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IMF: ‘Less severe’ but ‘still deep’ recession predicted

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In the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic and its continuing impact, the global economy could see a “somewhat less severe, though still deep” recession through 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected in its latest global economic outlook. 

The revision is driven by better-than-anticipated second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) in large advanced economies, the IMF reported on Monday, noting also stronger than expected growth in China and signs of a more rapid recovery in the third quarter. 

“Out-turns would have been much weaker if it weren’t for sizable, swift, and unprecedented fiscal, monetary, and regulatory responses that maintained disposable income for households, protected cash flow for firms, and supported credit provision”, Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at IMF, said in a foreword to the report. 

“Collectively these actions have so far prevented a recurrence of the financial catastrophe of 2008-09”, she added. 

Global growth forecast at -4.4% 

According to the report, with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening, and some are reinstating partial lockdowns. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels, remains strewn with obstacles. 

Global growth is now projected at -4.4 per cent in 2020, a less severe contraction than forecast in IMF’s June update.  

In 2021, global growth is projected at 5.2 per cent, a little lower than in the June update, reflecting the more moderate downturn projected for 2020. 

Following the contraction in 2020 and recovery in 2021, the level of global GDP in 2021 is expected to be a “modest” 0.6 per cent above that of 2019, said the report, adding that the growth projections imply wide negative output gaps and increasing job losses this year and in 2021, across both advanced and emerging economies. 

After 2021, global growth is expected to gradually slow to around 3.5 per cent into the medium term, implying only limited progress towards projected growth for 2020-25 projected before the pandemic. 

‘Unusually large’ uncertainty level 

The report notes that the uncertainty surrounding the baseline projection is “unusually large”. 

The forecast rests on public health and economic factors that are inherently difficult to predict, it adds, noting the unclear path of the pandemic, the needed public health response, and how countries react, most notably in contact-intensive sectors of the economy.  

Sources of uncertainty also include the extent of global spillovers from soft demand, weaker tourism, and lower remittances; and uncertainty surrounding the damage to supply potential – which will depend on the level of pandemic shock, the size and effectiveness of the policy response. 

Considering the severity of the recession and the possible withdrawal of emergency support measures and social protections in some countries, rising bankruptcies could compound job and income losses. In addition, fears over financial recovery could trigger a sudden stop in new lending to vulnerable economies.

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PM Kishida Outlines Vision for a New Form of Capitalism

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Image source: Wikipedia

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio called for a new form of liberal democratic capitalism, balancing economic growth and distribution, in a special address to business, government and civil society leaders taking part in the World Economic Forum’s virtual event, the Davos Agenda 2022.

“A key focus of my administration will be the revitalization of Japan through a new form a capitalism,” he said. Unfettered state capitalism without adequate checks and balances produces problems such as widening income gaps, rural-urban disparities and social tensions, he added.

Kishida emphasized that the time has come for “historic economic and social transformations”. He said Japan will pioneer a new form of public-private partnership, with leaders of government, industry and labour all working together to develop paradigm-shifting policies. “There has been an overreliance on competition and self-regulation to constrain the excesses of market forces,” he added. “This must change.”

These reforms will build on emerging strength shown by Japan’s economy. However, he reiterated that current policies are not sufficient to ensure that growth is sustainable and inclusive.

The prime minister called for Japan to lead the world in green transformation. He said investment in green technology “will be more than doubled” and become an engine of growth. He also announced that a carbon pricing system will be introduced as soon as possible and Japan will continue to support the Asian emissions trading market.

“Japan remains committed to the Paris Agreement and will achieve carbon neutrality by 2050,” he said. Private and public sector leadership will work tightly together on the demand and the supply side to support the transformation. One focus for Japan’s clean energy strategy is to reform the energy sector, which accounts for more than 80% of greenhouse gas emissions. Smart grids, upgraded power and distribution networks as well as low-carbon energy sources like solar and wind energy are all part of the solution, he said.

Another important pillar for Japan’s transformation is digitization. “While Japan has traditionally lagged in digital uptake, COVID-19 has given Japan a chance to leap-frog its digitization efforts,” Kishida said. To support this, the government will invest heavily in next-generation networks, optical fibre and 5G-related infrastructure – extending it to 90% of the population over two years.

Kishida also laid out plans for increased corporate disclosure to encourage investment in human capital. “Investment in people is often regarded as a cost, but it is a source of medium to long-term corporate value,” he said.

The prime minister pointed out that Japan continues to take a cautious approach to COVID-19, with borders closed until the end of February. “Changes will be made to border policies as more data comes in,” he said. The government is taking a realistic view and he stressed that a zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19 is neither possible nor appropriate.

Klaus Schwab, the World Economic Forum’s Founder and Executive Chairman, thanked Japan for taking an active part in collaborative global efforts to combat shared challenges. “The capabilities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution open up new possibilities and opportunities,” Schwab said. “The future will be much greener, more digital and human-centred.”

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China: $1.9 Trillion Boost and 88M Jobs by 2030 Possible with Nature-Positive Solutions

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Nearly $9 trillion, two-thirds of China’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is at risk of disruption from nature loss. Making China’s economy ‘nature-positive’ could generate $1.9 trillion in additional annual revenue and create 88 million jobs by 2030.

