Authors: Thet Thu Thu Aye & Paul Wang
Over the past 20 years, many people have held that the most important consequential bilateral relationship has been between a rising China and a ruling United States. That remains true today, and it will likely be the case for many years to come, even as the nature of that relationship changes over time. Due to this, some scholars are reluctant to accept the “new cold war” which defines the current strained relations between China and the United States. Yet, the reality is that Washington has adamantly shifted from the previous engagement with Beijing to the current confrontation with it on nearly all the key fronts: geopolitics, trade, high-technologies, finance and even the ideology on domestic governance. Recently, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo openly assailed President Xi as a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology, and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper argued that the Communist Party of China wanted Beijing to project power globally via its military and described the Indo-Pacific as the epicenter of a “great power competition with China.” Accordingly, it has led policy experts and China watchers to speak of “a drift toward Cold War,” with all the familiar hallmarks of last century’s Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Historically, the term of the “Cold War” came after the WWII in which the two strongest powers jointly defeated the Germany and later to force Japan to surrender in 1945. Yet, the two greatest powers steadily slide into a confrontation while trying to avoid fight the hot war. This was the reality accepted by the both powers as the Cold War naturally expanded into multiple areas such as starkly opposed ideologies; proxy confrontations that then become proxy wars in other areas; mutually exclusive spheres of influence in which each attempts to freeze out the other; and a global diplomatic, propaganda, and economic offensive to line up allies and cut off the economic oxygen of the other side, as scholar Zachary Karabell argued. Here it is noted that during the old cold war, Europe was the epicenter for the superpowers to compete with each other although they anxiously looked for each allies and also carried on their-directed proxy wars in several regions.
This is not the case of China’s competition with the United States although their relations have deteriorated rapidly over the past years. First, China has not entertained any geopolitical and ideological goals globally. What Beijing has earnestly sought for is its historical claim, e.g. restoring its legitimate rights like other contemporary great powers. Second, China has not historically reached its influence beyond the East Asia, although economically and demographically the overseas Chinese have resided all over the world. Third, China has still had a long way to move forward to a really developed country like Japan and South Korea in terms of its GDP per capita. Actually, it is not China that has tended to pose a threat to the United States; rather it is the United States that has felt it necessary to undermine the increasing rise of China. As a former U.S. high official said many years ago, if an anxious United States and an overconfident China were to slide into increasing political hostility, it is more than likely that both countries would face off in a mutually destructive conflict. Washington would argue that Beijing’s success is based on tyranny and is damaging to the United States’ core interests and values; Beijing, at once, would interpret that U.S. mentality as an attempt to contain and possibly even fragment the Chinese system and China as well. At the same time, China would be likely grasping its successful rejection of Western supremacy, appealing to the developing countries in Asia and Africa as well as Russia which is already hostile to the West due to the geopolitical and historical reasons. Under such a circumstances, European Union would likely seek more independent or balanced course from the United States.
This is the reason behind Beijing’s efforts to boost engagement in the EU amid worsening ties with Washington. Recently, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi started his trip to Europe for promoting global trade and economic businesses, which will be followed by a more senior diplomat Yang Jiechi who is the director of the Chinese Communist Party’s foreign affairs office. Both trips to Europe at the moment have aimed to testify that China would make all efforts to highlight the growing strategic importance of Europe as rivalry between China and the US intensifies. In addition, Yang is expected to help lay the groundwork for President Xi’s upcoming special summit with EU leaders in mid-September. In so doing, Wang-Yang’s trips to Europe means a lot since this double effort (by Wang and Yang) is, to many commentators’ knowledge, quite unprecedented. The timing is clearly to make sure that Europe is a strategic partner for China. As Yang would likely seek to go beyond the heated issue of Chinese 5G technology in talks – an area that has drawn much attention in Europe – and instead focus on partnerships with the countries he visits. Chinese state-backed investors have shown interest in port facilities in the three countries Yang is expected to visit. Greece’s Piraeus port is one of the biggest maritime assets controlled by Chinese, but on 5G, Athens has acknowledged US concerns about Chinese technology and said Huawei did not have a big market in the country. In Spain, China Ocean Shipping Company holds a 51 per cent stake in Noatum Port Holdings, giving it control over the major harbors of Valencia, Bilbao and Barcelona. Equally, the Portuguese plan to build a new container terminal in the port of Sines – the closest European facility to the Panama Canal – has attracted both Chinese and US interest.
