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Following the unknown route: The world in searching of dollar substitute

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The ongoing escalation of trade wars and competition among the world’s top economies makes it imperative to consider institutionalizing several currency zones to form a sort of currency “multipolarity”.

The forthcoming “currency multipolarity” became the subject of disputes in the 1990s, after the launch of a project to create a EU currency. Robert Mundell, the author of Optimum Currency Areas and winner of the Swedish National Bank’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, predicted in 2000 that by 2010 the euro would cover at least 50 countries. The dollar would de facto become a common currency for Latin American countries, while Asia would move towards a currency area under the aegis of the Japanese yen. Being within such zones, under the cover of strategic alliances, countries can carry out a coordinated currency policy and put up a joint resistance to market fluctuations.

However, the history of a battle between the euro and the dollar has turned out to be controversial. On the one hand, by 2019 the euro had made a tangible contribution to the weakening of the positions of the US dollar in global economy. According to the European Commission, at that time one fifth of global currency reserves were linked to the single European currency. «340 million people use it on a daily basis, 60 countries and territories link their currencies to it».

On the other hand, sanctions and tariff strikes by the Trump administration  against nominal allies over the past two years have demonstrated that Europe is still highly dependent on the financial system which hinges on the US dollar. In general,  despite its successes of the past 20 years, the euro has yet to go beyond the “clearly set” boundaries of a regional currency.

Unexpectedly for many financial experts, the early 2010s saw the speedy arrival on the global financial and economic scene of China. According to The Economist, the results of 2019 say that yuan-denominated debt instruments outnumbered the pound, the euro and the Japanese yen. But not the dollar. The share of the dollar revolves around 52-55 percent throughout the years that have passed since the 2008 financial crisis.

In the course of the coronavirus crisis the Chinese bond market demonstrated the best resilience. By the end of the first six months capitalization of the market exceeded 14 trillion dollars, the world’s second position (capitalization of the US bond market is around 42 trillion dollars). The yields of the Chinese government’s bonds exceeded the American ones more than fourfold.

In recent years China has considerably strengthened its position of a world creditor, by far overtaking the USA. By early 2020, direct and trade loans, issued by Chinese state-run and privately owned businesses to more than 150 countries, exceeded 1.5 trillion US dollars. China has officially assumed the position of the world’s number one creditor, leaving behind the World Bank, the IMF, and the governments of OECD taken together.

A third factor that, according to the economic theory, must contribute to the promotion of national currency as a global one, is leadership in financial technologies. The Chinese financial technology is already one of the most advanced worldwide. At its disposal is the billion-worth market at home and nearly 2.5 billion people in “third world” countries which have no access to the  traditional financial services of western companies and banks.

Finally, a fourth factor facilitating the rise of national currency is the coronavirus pandemic, which provided a powerful impetus for millions of employees to switch to online work. Next to come were the financial services and Internet trade, in which China holds equally top positions. Beijing’s progress in dealing with the pandemic, along with an ever greater number of countries expressing distrust of the US policies, fuels interest in the yuan. Meanwhile, the transition of the USA and China to a “cold” financial, technological and economic war appears inevitable. All these factors combined create the prerequisites for currency division. According to Nihon Keizai Shimbun, “in a divided world it is extremely unadvisable for one currency to become a model one”.

Discontent over the current position of the dollar is felt inside the United States as well.  In May Foreign Affairs complained that the dollar, which has become very costly due to the influx of “superfluous” capital, is inflicting damage on the production sector, “eliminates” jobs in unstable states, aggravates political polarization inside the country. If the influx of capital into the USA continues to increase, “……it will be more and more difficult to ensure a balanced and even growth”. “ At some point the USA will have no choice but introduce restrictions on the import of capital in the interests of national economy – even if it means a voluntary rejection of the global supremacy of the dollar as a reserve currency”.

On August 27 the US Federal Reserve Service issued a statement on changes in its monetary and credit policy, which observers deem as “destruction” of the existing system. The new policy of the American Central Bank can be viewed as a signal of readiness for reconsidering the international role of the dollar in the direction of downgrading its stance.

