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How Prime Minister Abiy looking to change Ethiopia

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Reportedly, while speaking with Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump suggested Egypt could bomb the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The comment comes several months after President Trump ordered the State Department to cut around $100 million of US military aid to Ethiopia. Such attitudes will harm US interests in the region.

Over the last few months, Prime minister Abiy has faced several challenges that could have undermined his reputation and weakened Ethiopia. However, he has shown good acumen in navigating these issues, and in doing, so he has strengthened not only his position but that of Ethiopia. This does not mean that he has not been without criticism, as one can always do better.

Challenge One: The Tigray Regional Authority Elections

On 9 September 2020, the Tigray Regional Authority defying the federal government held regional elections. The election could have undermined the Abiy government, which showed great skill in managing the situation. Prime Minister Abiy merely referred to them as ‘shanty elections’ treating them as illegal. Abiy opted not to send in the military to quash the election, the standard practice of authoritarian leaders. Since then, the federal government has relied on the power of the purse, cutting direct dies with the newly elected government, and working directly with local institutions. Such a response ensured there were no casualties or international opprobrium, although arguably the federal government is merely postponing a potential conflict with the Tigray Regional Authority, as seen with Abiy’s decision to send the military into the province.

Sino-Ethiopian relations

Addis Ababa’s relations with Beijing are at an all-time high.

In 2017, Ethiopia and China elevated their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation. The change is indicative of Beijing’s commitment to ensure Ethiopia remains friendly and open to them. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Report 2020 makes it clear that China is the largest foreign direct investment source in Ethiopia in 2019, accounting for about 60% of the newly approved foreign projects in Ethiopia. Chinese lenders supported the construction of the Dire Dawa Industrial Park in Somali State. It is believed that the Park could generate 20,000 jobs, in addition to the current 1000 jobs. Linked to the Industrial Park is a massive road construction initiative, aimed at connecting communities, and in doing so unite the country.

Beijing has provided Ethiopia with great support to address the Covid-19 pandemic and the locust infestation. Beijing and Jack Ma’s Alibaba Foundation supported the building of a Covid-19 testing factory, enabling Ethiopia to produce testing kits. Beijing has also provided much needed medical assistance and expertise in dealing with the pandemic. In response to the locust infestation, Beijing sent 72 tons of pesticides, 2,000 hand-held sprayers, and 20,000 personal protective gear. Such measures underlie China’s commitment to using soft power diplomacy to win allies in Ethiopia.

One suspects the Abiy government is confident it could secure lines of credit from China and Chinese lenders. Lines of credit and investment are crucial for Abiy if he is to continue with his commitment to ‘open’ up – privatize/de-nationalise – the economy, which is why the UNCTAD’s Investment Trends Monitor Report issued in October 2020 provided good news for Abiy, as it showed that whereas Foreign Direct Investment in sub-Saharan Africa was down 21 percent, Ethiopia drew in$1.1 billion in Foreign Direct Investment inflows during the first half of 2020, with China being a key lender, funding around a quarter of all newly approved projects.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Despite the kerfuffle with the US decision to reduce its military aid to Ethiopia in lieu of the deadlock over the GERD with Egypt, the federal government is secure. The decision not to make much of the reduction in military aid because it meant little in the grand scheme of things further empowered the Abiy government. Had it returned to the negotiation table because of the reduction in aid it would have been kowtowing to US pressure.

Things could still go wrong

In the immediate period, one major threat to stability is the locust infestation. The Food and Agriculture Organization has described the latest invasion as the worse in 25 years, with locust swarms destroying over 200,000 hectares (490,000 acres). Consequently, there are serious concerns about food production.

Concern over food security remains high because some models including one by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre, suggest Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are also heading towards dry conditions between October and December. The models supported by Earth Observations suggest there is a particularly good chance of another poor rainy season from March to May 2021.

The Tigray Regional Authority election did not spark ethnic conflict. Nevertheless, threats of ethnic divisions remain as seen with events in the Afar Province but also in Western Ethiopia, in Wollega. There are lots of small disputes, with little evidence that Abiy is taking an active measure to address them.