In a response to the increasing leverage of China in Europe, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo also visited Europe recently, warning that China was a threat to the continent’s future, yet the EU remains reluctant to choose between Beijing and Washington. Strategically, China deems that the United States has tried to drive a wedge between China and Europe as it did during the previous cold war. It was widely held that in Europe, Pompeo sought to sabotage China-Europe cooperation with accusations that China was using economic relations for its military expansion. Yet, in terms of EU’s aspiration for a civilian great power, Yang’s visit aims to promote post-pandemic economic cooperation amid a renewed push by China for its non-conventional security issues. It is undeniable that the EU and China remain at loggerheads over an investment treaty, with Brussels accusing Beijing of not making concrete commitments during talks, but the two sides hold the consensus on the free trade and multilateralism.
In light of this, Wang-Yang’s trips to Europe first aim to work with Europe to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and to improve public health. As Beijing reiterates that since China is a country that advocates returning the favor, Chinese side will never forget Europe’s help when it was hit hard by the epidemic, and would never sit idly by and do nothing when Europe faces the same plight. Given that the epidemic in China has currently been effectively controlled, as a member of the global village, China is willing to continue to share its experience in fighting against the epidemic with other countries and provide necessary support to help Europe completely defeat the epidemic at an early date.
For decades, China has deemed a united, stable and prosperous Europe beneficial to itself and the world since it is Beijing’s consistent and open stance and strategic judgment. Accordingly, China would continue supporting Europe’s unity and development. This time, two top diplomats visited EU member states with a view to working out a mutually accepted trade treaty and regulations for investment. On the one hand, China and EU are not only being impacted by the pandemic, but also facing threats and challenges such as unilateralism, protectionism and the resurgence of Cold War mentality. On the other hand, Beijing opines that the two great civilizations and major forces of the world necessarily demonstrated their resolve to strengthen communication and cooperation with each other. To that end, both sides would make efforts to build up long-term strategic consensus including mutual trust, reciprocal understandings and respect to the United Nations and the current international system based on multilateralism. For example, FM Wang Yi stressed that Europe is a significant part of the multi-polar world and China and Europe are always partners not competitors. Also the French president Macron reiterated that the strategic communication between China and France was of great significance. Similarly, German Chancellor Merkel said on Friday that Germany and the European Union (EU) wanted to continue the conversation with China and set an example for multilateralism. As she said, it was necessary to cooperate with China to tackle common challenges like unilateralism. Yet, the EU and China should also hold conversations on topics where they have different views. Accordingly, the two sides vow to continue the conversation and set an example for multilateralism with fair framework conditions.
In sum, China has no resources to avoid the new cold war between China and the United States due to the anti-China mentality of the United States in general and the Trump administration in particular. Yet, China does have potentials to reverse the world to slide into the Cold War dilemma. Except that China needs to further consolidate its overall strategic partnership with Russia, it also needs to work tacitly to approach EU in strategic ways. It is because that EU represents about half of all global industrial production and multiple sorts of high technologies and investment, not to mention of its rich cultural and human legacies and global governance records. With that in mind, the best course for Beijing is to focus on its high-level strategic relations with Russia and development of a comprehensive relations with EU in a mutually beneficial way. For sure, it will take time, money, patience, and strategy. As Zachary Karabell rightly argued, yet in an age of globalization, “Best to let the Cold War be, and learn new tactics to manage a new rivalry for a different century.” Together, China and EU can make the new cold war between China and the United States manageable.
U.S.- China Strategic Competition in The East Asia
East Asia has been the most dynamic region where development has been internationally recognized. The regional politics of the region has developed a paradox that has flamed up the economic environment of the region. The trends have shown the increased intensifying security issues along with the strategic completion that has spread the security and economic tensions across the East Asian Region. In a global circle, China is known as the revisionist state. The historical manners suggest the reclaim of East Asia by the Chinese. This claim has intensified the relations between the US and China in East Asian Region. The main challenge for China is to shift the US intervention from the East Asian region for the balanced equation at the strategic level. This might provoke the US and its allies in East Asia such as Japan that will help the US to jeopardize the Chinese rule from the region. The challenge for the US and its allies in the East Asian Region is more complicated because of the economic stability of China at the International Level. This might be a proxy war for both the superpowers in the East Asian region where the conflict may rise compromising the strategic stability of the region. The strategic location of the US lies in the actual form of ability and project power over great sustainable intervals. The strategic behavior increases the policies and shapes the allies.
