If one were to look at discussions pertaining to South Asia, India’s current tensions with China, and strained ties with neighbors – especially Nepal – in recent months have drawn immense attention. One of the other important developments, which is likely to have a significant impact on South Asia’s geopolitical and economic dynamics is the Iran-China 25 year agreement, which will impact not just bilateral relations, but geo-political, economic and security dynamics in South Asia. For one, Pakistan’s ties with Iran are likely to strengthen, and Islamabad is likely to pitch its bandwagon firmly with China and Iran. Second, it has been argued, that China’s clout in Afghanistan is likely to rise, as a result of the 25 year agreement with Iran, not just in terms of economic influence, but also strategic context
India-Iran ties and the Chabahar Project
India too has begun to pay closer attention to Iran after the agreement, especially after it gave signals, that it could be elbowed out of the Chabahar-Zahedan (near the Afghan border) rail way line and important component Chabahar Port project.(India’s gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia)
A clear reiteration of this point is the recent visits by Indian Defence Minister,Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister, S Jaishankar to Tehran. Both Indian ministers met with senior Iranian officials, and discussed issues pertaining to bilateral cooperation, with an emphasis on the progress of the Chabahar project, and regional security.
It would be pertinent to point out, that Tehran has expressed its frustration with India with regard to funding, as well as the slow progress of the Chabahar project. Bilateral relations had witnessed a downhill slope, after India stopped purchasing oil in May 2019 (US had had removed the temporary exemptions from sanctions which had provided to India and some other countries). Iran criticized India for toeing the US line, and began to warm up to Pakistan. Significantly, Tehran criticized India for the revocation of Article 370 in August 2019
Iran’s Supreme leaderAli Khamenei said
“We’re concerned about the Muslims’ situation in Kashmir. We have good relations with India, but we expect the Indian government to adopt a just policy towards the noble people of Kashmir and prevent the oppression and bullying of Muslims in this region.”
Iran had also criticized India’s policies like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and made strong statements against the Delhi riots in February 2020, expressing concern with regard to the safety of Muslims in India. Said Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif:
‘…We urge Indian authorities to ensure the well being of ALL Indians & not let senseless thuggery prevail. Path forward lies in peaceful dialogue and rule of law.’
Iranian Supreme leader made even stronger remarks.
Recent visits by top officials are an indicator, that New Delhi is keen to ensure, that the Chabahar Project remains on track, and that on Afghanistan, Tehran does not totally toe Beijing’s line on Afghanistan. Another important consideration is possible change of guard in Washington DC. It is likely, that Joe Biden will follow a different approach, from Donald Trump, vis-à-vis Iran, and is likely to be open to engagement with Tehran (this will provide India space to pursue economic links with Iran).
While India has been seeking to amend ties with Iran, with an eye on its vision for regional connectivity, Pakistan has recently agreed to become part of the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement( QTTA which will enable it to circumvent Afghanistan. The Karakorum highway will be Pakistan’s gateway to Central Asia. It connects Gilgit-Baltistan to China’s Xinjiang region, which further links with Central Asian States
One of the reasons cited by Pakistan, for going ahead with QTTA Kabul has been reluctant to provide access to Pakistani products for reaching out to Central Asian states. Kabul has put the pre-condition that it would only allow the same, if Pakistan allowed land access for Indian goods to reach Afghanistan.
During Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Sardor Umur Zakov recent visit to Pakistan, he met with Pakistan PM Imran Khan, and senior officials. Possible ways of bolstering bilateral economic ties and connectivity were explored, and issues pertaining to regional security were discussed
Connectivity and trade are important, and for very long suggestions have been made by commentators for New Delhi and Islamabad not just to strengthen economic linkages, but also to explore regional connectivity initiatives together. The strained relationship between India and Pakistan has meant that such suggestions are nothing, but a mere pipe dream.
At the inauguration of the Kartarpur Religious Corridor in November 2019, Navjot Singh Sidhu, a Former Indian cricketer and Congress legislator from Punjab (India) had also pitched for imaginative thinking, and to foster economic cooperation between the two Punjab’s.
“My dream is that a trader should start after having breakfast from Amritsar in the morning and come to Lahore and have biryani here, do his business and go back to Amritsar,” he said.