One of the biggest challenges for Abiy is the state of the economy. Abiy rode to power intending to massively reform the economy, opening it up to foreign and domestic investors. Ethiopia has a national debt of $28 billion, of which $12 billion is owed to China and Chinese companies and agencies. The debt has come in part because of attempts to reform the economy; in 2014 in the hope of raising a billion dollars to finance electricity, railway, and sugar industry projects, Ethiopia issued an international bond. The ten-year bond has than six percent interest rates.

Ethiopia’s economy is still operating under the rules of a planned economy, which is why Abiy is committed to reform it. Ethiopia’s telecommunication sector serves as a good example of a sector that needs drastic change. Abiy has sought to open up the sector, and it is expected that within the new few weeks, the Ethiopian Telecommunication Agency would announce which of the twelve official bidders would receive a license to operate elements of the sector.

The challenge is that EthioTelecom carries substantial debt much of which is owed to the Export-Import (EXIM) Bank of China and China Development Bank. The terms of the loan were harsh, as the government focused on the financing. Ultimately, ZTE and later Huawei were able to offer the support, which companies such as Ericsson and Alcatel Lucent SA, could not match because the Chinese could rely on state support. Putting the debt issue aside, it also means the telecommunication sector is dependent on Chinese equipment and expertise.

In sum

Prime Minister Abiy’s greatest challenge is the prospect of an economic slowdown. The Ethiopian economy is fragile, and so is food security, with the World Development Indicators notingthat Ethiopia’s poorest 20% subsist on around $250 a year. Nevertheless, there seems to be optimism within the government because

  • There are no serious internal or external threats. Abiy’s decision to improve relations with Eritrea has paid enormous dividends.
  • The public generally does not blame it for massive failure in dealing with the pandemic
  • There is tremendous nationalist energy surrounding the GERD and hope it would help solve the currency and energy problem
  • Abiy remains popular on the international scene, and more countries are turning their attention to Ethiopia.

Overall, there is momentum for change in Ethiopia, which is why the US should seek to work closely with Addis Ababa as the country would only become stronger over time.

Isaac Kfir, Independent consultant, Advisory Board, International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law and Adjunct Professor, Charles Sturt University

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Africa

A Fault Line Named Farmajo

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Somalia, a country of many political fault lines that indicate looming earthquakes of great magnitude, now has a new one- the Farmajo fault. Mohmed Abdullahi Farmajo is the malignantly polarizing president of Somalia.

Two of the Farmajo fault’s severe foreshocks or preliminary shakers have occurred on Thursday 18 February and Friday 19 February. In the first one, government troops have attacked two former presidents and current candidates at a hotel where they were organizing to lead a peaceful march against Farmajo’s illegally delayed election the next day.

The second one occurred on Friday when the government fired indiscriminately at a peacefully marching citizens led by Farmajo’s former prime minister, former ministers and a few other candidates. An estimate of twenty people was reported dead or seriously injured

That was the most callous act that any leader or ruler could have ordered at a time of high political volatility. It is the opinion of this author that that has ended Farmajo’s political future. He severely wounded himself in his first reckless attack and committed suicide in his second.

Nature of the Violation

According to Article 19 of the U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights:  

Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.

And, according to Article 20:

(1)   Everyone has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and association

(2)   No one may be compelled to belong to an association.

These universal rights coupled with the freedoms expressed in Somalia’s provisional constitution, affirm that those whose Friday march was violently aborted had the right to protest and chant ‘Doorasho diid dooni meyno!’ which means we don’t want election refuser. No one should be bullied, violently attacked, injured, or killed for their verbal expressions of discontent.      

What was witnessed in Mogadishu in that bloody protest was something not seen in a number of decades. The protesters were not those often seen in the streets of Mogadishu- IDPs and other poor women draped in the Somali flags who are stationed in street corners, under the baking sun, to get paid a few dollars at the end of the day, and children shouting slogans that they do not understand.

Any government that resorts to violence in order to silence its opposition, activists, or dissidents inevitably loses its legitimacy. So more often than not, such government’s days become numbered.