Some experts believe, however, that an abrupt departure of the dollar from the position of a top global currency, including a “sudden” arrival of a fairly strong alternative reserve currency, can provoke a «large-scale economic crisis in China», «a fall of oil prices by several times», and a rapid reduction of “economic activity across the globe”.

In addition, any currency that claims a reserve status, even if at a regional level, will have to overcome several obstacles. The first one deals with the logic of economic entities. According to The Economist, one hypothesis maintains that denomination of prices in one currency, particularly on highly competitive markets, makes it possible for companies to avoid sharp fluctuations of prices compared to their competitors. The other assumption argues that using the same currency for both imports and exports protects against losses in case of denomination of national currency.

It is highly probable that it is these factors that explain correlation between the share of dollar and euro “blocs” in the global gross product (approximately 60 and 25%) with their share in currency reserves (in September 2014  — 60,7 and 24,2%). Also,  they account for “a relative stability of the volume of dollar currency reserves despite ……a reduction in the share of the USA in global economy in the past decades”. This logic can also explain the low percentage of yuan transactions in global trade. In different estimates, the share of payments in yuan in trade transactions made up 1.5-2 percent in early 2020.  For comparison, China’s share in global commodity trade is 10 percent.

The second obstacle has to do with the “historical” linkage of many commodity prices, in the first place, oil prices, to the dollar. At present, the global oil market is a single and spot one. Transactions on this market are short-lived and are clinched in dollars, to minimize risks and cut costs. There is a viewpoint under which the main purpose of the American “slate revolution” is to preserve such a state of things on the oil market. Also, to bring the world gas market to the “spot” format. Such a reformatting of markets will make it possible to preserve the linkage of oil and gas market to the US dollar.

Finally, the third obstacle, the most fundamental one, is of geopolitical nature.  It tests the ability of the emitter of global reserve currency to create and maintain a stable world order, in the center of which it resides. The temporary lag, from the 1880s, when the United States surpassed the British Empire in production, to 1944, when the agreements in Bretton-Woods were signed, demonstrates the importance of geopolitics in the process of replacing the British pound with the American dollar as a leading world currency.

On the whole, so far playing against the yuan are the high costs of “carrying out financial transactions, related to obtaining and disseminating information”; the limited capacity of “China to produce political influence on other global economic centers, mainly the United States and the EU”; “China’s dependence on Hong Kong as a regional offshore financial center”. Beijing cannot afford free movement of capitals in the absence of “fundamental” and “politically challenging” structural reforms in the economy.

Speaking against the euro is the absence, unlike the main competitors, the dollar and the yuan, of a “solid foundation”. The EU common budget is set to pay subsidies to member countries, while years-long disputes about establishing a common ministry of finance all but fuel discord in relations between 19 governments of eurozone countries. The growth of Eurozone “strongly depends” on export “and on the corresponding export of capital”.

The optimistic way out of the current situation is agreement between three top economies, the USA, China and the EU, on forming a currency basket, similarly to the IMF rules of drawing loans. In this situation, the function of regulating “the basket” goes to either the IMF, or “a new international financial institute set to this  end”. In case the events follow an unfavorable scenario, “given the world’s division into blocs currencies could also split into sectors”.

However, in Eurasia and in the Middle East the idea of “optimum currency area” would be particularly hard to put into practice. The author of the concept, Robert Mundall, insisted that for a successful currency integration “it was necessary to guarantee maximum economic openness; close trade ties with partner countries: correlation of economic cycles which develop in separate countries with a cycle that is inherent in the major economic integration potential”. Russia is demonstrating a good example of policy for countries which are not ready to enter either the dollar zone or the euro area.

Moscow has been diversifying its currency reserves in recent years, focusing on the yuan as well. Amid the aggravation of trade wars, gold is becoming an alternative to the existing reserve currencies. Gold will do a good service to countries in case of the arrival of a currency basket, to strike a compromise between the dollar, the euro and the yuan.

The Russian Central Bank has been systematically purchasing gold since 2005. The purchase of gold reserves has been gaining pace since the second half of the 2010s, which is largely “due to the political and economic situation in the world and Russia’s determination to reduce dependence on the unpredictable US policy and the dollar”. China too, has been buying gold, just as many “developing economies”. The coronavirus crisis has changed radically the formerly skeptical attitude of western politicians and commentators to the policy of purchasing gold.  Particularly after the price of gold exceeded an 11-year maximum at the end of July. At the same time, gold does not earn interest but requires spending on storage.

