submarine cables off Africa’s coasts. In this context, Chinese technological infrastructure constitutes the high-tech network’s backbone in some states on the continent within the “Digital Silk Road.” For instance, in Ethiopia, the direct investment in the tech sector was US$2.4 billion, while this figure was US$1.8 billion both in Niger and Zimbabwe. It seems China is in an advantageous position in Africa since it forms the “infrastructure of the future” by helping drive the growth of mobile phone and internet penetration, in contradistinction to the US.
Apart from the conventional forces, some new countries, such as Turkey and Russia, are eager to penetrate the African markets. Turkey’s Africa initiative started in 2003. In 15 years, the number of Turkish embassies in Africa has significantly risen from 12 to 44, direct Turkish investments have skyrocketed from 100 million to US$6,5 billion, and Turkey’s trade volume with the continental countries increased by six-fold, reaching US$17.5 billion. In addition, Turkey is the second-largest investor in Ethiopia with US$2.5 billion, and in recent years had increased its political influence on Northeastern Africa.
Russia has a deep cooperation experience with the African states from the Soviet era. After the collapse of the USSR, successor Russia strived to perpetuate the relations but mostly failed due to a focus shift to its domestic affairs. Still, in this period, it preserved its political influence area to some extent in the specific regions of the African continent. However, bilateral relations were exposed to a radical renewal from the first Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi on October 23-24 in 2019.
In 2018, Russia’s trade with African countries increased by more than 17% and exceeded US$20 billion. At the Sochi summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated his expectation for at least double the volume of trade in the next 4-5 years, which means a jump from US$20 billion to US$40 billion. Recently, on November 23, at an interactive webinar organized by the Federation Council of Russia, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Russia, and Business Russia Association, Russian officials have once again demonstrated their intention to restore the historic relationships through cooperation in numerous spheres.
The obstacles and constraints
Albeit Africa provides innumerable opportunities, it has some structural problems accompanied by some inter-state and intra-state conflicts and disputes. Terrorism and disintegration are still the foremost challenges for the continent. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, which monitors incidents of conflict around the world, found that there had been 21.600 incidents of armed conflict in Africa till November 2019. For the same period in 2018, that number was just 15.874. That represents a 36% increase.
Many nations on the African continent have performed poorly in maintaining stable economic growth rates and achieving appreciable economic development levels. This might be linked to a list of factors, political instability in the first instance since it dramatically diminishes the economy’s productive and transactional capacities. It is estimated that there have been at least 100 successful coups in Africa in the past four decades, with more than twice the number of coup attempts. Consequently, there is an apparent correlation between the destabilization in the political theater and economic disbalance.
Most of Africa lags the rest of the world in coverage of crucial infrastructure classes, including energy, road and rail transportation, and water infrastructure. For instance, nearly 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa lack access to grid electricity, accounting for over two-thirds of the global population without power. Additionally, the infrastructure notion plays an essential role in the region in terms of efficiency. For example, agriculture is Africa’s largest economic sector, representing 15% of the continent’s total GDP, or more than $100 billion annually. Experts estimate that sub-Saharan Africa alone requires additional annual investments of as much as $50 billion to make the agricultural system work better. It can be clearly seen that from the economic development aspect, closing this infrastructure gap is vital for the continent as it would raise the quality of life and stimulate the growth of the business sector.
What to expect?
In light of numerous indicators, the future of the African continent seems to be quite complicated. According to recent UN forecasts, the continent is expected to double its population by 2050. If the investment inflow would not go up, Africa will face a major demographical challenge. Otherwise, the intellectual capital and human resources will contribute to a tiger economy supported by continuous investments, and this factor will be a path to prosperity.
A major step was taken towards integration-related hurdles in March 2018 with the signing of The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement by 54 African states. Namely, it presents a tremendous opportunity for African states by bringing 30 million people out of extreme poverty and to raise the incomes of 68 million others who live on less than $5.50 per day. The agreement also comprises the simplification of the customs procedures that would drive $292 billion of the $450 billion in potential income gains. Also, customs procedures simplifications imply the development of the supply chain systems in the continent. The agreement’s implementation can be an usher in the integrated development to enhance long-term sustainability in African countries.