One prevalent belief in the United States about China’s long-term policy goals in Asia is that Beijing aspires to be the regional hegemon and wants to restore a Sino-centric order in the region.
First, Beijing favors unipolar ties at both the global and regional levels and believes that with ongoing economic growth, this trend will continue intra-regional political consultation in Asia, influence on regional affairs is going to be more diversified and more evenly distributed. Secondly, although China expects some relative increase in its influence in Asia, it understands that thanks to the boundaries of its hard power and particularly its soft power, China can never achieve a grip cherish its role within the ancient past or to the U.S. role within the region at the present.
From Beijing’s perspective, the US is an East Asia power, although not an Asian power, and its political, economic, and security interests within the region are deep-rooted, as are its commitments to regional stability and prosperity. Beijing has always welcomed a constructive U.S. role in regional affairs. At the identical time, however, Beijing also feels uneasy with certain aspects of U.S. policy. As a superpower, The US has been too dominant and intrusive in managing regional affairs. It fails to pay due regard to the voices of other regional players and sometimes gets too involved within the internal affairs of other states, lacking an understanding of their culture, history, and values.
The US and European aspects towards the South China Sea and East Asia should involve long-term perspectives of engaging ASEAN states. Such impacts will create room for the US to tackle China in the East Asian region. The development of any comprehensive strategic security policy is the need of the hour that assures one’s interest in the region. Both the states perceive a threat from each other and try to further advance their capabilities for the sake of safety and security. The US is not in a position to deal with the other power far away from its homeland, sustaining its military and protecting allies. Aggressive behavior in strategic competition can lead to unwanted results. The US would have to accept the strategic realities of China to normalize the relations. China on the other hand should rethink its policies in East Asia and Indo Pacific. However, as yet, deterrence has played its part by keeping states from a large-scale action. States running in the race of acquiring arms conventionally due to uprising strategic competitions are worsening any likely condition of conflict.
Key points for US:
In terms of identifying specific actions for a U.S. strategy for competing strategically with China in East Asia, a key element would be to possess a transparent understanding of which actions are intended to support which U.S. goals, and to take care of an alignment of actions with policy goals. Cost-imposing actions are actions intended to impose political/reputational, institutional, economic, or other costs on China for conducting certain activities within the East Asian Region, with the aim of persuading China to prevent or reverse those activities. Such cost-imposing actions need not be limited to the East Asian Region only.
The development of any comprehensive strategic security policy is the need of the hour that should involve joint military maritime exercises. The US and China have set their limits in coordinating military to military joint cooperation due to their desired interests and competition. Both the states perceive a threat from each other and try to further advance their capabilities for the sake of safety and security.
Summit for Democracy Attempts to Turn Multicolor Modern World into Black and White Divisions
One of the most important takeaways from the recent sixth plenary session of 19th CPC Central Committee is that Beijing flatly rejects Westernization as the path to modernize the Chinese society and the national economy. Instead, as it was underscored in the plenary Communiqué, the country will continue to stick to “socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era.” The leadership will preserve and further develop the system that served the people so well over last more than 70 years.
This statement did not come as a surprise to numerous China watchers all over the world. In fact, the critical choice between socialism and Western-type liberalism was not made in November of 2021, but decades ago.
One can argue that the outcomes of the sixth plenary session are yet another manifestation of a more general global trend: The world has been and will continue to be very diverse in terms of political systems, social models and economic patterns of individual nation states. Moreover, the odds are that this diversity will increase further literally in front of our eyes. Instead of the “end of history,” we will observe more intense multifaceted competition between different types of social development.
One way to react to this emerging reality is to accept it as a positive trend that enhances the overall stability of the global social system. The more diverse and complex the system is, the more resistant it is to various shocks and disturbances. To make a rough analogy with biology, a natural forest, which is a very diverse and complex ecosystem, is much more resistant to whims of the weather and natural disasters than a man-cultivated monocultural field. Accepting the trend, we should focus on how to manage competition within the increasingly diverse and complex world so that this competition will ultimately benefit all of us.