In general, if the formation of currency multipolarity is accompanied by rate fluctuations and chaotic transition of capitals from one  currency into another and back, it will surely lead to either a new global crisis, or will dramatically aggravate the current one, should it linger for several years. Meanwhile, China or the EU are hardly interested in an early fall of the dollar: an excessively high yuan or euro rate will undermine the positions of Chinese and European producers and conversely, provide American exporters with unjustified advantages.

Financial markets today are a system of communicating vessels. Also, the years following the 2008 crisis saw the return of interest in “Keynesian methods”, which envisage a substantial control of the economy on the part of the government.  The corona crisis has fueled political moods in favor of currency sovereignty. Presumably, changes in the distribution of power among reserve currencies will hardly run ahead of changes on the geopolitical scene.

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Future Economy: Micro-Manufacturing & Micro-Exports

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Recovery now forces economies to emerge as dynamic entrepreneurial landscapes; today, the massively displaced working citizenry of the world may not return to old jobs, but with little help slowly shifting towards entrepreneurial startups as new frontiers to create economic independence and increased local grassroots prosperity. Today, the latest global influences of trendy entrepreneurialism optimizing available options like high quality “Micro-Manufacturing” and high value added “Micro-Exporting” now common discussions on the main streets of the world.  Although, this is not an easy task, but still very doable for so many and promises local uplifts. Smart nations are awakening to such bold notions and entrepreneurial driven agencies mandated to foster local economies are using virtual events to rise up with global rhythm and rich contents.

 Therefore, the blueprints and new models of today on upskilling SME exporters and reskilling for better-designed manufacturing, nation-by-nation and city-by-city are mobilization ready ideas to optimize abandoned talents. Nevertheless, such upskilling and reskilling of masses demands already skilled leadership of most of the gatekeepers of local economic development venues. 

Furthermore, global competitiveness has raised the bar and now only high quality value added goods and services traded for the wide-open world. The conveyer belts of technology and zoomerang culture of virtual connectivity flourishes platform economies. Missing are the advanced skills, complex problem solving and most importantly national mobilization of entrepreneurialism on digital platforms of upskilling to foster innovative excellence and exportability. SME and Startups must advance on global thinking, optimize access, and maximize image and quality superiority to reach the farthest markets with deeper pockets.

This is not an easy task. Methodical progressions needed. Study how Pentiana Project tabled advanced thinking on such trends during the last decade. Export Promotion Agencies, Chambers of Commerce, Trade Associations and most SME and midsize economic developments bodies all called for bold and open debates. For fast track results, follow the trail of silence and help thought leadership to engage in bold and open debates and give them guidance to overcome their fears of transformation.

Small enterprises must now open to new world of 200 nations and 10,000 cites

Micro-Exporters: Upskilling Startups to think like global exporters; the pandemic recoveries across the world coping with a billion displaced all have now critical needs of both upskilling and reskilling. Upskilling is the process of learning new skills to achieve new thinking. Reskilling is the process of learning new skills to achieve new performances. What is exporting, how to start at micro-levels and how to expand globally with technology are new challenges and promising options.

Micro-Manufacturers: Reskilling Startups to think like smart manufacturers; the real goals for startups to enlarge and base thinking on reskilling for “real value creation” becomes mandatory. How to start by thinking better, design quality with creative global age strategies and advance?  Advanced Manufacturing Clusters in various nations will greatly help, but understanding of global-age expansion of value offerings with fine production is a new art and commercialization to 200 nations a new science.

The future of economies, The arrival of Virtual leadership and Zoomerang culture is a gift from pandemic recovery, although at infancy, the sector will not only grow but also alter global commerce for good. Once successful the traditional advertising and marketing models dying, direct access live interaction is now far superior to mass-mailing and social media screaming.  The zoomerang impact of global thought leadership now forcing institutions to become armchair Keynote speakers and Panelists to deliberate wisdom from the comfort of their homes round the clock events has arrived.