Anyone who has been following my commentaries on Somalia knows that I neither support nor think the opposition (any one of the 14 presidential candidates) could help save this nation that is sinking deeply into quicksand of distrust, for that requires more than election. Yet, I—like many others who have no horse in this bloody race—am committed to defend their right to publicly and privately express their political views. 

 Spin Doctors of Halane

The aforementioned Friday violence occurred within a walking distance from Halane (Somalia’s Green Zone) and key actors in that compound were well aware, at least for a few days before the event, that an anti-Farmajo protest would led by a coalition of presidential candidates who felt scorned and disenfranchised by the ‘Madaxweynaha uu xiligiisu dhamaaday’ or the President whose term has ended.

In reaction, the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) @UNSOM offered this solution “The UN in #Somalia notes that the clashes in #Mogadishu underscore the urgent need for Federal Government and Federal Member State leaders to come together to reach political agreement on the implementation of the 17 September electoral model.”

The U.S. Embassy in Somalia followed with a paraphrased version of the same statement from another planet. ” We urge an end to all violence and remind all parties of their commitment to immediately conclude an FGS-FMS agreement on #election implementation.”

Interestingly, the referenced ‘electoral model’ is at the heart of the presidential candidates’ grievance. They were denied to be part of it. These statements on behalf of the U.N. and U.S. were adding insult to an injury. As a result, the coalition of presidential candidates reasserted their position of not considering Farmajo as a legal president and that they would continue protesting until he comes back to his senses.

In solidarity with the disenfranchised presidential candidates, both the leader of Puntland federal-state and Jubbaland federal-state (who were at odds with Farmajo for long) have declared said agreement null and void. The 19 February bloody event has killed 17 September agreement.

In a no hold barred televised speech, President Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland said “We are not going to a conference with Farmajo…” He described Farmajo as a “dictator” who has been dividing the country, and warned against regression into a renewed civil war.   

Recommendations

1)      Allow the candidates and all others who want to march to do so freely, and all domestic and foreign stakeholders should support their right to do so

2)      Farmajo must be pressured to step aside without being barred of participation in the election- a constitutional right that he cannot be denied

3)      The 2009 precedent should not be followed. When then controversial president, Abdullahi Yusuf, was pressured to step aside, his Prime Minister, Nur Adde, was asked to lead the country while a new government was being formed in Djibouti. Nur Adde was not seen as partisan as the current Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble, who recently declared to unilaterally conduct elections without Puntland and Jubbaland       

4)      Since no official in the Executive or the Lower and the Upper House branches has a mandate to lead the country while stakeholders are negotiating the right model of election and implementing it, the Speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi, should be entrusted with that responsibility for the following reasons:

a)      He is a tower of patriotism among the current politicians

b)      He is the oldest, most ethical, and indeed most credible member of the parliament

c)      He is the only leader who has been playing by the rules

d)      He is the only one who refrained from the cut-throat politics that kept all others in a state of hyper-paranoia

e)      He is one of the Senators who represent Somaliland in the clan-based federal system

f)       He represents one of the four ‘major clans’ in the so-called 4.5 system that never held the presidency, even transitionally

g)      Once a new parliament is elected and a new president is elected or selected, Speaker Hashi clears the way for that new president

The Farmajo fault should not be underestimated. His prolonged stay could wholly tribalize the issue and subsequently make matters worse. Though the clan rhetoric has not been absent, so far the dichotomous divide between the political elite is not fueled by clan politics. Certain foreign actors possess more political leverage than the clans.

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African problems require African solutions

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In order to strengthen political dialogue and promote economic relations, Professor Robert Dussey, Minister of Foreign Affairs, African Integration and Togolese Abroad, held diplomatic talks on February 16, 2021 with his Russian counterpart Minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg. According to reports, Professor Dussey’s visit was on the invitation by Moscow, and came on exactly one year after their last meeting February 15 in Munich.

After their closed-door discussion, Lavrov told the joint news conference that there is a mutual interest in intensifying and deepening the entire scope of bilateral ties, including trade, the economy and investment, and have agreed to look for specific opportunities for joint projects in areas such as energy, natural resources, infrastructure, transport, and agriculture.