It will undoubtedly be a long journey for the Africans to overcome all the issues. However, the emergence of a new generation with progressive thoughts might condition a different environment on the continent. The most crucial factors within the process will be innovation, discipline, and, foremost, patience. In that case, the sustainable and dynamic African economy will play an essential role in the global system. On the whole, still there are some positive signs to be optimistic about the future of Africa; as it says in the famous African proverb, “However long the night, the dawn will break.”
Pragmatic Proposals to Optimize Russia’s Pledged Rehabilitation of Ethiopia
Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Evgeny Terekhin pledged that his homeland will help rehabilitate his hosts after getting a clearer understanding of the full extent of the damage that the terrorist-designated Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) inflicted on the northern part of the country throughout the course of its approximately half-year-long occupation of the Afar and Amhara Regions. China’s Xinhua recently cited official Ethiopian government statistics about this which claim that the Amhara Region suffered damages upwards of approximately $5.7 billion.
According to their data, the TPLF partially or fully damaged 1,466 health facilities and vandalized water, electricity, and transport infrastructure. 1.9 million children are out of school in that region after more than 4,000 schools were damaged by the group. Over 1.8 million people were displaced from the Afar and Amhara Regions while 8.3 million there are suffering from food insecurity. The scale of this humanitarian crisis is massive and the direct result of the US-led West’s Hybrid War on Ethiopia that was waged to punish the country for its balanced foreign policy between the US and China.
It’s here where Russia can rely on its recent experiences in helping to rehabilitate Syria and the Central African Republic (CAR) in order to optimize its pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopian. Those two countries are much more war-torn than Ethiopia is, the latter of which only saw fighting in its northern regions instead of the entirety of its territory like the prior two did. The most urgent task is to ensure security in the liberated areas, which can be advanced by summer 2021’s military cooperation agreement between Russia and Ethiopia.
This pact could potentially see Russia sharing more details of its earlier mentioned experiences in order to enhance the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s (ENDF) security and stabilization operations in the northern part of the country. Syria and the CAR survived very intense Hybrid Wars that utilized cutting-edge military tactics and strategies against them similar to those that were subsequently directed against Ethiopia by the TPLF. It would help the ENDF to learn more about the challenges connected to ensuring security in areas that have been liberated from such contemporary Hybrid War forces.
The next order of business is to help the many victims of that country’s humanitarian crisis. Russia’s experience with assisting Syria in this respect, which suffered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises in decades, can be of use to Ethiopia. This is especially the case when it comes to aiding its internally displaced people. Their immediate needs must be met and maintained, which might require urgent support from that country’s trusted partners such as Russia. Provisioning such in an effective and timely manner can also improve Russia’s international reputation too, especially among Africans.
Northern Ethiopia’s post-war rehabilitation must be comprehensive and sustainable. The country’s Medemer philosophy — which has been translated as “coming together” – will form the basis of these efforts. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed touched upon this in his 2019 Nobel Peace Prize speech and his book of the same name that was released earlier that year. Its English translation hasn’t yet been published but Medemer was explained at length by high-level Ethiopian officials during an early 2020 US Institute of Peace panel talk and in Ethiopian writer Linda Yohannes’ insightful book review.
An oversimplification of it in the economic context is that Medemer preaches the need for comprehensive, inclusive, and sustainable growth through public-private and other partnerships that bring prosperity to all of its people, which in turn strengthens socio-political relations between them. It seeks to apply positive aspects of foreign models while avoiding the bad ones. The Medemer mentality aspires to balance cooperation with competition, constantly improving itself as needed, in order to synchronize and synergize Ethiopia’s natural economic advantages in people, location, and resources.