The Difficult Questions: Nation-by-nation,when 50% of frontline teams need ‘upskilling’ often 50% of the back-up teams need ‘reskilling’ so how do you open discussions leading to workable and productive programs? Each stage challenges competency levels and each stage offers options to up-skill for better performances. Talent gaps need fast track closing and global-age skills need widening. New flat hierarchical models provide wide-open career paths and higher performance rewards in post pandemic recovery phases. When executed properly such exercises match new skills and talents with the right targeted challenges of the business models and market conditions. The ultimate objective of “extreme value creation” in any enterprise must eliminate the practices of ‘extreme value manipulations”.

First Three Steps:  In order to mobilize a startups revolution along with a small medium business economy, start by identifying 1000 to 10,000 high enterprises anxious to grow for national global markets. To quadruple exportability, select a small leadership team, from local trade Associations, Economic Development Bodies and Chambers of Commerce responsive to calls of upskilling and reskilling as critical steps. Suggest roundtable discussions to reach local, national or global audiences to spread the message. Explore such superior level debates to mobilize local businesses.  Most importantly, such mobilizations are not new funding dependent they are deployment hungry and execution starved. Futurism is workless, uplifting mental powers towards better value-added production of goods and services will save economies.  Optimize zoomerang culture and use virtual events to raise the bar on thought leadership. The world is moving fast and best to join the pace.

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Portugal’s crisis management: “Economic patriotism” should not be tied to ideological beliefs

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The economic policy of the Hungarian government has provoked fierce criticism in the last decade, as it deviated from the neoliberal mainstream and followed a patriotic path, putting Hungarian interests in the foreground. While many link this style of political economy to the conservative position of the Orbán-government, in Portugal, a left-wing administration followed a similarly patriotic line to overcome the symptoms of the Eurozone crisis, showcasing that economic patriotism is not tied to ideologies, but is merely responsible thinking.

The catastrophic path of austerity

According to the theory of austerity, the government by implying austerity measures, “puts its finances in order”, hence the state does not become indebted and consequently investors’ confidence in the economy returns. However, if we think about what we really mean by austerity (tax increases, wage cuts, budget constraints, etc.), even the theory itself sounds counterproductive. Not surprisingly, this theoretical counter productivity has been demonstrated in practice in several cases.

One of the best examples is the case of Portugal, which along with Greece and other Southern-European nations was probably hit the hardest by the financial crunch. While all of the “GIPS” (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain) entered a steer recession, Portugal somehow managed to overcome it more successfully than its regional peers, but before that, it felt the bitter taste of neoliberal structural reforms.

Although the case of Portugal was not as traumatic as the ones of its Southern-European counterparts, in order to keep its debt under control, stabilize its banks and introduce “growth-friendly” reforms, Lisbon negotiated a € 78 billion bailout package in 2011, in exchange for a rigid austerity program aimed at the 2011-2014 period, orchestrated by the European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB), the infamous “Troika”.

The neoliberal recipe did not differ much from that of Greece, and the then ruling Passos Coelho conservative government faithfully followed the structural reforms demanded by the “group of three”: working hours increased, number of bank holidays fell, holiday bonuses were abolished, wages and pensions have also been cut by 20 per cent, while public spending on health and education was drastically cut, and due to escalating privatizations, public assets have also been sold off quickly.

Despite the fact that by 2014 the country’s budget deficit as a share of the GDP had fallen to 4.5 per cent from the staggering11.2 per cent recorded in 2011 and the current account showed a surplus – as domestic demand fell apart, forcing companies to export –Portugal was still on the brink of social and economic collapse.

Public debt soared to more than 130 per cent of the GDP, tens of thousands of businesses went bankrupt, unemployment rose to 17 per cent and skyrocketed to 40 per cent amongst the youth. As a result, many talented Portuguese fled abroad, with an estimated 150,000 nationals emigrating in a single year.

The post-2015 turnaround

Things only began to change in 2015, when the Portuguese elected Anotnio Costa as Prime Minister, who was the mayor of Lisbon under the years of the crunch. Shortly after his election, Merkel encouraged the center-left politician to follow the neoliberal prescription proposed by the “Troika”, while her Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, underlined that Portugal would make a “serious mistake” if it decided not to follow the neoliberal doctrine and would eventually be forced to negotiate another rescue package.

