World Economic Forum and the City of Los Angeles released a first-of-its-kind roadmap to support the roll-out of urban air mobility (UAM) in cities, founded on seven key principles of implementation that protect the public interest.
UAM is a new form of transport that has the potential to add an aerial dimension to cities’ transportation networks, improving connectivity and sustainability of transport infrastructure, but only if the right policies are in place. This next generation UAM resembles transit in the sky with piloted or autonomous flights of people or goods movement.
The Principles of the Urban Sky can guide city and industry leaders as they develop policy and infrastructure to ensure UAM is implemented in a way that is safe, sustainable and inclusive. These principles will be used for implementing UAM in Los Angeles.
“The current pandemic has created new challenges for transport networks and infrastructure around the world,” said Christoph Wolff, Head of Shaping the Future of Mobility at the World Economic Forum. “As we build back better, these principles provide an ethical framework for planning new modes of aerial transport at the same time as we reinvest in current forms of transit.”
The collaboration between the World Economic Forum and City of Los Angeles has led to the creation of principles that the community believes are fundamentally important to long-term success and the adoption of UAM globally. Witnessing the need for a great reset after the COVID-19 pandemic, Los Angeles city leaders saw the importance of designing a future transport system that can be value-based while supporting the creation of new jobs in the region.
“Our city’s strength stems from our creativity, our innovative spirit and our willingness to test new ideas on our streets – and in our skies – that will inspire and change the world for the better,” said Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. “Even in the face of COVID-19 today, our eyes are fixed on the horizon of a reimagined tomorrow, where Urban Air Mobility is a central part of a safe, sustainable, equitable future.”
The Principles of the Urban Sky identifies and outlines seven key components deemed critical for a scalable policy framework:
Developed over the past nine months by a working group of more than 50 manufacturers, service providers, infrastructure developers, academics, community organizations and government planners these principles aim to help policy-makers in Los Angeles and elsewhere improve quality of life with safer, cleaner, quieter and more accessible transport.
As cities and regions struggle with congestion, pollution and ageing infrastructure, policy-makers are exploring how state-of-the-art aerial platforms can be part of a multi-modal solution. Already, innovative companies are developing highly automated, electric flight in low-altitude airspace, but are seeking a clear policy environment to support deployment and implementation. This exciting frontier in travel will need not only creative technologies, but also novel approaches to policy-making to become a reality.
Comments from the industry
“Early, collaborative engagement between the aerospace industry and forward-thinking cities is critical to fully realizing the benefits of aerial mobility solutions,” said Igor Cherepinsky, Director of Sikorsky Innovations. “Defining the core principles that will underpin an operational framework is an important first step, and as a founding member of the working group we look forward to continuing these important discussions.”
“In releasing the Principles of the Urban Sky and sharing them with the global community, the World Economic Forum and City of Los Angeles are demonstrating the leadership society needs to address current and future mobility challenges,” said Pam Cohn, Chief Operating Officer, Urban Air Mobility Division of Hyundai Motor Group. “How people move around in 10 years will be different from how people move around today. We look forward to working with the World Economic Forum, the City of Los Angeles and other partners to ensure UAM planning and development efforts worldwide are inclusive, safe, sustainable and people-centred.”
“Uber applauds the World Economic Forum and the City of Los Angeles for bringing together industry, local government, and other stakeholders to develop foundational principles to inform a community focused policy framework for urban air mobility,” said Eric Allison, Head of Uber Elevate. “Uber Elevate’s vision is to provide a complementary mode of transport that can seamlessly integrate with existing transport systems to offer an efficient and clean alternative to driving in congested urban environments. These principles demonstrate both the industry and local government’s commitment to work together to realize the potential of sustainable urban aviation.”
With a view towards sharing this roadmap with cities worldwide, this collaboration between the Los Angeles Mayor’s Office and the World Economic Forum has been coordinated with technical and operational efforts led by Los Angeles Department of Transportation in conjunction with national authorities. What’s clear is that parallel strategic and operational planning are necessary for any city preparing for the roll-out of UAM and that this preparation must start well ahead of the first commercial deployments.
Rebuilding Cities to Generate 117 Million Jobs and $3 Trillion in Business Opportunity
COVID-19 recovery packages that include infrastructure development will influence the relationship between cities, humans and nature for the next 30 to 50 years. With the built environment home to half the world’s population and making up 40% of global GDP, cities are an engine of global growth and crucial to the economic recovery.
Research shows that nature-positive solutions can help cities rebuild in a healthier and more resilient way while creating opportunities for social and economic development. The World Economic Forum’s new Future of Nature and Business Report found that following a nature-positive pathway in the urban environment can create $3 trillion in business opportunity and 117 million jobs.