While in the immediate future all countries have to look out for their economic interests and connectivity is a key tool for the same. In the longer run, it would make sense for New Delhi and Islamabad to resume not just bilateral trade, but also to set aside differences, and to work towards examining synergies in the area of regional connectivity. The ultimate aim should be India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran connectivity and a zero sum approach should not drive regional connectivity initiatives.
Blue Economy and its potential in Pakistan
Blue economy refers to the sustainable use and management of ocean and coastal resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods, and the preservation of the marine environment. It encompasses a wide range of economic sectors, including fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, shipping, renewable energy, and biotechnology, among others.
The concept of blue economy recognizes that the ocean and its resources can contribute significantly to the global economy and the well-being of coastal communities. However, it also acknowledges the need to ensure that these resources are used in a sustainable and responsible manner, considering the fragility of the marine ecosystem and its crucial role in supporting life on Earth.
The blue economy concept has gained prominence in recent years, with several countries and international organizations promoting policies and initiatives to harness the economic potential of the ocean while preserving its health and biodiversity.
Pakistan has a long coastline of approximately 1,046 kilometers, which presents immense potential for blue economy development. The country’s coastal areas are rich in marine resources, including fish, shrimp, crab, lobsters, and other seafood, which can be exploited sustainably for economic growth and job creation.
Pakistan’s fisheries sector is one of the main contributors to the country’s economy, providing livelihoods to millions of people. The sector can be further developed by introducing modern fishing techniques, improving the quality of seafood, and promoting export-oriented fisheries.
Pakistan also has significant potential for the development of mariculture, which involves the cultivation of marine organisms such as seaweed, shellfish, and finfish. The country’s warm waters and favorable climatic conditions provide ideal conditions for mariculture, which can help diversify the economy and reduce pressure on wild fish stocks.
In addition, Pakistan’s coastal areas are rich in mineral resources, including oil and gas, which can be extracted sustainably to contribute to the country’s energy needs and economic growth.
Furthermore, Pakistan has significant potential for developing the tourism sector along its coastal areas, including beaches, historical sites, and marine parks. This can attract both domestic and international tourists, creating job opportunities and generating revenue.
Moreover, Pakistan has great potential for developing its blue economy, and it is important to ensure that this is done in a sustainable and responsible manner to protect the marine environment and ensure long-term benefits for the country’s economy and people.
There are several ways to ensure the sustainable development of the blue economy in Pakistan. Here are some key steps that can be taken:
Implement and enforce regulations: Pakistan should adopt and enforce strong laws and regulations to ensure sustainable use of marine resources, protect the marine environment, and promote responsible business practices. This can include measures such as catch limits, gear restrictions, and protected areas.
Strengthen research and monitoring: Adequate research and monitoring of marine ecosystems are crucial for effective management and conservation. Pakistan should invest in scientific research and monitoring programs to better understand the marine ecosystem and the impacts of human activities.
Promote sustainable fisheries practices: Pakistan should promote sustainable fishing practices, such as using selective fishing gear, reducing bycatch, and implementing closed seasons and areas, to ensure that fish stocks are not depleted and the ecosystem is protected.
Encourage responsible tourism: The tourism sector can have both positive and negative impacts on the marine environment. Pakistan should promote responsible tourism practices, such as limiting tourist activities in sensitive areas, reducing waste and pollution, and educating tourists about sustainable behavior.
Support innovation and technology: Innovative technologies can help reduce the impact of human activities on the marine environment and improve resource management. Pakistan should invest in research and development of new technologies, such as offshore aquaculture, renewable energy, and waste management systems.
Foster public-private partnerships: Public-private partnerships can play a critical role in developing sustainable blue economy practices. Pakistan should encourage collaboration between government, businesses, and civil society to promote sustainable practices and ensure that economic development is balanced with environmental protection.
Overall, ensuring the sustainable development of the blue economy in Pakistan will require a collaborative effort from all stakeholders, including government, businesses, civil society, and local communities. By taking a holistic approach and prioritizing sustainable practices, Pakistan can unlock the economic potential of its marine resources while safeguarding the health and well-being of its people and the environment.
China-Russia summit: What economic goals ahead?
