On 13 August, Donald J Trump announced Abraham Accord, which is signed between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel. As per the agreement, UAE has announced the full normalization of ties with Israel, while Israel has agreed to shelve its plan to annex 30% of the West Bank which means UAE has become the third Arab state after Egypt and Jordan to accept Israel. The news has flared up the quarrel that why UAE normalized its relations with Israel and what will be the future of this deal for UAE, Israel, US and Iran. UAE’s foreign ministry has regarded the deal as a “win-win situation,” whereas Palestine has held this accord as “treacherous stab in the back.” This recent development could lead to a major shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East.
Keeping the Palestine cause apart, the surge in cooperation is to subdue Iranian influence in the Middle East as both regard Iran as a destabilizing factor in the region. Iran’s military capacity is a stern peril to the US, Israel and UAE’s strategic interest in the Middle East. In the past, several attempts have been made to normalize the relations; both states have quietly cooperated for years on trade and security.
Historically, both states haven’t faced each other in any battle and relations cannot be outlined as of hostility; Israeli ministers and athletes have been hosted by UAE in the recent past. Israel even holds a diplomatic office in Abu Dhabi, since 2015. Israel was invited to participate in the Dubai World Expo 2020, which has been delayed to 2021, but the point to ponder from all of these references is that the inching towards normalization with Israel has always been on the table for UAE.
As far as Palestine is concerned, UAE has already left Palestinian cause as the UAE-Palestine relations have been soured. UAE hasn’t sent any money to Ramallah based government since 2014, but when it did try to send medical supplies to Palestine amid Covid-19, it was rejected by Palestine because the supplies were first landed in Tel Aviv. Moreover, when the Jerusalem was recognized as the capital of Israel by Trump, weariness was observed from the Emiratis which would have given a clear indication to Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) that normalizing ties would not receive any strong protest in UAE. Furthermore, UAE understands that West Bank is already annexed, as 600,000 Israelis are settled there. So the idea to halt annexation is not the major agenda to forge an alliance with Israel.
This deal is a huge coup for Israel — who has been consistently pushing the Muslim world to normalize ties. The deal states that the annexation will be paused even Trump in his latest speech has said that the annexation plan is off the table, but for Netanyahu, it is still ‘on the table’. Without committing to peace in Palestine or a two-state solution, Israel has normalized its relations with the UAE while continuing bombing in Gaze.
The speciality of this agreement for Tal Aviv will be that this peace came at a time when no peace negotiation was taking place. In the past, Egypt signed Camp David accords in 1979 and Jordon signed the agreement at the heights of Oslo in 1994, but for now, no such conflict was present between Israel and UAE. This is a real success for Tal Aviv because this agreement could alter the stalemate in the region, possibly leading more states in the region to normalize ties with Israel by taking the annexation plan as an excuse for forging ties with Israel.
Furthermore, the agreement will bolster the standing of Israeli businesses who will have access to Abu Dhabi and Dubai along with this direct flights will resume from Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi. Henceforth, UAE will act as a gateway to the wider Arab world for Israel. The agreement has come at a time when Netanyahu is facing corruption charges, so this agreement will allow him to show himself as a diplomat who will unleash the Arab world for Israel.
For Trump, the deal is “Huge”. This deal will act as a major diplomatic win for Trump administration before elections. So far, Trump’s foreign policy approach hasn’t been effective. Trump’s approach against Iran couldn’t seal any outcome, along with that, the US will withdraw from Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban is on the surge and US-China Tussle amid coronavirus have shown that there was a rifle in Trump to find a diplomatic achievement. This deal will add to Trump’s success which could be bolstered if more Arab states come forward to normalize ties with Israel. Four Arab Israel wars and finally a deal with UAE, Trump will use it to show that he is a peace broker in the region. Despite this diplomatic triumph, this deal won’t help Trump in gaining voters because the voters won’t be focusing on foreign policy success.
This agreement will have major repercussions for the Iranian interest, although UAE has stated that the agreement is ‘not directed at Iran’. This agreement will act as a game-changer in the regional equations as the region will become a geopolitical hotspot. The rhetoric’s from Iran are strong —Iranian supreme leader Hassan Rohani, has regarded this act as a “huge mistake” and a “treacherous act” and a mass protest has been witnessed outside UAE consulate in Tehran.
The closeness of ties between Iran’s regional archenemy and UAE, in the Gulf, is due to many factors, but the major reason is the antipathy towards Iran. Furthermore, the US sanctions against Iran after withdrawing from P5+1, let UAE see this as an opportunity to align its interest with those of US and Israel to counter Iran’s influence in the region and this lies in line with Trump’s Middle East Policy to promote diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states.
The stance of Iran is clear, as per Iranian army chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bather said that our relation with UAE will change if Iran’s interest in the Persian Gulf is damaged, or any act amid the agreement leads to a national security threat, for Iran. The prospect of such a deal could lead to increase in subversive activities by Iran against UAE, along with that, Iran could stop the free navigation of UAE oil tankers in the Persian Gulf to show its grievances over the agreement.
The deal will explore cooperation in military and security domains. Recently, Mossad’s chief has visited UAE – a warning for Iran, if the deal expands to the security field. UAE will be keen to sign a deal to acquire an Iron Dome missile defense system, which could counter Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. Furthermore, a deal of F-35 to the UAE is in the process despite broad objection by Israel which if materialized could pose serious concern for Iran as UAE will become the second country in the middle east to acquire the most advanced fighter jet.
Henceforth, the deal is a hallmark for both states as it will help them to increase ties – Cooperation in Trade, security, and technological domains are expected. UAE will be seeking to expand its role in the region. Cooperation in the military and strategic sphere will remain a hot topic for the policymakers who will be observing Iranian counter-strategy against Abraham accord.