Regarding issues on the African continent, Lavrov re-emphasized that African problems (of which there are many) require African solutions. “We strongly support the African Union, the G5 Sahel, and the sub-regional organizations in Africa, in their efforts to resolve numerous local conflicts and crises. We specifically focus on supporting the fight against terrorism, which poses a real threat, including for our friends in Togo and other coastal countries in the region of the Gulf of Guinea,” he said.

In fact and as always, Lavrov reiterated Russia’s commitment to continue to act actively in pursuing peace and, to this end, called for the peaceful settlement of all kinds of differences, and reaffirmed support for sustainable development there in Africa.

Regarding issues from the last summit held in Sochi, Lavrov stressed: “We are interested in developing the resolutions of the Russia-Africa summit. We spoke in detail about the implementation of these agreements. The coronavirus pandemic has required adjustments. Nevertheless, the results on implementing the Sochi agreements are obvious. This year we will actively continue these efforts.”

The Association for Economic Cooperation with the African States was created in Russia following the 2019 Sochi summit. It includes representatives from the related departments and major Russian companies. The Russia-Africa Partnership Forum, which is a political association, was created, its secretariat is located at the Russian Foreign Ministry. The primary tasks of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum includes preparation and organization of the next Russia-Africa summit scheduled for 2022. The venue to be chosen by African leaders.

“We are still slightly behind other states, but trade between Russia and the African countries has been growing quite rapidly lately. I think we will soon make up for the time we lost in the years when, at the dawn of the new Russian statehood, we were too busy to maintain proper ties with Africa. A very strong foundation was laid in Soviet times, though,” Lavrov said further at the news conference about the current situation with relations between Russia and Africa.

It has always been the wish of both Russia and Africa to have an excellent quality of cooperation and partnership relations between the two regions and to diversify and deepen them as best as possible in order to provide an appreciable geopolitical influence and strategic power balance in Africa.

Russia and Togo, as with many other African countries, have had long time-tested relations over the years. The most recent high-level meetings were between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe during sidelined bilateral meeting in October 2019, when Gnassingbe participated in the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi, and on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in July 2018.

With an estimated population of about 7.9 million, Togo is among the smallest countries in Africa. Its economy depends highly on agriculture. Togo pursues an active foreign policy and participates in many international organizations. Relations between Togo and neighboring states are generally good. It is particularly active in West African regional affairs and in the African Union.

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Russia offers 300 million doses of Sputnik V vaccine to Africa

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As African countries continue to experience increasing coronavirus infections, with the overall number of cases exceeding 3.79 million mid-February, Russia is stepping in to supply 300 million doses of Sputnik V vaccine through the African Union (AU). It an effort to assist to stop further spread of the pandemic on the continent.

An official release said that the Africa Vaccine Acquisition Task Team, set up by the African Union to acquire additional vaccine doses so that Africa can attain a target immunization of 60%, has received an offer of 300 million Sputnik V vaccines from the Russian Federation. This includes a financing package for any member states wishing to secure this vaccine.

Meanwhile, the Task Team advises that the 270 million doses previously secured from AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnsons were all taken up by the first allocation phase deadline through the African Medical Supplies Platform (AMSP). With these additional 300 million Sputnik V vaccines, AMSP accelerates online COVID-19 vaccines pre-orders for the 55 African Union member states.

The Sputnik V vaccine from the Russian Federation is now available on the AMSP for the consideration of our AU Member States, says Dr John Nkengasong, Director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). Bilateral and private sector partnerships such as these aid our efforts to bringing the COVID-19 pandemic to an end.

Nkengasong is worried that vaccine apartheid will have dire consequences for Africans in the near future. According to him, the continent needed to be taken along by the developed world as they vigorously roll out inoculation efforts. Africa’s rollout has been relatively slower with over a third of African countries yet to receive doses.

About Africa’s lack of vaccines, he said:“That is absolutely one of our greatest concerns, that the vaccine situation will continue to exacerbate the inequality gap that exists in the world especially the north – south divide. My greatest fear is that once the United States and Europe get the vaccine, they begin to impose the need to have vaccine certificate to travel and that is extremely complicated for Africans to travel across the world.”