The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to feature a wide range of issues for discussion, with bilateral economic cooperation being one of the most critical areas that will need an in-depth analysis and an ambitious action plan.
As stated by the Chinese president in his article titled “Forging Ahead to Open a New Chapter of China-Russia Friendship, Cooperation and Common Development,” published in the Russian media on March 20, both countries “need to raise both the quality and quantity of investment and economic cooperation and step up policy coordination to create favorable conditions for the high-quality development of our investment cooperation.”
The track-record of intensifying the China-Russia economic cooperation in 2022 will need to be assessed with due consideration with regard to both the achievements as well as those areas where there remains substantial scope for boosting bilateral ties.
On the bright side, there is the record-high trade turnover between China and Russia posted in 2022. A figure of around $190 billion in trade turnover comes close to the newly established $200 billion target for bilateral trade set for 2024. With annual growth in trade turnover reaching 34.3 percent in 2022, the momentum appears strong for the $200 billion target to be reached well ahead of schedule.
China’s optimization of COVID-19 measures and the liberalization of transportation regulations (including with respect to direct flights between China and Russia) will likely boost bilateral trade further, including in the services sector (most notably in the tourist segment).
On the other hand, figures on investment from China to Russia, most importantly long-term foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, show a significantly more moderate growth pace compared to the above-mentioned trade growth figures. The FDI data published by the Eurasian Development Bank suggests that the stock of FDI from China to Russia grew by 27.4 percent from 2016 to mid-2022, implying an annual average growth rate of a little over 3 percent. According to the forecasts coming from the Eurasian Development Bank, growth in FDI inflows from China into Russia is likely to continue, albeit still at a moderate pace.
Against the backdrop of these trends in trade and investment, the use of national currencies will very likely be another point of discussion at the China-Russia talks. Last year saw a substantial rise in the use of the rouble and the Chinese yuan in bilateral trade transactions. In the course of 2022, the share of the rouble and the yuan in Russia’s export operations increased from 12 percent and 0.5 percent to 34 percent and 16 percent, respectively; the share of the U.S. dollar and the Euro declined to less than 50 percent by end-2022.
As regards Russia’s imports the share of the yuan increased from 4 percent to 23 percent, while that of the Russian rouble declined from 29 percent to 27 percent, the share of the U.S. dollar and the Euro declined from 65 percent to 46 percent.
In spite of the impressive scale of de-dollarization in bilateral trade, there is still ample scope to further increase the use of national currencies. This should be made possible by greater use of national and regional payment systems – not only on a bilateral basis, but also in the broader framework of BRICS via the introduction of the long-awaited BRICS Pay system.
Another possible venue to de-dollarization that may be discussed at the summit may be the launching of a new BRICS reserve currency – a project that Putin unveiled in mid-2022. The future of this new currency dubbed R5 (all five currencies of BRICS countries start with a letter “R”) to a significant degree will depend of the readiness of both China and Russia to pursue a coordinated approach to launching such an undertaking that may prove to be critical not only for the BRICS proper, but for the broader realm of the developing world.
To forge ahead with greater de-dollarization, it is critical to ensure greater coordination in international economic organizations. This is particularly important for the advancement of the global role of such groupings as BRICS that have taken on a rising prominence on the international arena, particularly after the successful BRICS chairmanship of China in 2022. Both countries play a crucial role in making BRICS a dynamic, open and inclusive platform, with one of the near-term issues being that of BRICS expansion and the possibility of the inclusion of new large emerging markets into the BRICS core.
In the end, the meeting between the leaders of China and Russia will present an opportunity to build on the strong momentum in boosting bilateral economic cooperation. Apart from the rising prominence of Global South, there is the resurgence of economic concerns in the West – against the backdrop of rising fragilities in the financial sector in the U.S. and Europe, boosting bilateral economic ties between China and Russia may be seen as lowering the susceptibility to the rising frequency of crisis waves emanating from developed economies.
Author’s note: First published at CGTN
Is the Western Moral Triumph still possible? Of Jeffrey Sachs and Edges of Globalization
“It feels like I imagine 1912 to feel” stated US Columbia Professor Jeffrey Sachs during an extraordinary zoom conference on the 8th of March. The discussion about the current geopolitical state with Geneva participants, concepted and hosted by professor Anis H. Bajrektarevic, was held on an emblematic day, the International Women’s Day, celebrating female achievements in social, cultural and political fields. As Professor Sachs reminded, to remember this occasion is of the highly importance to maintain human rights at the core of our engagements in a froth and difficult geopolitical situation.
