A new World Bank report evaluates how well developing-country governments fare in setting the regulatory stage to prepare, procure, and manage large infrastructure projects. It finds that—while many countries have made progress towards better regulatory quality that helps ensure infrastructure projects deliver good services at a reasonable cost—practices still lag behind in many countries. By providing actionable indicators and a country-by-country assessment, the report supports evidence-based reforms to improve enabling environments for quality infrastructure projects.
Building on previous reports in the series, Benchmarking Infrastructure Development 2020 assesses public-private partnership (PPP) regulatory frameworks in 140 economies, expanding coverage to include a pilot assessment of 40 economies’ use of traditional public investment for infrastructure development.
Appropriate, effective regulatory frameworks and institutional capacity are crucial for ensuring that investments in infrastructure are carried out strategically and efficiently. A supportive regulatory framework also reduces the costs and risks of carrying out individual projects, which provides the private sector with a more predictable and safe environment to invest. This is particularly important as all hands on deck—public and private—are needed to fill the acute infrastructure financing gap faced by most developing countries and as countries will seek to rebuild better after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Yet, despite the need to mobilize all kinds of finance to meet people’s needs for basic infrastructure services, the report notes that most developing countries still rely primarily on traditional procurement methods and are not sufficiently adopting more innovative ones, such as competitive dialogue, that could better fit the features of a PPP. The World Bank emphasizes that, while traditional public investment plays an important, dominant role in infrastructure investment, governments around the world should consider PPPs when suitable to bring increased resources and expertise to bear in ensuring broad access to infrastructure services.
As the COVID-19 pandemic affects the delivery and use of infrastructure worldwide, Imad Fakhoury, Global Director for Infrastructure Finance, PPPs & Guarantees at the World Bank, makes an important link to the report: “The key finding is unsurprising: there’s more room for regulatory improvement in both PPPs and traditional public investments. While many countries have recently reformed their regulatory framework, we still need significantly more progress.” Fakhoury adds, “With governments facing severely reduced fiscal space, this point is timely—as the experience of past crises shows that many will use infrastructure spending as an economic stimulus measure in COVID-19’s wake. This investment—in addition to bringing economic growth—must be more transparent and target key areas of sustainability in terms of social benefits and inclusion, including gender, job creation, as well as climate and environment. The global pandemic shines a spotlight on the need for a new generation of investments that gets countries closer to achieving their development goals efficiently, without wasting resources.”
Indeed, many regulatory aspects directly affect the ability of governments to respond to crises like pandemics, including the adoption of international good practices with respect to modifications and renegotiations of contracts to avoid opportunistic behaviors, regulation of specific circumstances like force majeure clauses, dispute resolution mechanisms, addressing grounds and consequences of contract termination, and the use of modern monitoring systems for tracking progress and addressing concerns. Moreover, properly regulating other aspects of the infrastructure project cycle—such as planning, prioritization and budgeting; adequate social and environmental impact assessments; and appropriate value-for-money evaluations of procurement modality options—will also support the good use of resources to foster sustainable infrastructure during any recovery phase.
Some of the report’s most interesting findings include:
- Less than 25% of countries assessed require a procurement strategy; only 4% require market sounding.
- International good practices for project preparation seem to be followed even when not regulated.
- Low-income economies see the largest gap between legal and practice scores in the procurement phase, indicating they face major challenges in implementing regulatory requirements.
- A total of 14 international good practices in contract management are adopted by more than half of economies surveyed; still disclosure of performance information is rare.
Further details, methodological information, and the complete dataset is available online at the project’s website: http://bpp.worldbank.org.
The World Bank Group, one of the largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries, is taking broad, fast action to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response. It is supporting public health interventions, working to ensure the flow of critical supplies and equipment, and helping the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. The WBG is making available up to $160 billion over a 15-month period ending June 2021 to help more than 100 countries protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery. This includes $50 billion of new IDA resources through grants and highly concessional loans and $12 billion for developing countries to finance the purchase and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
‘Industry 4.0’ tech for post-COVID world, is driving inequality
Developing countries must embrace ground-breaking technologies that have been a critical tool in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, or else face even greater inequalities than before, UN economic development experts at UNCTAD said on Thursday.
“Very few countries create the technologies that drive this revolution – most of them are created in China and the US – but all countries will be affected by it”, said UNCTAD’s Shamika Sirimanne, head of Division on Technology and Logistics. “Almost none of the developing countries we studied is prepared for the consequences.”
The appeal, which is highlighted in a new UNCTAD report, relates to all things digital and connective, so-called “Industry 4.0” or “frontier technologies”, that include artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, 5G, 3D printing, robotics, drones, nanotechnology and solar energy.
Gene editing, another fast-evolving sector, has demonstrated its worth in the last year, with the accelerated development of new coronavirus vaccines.
In developing countries, digital tools can be used to monitor ground water contamination, deliver medical supplies to remote communities via drones, or track diseases using big data, said UNCTAD’s Sirimanne.
But “most of these examples remain at pilot level, without ever being scaled-up to reach those most in need: the poor. To be successful, technology deployment must fulfil the five As: availability, affordability, awareness, accessibility, and the ability for effective use.”
Income gap widening
With an estimated market value of $350 billion today, the array of emerging digital solutions for life after COVID is likely to be worth over $3 trillion by 2025 – hence the need for developing countries to invest in training and infrastructure to be part of it, Sirimanne maintained.
“Most Industry 4.0 technologies that are being deployed in developed countries save labour in routine tasks affecting mid-level skill jobs. They reward digital skills and capital”, she said, pointing to the significant increase in the market value of the world’s leading digital platforms during the pandemic.