The other way to deal with this reality would be to start fighting against social, political and economic diversity by trying to advance one single model over all others. This is exactly what the Joe Biden administration is committed to doing by launching an ideological crusade against China, Russia and other nations that dare to deviate from the fundamentals of the Western development model. To make its case, the White House has announced a virtual Summit for Democracy to be hosted by the US on December 9–10 with the goal “to renew democracy at home and confront autocracies abroad.”
This vision reduces the multi-color palette of the modern world to a minimalist black and white graphics of a global fight between “democracies” and “autocracies.” It divides the international system into “us” and “them,” into “good” and “bad,” into “legitimate” and “illegitimate.” Such a reductionist system, if constructed, cannot be stable and shock-resistant by definition: Any major international crisis or a regional conflict could spark high risks of implosion.
It goes without saying that the nations of the world should firmly oppose corruption, abuses of power by state authorities and gross violations of human rights. If the goal of the Summit for Democracy were to confront these evils on a global scale, there would be no need to make the event exclusive by inviting mostly US friends and allies. If the goal is to advertise the US political, social and economic model, Washington should probably delay the summit and put its house in order first. If the goal is to isolate Beijing and Moscow in the world of politics, this is not likely to work well for the US.
Nations of the world have a right and even a duty to experiment with their political and social development paths. This experimenting contributes to the overall social experience of the humankind. Only history is in a position to judge what models turn out to be efficient, productive and fair and what models will find their place at the dump of human delusions. And history has a lot of means at its disposal to punish leaders, who believe that they possess a “one size fits all” model, which could successfully replace the existing diversity with an imposed universalism.
From our partner RIAC
The Chinese diplomatic force in the IAEA to confront Western leadership
At the level of international relations, through China’s presence in all the relevant international organizations, and its membership in all of the United Nations organizations, specifically in the International Atomic Energy Agency “IAEA”, China aims to play the role of the (international balancer), in light of its quest to maintain a certain level of competition with the United States of America politically and economically, this is in line with its desires to constantly play the role of the pole calling for (multipolarity and multilateral international pluralism through the Chinese political speeches of Chinese President “Xi Jinping”), in order to oppose American hegemony over the world and Washington’s policies to maintain its position as a single pole in the international community. China’s increase in its foreign investments, in order to enhance its economic hegemony over the world through its political and diplomatic tools with countries that have equal economic power with it in a number of (trade, scientific and technological issues, in addition to military and intelligence tools, as a reference for China’s new foreign political center).
We note that the patterns of Chinese foreign policy is (the pattern of dependence, which is based on the high level of foreign participation in all current global issues), to restrict the attempts of the United States of America to pass its decisions internationally, and therefore China is trying to enter the membership of all international organizations so that China’s foreign policies remain more comprehensive, broader and more effective in the global change, and to change all directions of these issues and control them in the United States, and this is one of its new political tools that serve its global expansion through the (Chinese Belt and Road Initiative).
In the same context, China focuses its external and competitive strength on its presence in effective international organizations, and rapprochement with the European Union, especially (France, Germany), despite not denying their relations with Washington, because of their strong influence in the global economy. In addition to China’s reliance on the plan of foreign and foreign investments in countries that influence American influence through the Belt and Road projects, as well as China’s resort to the import policy of many resources necessary to develop its economic capabilities from certain European countries to open influential relations with them, leading to (the Chinese strategy to obtain political support through the policies of alliances, consulates, representations, and its membership of international organizations), with the aim of influencing countries’ policies economically to pass important international decisions regarding the US challenge to China, such as: (the Iranian nuclear file, North Korea, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, etc.), to increase with this The level of external penetration of China economically and politically).
China is mainly aiming to increase its membership in international organizations and the International Atomic Energy Agency, to (create a new balance of power and get rid of unipolarity restrictions through the medium powers and small states that the international system prevails with real pluralism, instead of the current state of American unipolarity).