Jeffrey David Sachs, born November 5, 1954 is a US economist, academic, public policy analyst, and former director of the Columbia’s Earth Institute, where he holds the title of university professor. He is known for his work on sustainable development, economic development, and the fight to end poverty.
Currently, Sachs is Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and President of the UN SD Solutions Network. He is an SDG Advocate for UN Sec-General Antonio Guterres on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a set of 17 global goals adopted at a UN summit meeting in September 2015. Previously, from 2001 to 2018, Sachs served as Special Advisor to the UN Secretary General, and held the same position under the previous UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and prior to 2016 a similar advisory position related to the earlier Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), eight internationally sanctioned objectives to reduce extreme poverty, hunger and disease by 2015. In connection with the MDGs, he had first been appointed special adviser to the UN Secretary-General in 2002 during the term of Kofi Annan.
Sachs is co-founder and chief strategist of Millennium Promise Alliance, a nonprofit organization dedicated to ending extreme poverty and hunger. From 2002 to 2006, he was director of the UN Millennium Projects network on MDGs. He is co-editor of the World Happiness Report (co-authored with Helliwell and Layard). In 2010, he became a commissioner for the Broadband Commission for Sustainable Development (developmental effects of broadband in international policy).
For the past three decades, Sachs extensively advised numerous governments in Europe, MENA, and Afro-Asia. He has written number of books and received several awards. He has been criticized for his views on economics, the origin of Covid-19, war in Ukraine and decoupling from China.
During his mesmerizing talk and exchange with the participants, professor Sachs evoked the biased diametrically opposed media information conveyed by the West and Russia, reinforcing the dangerous and froth environment of an escalating and unpredictable war. The honorable guest spoke about the conflict’s real debuts, “33 years ago at the cold war’s sundown under Gorbachev’s leadership and the promise by the US and Germany that NATO would not expand east, as well as the rise of the US as the ultimate superpower”. Giving the admiring audience anecdotes of his career, Jeffrey Sachs explained how the conflict is wrongly portrayed aiming for an Orwellian amnesia, and how things could have been handled strategically differently and with more honesty and empathy, ending in a dissimilar outcome. His principal host, prof. Anis asked him: “Jeff, is the moral triumph of the (political) west still possible?”
He lankly criticized the change of US policy towards China since 2015, labeling the country as an enemy as its economy rose, creating a dangerous environment that leaves no place for diplomacy. Professor shared his worries towards the tensions and the fear of an escalating hot war that could easily lead to a nuclear conflict. To Professor Sachs the aggressive US’ hegemonic policy towards China is senseless and dangerous and weakening diplomacy. “All China wants is to be respected and all America wants is to be told how smart they are”- he stated. He insisted on the fact that we need an open new world where there is no US or Europe leading but a world of acknowledgement, history, justice, appreciation and hope.
Throughout the discussions, the esteemed Professor criticized the lack of communication between Biden and Putin and the huge irresponsibility that he places mostly on the US side. He insisted on the importance of communicating in diplomacy as well as with each other in day to day lives. Further on, distinguished guest engaged audience in a constructive critic of the western positions in contemporary world of slobalisation and attempts of decoupling from the Sino world through the accelerated spiral of violent rhetoric’s and wargames. Finally, he made a reference on the recent hearing at the UN Security Council related to the so-called North Stream issue.
The inspiring yet easy-going talk evolved in a friendly exchange of questions and remarks between Professor Sachs and the participants. Content intensive, inspiring reflective and farsighted, yet amicable and family-like atmosphere with a direct, personal access to the notable guest deeply impressed all. As the event came to an end, with the univocal wish of organizing global teaching, a global seminar to educate people and especially young people on important topics (including human rights and liberties), Professor Anis Bajrektarevic closed the meeting by inviting Professor Sachs to make time on his very busy agenda to visit Geneva soon to continue the discussion, proposition that was kindly welcomed and agreed to.
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