Not being intimidated by such “threats”, Costa ditched austerity without hesitation, restored working hours, cut taxes and raised the minimum wage by 20 percent in the course of just two years. Obviously, his unpopular position made him crush with Brussels, as his government allowed the budget deficit to reach 4.4 per cent, compared to the agreed 2.7 per cent target. However, in May 2016, the Commission granted Costa another year to comply, and since then Portugal has consistently exceeded its deficit targets.

Tourism also largely assisted the post-15 recovery, to which the government placed great emphasis, so that in 2017 the number of visitors rose to a record high, reaching 12.7 million. Concurrently, Portugal has significantly improved the international reputation of its businesses and products, which contributed to increasing the country’s export revenues and attracting foreign investment.

Furthermore, Costa has raised social spending and at the same time planned to invest state revenues in transport, environmental infrastructure and energy, initiatives that could be extremely beneficial, as they would not only significantly improve the country’s sustainability, but also boost job creation, something that yet again indicates how important public investment is to an economy.

Additionally, Portugal has become an undervalued tech-hub, with plenty of start-ups offering good employment opportunities in addition to fostering innovation. The government with several initiatives, seeks to create a business-friendly ecosystem for them, under which they can thrive and boost the economy to the largest extent. It is thus not surprising, that Portugal has been the fastest growing country in Europe when it comes to the number of programmers.

Finally, one of the Costa’s top priorities, has been to lure back emigrated Portuguese who moved abroad during the crisis. To this end, tax cuts are offered to Portuguese citizens who choose to return home.

In a sum, since Costa stepped into office, Portugal has undergone a rapid recovery: economic growth has returned, unemployment has fallen radically, the public debt was also set on a downgrading path, while the budget remained well-balanced despite the increased spending, with Costa himself explaining that “sound public accounts are compatible with social cohesion”. Even Schäuble acknowledged Portugal’scrisis management, by actually calling Mário Centeno – the finance minister of the Costa government – the “Cristiano Ronaldo” of finance ministers.

Of course, not everything is bright and wonderful, as the country has emerged from a large crisis, the effects of which cannot be eliminated in just a few years. Public debt is still amongst the highest in the EU and several other challenges lie ahead for the South-European nation, especially by taking into consideration that the world economy just entered yet another crisis.

Furthermore, according to many, it was not Costa who led the recovery, but Portugal passively benefited from a strong recovery in Europe, falling oil prices, an explosion in tourism and a sharp drop in debt repayment costs. Indeed, it has to be taken into account that Portugal entered the recession in a relatively better position than many of its spatial counterparts and the relatively high quality of its domestic institutional infrastructure and policy-adaptation capacity aided the previous government to efficiently complete the memorandum of understanding (MoU) as early as 2015. Nevertheless, this is not a sufficient reason to discredit the post-2015 government’s efforts and justify the harsh austerity measures implied by the Troika. Taking into account that austerity never really provided decent results, it becomes evident that Costa’s policies were quite effective.

Economic patriotism should not be connected to ideologies

While in the case of Hungary and Poland “economic patriotism” has been fiercely criticized despite its prosperous results, this spite tendency has been an outcome of strong politicization in economic policy analysis. Even though the political context is verily important, it is also crucial to interpret economic policy independently, in order to take away valuable lessons and identify mistakes. Political bias is not a fortunate thing, as it is absolute and nullifies debate and hence development.

The case of Portugal is a perfect example, as it provides sound evidence, that a patriotic economic policy can be exercised by governments from all across the political spectrum and that the notion should not be connected to political and ideological beliefs. The left-wing Costa-government with its policy-making demonstrated that a solution always exists and that requires a brave, strong and decisive government, that pursues its own plan in the interests of the ‘patrie’, regardless of its positioning.

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The Question Of Prosperity

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Galloping economic woes, prejudice, injustice, poverty, low literacy rate, gender disparity and women rights, deteriorating health system, corruption, nepotism, terrorism, political instability, insecure property rights, looming energy crisis and various other similar hindrances constrain any state or country to be retrograded. Here questions arise that how do these obstacles take place? How do they affect the prosperity of any country? No history, geography, or culture spawns them. Simply the answer is institutions that a country possesses.

