Circumstances are rapidly changing in the Middle Eastern region; new accords have been signing. Old rivals are unifying and emphasizing on building relationships in the region. Bilateral negotiations have been seen recently among UAE and Israel. Restricted diplomacy between the Arab and the Gulf states initiated after the 1991 Madrid conference on Arab-Israeli peace. In 1972, Shah Faisal of the KSA announced that the Jewish state is a permanent threat for all Arabs and their expansionist approach is destructive for the whole region. However, dynamics are rapidly altering after the Arab spring turbulence in 2011, growing Islamist movements in Egypt and threat of Iran were ultimate factors which compelled new generation leaders of the Arab world to enhance strategic cooperation with Israel and adopt a powerful regional perspective. Gulf monarchies and their politics feel a threat from rising Islamism, Iranian intervention and rise of political entities like Muslim brotherhood in the Middle Eastern politics. These elements of realism softened the stance of the Gulf States towards Israel. Both Israel and the Arab world have been striving to normalize relations since long. Credit goes to Donald Trump who is an utmost supporter of Israel and ally of Arab states as well. Western and American mainstream media is portraying this deal as a seismic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle Eastern region.
Along with other factors, Gulf leaders admire Israel’s economy and progress in technological sectors. Gulf leadership is taking this opportunity as a gateway to Israel’s economic markets and will assist in growing political, economic, diplomatic ties with the Jewish state. Nevertheless, Israel’s PM statement reflects that Israel has denied its neo-isolationist image in the region. Although Israel has temporarily suspended his extremely controversial plan of the annexation of Jordan valley areas and the west bank, this annexation plan was a significant agenda of the election campaign of Benjamin Netanyahu. Contrary to Gulf leaders, Arabs seem Israel as a usurper of Arab lands and consider the occupation of Palestine as illegal. Yousef Al Otaiba, UAE ambassador to the United States, an influential figure in Middle Eastern politics and retains good relations with western establishment had written an open letter to Israel’s public. In his open letter, he is striving on Israel’s public to make a protest against this illegal annexation of Jordan valley and west bank. According to him, it will cause political destabilization in Jordan where large numbers of Palestinian immigrants are inhabited.
Most important development among the whole scenario is upcoming elections in the United States. In the US and western world, this accord is pretended as a victory of US President Trump and his efforts for normalization of relations between Israel and the Gulf States. Joe Biden is rising as the principal opponent of president Trump in US politics. Trump’s popularity graph has somewhat declined due to his weakness of leadership in tackling Covid-19 crises and crises which had risen after the death of black George Floyd by American police. Several differences can be vividly seen in the policies of Trump and Biden. Trump is striving for victory in re-election. It is expected that Bahrain and Oman will follow UAE. Escalating tensions of USA and Gulf States with Tehran is a significant issue in geostrategic issues of the region. Encountered with conventional rivals, the Gulf States and Israel are focusing on common interests rather than differences. According to American media, this trilateral UAE-US-Israel coalition saw Iran as a regional menace.
As Iran is expanding its influence in the region via Iranian sponsored proxies,, Gulf States are taking this influence as a significant threat to their sovereignty and interests in the region. Simultaneously, the US and Israel have been proclaiming Iran as a terrorist state and their substantial adversary. Nexus of the Arab-Israel seems as a coalition against mutual rivals in the conflict-riven Middle East. Israeli PM Netanyahu has officially said that the Arab States are disintegrating and Iranian sponsored terrorist proxies are strengthening in the region. In his election campaign, Trump had expressed strong views of rivalry against Iran. Iran’s growing influence in Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, and Yemen is antagonistic to interests of the Gulf States. Division based on sects has deeply embedded in the roots of the Middle Eastern region. Growing tensions in Yemen are elaborating tactics of states via proxies. Subsequently, tensions grew to a new height between the US and Iran after the death of revolutionary guards General Qasem Soleimani. In this entire scenario, geopolitical and strategic alliances are altering rapidly in the region.
GDP growth of KSA, major Gulf state is declining as it has been reduced in preceding years. Negative growth in GDP is seen in the oil sector. The Gulf States have been relying on the oil industry, petrochemicals and petroleum. Heavy dependence on petrochemical and petroleum industry is straining and depleting natural resources. Shifting economy from an oil-dependent economy to technological one is a vision of the Gulf States. Owing to this, they want to expand economic and political ties with Israel.
Furthermore, multibillion-dollar investment has been announced by China in Iran is of great strategic and economic importance. Duration and perpetuation of newly arise strategic partnerships are unbeknownst yet; however, it demands insight and leadership in altering dynamics. How to react to these rapidly changing geopolitical realities is a real challenge for Pakistan. Owing to economic Interests with rising economic market India, KSA and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) have taken a stance of silence on illegal annexation of Kashmir. Instead, KSA is enhancing ties and investing in India. The strong reaction has been observed from Riyadh on Pakistan’s stance of thinking of withdrawal from OIC. In response, KSA demanded the return of one billion dollar loan from Pakistan. Due to escalating tension, the import of oil on deferred payments is jeopardizing. Pakistan’s refusal to become a part of the Yemen war was another reason behind this scenario. As Pakistan is highly dependent on Gulf State for economic interests, attempts are continuing to normalize relations with a close and old ally.
Turkey and Iran are condemning this bilateral accord and claiming it as the hypocrisy of the UAE. Pak-Turkey relations are growing, and Iran is getting close to China. While China is building economic ties with Iran, Pakistan can gain a lot from the situation by strengthening ties with neighbouring countries. Strengthening diplomatic, economic ties with neighbouring countries is mandatory for peace and progress in Pakistan and region. After UAE-Israel accord, there exists a segment in Pakistan which is a supporter of building diplomatic ties with Israel. Recently the KSA and Pakistan have denied reviving diplomatic ties with Israel as this acceptance can demolish the KSA status of leader of the Muslim world. This situation demands insightful leadership to take steps in broader interests of the country.
