During the 2020 US pre-election period the Greek media and analysts have been suggesting that if Joe Biden wins, he will safeguard Greek interests from Turkey’s expansionist ambitions. They base their arguments on sporadic Biden’s comments, where he uses strong language to condemn Turkish actions on the Eastern Mediterranean.
Recently, Biden’s campaign went as far as to release a statement about the democratic candidate’s “vision for US-Greece relations”.
Although it is admirable that the Greek geopolitical anxieties have become one of the issues of this year US election, this is because the candidates want to secure the vote and the financial support of the large community of Greek-Americans and not because they suddenly value more the alliance with Greece than they used to.
Moreover if we look closely on Biden’s promises for US-Greece relations, all of them are either vague or have always been part of US foreign policy efforts, for example he promises to “advance stability on the Eastern Mediterranean”.
On the other hand, there is no ambiguity regarding Biden’s stance on Russia. Cornering Moscow is the main objective of his foreign policy plan.
Recently Joe Biden called Russia the “biggest threat for America’s security” a comment that provoked a response from the Kremlin. He has also repeatedly criticized President Trump for his moderate stance on Belarus and on the Navalny case and he has vowed that if he gets elected will get rid of the “dictator Lukashenko”.
But Biden cannot corner Russia without Turkish support. Turkey is in fact the only US ally that has been effectively creating problems for Moscow in the Middle East, Africa and the Caucasus. Furthermore Ankara is keeping a hard stance on Crimea and recently signed a military cooperation agreement with Kiev.
Ιf Biden wins, Turkey sooner or later will become a cornerstone of the US foreign policy.
In order achieve his main geopolitical goal Biden will have to shift from his pre-election stance and support Turkey’s aspirations in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East in exchange for its support against Russia. Greece and other US allies (even Israel) may find themselves pressured from Washington to give in to Ankara’s demands.
Contrarily, President Trump sees China and not Russia as the main adversary of the US. That means that he will probably keep his foreign policy focused on East Asia. But even if Trump wins, Washington will continue to see Ankara as a difficult but vital ally who can actively safeguard American interests on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East against Russian influence.
In recent years Ankara’s role has been significantly upgraded on the US geopolitical chessboard because of its ability to use military force effectively on several fronts. This is something that Greece will have to take into careful consideration.
