COVID-19, major shifts and the relevance of Kondratief 6th Wave


Covid-19 has changed the global strategic equations, it has impacted each part of human life so has it let us ponder upon the relevance of Kondratieff cycles, as with Covid-19 there has started a new debate about its sixth wave, which is about the importance of health sector, especially the biotechnology which is crucial for the progress of society in future.

The countries working on these sectors know that the most important engine for their economic and social development will be health in the 21st century. For instance, we have the USA that focused on these and now has created around 2/3rd of its jobs in health sectors alongside has invested about $3,500 billion on health sector back in 2017. Likewise, a 2008 report stated that around 4,700 companies all across worked in the field of biotechnology, whereby 42% were in North America, and 35% in Europe, which depicts these states long-term understanding of the emerging scenario as seen from the emergence of Coronavirus.

However, on the opposite side, if we look into the health structure of underdeveloped states, we can easily conclude that these states will suffer the most if a global health issue emerges, and in the contemporary world, it has emerged in the form of COVID-19.

Accordingly, COVID-19 though emerged in China but has not restricted itself to the boundaries of China and has impacted the whole world. This virus which event isn’t visible to us has dazed the entire structure, with huge cost for all states. No matter if it’s the USA that is the superpower or any small states, the pandemic has divulged not just the capability but also the integrity of all in their response to the Covid-19. With some having the capabilities to deal with it, but mostly lacking in these sectors, as a consequence, resulted in huge loss not only of human life but also of resources. Time has come when the world is criticizing globalization since it contributed to the spread of COVID-19.

All of this has marked the end of one era with the emergence of a new one. It brought major economic shifts for both periphery and core states, alongside political shifts that have driven numerous to banter about the new structure of the world after the pandemic will end. The global economy due to Covid-19 crisis has a setback of $590 trillion. Apart from this many people lost their jobs, the household incomes have reduced, moreover World Bank report stated that nearly 49 million people will move into extreme poverty on account of the pandemic.

Then the World largest real estates are having economic problems, the Tourism industry has declined. An estimate showed the loss of about $1.2 to $3.3 trillion in the area of tourism all over the world. Similarly, a report of the International Air Transport Association predicted a loss of $63-$113billion.Besides this, the oil sector met severe crisis as it was for the first time that its price has gone negative. Looking specifically into the impacts it has on core states like the USA whose economy faced a major setback with about 39 million American have lost their jobs, the economy is seen to decline by 20%.

Likewise, in Europe, industrial production has declined by 17%. Apart from the key powers, COVID-19 has a more distressing impact on peripheral states as their health care facility is not well developed. For instance, the GDP of Bangladesh fell by 1.1%, then many African states that look for tourism as a source of the economy faced a loss of about $50 billion. Also, 29 million in Latin America fell into poverty. Henceforth, it can be predicted that once the pandemic will be over the world will have a lot to calculate.

Apart from this all, the Global dynamics underwent transformation amid coronavirus. The pandemic though emerged as a curse for many but at the same time act as a key factor for states like China and USA to play their cards and to turn the situations in their hands. The pandemic resulted in the beginning of a battle between two major powers as to who will act as the global saviour. Since the pandemic has provided China with a chance to raise its status and to head towards the status of global hegemon. Furthermore, the steps taken by Trump administration to withhold US funds of around $400millionwill without a doubt leave a gap, also will be an open door for China to bolster its position while taking advantage of the prevailing situation. 

The current international order set by the US will be subject to testation as the changing shifts in the geopolitics have to be catalyzed by the COVID-19. For it is now the right time for us all to ponder the relevance of Kondratieff 6th wave in the current scenario of Covid-19. As now the focus has diverted towards the health care system and biotechnology, since the world has in the current situation, saw a blame game between states with few called coronavirus as naturally occurring but some regarded it as ‘Chinese virus’. This has led to the realization that that warfare scenario has entered into a discussion over biotechnology. So after the Covid-19 pandemic, the policymakers of both periphery and core state will work on new technological areas which have the Medical technologies, Nanotechnologies, Biotechnologies etc. for the improvement in the health sector will be crucial for the progress in future.

Conclusively, the current COVID-19 as a bioweapon has resulted in a clear impetus and will definitely bring a shift in the state’s attitude towards medical research and the multiple fields of technology in future, this is so because COVID-19 has created a ground for the relevance of Kondratieff 6th wave.

Ayesha Zafar
Ayesha Zafar
My name is Ayesha Zafar and I am pursuing my Bachelors in International Relations from National Defence University, Islamabad. I have authored multiple academic publications including research articles and book chapters. My areas of interest include Middle Eastern politics, the geopolitics of Central Asia, and Indo-Pacific region.


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