“Business as usual is no longer sustainable,” said Akanksha Khatri, Head of the Nature Action Agenda at the World Economic Forum. “Biodiversity loss and the broader challenges arising from rapid urban population growth, financing gaps and climate change are signalling that how we build back can be better. The good news is, there are many examples of nature-based solutions that can benefit people and planet.”
Cities are responsible for 75% of global GHG emissions and are a leading cause of land, water and air pollution, which affect human health. Many cities are also poorly planned, lowering national GDP by as much as 5% due to negative impacts such as time loss, wasted fuel and air pollution. However, practical solutions exist that can make living spaces better for economic, human and planetary health.
The study, in collaboration with AlphaBeta, highlighted examples of projects deploying nature-positive solutions and the business opportunities they create.
Cape Town: Cape Town was just 90 days away from turning off its water taps. Natural infrastructure solutions (i.e. restoring the city’s watersheds) were found to generate annual water gains of 50 billion litres a year, equivalent to 18% of the city’s supply needs at 10% of the cost of alternative supply options, including desalination, groundwater exploration and water reuse
Singapore: Singapore’s water leakage rate of 5% is significantly lower than that of many other major cities thanks to sensors installed in potable water supply lines. Globally, reducing municipal water leakage could save $115 billion by 2030. Returns on investment in water efficiency can be above 20%.
Suzhou: Suzhou Industrial Park’s green development in China has seen its GDP increase 260-fold, partially through green development. The park accommodates 25,000 companies, of which 92 are Fortune 500 companies, and is home to 800,000 people. The park has 122 green-development policies, including stipulations on optimizing and intensifying land use, improvement of water and ecological protection, and the construction of green buildings. As a result, 94% of industrial water is reused, 100% of new construction is green, energy is dominantly renewable and green spaces cover 45% of the city.
San Francisco: San Francisco requires new buildings to have green roofs. The “green” roof market is expected to be worth $9 billion in 2020 and could grow at around 12% annually through 2030, creating an incremental annual opportunity of $15 billion.
Philippines: The loss of coastal habitats, particularly biodiverse and carbon-rich mangrove forests, has significantly increased the risk from floods and hurricanes for 300 million people living within coastal flood zones. A pilot project in the Philippines, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, is monetizing the value of mangroves through the creation of the Restoration Insurance Service Company (RISCO). RISCO selects sites where mangroves provide high flood reduction benefits and models that value. Insurance companies will pay an annual fee for these services, while organizations seeking to meet voluntary or regulatory climate mitigation targets will pay for blue carbon credits. Overall, restoring and protecting mangrove forests in human settlements can reduce annual flood damage to global coastal assets by over $82 billion while significantly contributing to fighting climate change.
The report identifies five complementary transitions to create nature-positive built environments and outlines the business opportunities and potential cost savings for programmes targeting urban utilities for water, electricity and waste, land planning and management, sustainable transport infrastructure and the design of buildings.
Office space the size of Switzerland
Global examples call out areas to be improved. For example, an estimated 40 billion square metres of floor space is not used at full occupancy during office hours – an area roughly equivalent to the size of Switzerland. The COVID-19 upheaval has prompted a surge in flexible and remote working models in many countries – greater application of such models could help reduce the need for private office space in the future.
Governments’ role to raise and steer finance
The report calls for both government officials and businesses to play their part in raising and steering finance for sustainable urban infrastructure. “Regulations in areas including urban master planning, zoning and mandatory building codes will be critical to unlocking the potential of net-zero, nature-positive cities and infrastructure,” said Khatri. “We are at a critical juncture for the future of humanity. Now is the time to treat the ecological emergency as just that. A net-zero, nature-positive path is the only option for our economic and planetary survival and how we choose to use COVID-19 recovery packages might be one of our last chances to get this right.”
City Climate Finance Gap Fund Launches to Support Climate-smart Urban Development
Today, the City Climate Finance Gap Fund (“The Gap Fund”) was launched jointly by ministers and directors of the Governments of Germany and Luxembourg together with the World Bank, European Investment Bank, and Global Covenant of Mayors. It paves the way for low-carbon, resilient, and livable cities in developing and emerging economies by unlocking infrastructure investment at scale.
The Gap Fund will support city and local governments facing barriers to financing for climate-smart projects. Filling a gap in available project support, the Gap Fund offers technical and advisory services to assist local leaders in prioritizing and preparing climate-smart investments and programs at an early stage, with the goal of accelerating preparation, enhancing quality, and ensuring they are bankable.