In practice, this could see Russian public and private companies partnering with Ethiopia’s primarily public ones to rehabilitate the northern regions’ damaged infrastructure. Since sustainable growth is one of Medemer’s key concepts, the country’s Russian partners could also train more laborers, social workers, teachers, and doctors throughout the course of these projects while offering scholarships to some internally displaced youth for example. In that way, Russia and Ethiopia could truly embody the Medemer spirit by literally bringing their people closer together as a result of these noble efforts.
All the while, Russia’s international media flagships of RT and Sputnik should be active on the ground documenting the entire experience. The immense influence that Moscow has in shaping global perceptions can be put to positive use in exposing the foreign-backed TPLF’s countless crimes against humanity in northern Ethiopia. This can powerfully counteract the US-led West’s information warfare campaign against its government, which misportrays the TPLF as innocent victims of the “genocidal” ENDF, exactly as similar Russian media efforts have done in debunking Western lies against Syria.
The world wouldn’t only benefit by learning more about the US-led West’s lies against Ethiopia, but also in seeing how effectively Russia is working to reverse the damage that their TPLF proxies inflicted in the northern part of that country. Russia is also a victim of their information warfare campaign, which misportrays the Kremlin as a dangerous and irresponsible international actor. The truth, however, is that Russia is a peaceful and responsible international actor that has a documented track record of cleaning up the West’s Hybrid War messes in Syria, the CAR, and prospectively soon even Ethiopia too.
Upon taking the lead in rehabilitating northern Ethiopia, Russia should diversify the stakeholders in that country’s prosperity in coordination with its hosts. It’s in Ethiopia’s interests as well to receive assistance from as many responsible and trusted partners as possible. Russia can help by requesting that relevant aid and multilateral rehabilitation efforts be placed on the agenda of the proposed heads of state meeting between the Russian, Indian, and Chinese (RIC) leaders that presidential aide Yury Ushakov said was discussed for early 2022 during President Putin’s latest video call with President Xi in December.
The RIC countries stood with in solidarity with Ethiopia at the United Nations in the face of the US-led West’s subversive attempts to weaponize international law against it. They’re strong economies in their own right, not to mention through their cooperation via BRICS and the SCO, the latter organization of which also has anti-terrorist and other security dimensions. These two multipolar platforms could potentially be used to extend economic, financial, humanitarian, and security cooperation to their Ethiopian partner to complement bilateral and trilateral efforts in this respect.
Russia’s increasingly strategic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could also lead to Moscow working more closely with Abu Dhabi on related rehabilitation matters with their shared partners in Addis Ababa. Observers shouldn’t forget that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ) played a crucial role in brokering peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018. He even awarded their leaders his country’s highest civil honor when they both visited the UAE that summer. Furthermore, Al Jazeera alleges that the UAE has maintained a humanitarian (and possibly even military) air bridge to Ethiopia.
Regardless of whether or not the military aspect of this reported bridge is true or not, there’s no denying that the UAE has emerged as a major stakeholder in Ethiopia’s success. It deposited $1 billion in Ethiopia’s central bank in summer 2018 as part of its $3 billion aid and investment pledge at the time. The UAE also plans to build an Eritrean-Ethiopian oil pipeline in order to help the latter export its newly tapped reserves in the southeast. Additionally, DP World signed a memorandum with Ethiopia in May 2021 to build a $1 billion trade and logistics corridor to separatist Somaliland’s Berbera port.
Considering the closeness of Emirati-Ethiopian relations, it would therefore be fitting for RIC to incorporate the UAE as an equal partner into any potential multilateral plan that those countries might come up with during their proposed heads of state summit sometime in early 2022. It enjoys excellent relations with all three of them so it’s a perfect fit for complementing their shared efforts. Plus, the UAE has the available capital needed to invest in high-quality, long-term, but sometimes very expensive infrastructure projects, which can ensure northern Ethiopia’s sustainable rehabilitation.
