With the recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to New Delhi, the already uncomfortable India-China relations have taken on a new dimension. Though Pompeo’s visit is a matter of bilateral diplomacy, China has a variety of concerns. With Pompeo’s visit to India and from there to Sri Lanka and Maldives strengthens the Chinese worry over the formation of a U.S. Camp in Asia-Pacific. But, to what extent Pompeo’s visit, especially when the election trumpet and the results are sounding in the U.S., can change the political order in Asia-pacific? Pompeo’s visit, it seems, shows the United Sates’ political gimmick to strengthen its dismaying influence in the Asia Pacific, which is not very easy to reinstate in contemporary times.
In the recent past, India and the United States have flourished into a strategic friendship, especially with the rise to power of Trump-Modi administrations. But this friendship never grew to a new power bloc in the India-pacific region yet. Though India was leaning towards a pro-US policy for the last three decades, these friendly ties never fully developed to create a partnership between the U.S. and India. Washington’s earlier sympathetic attitude towards Pakistan, as reflected in the Kashmir issue, and the undue influence of post-Soviet foreign concerns restricted India from producing a comprehensive bilateral partnership with the U.S. This is what Pompeo wants to rewrite when he says at a 2+2 ministerial dialogue along with Secretary of Defence Mark Esper, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, that ‘the U.S. will stand with the people of India as they face threats to their sovereignty and their liberty’
On the contrary, two things bring India closer to the United States. More than ever, India recognizes that the challenges posed by China over the past seventy years are becoming more alarming. Let us not forget the quick but obtrusive Chinese reaction to the annulment of Article 370 in September 2019. China reacted that the repeal of Article 370, guaranteeing privileges to Jammu and Kashmir, is illegal and invalid. Similarly, neither Pakistan nor China was happy that India amended its citizenship provisions in December 2019.
With the ongoing standoff at Galwan, India recognizes that Chinese strategy is not to engage in direct full-time war. Instead, China opts for long-term provocations, and hybrid conflicts to keep India tensed. To respond to these new challenges, India is interested in shifting towards new strategies and global connections. India is not afraid of Pakistan, either militarily or otherwise, but Chinese aggression disguised as Pakistani, Sri Lankan or Nepalese provocation worries India. Besides, India is also worried about the existing strategic ties that China established with Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka.
Therefore, India is concerned about stopping the Chinese wings across entire Asia-pacific. As India’s friendly ties with other south Asian and south east-Asian countries is deteriorating day by day, India needs to establish new strategic partnerships. This position pushes India towards new friends such as the United States, Japan, and Israel to forge diplomatic alliances and political bonds.
Indeed, Chinese intrusion in Galwn Valley, Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh is part of the Chinese response to India’s changing political conditions. What is happening in the Galwan Valley is nothing but ‘Chinese test dose’ to ascertain whether it can frighten India by creating hybrid situations. However, China is upset that India is resisting such attempts with international cooperation and that the international community stands with India.
In this situation, China fears India, that with a population of 130 billion people and more concrete forms of democracy, India can overrule the Chinese influence in Asia-pacific. Quite unsurprisingly, the recent development of the India-U.S. bilateral alliance, therefore, irritates china. As far as the U.S. is concerned, India is a loyal partner in maintaining the balance of power in Asia-pacific and, as Mike Pompeo said, India also views that China’s interests are creating international distresses. In this context, it is mutual that the United States longs for India’s friendship, and India seeks U.S. assistance, especially when dealing with China.
China views Indo–U.S relation as a threat to its supremacy and a pro-India plan with inputs from the U.S. This is why China responded with sporadic but, somber comments hours after Mike Pompeo’s statement that he is “repeating old lies” and “violating the norms of international relations”. Additionally, for his comments in New Delhi, China responded by saying that “the boundary question is a bilateral matter between China and India” and “there is no space for a third party to intervene.”
For China, the major worry is not only in the enhanced military superiority of India- U.S. alliance but the ideological threat such a partnership can pose to the Chinese global empire. As noted, China is trying hard to deal with the internal movements for democracy and against human rights violation. Consequently, China fears that the reflection of the friendship between India and the U.S. will affect its inner balance, apart from the global empire.
Consequently, Pompeo’s visit to Sri Lanka and the Maldives from India sends critical political messages to China. United States’ intention to cooperate with Sri Lanka to counter-terrorism and post-pandemic economic recovery, along with the decision to open a U.S. Embassy at the Maldives, show the growing U.S. interests in Asia-pacific politics. China is concerned about U.S. efforts to forge new political equations, as well as India’s preparedness to stand by the U.S. side. However, to what extent these visit can produce a pro-U.S Asia-pacific world view and India-U.S. partnership depends mainly on U.S election results. If Joe Biden is fated to be the upcoming President of the United States, we can soon hear the funeral anthem of Trumpian power relations in the Asia-Pacific.