“The largest gains have been made by Amazon, Apple and Tencent,” Sirimanne continued. “This is not surprising given that a very small number of very large firms provided most of the digital solutions that we have used to cope with various lockdowns and travel restrictions.”
Expressing optimism about the potential for developing countries to be carried along with the new wave of digitalisation rather than be swamped by it, the UNCTAD economist downplayed concerns that increasing workforce automation risked putting people in poorer countries out of a job.
This is because “not all tasks in a job are automated, and, most importantly, that new products, tasks, professions, and economic activities are created throughout the economy”, Sirimanne said.
“The low wages …for skills in developing countries plus the demographic trends will not create economic incentives to replace labour in manufacturing – not yet.”
According to UNCTAD, over the past two decades, the expansion in high and low-wage jobs – a phenomenon known as “job polarization” – has led to only a single-digit reduction in medium-skilled jobs in developed and developing countries (of four and six per cent respectively).
“So, it is expected that low and lower-middle income developing countries will be less exposed to potential negative effects of AI and robots on job polarization”, Sirimanne explained.
Nonetheless, the UN trade and development body cautioned that there appeared to be little sign of galloping inequality slowing down in the new digital age, pointing to data indicating that the income gap between developed and developing countries is $40,749 in real terms today, up from $17,000 in 1970.
Greater Innovation Critical to Driving Sustained Economic Recovery in East Asia
Innovation is critical to productivity growth and economic progress in developing East Asia in a rapidly changing world, according to a new World Bank report launched today.
Countries in developing East Asia have an impressive record of sustained growth and poverty reduction. But slowing productivity growth, uncertainties in global trade, and technological advances are increasing the need to transition to new and better modes of production to sustain economic performance.
To support policy makers in meeting this challenge, The Innovation Imperative for Developing East Asia examines the state of innovation in the region, analyzes the key constraints firms face in innovating, and lays out an agenda for action to spur innovation-led growth.
“A large body of evidence links innovation to higher productivity,” said Victoria Kwakwa, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific. “The COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, along with the fast-evolving global environment, have raised urgency for governments in the region to promote greater innovation through better policies.”
While developing East Asia is home to several high-profile innovators, data presented in the report show that most countries in the region (except China) innovate less than would be expected given their per capita income levels. Most firms operate far from the technological frontier. And the region is falling behind the advanced economies in the breadth and intensity of new technology use.
“Aside from some noteworthy examples, the vast majority of firms in developing East Asia are currently not innovating,” said Xavier Cirera, a lead author of the report. “A broad-based model of innovation is thus needed – that supports a large mass of firms in adopting new technologies, while also enabling more-sophisticated firms to undertake projects at the cutting edge.”
The report identifies several factors that impede innovation in the region, including inadequate information on new technologies, uncertainty about returns to innovation projects, weak firm capabilities, insufficient staff skills, and limited financing options. Moreover, countries’ innovation policies and institutions are often not aligned with firms’ capabilities and needs.
To spur innovation, the report argues that countries need to reorient policy to promote diffusion of existing technologies, not just invention; support innovation in the services sectors, not just manufacturing; and strengthen firms’ innovation capabilities. Taking this broader view of innovation policy will be critical to enabling productivity gains among a broader swath of firms in the region.
“It is important for governments in the region to support innovation in services, given their rising importance in these economies – not only for better service quality but increasingly as key inputs for manufacturing,” said Andrew Mason, also a lead author of the report.
Countries also need to strengthen key complementary factors for innovation, including workers’ skills and instruments to finance innovation projects. Building stronger links between national research institutions and firms will also be critical to fostering innovation-led growth in the region.
Sea transport is primary route for counterfeiters
More than half of the total value of counterfeit goods seized around the world are shipped by sea, according to a new OECD-EUIPO report.
Misuse of Containerized Maritime Shipping In the Global Trade of Counterfeits says that seaborne transport accounts for more than 80% of the volume of merchandise traded between countries, and more than 70% of the total value of trade.
Containerships carried 56% of the total value of seized counterfeits in 2016. The People’s Republic of China was the largest provenance economy for container shipments, making up 79% of the total value of maritime containers containing fakes and seized worldwide. India, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are also among the top provenance economies for counterfeit and pirated goods traded worldwide.
Between 2014 and 2016, 82% of the seized value of counterfeit perfumes and cosmetics by customs authorities worldwide, 81% of the value of fake footwear and 73% of the value of customs seizures of fake foodstuff and toys and games concerned sea shipments. Additional analysis showed that over half of containers transported in 2016 by ships from economies known to be major sources of counterfeits entered the European Union through Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. There are also some EU countries, such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece and Romania, with relatively low volumes of containers trade in general, but with a high level of imports from counterfeiting-intense economies.
To combat illicit trade, a number of risk-assessment and targeting methods have been adapted for containerised shipping, in particular to enforce against illicit trade in narcotics and hazardous and prohibited goods. But the analysis reveals that the illicit trade in counterfeits has not been a high priority for enforcement, as shipments of counterfeits are commonly perceived as “commercial trade infractions” rather than criminal activity. Consequently, existing enforcement efforts may not be adequately tailored to respond to this risk, according to the report. Tailored and flexible governance solutions are required to strengthen risk-assessment and targeting methods against counterfeits.
As well as infringing trademarks and copyright, counterfeit and pirated goods entail health and safety risks, product malfunctions and loss of income for companies and governments. Earlier OECD-EUIPO work has shown that imports of counterfeit and pirated goods amounted to up to USD 509 billion in 2016, or around 3.3% of global trade.
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