In my personal opinion, the countries of the Middle East may find in the rise of China and Russia, and perhaps other international powers to re-compete the United States, as a (real opportunity to advance the effects of the pluralism of the international system at the regional level, and this would create more space for movement and opposition or bargaining and flexibility of movement for all to confront the policies of American hegemony, according to Chinese planning with Russia), and this also works to alleviate those restrictions and American dictates, and perhaps the sanctions and pressures it imposes on opponents of its approach internationally.
The strategy of competition between China and the United States has become China’s long-term strategy, which is based on (the necessity of a heavy Chinese presence in all international organizations and forums, which allows China to communicate with various global powers and balance its relations with them compared to Washington), as well as diversifying the People’s Republic of China for its relations and distribution of its power among the competing countries, which allows China to show wide options on all important issues, and the most dangerous is that this Chinese presence, which (allows Beijing to prejudice the foundations of its relationship with the United States of America and the other various powers around the world).
China and Russia also aim to form an alliance into all international and regional organizations to change the current provocative approach of the American policies in their confrontation, especially those related to mobilization policies and American alliances against them around the world. The Chinese alliance with Russia was so clear with the (Russian Foreign Minister “Sergey Lavrov’s visit” to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, while on the other hand, both Kuwait and Qatar have received a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the CPC Central Committee “Yang Jiechi”).
On the other hand, China is among the Security Council countries that have the largest number of (Chinese peacekeeping forces around the world), and China is at the forefront of the (most contributing countries to the international peacekeeping budget, in addition to sending naval fleets to carry out maritime guard missions according to according to the UN Security Council resolutions), and therefore China may play an important role in establishing security in many countries in the world, and this is perhaps what China plans to ensure its use, in the event of a decline in American interest in the security of many regions in the world, within the framework of (the strategy of pressure of the American expenditures, retreat and withdrawal from many places around the world and devote its concern to the American interior issues and its worsening economic crises).
The point is worthy to be considered here, is the report issued in July 2021 by the (International Atomic Energy Agency), entitled “Nuclear reactors around the world”, in which he analyzed China’s plan to (establish the dream of nuclear sovereignty around the world by starting to build and establish about 11 reactors). There are other Chinese nuclear reactors under construction, as well as the (new Chinese planning to build other 29 nuclear reactors), while the International Atomic Energy Agency’s work report on the other hand indicated that the known total number of reactors that are actually in service, other than those planned for construction, and other reactors under construction, is up to About 50 Chinese nuclear reactors, a step that confirms that “China is clearly shifting towards nuclear energy in the production of electricity, and depends on it directly in its industrial renaissance during the coming period, especially as it is the number one country in the world that is expanding in the establishment of nuclear plants, followed by Russia, which plans to build other 20 new nuclear reactors, while it has 38 nuclear reactors in active service”. Some leaks indicate the presence of Chinese nuclear reactors, exercises and tests in the “Doklam Desert” region on the borders of “Xinjiang” province in northwest China.
It also notes that, from the reality of the report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency “IAEA”, its confirmation regarding (Chinese planning to become the first country in the world in the production of nuclear energy during the next ten years, in return for the decline in the share of the United States of America in nuclear reactors, which continues to the continuous decrease with the exit of new American numbers of reactors annually), as the future plan of the United States of America does not include the establishment of new reactors, which indicates that (the expansion of this type of energy tends towards China and Russia during the coming period, and these countries will have accumulated experiences, enabling them to dominate and control this new nuclear industry in various countries of the world, and this is what is actually common happening in the region). Knowing that its uses will be mainly peaceful and to serve the interests of peoples and countries, so we may witness the coming period intensifying the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in many files around the world to study them, inspect different regions and various other areas to ensure (their peaceful uses of nuclear energy in many development projects around the world).
Hence, we almost understand (the importance of the Chinese presence and presence and its membership in the International Atomic Energy Agency in the first place), given that it actually owns 50 nuclear reactors in service, and its contribution to the production of electricity and providing energy to one and a half billion citizens, and China also has new nuclear reactors under construction, so (China seeks to be near the International Atomic Energy Agency, to embarrass, restrict and limit the American influence on the one hand against Beijing’s allies, led by Iran and then North Korea. Therefore, China has developed a strategic plan in the coming years, which is based on the intensity of the Chinese international presence and passing its foreign policies and decisions with the help of its Russian ally internationally).
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