With a target capitalization of at least €100 million, the Gap Fund will accelerate investments supporting cities in developing and emerging economies, as they determine goals and objectives for low-carbon and well-planned urbanization. The Gap Fund investment is aiming to unlock at least €4 billion of final investment in climate-smart projects and urban climate innovation.
“What cities do today will forever shape our climate tomorrow,” said Mari Pangestu, World Bank Managing Director for Development Policy and Partnerships. “Cities in developing countries urgently need resources to realize their climate ambitions. Through the Gap Fund, the World Bank is supporting low-carbon, resilient, inclusive, healthy, creative, and sustainable communities for all.”
Cities are on the frontlines of the climate emergency and currently account for around 70 percent of global CO2 emissions. Urban centers’ share of emissions is expected to grow as 2.5 billion people migrate from rural to urban areas by 2050. Before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, it was estimated that more than $93 trillion in sustainable infrastructure investment was needed by 2030 to meet climate goals. As cities strive to recover from the economic impacts of COVID-19, investments in clean energy, climate-resilient water and sanitation, and urban regeneration projects will play an important role in eliminating pollution, improving local food systems, and creating green jobs. They will also lead to cleaner, healthier, and more equitable communities – conditions that can help prevent future pandemics.
Climate investment projects are an indispensable opportunity to improve lives of the millions who live in cities around the world. However, cities frequently lack the capacity, finance, and support needed for the early stages of project preparation – especially in developing and emerging economies. This leads to impasses where cities cannot move project ideas to late-stage preparation and implementation. This hurdle is frequently overlooked by national and international support – a challenge the Gap Fund will seek to overcome.
The Gap Fund is an initiative of the governments of Germany and Luxembourg together with the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (GCOM), in partnership with several other key players in the climate finance arena (including C40, ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, and Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance). It will be implemented by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank. The Gap Fund was announced at the UN Climate Action Summit 2019 as a key initiative of LUCI, the Leadership for Urban Climate Investment, which promotes financing for ambitious urban climate action until 2025. Core donors to the Gap Fund are Germany (€45 million – including €25 million from the Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, and €20 million from the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development) and Luxembourg (€10 million).
Lahore Orange Line Metro Train (OLMT) project: A Critical Review
The mega projects are kind of integrated activities which can be classified as projects having high complexity in terms of technology and human usage. These projects are usually of greater costs and for the broader development of a state. They are of extreme physical structure, high capacity working, expensive and under huge attention of public and government. The mega projects can be of different sectors like energy, infrastructure, and communication and others. As these projects are launched with bigger aims, the economic units are also measured in million dollars. For this gigantic amount, a developing country like Pakistan has to make a plan or strategy for its long term functioning. Since 2015, Pakistan has signed a number of mega projects with china under the flag of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), not just with China but with other states also.
Mega Projects in Pakistan
In addition to that, a number of developmental projects are domestically initiated. These projects include transport like railway, airports, highways, buses, power plants, dams, economic zones etc. The rationale is to get collective benefits and to open frontiers. The policy makers are always looking forward to the mega projects for their economic, political, technological and aesthetic sublime. The greater concern in starting these kinds of project revolves around the issue of higher costs. Many critics expressed that these projects need hard core planning for taking them upon considerations as there are high stakes involved specially for the country like Pakistan. The focus here is to find out the issue areas that should be examine for the success of large scale projects. The project under study is Lahore Orange Line Metro train (OLMT).
Lahore Orange Line Metro train (OLMT)
The demand and supply in the urban lines of traffic has been increasing widely specially in a Lahore as it the second largest urban sector in Pakistan. The need of mass transit system was long felt and in May 2014, the project was signed between Pakistan and China as memorandum of understanding and is expected to be completed by 2017. As Christopher Midler explains the innovation of developmental ideas, this project was also innovatively commissioned for the development of long-term mass transit network for the feasibility of transport in the city. The financing was started in 2015 with the soft loan of 1.55b dollars. The phase 2 of the project started in 2016 and first test ran in 2018. This project has been through a bumpy road of non-completion and expected to be completed this year in October 2020.
Denico has executed six themes of analysis, after analyzing literature of good 86 articles, which are considered as conceptual framework to review the project of OLMT. Following are the themes which will help critically analyze the OLMT project:
1. Decision-making behavior
The poor performance through decision making is significantly related in literature of mega projects. This is due to the behavioral faults and faulty assessments with regards to the benefits and cost of the project. In addition to that, executives of the project usually misrepresent the trust in order to satisfy their personal interests. The behavior of the decision makers are resulted in unsuccessful outcomes as their behavior towards policies are obstinate and inflexible.