It’s pivotal for Russia to prioritize its pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopia ahead of the second triennial Russia-Africa Summit that’s expected to take place in October or November after fall 2019’s first-ever summit saw Russia return to Africa following a nearly three-decade-long hiatus. Coincidentally, Ethiopia requested last April to hold the next event in Addis Ababa. That would be a sensible choice since its capital city hosts the African Union headquarters, has sufficient infrastructure, and can serve most of the continent through its Ethiopian Airlines, which regularly wins awards as Africa’s best airline.
The interest that Ethiopian Ambassador to Russia Alemayehu Tegunu recently expressed in courting more Russian investment ahead of the next summit goes perfectly well with Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Terekhin’s vow to heighten cooperation between those countries’ ruling parties. This in turn raises the chances that the present piece’s proposals could hopefully serve as the blueprint for beginning relevant discussions as soon as possible on Russia’s pledged rehabilitation of Ethiopia with a view towards achieving tangible successes ahead of the next Russia-Africa Summit.
That timing is so important since Russia mustn’t miss the opportunity to showcase its bespoke “Democratic Security” model in Ethiopia. This emerging concept refers to the comprehensive thwarting of Hybrid War threats through economic, informational, military, and other tactics and strategies such as the action plan that was proposed in the present piece. “Democratic Security” approaches vary by country as evidenced from the differing ones that Russia’s practicing in Syria and the CAR, but the concept could attract many more African partners if it’s successful in Ethiopia by next fall’s summit.
Russia must therefore do everything in its power to bring this best-case scenario about. Rehabilitating Ethiopia won’t just improve millions of lives, expose the war crimes committed by the US-led West’s TPLF proxies, and enable Russia to showcase its “Democratic Security” model to other African countries, but ensure that the continent’s historical fountainhead of anti-imperialism and pan-Africanism survives its existential struggle. Upon that happening, Ethiopia can then serve to inspire a revival of these ideas all across Africa through its complementary Medemer concept and thus strengthen multipolarity.
From our partner RIAC
Decade of Sahel conflict leaves 2.5 million people displaced
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) called on Friday for concerted international action to end armed conflict in Africa’s central Sahel region, which has forced more than 2.5 million people to flee their homes in the last decade.
Speaking to journalists in Geneva, the agency’s spokesperson, Boris Cheshirkov, informed that internal displacement has increased tenfold since 2013, going from 217,000 to a staggering 2.1 million by late last year.
The number of refugees in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger now stands at 410,000, and the majority comes from Mali, where major civil conflict erupted in 2012, leading to a failed coup and an on-going extremist insurgency.
Increase in one year
Just last year, a surge in violent attacks across the region displaced nearly 500,000 people (figures for December still pending).
According to estimates from UN partners, armed groups carried out more than 800 deadly attacks in 2021.
This violence uprooted some 450,000 people within their countries and forced a further 36,000 to flee into a neighbouring country.
In Burkina Faso alone, the total number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) rose to more than 1.5 million by the end of the year. Six in ten of the Sahel’s displaced are now from this country.
In Niger, the number of IDPs in the regions of Tillabéri and Tahoua has increased by 53 per cent in the last 12 months. In Mali, more than 400,000 people are displaced internally, representing a 30 per cent increase from the previous year.
Climate, humanitarian crisis
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating with crises on multiple fronts.
Insecurity is the main driver, made worse by extreme poverty, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The effects of the climate crisis are also felt more strongly in the region, with temperatures rising 1.5 times faster than the global average.
Women and children are often the worst affected and disproportionately exposed to extreme vulnerability and the threat of gender-based violence.
According to the UNHCR spokesperson, “host communities have continued to show resilience and solidarity in welcoming displaced families, despite their own scant resources.”
He also said that Government authorities have demonstrated “unwavering commitment” to assisting the displaced, but they are now “buckling under increasing pressure.”
UNHCR and humanitarian partners face mounting challenges to deliver assistance, and continue to be the target of road attacks, ambushes, and carjacking.
In this context, the agency is calling on the international community to take “bold action and spare no effort” in supporting these countries.