Institutions ramify into two types: inclusive and extractive. Inclusive political institutions make power broadly distributed in country or state and constrain its arbitrary exercise. Such political institutions also make it harder for others to usurp rights and undermine the cornerstone of inclusive institutions, which create inclusive economic institutions that feature secure property rights, an unbiased system of law, and a provision of public services that provide a level playing field in which people can exchange and contract; it also permits the entry of new businesses and allow people to choose their career. On the contrary, extractive political institutions accord clout in hands of few narrow elite and they have few constrains to exert their clout and engineer extractive economic institutions that can specifically benefit few people of the ruling elite or few people in the country.

Inclusive institutions are proportional to the prosperity and social and economic development. Multifarious countries in the world are great examples of this. Taking North and South Korea; both countries garnered their sovereignty in same year 1945, but they adopted different ways to govern the countries. North Korea under the stewardship of Kim Il-sung established dictatorship by 1947, and rolled out a rigid form of centrally planned economy as part of the so-called Juche system; private property was outlawed, markets were banned, and freedoms were curtailed not only in marketplace but also in every sphere of North Korea’s lives- besides those who used to be part of the very small ruling elite around Kim Il-sung and later his son and his successor Kim Jong-Il. Contrariwise, South Korea was led and its preliminary politico-economic institutions were orchestrated by the Harvard and Princeton-educated. Staunchly anticommunist Rhee and his successor General Park Chung-Hee secured their places in history as authoritarian presidents, but both governed a market economy where private property was recognised. After 1961, Park effectively taken measures that caused the state behind rapid economic growth; he established inclusive institutions which encouraged investment and trade. South Korean politicians prioritised to invest in most crucial segment of advancement that is education. South Korean companies were quick to take advantage of educated population; the policies encouraged investment and industrialisation, exports and the transfer of technology. South Korea quickly became a “Miracle Economy” and one of the most rapidly growing nations of the world. Just in fifty years there was conspicuous distinction between both countries not because of their culture, geography, or history but only due to institutions both countries had adopted.

Moreover, another model to gauge role of institutions in prosperity is comparison of Nogales of US and Mexico. US Nogales earn handsome annual income; they are highly educated; they possess up to the mark health system with high life expectancy by global standards; they are facilitated with better infrastructure, low crime rate, privilege to vote and safety of life. By contrast, the Mexican Nogales earn one-third of annual income of US Nogales; they have low literacy rate, high rate of infant mortality; they have roads in bad condition, law and order in worse condition, high crime rate and corruption. Here also the institutions formed by the Nogales of both countries are main reason for the differences in economic prosperity on the two sides of the border.

Similarly, Pakistan tackles with issues of institutions. Mostly, pro-colonial countries are predominantly inheritors of unco extractive politico-economic institutions, and colonialism is perhaps germane to Pakistan’s tailoring of institutions. Regretfully, Pakistan is inherited with colossally extractive institutions at birth. The new elite, comprising civilian-military complex and handful aristocrats, has managed to prolong colonial-era institutional legacy, which has led Pakistan to political instability, consequently, political instability begot inadequacy of incentives which are proportional to retro gradation of the country.

Additionally, a recent research of Economic Freedom of the World (WEF) by Fraser Institute depicts that the countries with inclusive institutions and most economic freedom are more developed and prosperous than the least economic free countries; countries were divided into four groups. Comparing most free quartile and least free quartile of the countries, the research portrayed that most free quartile earns even nine times more than least free quartile; most free quartile has two times more political and civil rights than least free quartile; most free quartile owes three times less gender disparity than least free quartile; life expectancy tops at 79. 40 years in most free quartile, whereas number stands at 65.20 in least free quartile. To conclude this, the economic freedom is sine quo non for any country to be prosperous, and economic freedom comes from inclusive institutions. Unfortunately, Pakistan has managed to get place in least free quartile.

In a nutshell, the institutions play pivotal role in prosperity and advancement, and are game changer for any country. Thereby, our current government should focus on institutions rather than other issues, so that Pakistan can shine among the world’s better economies. For accomplishing this highly necessary task government should take conducive measures right now.

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