In the OLMT project, it was assessed that it will be completed by 2017 but unfortunately not completed yet. Every passing year, the government announced the running of train for public in particular year. This has been delaying due to the defective evaluation and calculation of time with respect to finalization of project.
In addition to that, the cost of project was estimated incorrect as later on, it become double to what evaluated earlier. According to a senior official working on the project, the rolling stock, track, electrical and mechanical work s costs are almost double than civil structure. The higher cost and faulty assessment has made the government pay money through loans and thus, delayed the project overall.
2. Strategy, Governance and Procurement
This involves the processes during the initiation and planning which reflects the front-end stage of the project. The decisions are made initially about the three main components that are role and responsibilities of the entities throughout the life cycle of project, formal and informal authority at both, institutional level and individual level and lastly, strategy to organize in terms of relation to the partners to get the best delivery or outcome.
For the front to end stages, the written details are the foremost requirement as a great amount of money has to spend on it. In addition, the officials and those informally associated should have an organized definition and clarity of role and responsibilities that must be stated beforehand. The OLMT is considered as star project of previous PML-N government. The contractors were asked to show a detailed presentation which they were dearth of.
Additionally, the officials were given dead line by the Supreme Court of Pakistan to complete the project till May 2019. Still the government failed to meet the direction due to the litigation on heritage sites and the land acquisition problems. This delay means that the strategy or planning for the organized running of project has been neglected from the beginning.
3. Risk and Uncertainty
It involves the process of technological development and decision making strategy to overcome the risk or uncertainties in mega projects. The technological originality to preemptively work on risk management and the preparedness for uncertain situations. There is a need of flexibility in the decision making process as well as there must be no time constraints. It has been observed that OLMT is equipped with a good quality and non-joint tracks of international standards. The metro line constructed before in the capital has been found doomed due to the infrastructure and technology faults. The Orange Line Metro Train is fully automatic and driverless, which leaves no compromise on standards can be taken at any cost. For instance, it will solely work on electricity which is again a high risk in a state like Pakistan. A good management will be highly required for regular check on working.
Leadership is something required for any project to fulfil under the supervision and a hard working team and the relationship between the two. In a country like Pakistan, there is lacking sense of project culture and thus a misalignment can be observed. There should be a team work where the project must be design in a way to damage less and provide much gains and long term gains to the state collectively. According to a study more than 40 schools and colleges demolished for the making of a train track which is a huge responsibility on the leadership and the team.
5. Stake-holder engagement and management
It includes the structure formation under certain norms where it is necessary to engage stakeholders and community in the activities of project. Mosque, Churches, residential blocks, private businesses, traditional places, schools and colleges are either demolished fully or partially or threatened. This has terrified the general public and showed resentment at larger scale.
6. Supply-Chain integration and coordination
It involved the integration of projects and sub projects and their commercial relationship. The primary cause of the poor performance is the independent working and lacking coordination at different levels. This OLMT project has also been designed on the poor understanding of architecture. It has destroyed many local businesses and important buildings which means that the route is not thoroughly coordinated and integrated.
These six themes are considered as gist to understand the loop holes in the successful regulation of mega projects from start till end. It is important to take up these points under consideration by the government for the large scale projects so to secure their trust of people and to take the country one step ahead.
Pakistan as developing country needs to learn from other states and specially the literature that have been produced. There is a dire need to move step by step towards mega projects by understanding what has been missed and must not be taken for granted. Followings are some main learnings for the upholding of future mega projects:
• Priority of customer satisfaction
• Involving key decision makers from institutional to supply chain levels
• Organizational responsiveness
• Skill and team work
• Management culture growth
• Develop penalties for ignoring or providing misleading information
• Introduce the option to defer to further assess risks
• The economic viability and avoid over commitment
• Control and flexibility for political maneuvering
• Emphasize on shorter pre-construction phase
• Higher probability of cost overrun
• Adopt integrated project teams to deliver the project
• Focus on simplification to avoid risks
• Regular reports
• Integration of stake holders and general masses
• Integration of projects and sub projects
• No compromise on Tech
• Competitive structures
• Performance measurement
• Multi check and balance system
These are only the basic and the focused measure that Pakistan should look forward in order to achieve long term and successful results. The first step that state should focus on is to research in order to understand the differences that Pakistan as a separate country faces. New studies must develop to learn from other states as well and to discuss the similarities and differences from other states. Still a key rule for these developmental mega project is to manage, evaluate and integrate for high performance.
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