UNHCR is also leading the joint efforts of UN agencies and NGOs to provide emergency shelter, manage displacement sites and deliver vital protection services, including combating gender-based violence and improving access to civil documentation.
In 2021, more than a third of the agency’s Central Sahel funding needs were unmet.
This year, to mount an effective response in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, the agency needs $307 million.
SADC extends its joint military mission in Mozambique
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has collectively decided to extend its force mission mandate in Mozambique for three months to provide military support in fighting terrorism in Cabo Delgado, the northern seaside provincial district that suffered frequent militant attacks displacing thousands out of their homes.
The South African Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), according to the final communiqué released after the leaders of the southern African countries gathered to review significant issues, among them the operations of the joint military force dispatched last year as attacks reached its greater heights to Mozambique.
Chairperson of the SADC’s Organ on Politics, Defense and Security and South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa told the gathering in Lilongwe, capital of Malawi, where the regional bloc held its extraordinary summit and reviewed progress in Mozambique, described SAMIM as highly successful in defeating the militant groups particularly in Cabo Delgado.
“I would like to express my appreciation and commend SAMIM for its work on the ground, as well as recognize the member states that have supported this work financially and in the deployment of military personnel and equipment,” the final report quoted Ramaphosa.
SADC cannot allow terrorism to spread to other provinces in Mozambique and to the region, and it is imperative to promote a spirit of unity among member countries as terrorism and violent extremism threaten the stability and development that the region has achieved over the past four decades, says the report.
The communiqué also approved the framework for support to Mozambique in addressing terrorism outlines, among others, comprehensive strategic actions for consolidating peace, security, and the socio-economic recovery of Cabo Delgado.
The Maputo daily Noticias wrote after the SADC summit that a budgetary allocation of US$29.5 million has been set aside for the three-month extension, after several years of high-level consultations and this would mean until at least mid-April. The SAMIM extension set from mid-January.
Addressing the opening session of the summit, the current SADC Chairperson, Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera, urged regional bloc member states to stick together and ensure that SAMIM remains multidimensional and comprehensive. He entreated SADC member countries not to relent, regress or even retreat on their commitments.
“What remains now is for us to stay the course and stick together. We cannot relent. We cannot regress. We cannot retreat. Our approach to this mission must continue to be multidimensional and comprehensive. It must not only focus on neutralizing the threat, but also have post-conflict plans to rebuild,” said Chakwera, added that the collective mission is paramount and the stakes for all the Member States are high because what they are fighting for is regional stability, and the sustainability of the quest for the bloc’s integration and socio-economic development.
Chakwera welcomed the comprehensive Cabo Delgado Reconstruction Plan launched by his Mozambican counterpart, Filipe Nyusi, and his government, which, among other issues, seeks to provide humanitarian support to the affected population, including internally displaced persons, and uplift their living standards.
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi however expressed high optimism about the current military situation in Cabo Delgado. He said that all the bases from which the terrorists used to plan their actions are now in the hands of the Mozambican forces, and 2022 would be a decisive year to support the regional standby force in the final fight against terrorism in Mozambique.
For the Mozambican President Nyusi the extension of the SAMIM mission demonstrates the spirit of unity and solidarity that the Southern African Development Community members have readily and warmheartedly shown with the people of Mozambique.
Mozambique has grappled with an insurgency in its northernmost province of Cabo Delgado since 2017, but currently fast improving after the deployment of joint military force with the primary responsibility of ensuring peace and stability, and for restoring normalcy in Mozambique.
Mozambique has consistently maintained that all problems especially relating to conflicts and crises should be resolved largely based on the approaches of Africans, and of course with moral, political and material support from regional blocs such as SADC and the continental organization – African Union, and the involvement of United Nations with its UN Security Council.
With an approximate population of 30 million, Mozambique is endowed with rich and extensive natural resources but remains one of the poorest and most underdeveloped countries in the world. Mozambique is a member of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC).
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