Nkengasongadded:“Africa has to team up with development partners to achieve its 60% continent-wide vaccination in the next two years. I think that is why we should as a collective of the continent, and of course, in partnership with the developed world make sure that Africa has a timely access to vaccines to meet our vaccination targets.”

While details, including clinical and technical information, are now accessible on the Africa Medical Supplies Platform (AMSP), Sputnik V vaccines will be available for a period of 12 months commencing by May 2021.

The African Union member states that wish to secure funding should approach the African Export-Import Bank through their Central Banks, as has been the case with the other vaccines that have been on offer. The lender approved US$2 billion for participating suppliers, allowing the finalization of supply contracts.

According to the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Sputnik V is one of the world’s top three coronavirus vaccines in terms of the number of approvals issued by government regulators.

Sputnik V had been approved in Russia, Belarus, Argentina, Bolivia, Serbia, Algeria, Palestine, Venezuela, Paraguay, Turkmenistan, Hungary, UAE, Iran, Republic of Guinea, Tunisia, Armenia, Mexico, Nicaragua, Republika Srpska (entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina), Lebanon, Myanmar, Pakistan, Mongolia, Bahrain, Montenegro, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Gabon and San Marino.

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, has said that Sputnik V has a number of key advantages:

• Efficacy of Sputnik V is 91.6% as confirmed by the data published in the Lancet, one of the world’s oldest and most respected medical journals; It is one of only three vaccines in the world with efficacy of over 90%; Sputnik V provides full protection against severe cases of COVID-19.

• The Sputnik V vaccine is based on a proven and well-studied platform of human adenoviral vectors, which cause the common cold and have been around for thousands of years.

• Sputnik V uses two different vectors for the two shots in a course of vaccination, providing immunity with a longer duration than vaccines using the same delivery mechanism for both shots.

• The safety, efficacy and lack of negative long-term effects of adenoviral vaccines have been proven by more than 250 clinical studies over two decades.

• The developers of the Sputnik V vaccine are working collaboratively with AstraZeneca on a joint clinical trial to improve the efficacy of AstraZeneca vaccine.

• There are no strong allergies caused by Sputnik V.

• The price of Sputnik V is less than $10 per shot, making it affordable around the world.

Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) is Russia’s sovereign wealth fund established in 2011 to make equity co-investments, primarily in Russia, alongside reputable international financial and strategic investors. RDIF acts as a catalyst for direct investment in the Russian economy. RDIF’s management company is based in Moscow.

About the Afreximbank: The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is a Pan-African multilateral financial institution with the mandate of financing and promoting intra-and extra-African trade. Afreximbank was established in October 1993 and owned by African governments, the African Development Bank and other African multilateral financial institutions as well as African and non-African public and private investors. The Bank was established under two constitutive documents, an Agreement signed by member states, which confers on the Bank the status of an international organization, and a Charter signed by all Shareholders, which governs its corporate structure and operations.

About the Africa CDC: Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), is a specialized technical institution of the African Union that strengthens the capacity and capability of Africa’s public health institutions as well as partnerships to detect and respond quickly and effectively to disease threats and outbreaks, based on data-driven interventions and programmes.

About the AVATT: The African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT), was established by African Union Chair, President Cyril Ramaphosa, as a component in support of the Africa Vaccine Strategy that was endorsed by the AU Bureau of Heads of State and Government on 20th of August 2020. The AVATT is chaired by President Ramaphosa and includes African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa FakiMahamat, Dr. Zweli Lawrence Mkhize, Mr. Strive Masiyiwa, Dr. Donald Kaberuka, Professor Benedict Oramah, H.E. Amira Elfadil, Dr. John Nkengasong and others, as to be nominated by the Chair of the African Union and the Chairperson of the Commission.

About the AMSP: The Africa Medical Supplies Platform (AMSP) is a non-profit initiative launched by the African Union as an immediate, integrated and practical response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The online platform was developed under the leadership of the African Union Special Envoy, Strive Masiyiwa and powered by Janngo on behalf of the African Union’s Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and in partnership with African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) with the support of leading African and international Institutions, Foundations and Corporations as well as Governments of China, Canada and France.

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