These are the findings of the latest report by the World Economic Forum Seizing Business Opportunities in China’s Transition Towards a Nature-positive Economy.

“Businesses can create a virtuous cycle between people, planet and profit. Investing in and living in harmony with nature will better secure sustained performance and prosperity. Chinese businesses can harness technologies and innovation, while adopting and promoting the UN Global Biodiversity Framework to collectively shape a more resilient and beautiful future for China,” said Gim Huay Neo, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.

The new report, in collaboration with Golden Bee, shows how significant business opportunities can be created if new business practices are adopted across three socio-economic systems: food, land and ocean use; infrastructure and the built environment; and energy and extractives. These systems are interconnected and can unlock untapped economic potential.

The report highlights progress to date, provides case studies and offers recommendations to accelerate new growth across these three systems.

– Food, land and ocean use: Six transitions can generate almost $565 billion in additional annual revenue and create 34 million new jobs by 2030. One of transitions identified would be – eco-tourism, projected to create some $53 billion of additional revenue in China – providing the largest business opportunity in accelerated ecosystem restoration and avoided land and ocean over-exploitation.

– Infrastructure and built environment: Five transitions to transform this system could add roughly $590 billion in annual revenue and create 30 million new jobs by 2030. An example of a key opportunity in this system’s transformation is promoting the use of smart parking – a market worth $94 billion in 2020 but expected to grow to around $219 billion by 2025.

– Energy and extractives: Four transitions could create almost $740 billion in additional revenue per year and 23 million new jobs by 2030. Improving how resources are used or reused throughout the vehicle lifecycle could create roughly $122 billion of commercial value and over 3.7 million jobs by 2030 in China.

“Nature is critical to China’s continued prosperity and social development. It is also at the heart of its ‘ecological civilization’ vision and intrinsically linked to its climate agenda. While our economy is currently facing non-negligible risk from nature loss, this report shows that taking bold action to ‘put nature first’ can secure our economic, social and climate ambitions while creating substantial business value.” said Justin Lin Yifu, Dean, Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University, Beijing.

The report also sets out how China is well-placed to lead the transition to a carbon-neutral and nature-positive economy by delivering its “ecological civilization” vision and implementing its new national biodiversity conservation strategy.

The potential gains for China in transforming its economy represent nearly 20% of global business opportunities and jobs creation. As the world enters a decisive decade for action on nature and climate, Chinese government and businesses need to work closely to raise global ambition on biodiversity commitments, drive policy and regulatory changes, lead technological innovations, and mobilize investment.

“China is uniquely positioned to lead a global movement towards a nature-positive, carbon-neutral future. As the president and host of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s COP 15, it provides leadership in setting forth an integrated agenda which builds societal, economic and ecological resilience.” said Elizabeth Mrema, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.

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Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5.5% in 2022

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Vietnam’s economic recovery is likely to accelerate in 2022 as GDP growth is expected to rise to 5.5% from 2.6% in the year just ended, the World Bank’s economic update for Vietnam Taking Stock says.

Assuming the COVID-19 pandemic will be brought under control at home and abroad, the forecast envisions that Vietnam’s services sector will gradually recover as consumer and investor confidence firms, while the manufacturing sector benefits from steady demand from the United States, the European Union, and China. The fiscal deficit and debt are expected to remain sustainable, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected at 58.8 percent, well below the statutory limit.

The outlook, however, is subject to serious downside risks, particularly the unknown course of the pandemic. Outbreaks of new variants may prompt renewed social distancing measures, dampening economic activity. Weaker-than-expected domestic demand in Vietnam could weigh on the recovery. In addition, many trading partners are facing dwindling fiscal and monetary space, potentially restricting their ability to further support their economies if the crisis persists, which in turn could slow the global recovery and weaken demand for Vietnamese exports.

Careful policy responses could mitigate these risks. Fiscal policy measures, including temporary reduction of VAT rates and more spending on health and education, could support aggregate domestic demand. Support for affected businesses and citizens could be more substantial and more narrowly targeted. Social protection programs could be more carefully targeted and efficiently implemented to address the severe and uneven social consequences of the crisis. Heightened risks in the financial sector should be closely monitored and addressed proactively.

Entitled “NO TIME TO WASTE: The Challenges and Opportunities of Cleaner Trade for Vietnam,” this edition of Taking Stock argues that greening the trade sector should be a priority. Trade, while an important driver of Vietnam’s remarkable economic growth over the past two decades, is carbon-intensive —accounting for one-third of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions — and polluting.

While Vietnam has started to decarbonize activity associated with trade, more needs to be done to respond to mounting pressures from main destination markets, customers, and multinational companies for greener products and services.

“Trade will be key component of Vietnam’s climate actions in the years to come,” said Carolyn Turk, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam. “Promoting greener trade will not only help Vietnam follow through on its pledge to reach net zero emission in 2050 but will also help it keep its competitive edge in international markets and ensure trade remains a critical income and job generator.

The report recommends the Government act on three fronts: facilitate the trade of green goods and services, incentivize green foreign direct investment, and develop more resilient and carbon-free industrial zones.

Taking Stock is the World Bank’s bi-annual economic report on Vietnam.

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